纸浆早报 | | 文化用纸 | | 包装纸 | | 生活用纸 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 双胶指数 | 双铜指数 | 白卡指数 | | 生活指数 | | 2025/09/23 | 5725 | 5670 | 4350 | | 839 | | 2025/09/24 | 5725 | 5670 | 4350 | | 839 | | 2025/09/25 | 5725 | 5670 | 4350 | | 839 | | 2025/09/26 | 5725 | 5670 | 4350 | | 839 | | 变化 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | 0 | | | 双胶利润率估算 双铜利润率估算 | | 白卡利润率估算 | | 生活利润率估算 | | 2025/09/23 | 1.9642% | 15.6172% | -12.6135% | | 6.6876% | | 2025/09/24 | 1.9642% | 15.6172% | -12.6135% | | 6.7258% | | 2025/09/25 | 1.9958% | 15.6563% | -12. ...

Group 1 - The company plans to issue A-shares to specific investors, with a maximum of 211,792,834 shares, which is 30% of the total shares before the issuance [1][4][51] - The total amount to be raised from this issuance is not to exceed 300 million yuan [1][4][59] - The issuance is expected to dilute the immediate returns, affecting key financial metrics such as earnings per share and return on equity in the short term [1][4][9] Group 2 - The company has conducted a thorough analysis of the impact of this issuance on its financial indicators and has proposed measures to mitigate the dilution of immediate returns [1][4][9] - The assumptions for the financial impact analysis include stable macroeconomic conditions and the completion of the issuance by June 2026 [2][3] - The company anticipates that the economic benefits from the raised funds will take time to materialize, leading to a temporary decrease in earnings per share [4][5] Group 3 - The funds raised will be used for projects closely aligned with the company's main business, enhancing its competitive edge and supporting long-term growth [5][6][11] - The company has a strong team and technical reserves to support the implementation of the fundraising projects [7][8] - The company will ensure effective management of the raised funds, adhering to regulations and monitoring their usage [10][12] Group 4 - The company commits to maintaining a fair profit distribution system and enhancing investor return mechanisms post-issuance [13] - The board and senior management have made commitments to ensure the fulfillment of measures to compensate for the dilution of immediate returns [14][15] - The company will hold a temporary shareholders' meeting on October 15, 2025, to discuss the issuance [16][17][18]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand fundamentals of pulp have slightly improved, and the pulp price has rebounded slightly. The pulp futures price of contract 2511 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4920 - 5180 this week [1][4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Pulp Price Analysis - **Spot Pulp Price**: Last week, the spot market price of pulp rebounded slightly. The prices of coniferous pulp remained stable, while the prices of broad - leaf pulp increased slightly. The prices of chemimechanical pulp, natural color pulp, and non - wood pulp remained unchanged compared to the previous week [11][14] - **Pulp Futures**: The main pulp futures contract SP2511 showed a slight up - and - down oscillation and rebounded last week, closing at 5018 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan/ton (or + 0.56%) [15] - **Pulp Futures - Spot Basis**: The basis discount of coniferous wood pulp to the closing price of the main futures contract was 632 yuan/ton, with the discount narrowing by 28 yuan/ton compared to the previous week [19] - **Log Futures**: The main log futures contract 2511 showed a slight oscillatory rebound last week, closing at 805.0 yuan/cubic meter, up 7.0 yuan/cubic meter (or + 0.88%) [20] 3.2 Pulp Supply - Side Analysis - **Weekly Production**: Last week, the pulp production was 51.8 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.7 tons (or + 7.69%). The production of broad - leaf pulp and chemimechanical pulp increased, and it is expected that the production of domestic broad - leaf pulp will be about 23.2 tons and that of chemimechanical pulp will be about 22.0 tons this week [22] - **Capacity Utilization**: The weekly capacity utilization rates of domestic broad - leaf pulp and chemimechanical pulp both increased. