机构：光大证券 研究员：陈彦彤/汪航宇/聂博雅 公司预计FY26Q2 整体净营收将在11.32 亿美元至11.63 亿美元之间，同比增长9%-12%，增速较Q1 有所 回升。公司维持FY26 全年净营收指引为51.45 亿美元至53.90 亿美元，同比增长5%-10%。此外，公司 宣布启动一项为期三年的股东回报计划，拟将不低于上一财年归母净利润的50%用于回馈股东，并已批 准派发1.9 亿美元现金股息及启动3 亿美元的股份回购计划，彰显管理层对未来发展的信心。 FY26Q1 经营利润持续提升，经营效率优化成果逐步显现。FY26Q1 公司Non-GAAP 经营利润为3.36 亿 美元，同比+11.3%。Non-GAAP 经营利润率为22.0%，同比提升1.0pct。利润率的提升主要得益于公司 在成本优化与运营效率提升方面的持续努力。尽管面临海外业务放缓的挑战，但公司通过审慎的产能扩 张策略、推进OMO 教学系统以及加大AI 技术在教育生态和内部运营中的应用，有效提升了整体运营效 率。展望未来，随着FY26Q2 收入加速增长，以及公司持续推进降本增效措施，预计经营利润有望继续 改善。 盈利预测、估值与评级：考虑到 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a steady growth in its core business for FY26Q1, with a revenue guidance for Q2 indicating an acceleration in growth compared to Q1 [4][5][6]. Group 1: Financial Performance - For FY26Q1, the company achieved a net revenue of $1.523 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.1% [4][5]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was $240,700, a decrease of 1.9% year-on-year, while the Non-GAAP net profit was $258 million, down 1.6% year-on-year [4][5]. - The Non-GAAP operating profit for FY26Q1 was $336 million, reflecting an 11.3% increase year-on-year, with an operating profit margin of 22.0%, up 1.0 percentage point [7]. Group 2: Business Segments - The overseas business segment saw a revenue increase of 1.0% for exam preparation and 2.0% for consulting, with growth rates slowing down [5]. - Domestic exam preparation for adults and university students experienced a robust growth of 14.4% year-on-year [5]. - New educational business revenue grew by 15.3% year-on-year, although the growth rate was impacted by intensified competition during the summer [5]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The company expects overall net revenue for FY26Q2 to be between $1.132 billion and $1.163 billion, indicating a year-on-year growth of 9%-12% [6]. - The full-year net revenue guidance for FY26 is maintained at $5.145 billion to $5.390 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 5%-10% [6]. - A three-year shareholder return plan has been initiated, with at least 50% of the previous fiscal year's net profit allocated for shareholder returns, including a cash dividend of $190 million and a $300 million share buyback plan [6]. Group 4: Operational Efficiency - The company has made significant strides in cost optimization and operational efficiency, which contributed to the improvement in profit margins despite challenges in overseas business [7][8]. - The implementation of an OMO teaching system and increased use of AI technology in the educational ecosystem and internal operations have effectively enhanced overall operational efficiency [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Everbright Securities indicates a downward revision of New Oriental-S (09901) net profit forecasts for FY26-28 due to intensified industry competition and increased business base, with projected profits of $442 million, $514 million, and $582 million respectively, each down by 8% [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In FY26Q1, New Oriental achieved net revenue of $1.523 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.1%, exceeding previous guidance [1] - The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of $240,700, a decrease of 