机构：光大证券 研究员：陈彦彤/汪航宇/聂博雅 事件：FY26Q2 新东方实现净营收11.91 亿美元，同比+14.7%；实现归母净利润4545万美元，同比 +42.3%；实现Non–GAAP 归母净利润7290 万美元，同比+68.6%。 FY26Q2 核心业务多点开花，全年收入指引上调。 FY26Q2 经营利润大幅提升，经营效率优化成果显著。 FY26Q2 公司Non-GAAP 经营利润为8913 万美元，同比+206.9%。Non-GAAP 经营利润率为7.5%，同比 +4.7pcts，盈利能力大幅改善。利润率的提升主要得益于： 一是聚焦核心经营，未盲目扩张教学点，重点强化教学质量管控、优化市场费用投放；二是降本增效工 作稳步推进。公司降本增效分两阶段推进，第一阶段聚焦精简冗余成本，通过削减非必要市场开支、压 降房租、人员末位淘汰等举措实现；第二阶段主要通过组织架构调整实现规模效应，并依托AI 技术推 进人机替代，进一步降本提效。展望未来，随着后续收入持续增长，以及公司持续推进降本增效措施、 优化成本结构，预计经营利润将继续保持良好改善态势。 盈利预测、估值与评级：考虑到公司各业务发展势头向好，降本增效 ...

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 FY26Q2 公司 Non-GAAP 经营利润为 8913 万美元，同比+206.9%。Non-GAAP经营利润率为 7.5%，同比 +4.7pcts，盈利能力大幅改善。利润率的提升主要得益于：一是聚焦核心经营，未盲目扩张教学点，重点 强化教学质量管控、优化市场费用投放；二是降本增效工作稳步推进。公司降本增效分两阶段推进，第一 阶段聚焦精简 FY26Q2 新东方实现净营收 11.91 亿美元，同比+14.7%；实现归母净利润 4545万美元，同比+42.3%；实 现 Non–GAAP 归母净利润 7290 万美元，同比+68.6%。 FY26Q2 核心业务多点开花，全年收入指引上调 FY26Q2 公司净营收同比增长 14.7% ...

公司研究 FY26Q2 业绩超预期增长，全年收入指引上调彰显信心 ——新东方-S（9901.HK）FY26Q2 业绩点评 买入（上调） 当前价：44.70 港元 2026 年 1 月 29 日 作者 分析师：陈彦彤 执业证书编号：S0930518070002 021-52523689 chenyt@ebscn.com 分析师：汪航宇 执业证书编号：S0930523070002 021-52523174 wanghangyu@ebscn.com 分析师：聂博雅 执业证书编号：S0930522030003 021-52523808 nieboya@ebscn.com | 市场数据 | | | --- | --- | | 总股本(亿股) | 15.80 | | 总市值(亿港元)： | 706.39 | | 一年最低/最高(港元)： | 30.85/47.31 | | 近 3 月换手率： | 14.06% | 股价相对走势 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 25/1 25/2 25/3 25/4 25/5 25/6 25/7 25/8 25/9 25/10 25/11 25/12 26 ...

Core Insights - The company reported a 6% year-on-year revenue increase to $1.523 billion for Q1 of FY2026, exceeding expectations by 1% [1] - Adjusted operating profit was approximately $336 million, with an operating margin of 22%, reflecting a 1 percentage point year-on-year expansion [1] - Adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders was $258 million, corresponding to a net profit margin of 17% [1] Performance Highlights - The study abroad-related business performed better than expected, with preparatory and consulting revenues increasing by 1% and 2% year-on-year, compared to a previous forecast of -5% [1] - The college/adult education segment maintained a robust growth rate, with a 14% year-on-year revenue increase [1] - The K9 new business segment saw a 15% year-on-year revenue growth, with learning machines outperforming non-subject areas [1] - Non-subject training enrollment increased by 10% year-on-year to 530,000, while paid users of the intelligent learning system and devices rose by 40% year-on-year to 452,000 [1] - The number of teaching points reached 1,347, an increase of 29 points or 2% from the previous quarter, within the company's expansion pace [1] - The company announced a cash dividend of $190 million and a $300 million share repurchase plan, which is better than previous expectations [1] FY2026 Outlook - Management maintains the FY2026 group revenue guidance, expecting a year-on-year growth rate of 5-10%, with Q2 revenue growth projected between 9-12%, compared to a previous expectation of 9% [2] - Concerns regarding business growth are alleviated by improved retention rates in K12 business and product quality enhancements, which are expected to stabilize revenue growth [2] - The study abroad-related business may remain under pressure, but is expected to benefit from a projected over 25% year-on-year increase in youth language training revenue and expansion in non-English-speaking countries' consulting services [2] - Overall revenue growth for FY2026/27/28 is anticipated to exceed 10%, with a continued trend of profit margin expansion [2] Valuation - The company remains optimistic about the demand and growth prospects for K12 education-related businesses, with steady revenue growth and potential for profit margin optimization [2] - Despite recent impacts on the study abroad-related business, it continues to lead the industry [2] - Using the SOTP valuation method, the company assigns a 15x P/E ratio for K12 business and an 8x P/E ratio for study abroad business, with corresponding profit growth rates of +25% and -7% [2] - The target price has been raised to HKD 55 / USD 71 (EDU US/Buy) from HKD 46 / USD 59, maintaining a buy rating [2]