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate will not change much next week [25] - **Monthly Production**: In August 2025, the domestic pulp production increased slightly, with wood pulp production rising and non - wood pulp production remaining flat [27] - **Monthly Capacity Utilization**: In August 2025, the capacity utilization rates of chemimechanical pulp and broad - leaf pulp both decreased [32] - **Monthly Production Profit**: In August 2025, the production profit of broad - leaf pulp increased month - on - month, and the loss of chemimechanical pulp decreased [36] - **Pulp Imports**: In August 2025, the pulp import volume decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. From January to August 2025, the cumulative import volume increased year - on - year [37] 3.3 Pulp Demand - Side Analysis - **Downstream Capacity Utilization**: The capacity utilization rate of household paper decreased slightly, while those of offset paper, coated paper, and white cardboard increased. It is expected that the production of household paper will be about 27.9 tons, offset paper about 20.6 tons, coated paper about 8.5 tons, and white cardboard about 36.0 tons this week [39][43][46][47] - **Downstream Base Paper Gross Profit**: The gross profit of household paper decreased, while that of white cardboard increased slightly. The loss of offset paper decreased slightly, and the gross profit of coated paper increased [49][53] - **Domestic Pulp Consumption**: In August 2025, the actual pulp consumption increased both month - on - month and year - on - year [54] - **Downstream Base Paper Spot Price**: The prices of household paper and cultural paper remained stable, the price of whiteboard paper increased slightly, and the price of white cardboard remained basically stable [57][60] 3.4 Pulp Inventory - Side Analysis - **Pulp Port Inventory**: Currently, the overall port inventory of pulp is increasing. The inventory in Qingdao Port, Changshu Port, and Tianjin Port has all increased [61][63] - **Futures Pulp Warehouse Receipts**: The pulp futures warehouse receipts decreased by 0.25% compared to the previous week, and the warehouse receipts in Shandong decreased by 0.27% [65]

Core Viewpoint - The double-sided coated paper industry is facing challenges due to declining demand, high inventory levels, and low production margins, despite an increase in production capacity and some recovery in supply from major producers [3][4][10]. Industry Overview - Double-sided coated paper, also known as "Dawlin paper," is a major type of cultural printing paper, primarily used in book printing [1]. - The upstream products for double-sided coated paper are pulp, with production costs heavily reliant on various types of pulp, which account for 60%-70% of the total cost [2]. - The domestic production capacity of double-sided coated paper has grown significantly from 7.89 million tons in 2010 to an expected 18 million tons by the end of 2025 [2]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The main downstream application for double-sided coated paper is book printing, which accounts for 88% of its usage [3]. - In 2024, the domestic production of double-sided coated paper is projected to be 10.49 million tons, reflecting a slight increase from the previous year [4]. - However, the production capacity utilization rate is low, averaging 62% in 2024, with a significant drop in production observed in early 2025 due to weak market demand [7][8]. Export and Import Trends - In 2024, the import volume of double-sided coated paper is expected to be 200,000 tons, while exports are projected at 968,000 tons, resulting in a net export of 770,000 tons [3][9]. - The net export volume has decreased in 2025 compared to the previous year, indicating a slowdown in overseas demand [9]. Inventory Levels - As of September 12, 2024, the total inventory of double-sided coated paper reached a record high of 1.744 million tons, with manufacturers and traders actively reducing stock levels [10]. Profitability and Pricing - As of September 12, 2024, domestic producers are facing losses of 135 yuan per ton, with historical price fluctuations showing a maximum profit of 1,562 yuan and a minimum loss of 874 yuan per ton [11][15]. - The price of high-quality double-sided coated paper is currently between 4,500 and 4,800 yuan per ton, with expectations of continued low prices due to high supply and inventory levels [15].

