行业研究 2、VLCC 现货运价冲高至 20 万，期租租金涨至 10 万。本周克拉克森 VLCC- TCE 指数 20.0 万美元，周环比+40.1%；其中，中东-中国航线报于 22.3 万美 元/天，周环比+42%；西非-中国航线报于 18.4 万美元/天，周环比+39%；美湾 -中国航线报于 13.3 万美元/天，周环比+35%。一年期 VLCC 期租价格也继续 涨至 10 万美元/天，周环比+9%。 3、投资建议：此前报告我们提出，三大因素致 VLCC 市场正面临近乎空前的 高涨情绪：1）美伊冲突局势骤然升级，或推升航运资产风险溢价；2）长锦大 举"扫货"，一跃成为全球最大 VLCC 经营商，显著提振市场情绪与信心，船 东集中度提升有望增强议价能力；3）委内瑞拉原油转向合规市场、印度承诺 停止购买俄油、欧盟提议对俄实施全面海上服务禁令，制裁强化增加合规贸易 需求。我们继续强调年度策略观点，看好油运市场上行景气，行业供给端持续 真空（今年少量 VLCC 交付的影响有限），需求催化仍待兑现，运价上涨弹性 充分，继续推荐油轮板块，中远海能 H/A、招商轮船、招商南油。 （二）快递：反内卷延续，行业件量增速好于 ...

行业研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 一、聚焦：美伊冲突推升航运资产风险溢价，快递反内卷延续 （一）油运：美伊冲突局势骤然升级，助推航运资产风险溢价 1、美伊冲突局势升级，霍尔木兹海峡或成为全球能源和航运市场关注的焦点。 克拉克森研究统计，全球约 11%的海运贸易量需经由霍尔木兹海峡，其中包括 34%的石油出口、30%的 LPG 出口、20%的 LNG 贸易、18%的化学品贸易 和 7%的汽车贸易，集装箱和干散货贸易占比分别为 3%和 2%。若其运输关 闭或中断将对全球能源和航运市场产生重大影响，例如导致能源价格飙升，海 运贸易结构和贸易流向潜在改变。 2、VLCC 现货运价冲高至 20 万，期租租金涨至 10 万。本周克拉克森 VLCC- TCE 指数 20.0 万美元，周环比+40.1%；其中，中东-中国航线报于 22.3 万美 元/天，周环比+42%；西非-中国航线报于 18.4 万美元/天，周环比+39%；美湾 -中国航线报于 13.3 万美元/天，周环比+35%。一年期 VLCC 期租价格也继续 涨至 10 万美元/天，周环比+9%。 3、投资建议：此前报告我们提出，三大因素致 VLCC 市场正面临近乎 ...

今年2月VLCC市场表现，创下历年同期之最。 据贸易风报道，希腊知名船东Adam Polemis旗下的New Shipping于周四（2月26日）达成一笔亮眼交易。其租出的32万载重吨"New Giant"号（建于2016 年）日租金高达269,000美元，创下本轮运价飙升以来的最高单日租金纪录。 这一租金水平已超越另一希腊知名船东George Economou控制的TMS Tankers公司旗下"Solana"号日前创下的纪录。这艘29.8万载重吨的VLCC（建于2010 年）由盛虹新加坡公司（ShengHong Petrochemical International）租用，执行中东湾至中国航线，日租金为262,000美元。 周三（2月25日）晚间，据Tankers International数据显示，壳牌近日转租一艘30万载重吨的VLCC，承租方为中国联合石化旗下联合石化英国有限公司，日 租金高达18万美元。据悉，该船为"Advantage Vital"号（建于2023年），隶属于瑞士Advantage Tankers公司。 Advantage Tankers首席执行官Tugrul Tokgoz表示："这 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the shipping industry, indicating an expectation of growth exceeding the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [6]. Core Insights - The VLCC market is experiencing unprecedented high sentiment driven by geopolitical risk premiums, aggressive capacity expansion by Changjin Shipping, and strengthened sanctions [1][9]. - The geopolitical situation between the US and Iran continues to elevate risk premiums, with Brent crude oil futures reaching $71.76 per barrel, a week-on-week increase of 5.9% [2][19]. - Changjin Shipping has rapidly expanded its fleet, becoming the largest VLCC operator globally, controlling 118 VLCCs, which corresponds to a market share of 16% [2][20][21]. - Strengthened sanctions are increasing the demand for compliant trade, with Venezuela's oil shifting towards compliant markets and India committing to stop purchasing Russian oil, which could add 1% to global tanker trade [3][39]. - The EU's proposal for a comprehensive ban on maritime services for Russian oil could necessitate the transfer of more compliant vessels into shadow fleets, impacting supply dynamics [4][43]. Summary by Sections Market Review - VLCC rates have surged to their highest levels in nearly a decade, with the Clarksons VLCC-TCE reaching $142,000 per day, a week-on-week increase of 24.5% [9][12]. - The stock performance of tanker companies has been strong, with notable increases during the holiday period [16]. Geopolitical Factors - The ongoing US-Iran negotiations have not yielded clear outcomes, maintaining military tensions and affecting oil transport routes, particularly in the Strait of Hormuz [2][19]. - Changjin Shipping's aggressive market entry reflects confidence in the tanker market's high profitability, with a significant increase in the concentration of top VLCC owners [21]. Sanctions and Compliance - The report highlights a shift in the oil market towards compliance due to increased enforcement of sanctions, with Venezuela's oil exports moving towards compliant channels [3][38]. - The EU's proposed ban on maritime services for Russian oil could lead to a significant increase in the demand for compliant vessels [4][43]. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes a bullish outlook for the oil transportation market, with expectations of continued demand growth and limited supply, recommending specific companies within the sector [5][46].

