深圳指数亦连跌5个月，最新一个月深圳指数报94.45，环比跌1.13%。深圳7月份二手成交微升3%，但 一手欠缺焦点新盘，成交量环比跌24%，二手成交量则微升3%。 香港方面，不论以人民币或港币计价的7月份香港指数皆录得逾1%的升幅。 陈永杰指，7月份香港受多项利好消息带动，如港股高开、按息低位徘徊、租金创新高、贸易战缓和 等，令入市气氛回暖，一二手成交增多。8月份仍是租赁旺季，租金具条件再创新高，料买楼收租个案 将持续增加，楼价有望见底回升。 智通财经APP获悉，2025年7月中原大湾区指数报92.66点，结束了指数6连跌，环比微升0.05%，但指数 仍低于93点，属7年半以来的第二低。四大中心城市指数：广州、深圳及澳门续跌，在香港指数升逾1% 的带动下，令中原大湾区指数于7月份录得升幅。 总体看，7月份中原大湾区12个指数中，仍是录得跌幅的城市多于录得升幅的，8个报跌，跌幅由0.79% 至1.85%不等，升幅的城市4个，上升幅度由0.05%至8.65%。 中原地产亚太区副主席兼住宅部总裁陈永杰表示，7月份大湾区城市缺乏重磅好消息，加上暑假的影响 下，属传统的淡季，看楼量及成交量皆见下跌。四大中心城市的广州 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the real estate industry [4] Core Insights - The relationship between housing prices and consumption has changed significantly since 2018, with a notable weakening of correlation post-2018 [9][14] - The report identifies two layers of analysis regarding the relationship between housing prices and consumption: a shallow layer influenced by income and a deeper layer concerning the ability of housing prices to shift the demand curve [22][62] - The efficiency of the real estate sector's impact on economic growth has decreased since 2018, primarily due to the diminishing effectiveness of land finance and land fiscal policies [10][62] Summary by Sections Industry Basic Data - The real estate sector comprises 107 listed companies with a total market value of 1,111.02 billion and a circulating market value of 1,060.27 billion [4] Relative Index Performance - The absolute performance over 1 month, 6 months, and 12 months is -0.3%, -16.7%, and -4.7% respectively, while the relative performance is -2.1%, -14.7%, and -11.5% [5] Research Findings - Prior to 2018, housing prices were positively correlated with consumption, but this correlation has weakened significantly since then [9][14] - The report emphasizes that the real estate sector's early-cycle characteristics were driven by land finance and fiscal policies rather than the real estate industry chain itself [27][62] - After controlling for income, the report finds that rising housing prices tend to have a negative impact on consumption [47][62] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that investment opportunities in residential development companies lie in two main areas: policy maneuvering and companies with competitive advantages in niche markets, such as Greentown China and China Resources Land [10][62] - It also highlights potential opportunities in commercial real estate companies, including Swire Properties and China Resources Vientiane Life, as well as in intermediary businesses with strong competitive advantages like Beike-W [10][62]