Company Research: New Oriental (EDU) - Adjusted operating profit margin improved, with Q1 FY26 net revenue at $1.52 billion, up 6.1% year-on-year, slightly exceeding guidance of $1.46 to $1.51 billion[6] - Non-GAAP operating profit reached $336 million, a year-on-year increase of 11.3%, with a Non-GAAP operating profit margin of 22.0%, up 1.0 percentage points[6] - The company plans to return at least 50% of the previous fiscal year's net profit to shareholders, with a total shareholder return plan of $490 million, including $190 million in cash dividends and $300 million in share buybacks[9] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - For FY26Q2, net revenue is expected to be between $1.132 billion and $1.163 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 9% to 12%[8] - FY26 total net revenue is projected to be between $5.145 billion and $5.39 billion, indicating a growth of 5% to 10%[8] - Target price adjusted to $74.50, maintaining a "Buy" rating, based on a 25x PE for FY26E net profit[10] Company Research: China Shenhua (1088) - For the first three quarters of 2025, revenue was CNY 213.15 billion, down 16.6% year-on-year, with net profit attributable to shareholders at CNY 41.37 billion, a decrease of 13.8%[15] - Coal sales volume decreased by 8.4% to 316.5 million tons, with Q3 revenue at CNY 75.04 billion, down 13.1% year-on-year[16] - Despite challenges, the company maintained a strong cost control, with unit production costs down 3.1% year-on-year[16] Future Outlook and Valuation - Target price set at HKD 47.70, with a "Buy" rating, reflecting a potential upside of 15.1% from the current price[18] - Expected net profit for 2025-2027 is projected at CNY 58.8 billion, CNY 58.7 billion, and CNY 58.9 billion respectively[18] - The company is viewed as a "cash cow" with a generous dividend policy, providing a stable cash return to investors[18]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to New Oriental Education Technology (9901 HK) with a target price of HKD 55.00, indicating a potential upside of 19.9% from the current price of HKD 45.88 [4][8][15]. Core Insights - The report highlights that K12 education may accelerate, boosting shareholder returns and enhancing confidence in the company's growth prospects [2]. - Financial forecasts indicate a revenue growth trajectory, with expected revenues of USD 4.9 billion in 2025, growing to USD 6.875 billion by 2028, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 12% [3][16]. - The net profit is projected to increase from USD 372 million in 2025 to USD 792 million by 2028, with a notable increase in earnings per share (EPS) from USD 0.32 in 2025 to USD 0.45 in 2028 [3][16]. Financial Overview - Revenue (in million USD) is forecasted as follows: - 2024: 4,314 - 2025: 4,900 - 2026E: 5,413 - 2027E: 6,136 - 2028E: 6,875 - Year-on-year growth rates are expected to be 43.9% in 2024, 13.6% in 2025, and gradually declining to 12.0% by 2028 [3][16]. - Net profit (in million USD) projections are: - 2024: 310 - 2025: 372 - 2026E: 428 - 2027E: 481 - 2028E: 792 [3][16]. Valuation - The report employs a Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) valuation method, assigning a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 15x for K12 business and 8x for study abroad business, reflecting expected profit growth rates of +25% and -7% respectively [7][8]. - The target price was adjusted upwards to HKD 55.00 from a previous HKD 46.00, maintaining a "Buy" rating based on the strong demand and growth outlook for K12 education services [7][8].