1.9% year-on-year, while Non-GAAP net profit was $258 million, down 1.6% [1] - The company expects FY26Q2 overall net revenue to be between $1.132 billion and $1.163 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 9%-12% [2] Group 2: Business Segments - In the overseas business segment, exam preparation revenue grew by 1.0% and consulting revenue by 2.0%, with slower growth rates observed [1] - Domestic exam preparation for adults and university students saw a robust revenue increase of 14.4% year-on-year [1] - New educational business revenue grew by 15.3% year-on-year, although growth was impacted by increased competition from low-cost/free classes during the summer [1] Group 3: Operational Efficiency - Non-GAAP operating profit for FY26Q1 was $336 million, reflecting an 11.3% year-on-year increase, with an operating profit margin of 22.0%, up 1.0 percentage points [3] - The improvement in profit margin is attributed to ongoing efforts in cost optimization and operational efficiency [3] - The company is implementing a cautious capacity expansion strategy and enhancing the use of AI technology in its educational ecosystem and internal operations [3] Group 4: Shareholder Returns - The company announced a three-year shareholder return plan, committing to return at least 50% of the previous fiscal year's net profit to shareholders, including a cash dividend of $190 million and a $300 million share buyback plan [2]

公司预计FY26Q2整体净营收将在11.32亿美元至11.63亿美元之间，同比增长9%-12%，增速较Q1有所回 升。公司维持FY26全年净营收指引为51.45亿美元至53.90亿美元，同比增长5%-10%。此外，公司宣布 启动一项为期三年的股东回报计划，拟将不低于上一财年归母净利润的50%用于回馈股东，并已批准派 发1.9亿美元现金股息及启动3亿美元的股份回购计划，彰显管理层对未来发展的信心。 智通财经APP获悉，光大证券发布研报称，考虑到行业竞争加剧以及业务基数提升，下调新东方- S(09901)2026-2028财年归母净利润预测分别至4.42/5.14/5.82亿美元(分别下调8%/8%/8%)，对应2026- 2028财年EPS分别为0.28/0.33/0.37美元，当前股价对应PE分别为22x/19x/16x，公司为教育培训行业龙 头，行业需求仍较旺盛，该行维持"增持"评级。 光大证券主要观点如下： 事件：FY26Q1新东方实现净营收15.23亿美元，同比+6.1%;实现归母净利润24.07万美元，同比-1.9%;实 现Non–GAAP归母净利润2.58亿美元，同比-1.6%。FY26Q1核心业务 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [4][6]. Core Insights - The company reported a net revenue of $1.523 billion for FY26Q1, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.1%, exceeding previous guidance [2][3]. - The company expects FY26Q2 net revenue to be between $1.132 billion and $1.163 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9%-12% [3]. - A three-year shareholder return plan has been initiated, with at least 50% of the previous fiscal year's net profit allocated for shareholder returns, including a cash dividend of $190 million and a $300 million share buyback plan [3]. Revenue and Profitability - The core business showed steady growth, with the overseas examination preparation business growing by 1.0% and domestic examination preparation for adults and college students increasing by 14.4% [2]. - Non-GAAP operating profit for FY26Q1 was $336 million, up 11.3% year-on-year, with an operating profit margin of 22.0%, an increase of 1.0 percentage points [3]. Financial Forecasts - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for FY26 to FY28 downwards by 8%, now projecting $442 million, $514 million, and $582 million respectively [4]. - Corresponding EPS for FY26 to FY28 is expected to be $0.28, $0.33, and $0.37, with current P/E ratios of 22x, 19x, and 16x respectively [4].