2026-02-12 摘要 VLOC 即期运价维持高位，一年期租金大幅上涨，反映船东对 2026 年 市场乐观预期。地缘政治风险，如美伊关系紧张，可能导致运价短期内 突破 15-20 万美元，长期僵持或制裁将稳步推升运价。 俄乌冲突加剧欧盟对俄海运禁令，增加俄油影子船队运营难度，收缩合 规船队运力，利好阿芙拉型和苏伊士型油轮市场，运价有望进一步上行。 印度在美国压力下减少俄罗斯原油进口，转向美国和委内瑞拉，提升合 规远洋运输需求。12 月印度从俄罗斯进口原油量减少，未来或逐步转向 合规市场。 影子船队面临生存空间缩小、运营难度加大的挑战，受制裁邮轮承担全 球原油出口的重要比例，但高昂的维修费用和扣船风险使其运营风险增 加。 人民币国际化进程加速，沙特阿美对华原油出口人民币结算比例已达 45%，中俄本币结算比例超 90%，推动大宗商品人民币结算，或将挑 战美元主导地位。 Q&A 目前游轮行业的市场状况如何？ 油轮跟踪：美伊局势僵持，行业供给脆弱 20260212 游轮行业当前处于一个非常高景气的状态，未来发展有可能大概率超过此前预 期。近期发生了两个重要变化：地缘局势的升级和行业集中度的大幅提升，这 些因素将显 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For the fourth quarter, the company reported revenues of $176 million and an EBITDA-equivalent cash flow of $109 million, with a total EBITDA of $450 million over the past 12 months, indicating strong operational stability [3][14] - The net result for the quarter was a loss of approximately $4.7 million or $0.04 per share, impacted by non-recurring and non-cash items [16] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Charter revenue from the fleet was approximately $176 million, with the container fleet contributing around $81 million, the car carrier fleet generating approximately $26 million, and the tanker fleet generating about $42 million [14][15] - The overall utilization of the shipping fleet in Q4 was about 98.6%, with adjusted utilization at 99.8% [12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted a significant strengthening in the tanker market, with the Suezmax segment expected to benefit from high charter rates due to correlations with the VLCC market [8][25] - The market for secondhand vessels is currently strong, with broker reports indicating a modern Suezmax tanker could command rates in the high $40,000s to over $60,000 per day [36] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to build a diversified, high-quality fleet and has secured long-term agreements with strong counterparties, enhancing its charter backlog to approximately $3.7 billion [3][9] - The company is focused on investing in efficiency upgrades and exploring new long-term charter opportunities, particularly in the tanker market [4][7] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about securing new employment for the Hercules rig, citing recent industry consolidations and increasing demand for premium rigs [9][42] - The company remains disciplined in its approach to capital deployment, focusing on sustainable cash flows and long-term contracts [30][31] Other Important Information - The company declared its 88th consecutive dividend of $0.20 per share, representing a dividend yield of around 9% [9][17] - The company has a solid liquidity position with cash and cash equivalents totaling approximately $151 million and an additional $46 million available on credit facilities [16][17] Q&A Session Questions and Answers Question: How is the company thinking about the Suezmax vessels given the strong crude tanker spot market? - Management finds the Suezmax market interesting and is looking for long-term charters while also benefiting from the current spot market [20][25] Question: What is the outlook for the dividend over the next 12 months? - Management indicated that the board does not guide on dividends but emphasized the importance of sustainable cash flows and disciplined capital deployment [28][31] Question: What was the rate on the previous contract for the terminated charters? - The previous charter rates for the sold vessels were around $27,000 per day, and the company sold them for $57 million each [35][36] Question: What is the status of the Hercules rig? - The Hercules rig has been idle since November 2024, but management sees signs of improving market dynamics and potential employment opportunities [42] Question: What is the size of the new rig financing facility? - The new financing facility for the Hercules rig is expected to be in the amount of $100 million [48]