Core Insights - New Oriental achieved net revenue of $1.523 billion in FY26Q1, a year-on-year increase of 6.1%, exceeding previous guidance [1] - The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of $240,700, a decrease of 1.9% year-on-year, while Non-GAAP net profit was $258 million, down 1.6% [1] - The company expects FY26Q2 net revenue to be between $1.132 billion and $1.163 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 9%-12% [2] Business Performance - The overseas business segment saw revenue growth of 1.0% for exam preparation and 2.0% for consulting, with slower growth rates [1] - Domestic exam preparation for adults and college students grew by 14.4%, indicating strong performance [1] - New educational business revenue increased by 15.3%, although growth was impacted by intensified competition during the summer [1] Financial Guidance and Shareholder Returns - The company maintains its full-year net revenue guidance for FY26 at $5.145 billion to $5.390 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5%-10% [2] - A three-year shareholder return plan has been initiated, committing at least 50% of the previous fiscal year's net profit to shareholder returns, including a $190 million cash dividend and a $300 million share buyback [2] Operational Efficiency - Non-GAAP operating profit for FY26Q1 was $336 million, up 11.3% year-on-year, with an operating profit margin of 22.0%, an increase of 1.0 percentage points [2] - The improvement in profit margins is attributed to ongoing cost optimization and enhanced operational efficiency [2] - The company is focusing on prudent capacity expansion, advancing the OMO teaching system, and increasing the application of AI technology to improve overall operational efficiency [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for FY26-28 to $442 million, $514 million, and $582 million, respectively, each down by 8% [3] - Corresponding EPS for FY26-28 is projected at $0.28, $0.33, and $0.37, with current stock prices reflecting PE ratios of 22x, 19x, and 16x [3] - The company remains a leader in the education and training industry, with strong demand persisting [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a steady growth in its core business for FY26Q1, with a revenue guidance for Q2 indicating an acceleration in growth compared to Q1 [4][5][6]. Group 1: Financial Performance - For FY26Q1, the company achieved a net revenue of $1.523 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.1% [4][5]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was $240,700, a decrease of 1.9% year-on-year, while the Non-GAAP net profit was $258 million, down 1.6% year-on-year [4][5]. - The Non-GAAP operating profit for FY26Q1 was $336 million, reflecting an 11.3% increase year-on-year, with an operating profit margin of 22.0%, up 1.0 percentage point [7]. Group 2: Business Segments - The overseas business segment saw a revenue increase of 1.0% for exam preparation and 2.0% for consulting, with growth rates slowing down [5]. - Domestic exam preparation for adults and university students experienced a robust growth of 14.4% year-on-year [5]. - New educational business revenue grew by 15.3% year-on-year, although the growth rate was impacted by intensified competition during the summer [5]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The company expects overall net revenue for FY26Q2 to be between $1.132 billion and $1.163 billion, indicating a year-on-year growth of 9%-12% [6]. - The full-year net revenue guidance for FY26 is maintained at $5.145 billion to $5.390 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 5%-10% [6]. - A three-year shareholder return plan has been initiated, with at least 50% of the previous fiscal year's net profit allocated for shareholder returns, including a cash dividend of $190 million and a $300 million share buyback plan [6]. Group 4: Operational Efficiency - The company has made significant strides in cost optimization and operational efficiency, which contributed to the improvement in profit margins despite challenges in overseas business [7][8]. - The implementation of an OMO teaching system and increased use of AI technology in the educational ecosystem and internal operations have effectively enhanced overall operational efficiency [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Everbright Securities indicates a downward revision of New Oriental-S (09901) net profit forecasts for FY26-28 due to intensified industry competition and increased business base, with projected profits of $442 million, $514 million, and $582 million respectively, each down by 8% [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In FY26Q1, New Oriental achieved net revenue of $1.523 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.1%, exceeding previous guidance [1] - The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of $240,700, a decrease of 1.9% year-on-year, while Non-GAAP net profit was $258 million, down 1.6% [1] - The company expects FY26Q2 overall net revenue to be between $1.132 billion and $1.163 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 9%-12% [2] Group 2: Business Segments - In the overseas business segment, exam preparation revenue grew by 1.0% and consulting revenue by 2.0%, with slower growth rates observed [1] - Domestic exam preparation for adults and university students saw a robust revenue increase of 14.4% year-on-year [1] - New educational business revenue grew by 15.3% year-on-year, although growth was impacted by increased competition from low-cost/free classes during the summer [1] Group 3: Operational Efficiency - Non-GAAP operating profit for FY26Q1 was $336 million, reflecting an 11.3% year-on-year increase, with an operating profit margin of 22.0%, up 1.0 percentage points [3] - The improvement in profit margin is attributed to ongoing efforts in cost optimization and operational efficiency [3] - The company is implementing a cautious capacity expansion strategy and enhancing the use of AI technology in its educational ecosystem and internal operations [3] Group 4: Shareholder Returns - The company announced a three-year shareholder return plan, committing to return at least 50% of the previous fiscal year's net profit to shareholders, including a cash dividend of $190 million and a $300 million share buyback plan [2]

Core Viewpoint - Company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for New Oriental-S (09901) for FY26-28 down by 8% to $4.42 billion, $5.14 billion, and $5.82 billion respectively, while maintaining an "Overweight" rating due to strong industry demand despite increased competition [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In FY26Q1, the company achieved net revenue of $15.23 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.1%, exceeding previous guidance [2][3] - The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of $240,700, a decrease of 1.9% year-on-year, while Non-GAAP net profit was $258 million, down 1.6% [2] - The company expects FY26Q2 net revenue to be between $11.32 billion and $11.63 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 9%-12% [4] Group 2: Business Segments - The overseas examination preparation business saw a revenue increase of 1.0%, while the overseas consulting business grew by 2.0%, indicating a slowdown in growth [3] - Domestic examination preparation for adults and university students experienced a robust revenue growth of 14.4% [3] - New educational business revenue grew by 15.3%, although growth has slowed due to increased competition from low-cost/free classes during the summer [3] Group 3: Operational Efficiency - Non-GAAP operating profit for FY26Q1 was $336 million, an increase of 11.3% year-on-year, with an operating profit margin of 22.0%, up 1.0 percentage point [5] - The improvement in profit margin is attributed to ongoing efforts in cost optimization and operational efficiency [5] - The company is implementing a three-year shareholder return plan, committing at least 50% of the previous fiscal year's net profit to shareholder returns, including a $190 million cash dividend and a $300 million share buyback plan [4]