Core Insights - New Oriental achieved net revenue of $1.243 billion in FY25Q4, a year-on-year increase of 9.4%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was $7.1 million, down 73.7% year-on-year [1] - The core education business remained stable, but revenue growth guidance for FY26Q1 has decreased [1][2] - The company expects FY26Q1 net revenue to be between $1.464 billion and $1.507 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 2%-5% [2] Revenue Breakdown - Excluding revenue from self-operated products and live e-commerce, FY25Q4 net revenue was $1.0885 billion, up 18.7% year-on-year, surpassing previous guidance [1] - Revenue from overseas exam preparation increased by 14.6%, while overseas consulting revenue rose by 8.2% in FY25Q4 [1] - Domestic exam preparation for adults and college students saw a year-on-year revenue increase of 17.0% in FY25Q4 [1] New Business Developments - Revenue from new educational services grew by 32.5% year-on-year in FY25Q4, with approximately 918,000 registrations and 255,000 active paying users for smart learning systems [2] - The number of operational outlets exceeded 1,300 by the end of FY25Q4, with expansion plans on track [2] Profitability and Margin Analysis - FY25Q4 operating profit margin was -0.7%, down from 0.9% in the same period last year, primarily due to a one-time goodwill impairment of $60.3 million in the kindergarten business [3] - Non-GAAP operating profit margin for FY25Q4 was 6.6%, an increase of 3.3 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The company anticipates that despite challenges in FY26Q1, profitability may still see year-on-year growth due to the turnaround of the live e-commerce segment and ongoing cost reduction efforts [3] Future Outlook - The company has announced a three-year shareholder return plan, intending to return 50% of the previous fiscal year's net profit to shareholders through dividends or buybacks [2] - Profit forecasts for FY26 and FY27 have been adjusted downwards to $481 million and $559 million, respectively, reflecting a conservative outlook due to macroeconomic pressures [3]

Core Viewpoint - New Oriental's FY25Q4 net revenue reached $1.243 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9.4%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was $7.1 million, a decrease of 73.7% [4] Group 1: Financial Performance - FY25Q4 core education business maintained stability with net revenue (excluding self-operated products and live e-commerce) at $1.0885 billion, up 18.7% year-on-year, exceeding previous guidance [5] - The company expects FY26Q1 overall net revenue to be between $1.464 billion and $1.507 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 2%-5% [6] - FY25Q4 operating profit margin was -0.7%, down from 0.9% in the same period last year, primarily due to a one-time goodwill impairment of $60.3 million in the kindergarten business [7] Group 2: Business Segments - In FY25Q4, the overseas examination preparation business revenue grew by 14.6%, and the overseas consulting business revenue increased by 8.2% [5] - The new education business saw a revenue increase of 32.5% year-on-year, with approximately 918,000 registrations and 255,000 active paying users for smart learning systems [5] - The company announced a three-year shareholder return plan, intending to return 50% of the previous fiscal year's net profit to shareholders through dividends or buybacks [6] Group 3: Future Outlook - Despite a significant slowdown in revenue growth for the overseas business and increased competition, the profitability from the Oriental Selection is expected to positively contribute to overall earnings [8] - The company aims to improve overall profit margins in FY26Q1 through cost reduction and efficiency enhancement measures [8]

Investment Rating - The report downgrades the investment rating of the company to "Accumulate" [1] Core Views - The company's FY25Q4 net revenue reached USD 1.243 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9.4%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was USD 7.1 million, a decrease of 73.7% [3][4] - The core education business showed steady growth, but the overseas and cultural tourism businesses negatively impacted profits [4][6] - The company expects FY26Q1 net revenue to be between USD 1.464 billion and USD 1.507 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 2%-5%, indicating a significant slowdown compared to previous guidance [5][7] Summary by Sections Revenue Performance - FY25Q4 net revenue (excluding self-operated products and live e-commerce) was USD 1.0885 billion, up 18.7% year-on-year, exceeding previous guidance [4] - The overseas examination preparation business revenue grew by 14.6%, and the overseas consulting business revenue increased by 8.2% [4] - Domestic examination preparation for adults and university students saw a revenue increase of 17.0% [4] Profitability - FY25Q4 operating profit margin was -0.7%, down from 0.9% in the same period last year, primarily due to a one-time goodwill impairment of USD 60.3 million in the kindergarten business [6] - Non-GAAP operating profit margin for FY25Q4 was 6.6%, an increase of 3.3 percentage points year-on-year [6] Financial Forecasts - The company has revised down its net profit forecasts for FY26 and FY27 to USD 481 million and USD 559 million, respectively, reflecting a 10% and 18% reduction [7][8] - The projected EPS for FY26, FY27, and FY28 are USD 0.29, USD 0.34, and USD 0.38, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 15x, 13x, and 12x [7][8]