Group 1: Market Overview - The Middle East MR freight rates experienced a mild increase over the weekend, with the TC17 35kt Middle East/East Africa route index rising to WS230, an increase of 10 points [9] - In the UK-Europe market, MR freight rates saw a significant decline, with the TC2 37kt ARA/US Atlantic Coast route index dropping by 12.5 points to WS136, and the Baltic round trip TCE decreasing by 15% to slightly above $14,000 per day [9] - The US Gulf MR freight rates continued to decline, with the TC14 38kt US Gulf/UK-Europe route falling from WS179 to WS166, and the Baltic round trip TCE dropping from $24,100 to $21,600 per day [9] Group 2: Specific Vessel Types - The Capesize market showed a notable decline, with the Baltic Capesize route (5TC) dropping from $41,571 to $30,731, indicating increasing freight rate pressure [1] - The Panamax market started weakly, particularly in the Atlantic, with the Baltic Panamax route (5TC) averaging $15,194, reflecting limited activity [2] - The Supramax market faced challenges, with the Atlantic and Pacific markets both under pressure, and notable transactions included a 38,000 dwt vessel from Rio de Janeiro to the East Coast of Mexico at $21,500 [4] Group 3: Oil Tanker Market - The LR2 market in the Middle East remained stable, with the TC1 75kt Middle East/Japan route index holding at WS155, corresponding to a TCE of approximately $37,000-$39,000 per day [5][6] - The VLCC market remained stable across all Baltic routes, with the Middle East Gulf to China route (TD3C, 270,000 tons) rate increasing to WS125.78, corresponding to a TCE of $122,676 per day [12] - The Suezmax market showed overall stability, with the Nigeria to UK Continent route (TD20, 130,000 tons) maintaining a rate of WS126, corresponding to a TCE of approximately $61,400 per day [13] Group 4: LNG and LPG Markets - The LNG market softened, with major route rates adjusting after a strong two-month increase, particularly on the BLNG2 US Gulf-Europe route, which saw a significant drop of $16,800 to $115,000 per day [17] - The LPG market exhibited a divergence, with the Eastern market under pressure and the Western market showing increased activity, leading to higher rates on routes such as the Houston-Far East route, which rose by $7.83 to $129.50 [18]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the oil tanker sector, indicating a favorable outlook for 2026 [1][2]. Core Insights - VLCC freight rates have continued to rise, reaching a peak of $126,000 per day on November 21, 2025, and slightly decreasing to $122,000 per day by November 28, 2025 [1][11]. - The report anticipates sustained demand for oil transportation due to global crude oil production increases and ongoing sanctions affecting non-compliant oil trade [2][22]. - The supply-side dynamics remain stable, with stricter environmental policies countering the limited new ship deliveries [25][26]. Industry Data Tracking - In the aviation sector, domestic passenger volume increased by 5.7% year-on-year, with an average ticket price rise of 3.0% [8][27]. - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) rose by 12.5% week-on-week, indicating a positive trend in shipping rates [43][47]. - The report notes a slight decline in the transportation sector, with a 0.5% drop in the transportation index, underperforming against the CSI 300 index by 2.1 percentage points [62][63]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong earnings elasticity and dividend value, particularly in the oil and air transport sectors [3][4]. - Specific recommendations include COSCO Shipping Energy, China Merchants Energy Shipping, and China Merchants Jinling Shipyard, highlighting their potential for growth in the current market environment [26][22].