General Information - Report Title: Pulp Morning Report [2] - Report Date: September 17, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [2] SP Main Contract Closing Price - Closing price on September 16, 2025: 5068.00 [3] - Price changes from September 10 - 16, 2025: 0.52314%, 0.40032%, -0.51834%, 1.32265%, 0.23734% respectively [3] - Discounted US dollar price on September 16, 2025: 621.53 [3] - Shandong Yinxing basis on September 16, 2025: 582 [3] - Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai Yinxing basis on September 16, 2025: 612 [3] Import Pulp Price and Profit - Calculated with 13% VAT, import profits of Canadian Golden Lion, Canadian Lion and Chilean Yinxing are -145.57, -533.29 and -212.83 respectively [4] Pulp and Paper Price and Margin - From September 10 - 16, 2025, there is no change in the national average price of softwood pulp, hardwood pulp, natural pulp and chemimechanical pulp, as well as the average price in Shandong region [4] - From September 11 - 16, 2025, there is no change in the prices of cultural paper (offset index, coated index), packaging paper (white card index) and household paper (household index) [4] - From September 11 - 16, 2025, the changes in estimated margins of offset paper, coated paper, white card and household paper are -0.9701, -1.6070, 0.0368 and -0.4202 respectively [4] Pulp Price Spread - On September 16, 2025, the price spreads between softwood and hardwood pulp, softwood and natural pulp, softwood and chemimechanical pulp, and softwood pulp and waste paper are 1460.00, 250, 1825 and 4074 respectively [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report No clear core viewpoints are explicitly stated in the provided content. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Main Views and Strategy Overview - The report presents a table of caustic soda's main weekly data, including prices, production, operating rates, inventory, and cost - profit data. For instance, the futures price of caustic soda is 2670.0 yuan/ton, down 2.59% from last week; China's production is 810,000 tons, down 0.38% [4]. PART TWO: Review of Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Multiple charts are presented, showing the trends of caustic soda's basis, prices of different types of caustic soda (such as 32% and 50% caustic soda), and trading volume of different contracts over different time periods from 2019 to 2025 [7][10][12] PART THREE: Caustic Soda Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - There are various charts showing data related to caustic soda's supply - demand fundamentals, including device loss volume, capacity utilization, inventory in different regions of China (such as North China, East China, and Northwest China), and ECU profits in different provinces (such as Shandong, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang) from 2019 to 2025 [30][33][35] - Charts also display the operating rates of downstream industries such as epoxy chloropropane, epoxy propane, and PVC, as well as the operating rates in different regions like Shandong and Northwest China over different time periods [69]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][5] Core Views - The company's performance in H1 2025 met expectations, with a revenue of 19.113 billion yuan, down 6.87% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.78 billion yuan, up 1.26% year-on-year [4] - The company is gradually increasing its overseas revenue, with foreign sales reaching 640 million yuan, up 71.89% year-on-year [4] - The report highlights the company's integrated advantages in pulp and paper production, with significant new capacity planned to support long-term growth [4][5] Financial Summary - For 2023, the company is projected to have a revenue of 39.544 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of -1% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 is expected to be 3.086 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 10% [2] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 is estimated at 1.10 yuan [2] - The company plans to expand its production capacity significantly, with several new projects expected to come online between 2025 and 2026 [4] - The projected net profit for 2025 is 3.101 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 1% [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1]. Core Views - The company's Q2 gross margin improved sequentially, leading to a quarterly profit that exceeded expectations [1]. - The company reported a revenue of 19.11 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 6.9%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.78 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.3% [5]. - The report highlights that the decline in revenue was primarily due to falling paper prices, particularly in the pulp and paper business [6][8]. - The company is expected to benefit from the ongoing expansion of its production capacity across its three major bases, which will enhance its operational efficiency and product structure [9][10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a gross margin of 17.3%, a year-on-year increase of 0.1 percentage points and a sequential increase of 1.5 percentage points [8]. - The first half of 2025 saw a gross margin of 16.5%, down 1.1 percentage points year-on-year [7]. - The company’s revenue forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted downwards to 40.2 billion, 45.9 billion, and 53.9 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting a decrease of 10% across the board [10]. Revenue Breakdown - For the first half of 2025, the revenue from various paper products