Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the shipping sector, expecting a strong start in 2026, particularly for companies like ST Song, China Shipbuilding, and China Power [5]. Core Insights - The shipping industry has seen improvements in new ship orders and pricing since October, with expectations for a strong performance in 2026. The report highlights the potential for a seasonal price increase in January, particularly in the oil and bulk cargo sectors [5]. - The report emphasizes the resilience of the railway and highway freight volumes, with steady growth observed. Data from the Ministry of Transport shows a slight decrease in railway freight but an increase in highway truck traffic [5][6]. - The airline industry is at a turning point, with expectations for significant improvements in airline profitability due to supply constraints and increasing passenger volumes [5]. - The express delivery sector is entering a new phase of competition, with three potential scenarios outlined for future profitability and market dynamics [5]. Summary by Sections Shipping Sector - New ship orders and pricing have improved since October, with expectations for a strong performance in 2026. Companies like ST Song, China Shipbuilding, and China Power are highlighted as key players [5]. - The report notes a significant drop in VLCC rates, with a 34.4% decrease observed on December 24, while crude oil tanker rates showed a 7.6% increase due to supply constraints [5]. Railway and Highway - Railway freight volume was reported at 78.37 million tons, a 1.96% decrease week-on-week, while highway truck traffic increased by 2.02% to 55.44 million vehicles [5][6]. Airline Industry - The report suggests that the airline industry is poised for a golden era, with supply constraints and increased international travel expected to enhance profitability [5]. Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is undergoing a transformation, with three scenarios proposed for future market dynamics, focusing on price recovery and potential mergers [5]. Overall Transportation Index - The transportation sector index rose by 1.37%, underperforming compared to the Shanghai Composite Index, which increased by 1.95% [6].

交通运输 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 行 业 及 产 业 范晨轩 A0230525070003 fancx@swsresearch.com 闫海 A0230519010004 yanhai@swsresearch.com 罗石 A0230524080012 luoshi@swsresearch.com 严天鹏 A0230524090004 yantp@swsresearch.com 王晨鉴 A0230525030001 wangcj@swsresearch.com 王易 A0230525050001 wangyi@swsresearch.com 张慧 A0230524100001 zhanghui@swsresearch.com 王凯婕 A0230525110001 wangkj@swsresearch.com 研究支持 郑逸欢 A0230124010001 zhengyh@swsresearch.com 联系人 范晨轩 A0230525070003 fancx@swsresearch.com 2025 年 12 月 28 日 油散进入淡季布局窗口，船舶板 ...

Group 1 - The cost of chartering Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) has surged to its highest level in over five years, driven by buyers seeking alternatives to sanctioned Russian oil and increased supply from Middle Eastern and U.S. producers [1] - The benchmark freight rate for VLCCs transporting oil from the Middle East to China rose to nearly $137,000 per day, marking a 576% increase year-to-date and the highest level since April 2020 [1] - A broader index covering multiple VLCC routes also reached $116,400 per day, setting a new five-year high [1] Group 2 - The increase in VLCC bookings is attributed to U.S. sanctions on Russian oil companies, which took effect last week, prompting buyers, particularly from India and China, to seek alternative suppliers [4] - Analysts noted that the rise in rates aligns with increased production from the U.S. and OPEC+ countries, especially Middle Eastern producers preparing to offer more crude oil to buyers [4] - The surge in VLCC rates has also benefited the entire tanker fleet, with smaller vessels experiencing higher earnings as Suezmax tankers have entered the Middle East to transport cargo typically handled by VLCCs [4]

Group 1 - DH Shipbuilding reported consolidated revenue of 296 billion KRW (approximately 1.53 billion RMB) in Q2, a year-on-year increase of 16.7% [1] - The company achieved an operating profit of 62.5 billion KRW (approximately 320 million RMB) in Q2, representing a year-on-year growth of 84.4% [1] - For the first half of the year, DH Shipbuilding accumulated revenue of 603.7 billion KRW (approximately 3.12 billion RMB) and an operating profit of 132.2 billion KRW (approximately 680 million RMB), with an operating margin of 21.9% [1] Group 2 - Since being acquired by KH Investment Group in 2022, DH Shipbuilding has implemented strategies focused on high-value-added vessels, internalizing external manufacturing segments, maximizing equipment efficiency, and fine-tuning cost management, leading to improved revenue and profitability [3] - The company has stabilized the delivery of its main vessel types at a rate of one vessel per month in the first half of the year, with plans to start constructing high-value-added vessels like oil tankers in the second half [3] - DH Shipbuilding aims to maintain its industry-leading operating profit margin and establish itself as a competitive shipyard in the global market [3] Group 3 - In 2023, DH Shipbuilding received orders for two Suezmax oil tankers from Greek shipping company Sun Enterprises, with a total order value of approximately 180 million USD, expected to be delivered in Q1 2027 [4]

Core Viewpoint - Scorpio Tankers reported a significant decline in net profit for Q2 2025, reflecting the impact of geopolitical uncertainties on the shipping industry, while maintaining a cautious outlook and announcing a quarterly dividend [1][3]. Financial Performance - For Q2 2025, Scorpio Tankers achieved revenue of $230.2 million, a year-over-year decrease of 39.5% but a quarter-over-quarter increase of 7.6% [3][4]. - Operating profit for the same period was $79.1 million, down 68.8% year-over-year, while adjusted EBITDA was $144.5 million, reflecting a 48.0% decline [3][4]. - Net profit reached $73.5 million, a decrease of 67.7% year-over-year but an increase of 26.3% from the previous quarter [3][4]. Fleet Performance - The average daily Time Charter Equivalent (TCE) for the fleet in Q2 2025 was $25,569, down 34.1% year-over-year but up 6.7% quarter-over-quarter [3][5]. - The daily TCE for the LR2 fleet was $32,674, down 30.7% year-over-year; for the MR fleet, it was $20,681, down 41.9%; and for the Handymax fleet, it was $22,595, down 19.3% [3][5]. Dividend and Shareholding - The board announced a quarterly cash dividend of $0.40 per share [1]. - In Q2 2025, Scorpio Tankers sold 2.745 million shares of DHT at an average price of $12.07 per share, realizing part of the gains, and currently holds approximately 8.832 million shares of DHT, representing about 5.5% of the issued common stock [8]. Future Outlook - For Q3 2025, Scorpio Tankers anticipates the spot market day rates for the LR2 fleet to reach $31,000, with 47% of operational day income locked in; for the MR fleet, the expected rate is $22,000 with 45% locked in; and for the Handymax fleet, $19,000 with 33% locked in [8].