Core Viewpoint - Nordic American Tankers (NAT) reported a significant increase in Suezmax tanker day rates, nearing $100,000, following seasonal weakness, indicating a positive outlook for cash accumulation in Q4 2025 [1][3] Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, NAT achieved revenue of $45.687 million, a 13.8% increase quarter-over-quarter but a 12.2% decrease year-over-year [4] - EBITDA for Q3 2025 was $21.381 million, down 6.9% from Q2 2025 and down 29.8% from Q3 2024 [4] - Operating profit for Q3 2025 was $6.784 million, reflecting a 10.2% decrease quarter-over-quarter and a 58.2% decrease year-over-year [4] - The net loss for Q3 2025 was $2.781 million, a significant increase in losses compared to the previous quarter [4] Year-to-Date Performance - For the first nine months of 2025, NAT reported total revenue of $123.785 million, a decrease of 30.7% compared to the same period in 2024 [4] - Year-to-date operating profit was $25.184 million, down 63.3% year-over-year [4] - The net profit for the first nine months of 2025 was $0.611 million, a drastic decline of 98.7% compared to the same period in 2024 [4] Fleet and Future Plans - NAT has signed a Letter of Intent (LOI) with a South Korean shipyard to construct two Suezmax tankers at a price of $86 million each, with delivery expected in the second half of 2028 [5] - The company operates a fleet of 20 Suezmax tankers, with an average TCE of $27,490 per day in Q3 2025 [5] Market Outlook - The global demand for oil remains strong, particularly in emerging economies, and OPEC's continued production increases are favorable for the tanker market [7] - As of June 30, 2025, there are 600 Suezmax tankers globally, with 120 expected to be delivered over the next four years, which is 20% of the current fleet [7] - NAT, being the only publicly listed company focused solely on Suezmax tankers, anticipates a strong tanker market in the coming years [7]

Group 1 - The cost of chartering Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) has surged to its highest level in over five years, driven by buyers seeking alternatives to sanctioned Russian oil and increased supply from Middle Eastern and U.S. producers [1] - The benchmark freight rate for VLCCs transporting oil from the Middle East to China rose to nearly $137,000 per day, marking a 576% increase year-to-date and the highest level since April 2020 [1] - A broader index covering multiple VLCC routes also reached $116,400 per day, setting a new five-year high [1] Group 2 - The increase in VLCC bookings is attributed to U.S. sanctions on Russian oil companies, which took effect last week, prompting buyers, particularly from India and China, to seek alternative suppliers [4] - Analysts noted that the rise in rates aligns with increased production from the U.S. and OPEC+ countries, especially Middle Eastern producers preparing to offer more crude oil to buyers [4] - The surge in VLCC rates has also benefited the entire tanker fleet, with smaller vessels experiencing higher earnings as Suezmax tankers have entered the Middle East to transport cargo typically handled by VLCCs [4]