was as follows: double glue paper (4.2 billion yuan, -14.8% YoY), copper plate paper (2.02 billion yuan, -4.9% YoY), and life paper (1.29 billion yuan, +24.0% YoY) [6]. - The revenue from the pulp business was also affected, with chemical pulp revenue down 20.3% YoY [6]. Cost and Margin Analysis - The report indicates that the decline in gross margin for the paper business was mainly due to a shift in product mix and falling paper prices, which outpaced the decrease in raw material costs [8]. - The company’s operating expense ratio for the first half of 2025 was 5.4%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points year-on-year [8]. Future Outlook - The company is set to launch several production lines in its Guangxi base in the second half of the year, which is expected to enhance its production capacity and operational synergy [9]. - The long-term performance outlook remains positive due to the ongoing expansion and integration of its supply chain [10].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The double - offset paper market is basically stable today. The supply is expected to increase due to the resumption of some idle production lines, but the downstream demand is limited, and the consumption of base paper is slow. The industry's production may decline, the demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the cost support is limited [5][8]. 3. Summary by Directory First Part: Data Analysis - **Double - offset Paper Prices**: The prices of double - offset paper 70g in different regions such as Hebei, Beijing, Guangdong, Shandong, and Shanghai remain unchanged both daily and weekly. For example, the price of double - offset paper 70g: Hebei: Chenming Yunbao is 4900 yuan/ton, with a daily and weekly change of 0.00% [3]. - **Coated Paper Prices**: The prices of double - copper paper 157g in various regions show no daily change, but a weekly decline. For instance, the price of double - copper paper 157g: Beijing: Taiyang Tianyang is 5100 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of - 0.97% [3]. - **Pulp Prices**: The price of coniferous pulp: Shanghai: Yinxing is 5850 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.86% and a weekly decrease of - 0.85%. Some pulp prices remain stable, like broad - leaf pulp in some regions [3]. Second Part: Market Judgment - **Market Status**: The double - offset paper market is stable. Some idle production lines in Shandong are planned to resume production, increasing the supply expectation. However, the downstream orders are limited, and the consumption of base paper is slow. The purchase price of wood chips has little change, and the supply of wood chips is affected by weather conditions [5]. - **Logic Analysis**: The production of the double - offset paper industry may decline as some停产 enterprises have not resumed production and there may be maintenance of some production lines. The demand is mainly for rigid needs as dealers are cautious in inventory preparation and downstream printing factories have average orders. The cost support is limited as the prices of coniferous and broad - leaf pulp are stable [8]. Third Part: Relevant Attachments - There are four figures, including double - offset paper production, in - plant inventory, social inventory, and production profit, showing the data from 2021 to 2025 [10][11].

Core Viewpoint - The company forecasts FY25 net profit attributable to shareholders to be between 1.7 billion to 1.9 billion yuan, exceeding both market expectations and previous estimates due to better-than-expected cost control in self-produced pulp and a decline in coal prices [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company expects FY25 earnings to be between 2.1 billion to 2.3 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 165% to 190%, with net profit attributable to shareholders increasing by 126% to 153% [1] - The company estimates FY25 paper production volume to be over 21 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 10% [1] - The company has a projected capital expenditure of over 13 billion yuan for FY25, with a potential decline in FY26 capital expenditure but still at a relatively high level [2] Group 2: Production and Capacity Expansion - The company is focusing on expanding its production capacity in Guangxi and Hubei, with plans to produce 1.2 million tons of white cardboard, 600,000 tons of cultural paper, 1.75 million tons of chemical pulp, and 600,000 tons of mechanical pulp by FY25 [1] - By the end of FY25, the company's total paper and pulp production capacity is expected to exceed 30 million tons, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 8% for paper and over 30% for pulp from 2021 to 2025 [1] Group 3: Cost Management and Market Conditions - The company's performance is primarily driven by a significant reduction in self-produced pulp costs, particularly at its integrated pulp and paper base in Beihai, Guangxi [2] - The average prices for various paper products have shown a downward trend, with boxboard, double glue paper, and white cardboard prices decreasing by 4%, 9%, and 7% respectively in the first half of 2025 [2] - The company needs to monitor changes in self-produced pulp costs and the pricing performance of certain paper products during peak seasons [2] Group 4: Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company has raised its earnings forecast for FY25 and FY26 by 25% and 49% respectively, with projected earnings of 1.8 billion yuan and 2.5 billion yuan [3] - The target price has been increased by 33% to 6.0 HKD, corresponding to a price-to-book ratio of 0.5x for FY25, FY26, and FY27 [3]