继8月瓦楞纸、牛卡纸等包装纸涨价后，白卡纸也迎来了涨价潮。 8月底，国内6家白卡纸企业密集发布调价函，博汇纸业（600966.SH）、玖龙纸业（02689.HK）、亚太 森博、APP（中国）、万国纸业、联盛浆纸宣布从9月1日起，白卡纸系列产品在现有价格基础上，执行 价上调100元/吨。 9月4日，卓创资讯白卡纸分析师孔祥芬告诉《华夏时报》记者，今年以来，白卡纸市场走势震荡下跌， 当前纸价已处于年内底部水平，行业理论盈利处于亏损状态，在运营压力较大以及传统需求旺季即将到 来的背景下，8月底国内白卡纸规模企业纷纷发布价格提涨通知。 近几年，造纸行业供过于求背景下，相关上市公司业绩承压。2025年上半年，20家造纸上市公司中，仅 有6家企业净利润实现增长，其余14家造纸企业业绩出现下滑，业绩最差的企业上半年净利润仅有 196.25万元。 年内第三轮调价 从涨价函发布时间来看，此次是今年以来白卡纸厂第三次发布涨价通知，实际上在2024年12月24日，相 关纸厂已发布2025年1月、2月分别计划上调200元/吨通知。 本次涨价的原因也与前两次基本相同，企业将由头指向了成本。 APP（中国）在其发布的涨价通知中表示，鉴于 ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic paper industry is experiencing a price increase trend, led by major paper companies, due to rising raw material costs and improved demand expectations as the traditional peak season approaches [1][2]. Price Increase Trends - Multiple paper companies, including Nine Dragons Paper and Jiangxi Lee & Man Paper, have announced price hikes for corrugated paper and recycled kraft paper, with increases generally ranging from 30 to 50 yuan per ton starting August 1 [2]. - The price increase trend began in the first quarter of the year, with some leading companies issuing multiple price increase notices, particularly accelerating in July [2]. - The main reasons for the price hikes are rising raw material costs and expectations of improved demand, as the second half of the year is traditionally a peak season for the paper industry [2]. Raw Material Costs - The price of waste paper has rebounded significantly, with the average reference price for waste yellow board paper rising from a low of approximately 1400 yuan per ton in February to 1653 yuan per ton by August 8 [2]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - As of August 7, inventory levels for corrugated paper and boxboard have decreased, indicating a slight easing of supply pressure [3]. - Despite the price increase announcements, the actual implementation has been less effective due to insufficient demand [3]. - Analysts expect that with the stabilization of pulp prices and the upcoming peak season for cultural paper bidding, paper prices may continue to recover, benefiting paper manufacturers [3]. Industry Initiatives - Major companies like Nine Dragons Paper and Lee & Man Paper have announced maintenance shutdowns to support the "anti-involution" initiative aimed at enhancing product quality and upgrading equipment [4]. - The "anti-involution" initiative encourages resisting low-price competition, optimizing capacity structure, and promoting innovation and quality improvement within the industry [4]. Market Outlook - The paper industry is expected to benefit from the "anti-involution" initiative, which may help stabilize prices and improve profitability for leading companies [5]. - The current state of the industry shows that after years of expansion, new capacity additions are limited, and many paper types are at the bottom of the pricing cycle, indicating potential for recovery [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent price adjustments by Nine Dragons Paper, led by Zhang Yin, in response to rising operational costs and the cyclical nature of the paper industry, highlighting the challenges and strategies in navigating a fluctuating market [4][5][6]. Group 1: Cost Pressures - The paper industry is highly cyclical, with prices closely tied to macroeconomic changes, leading to significant pressure on companies like Nine Dragons Paper [14]. - Since 2021, paper mills have been releasing capacity while downstream demand has not kept pace, forcing companies to adjust prices frequently to maintain market share [17][18]. - As of July, the average price of waste paper has decreased by 0.66% month-on-month, while the price of corrugated paper has dropped by 1.41%, indicating that raw material cost reductions are not sufficient to alleviate profit pressures [19][20]. Group 2: Navigating the Downturn - Zhang Yin has led Nine Dragons Paper for nearly 30 years, with the company experiencing its first loss in 2023, amounting to 2.38 billion RMB [35]. - Despite the downturn, there are signs of market recovery, with improved demand for packaging paper and a gradual increase in market conditions [36][37]. - The company has successfully reduced inventory levels, with stock decreasing to 9.5 billion RMB, a reduction of 647 million RMB year-on-year [24]. Group 3: Capacity Expansion - Zhang Yin is focusing on increasing control over raw material supply by investing in upstream integration, including acquiring paper mills in the U.S. and establishing recycling operations in China [46]. - Nine Dragons is expanding its production capacity, with new projects in Guangxi and Hubei expected to increase annual design capacity to 8.19 million tons and paper production capacity to 25.37 million tons [48][49]. - The total assets of Nine Dragons reached 138.71 billion RMB by the end of 2024, reflecting a significant increase in investment in property, plants, and equipment [52].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges and strategies of Nine Dragons Paper, led by Zhang Yin, in navigating the cyclical nature of the paper industry, particularly in response to rising operational costs and fluctuating demand [4][6][10]. Group 1: Cost Pressures - The paper industry is highly cyclical, with prices closely tied to macroeconomic changes, leading to significant pressure on margins due to rising costs of raw materials like wood pulp and waste paper [10][11]. - Since 2021, paper mills have been releasing capacity while downstream demand has not kept pace, forcing companies like Nine Dragons to adjust prices frequently to maintain market share [13][14]. - In July, the average price of waste paper decreased by 0.66% month-on-month, while corrugated paper saw a decline of 1.41%, indicating that the reduction in raw material costs is not sufficient to alleviate profit pressures [15][16]. Group 2: Market Recovery and Strategy - Zhang Yin has been proactive in expanding production capacity and diversifying product offerings, focusing on high-end products to avoid price wars in the low-end market [36][39]. - Nine Dragons reported a significant increase in sales volume, reaching 11.4 million tons, with revenue nearing 33.46 billion RMB, marking a recovery from previous lows [38]. - The company is investing heavily in capacity expansion, with projects in Guangxi and Hubei expected to increase annual production capacity significantly, aiming for a total capacity of 8.19 million tons of fiber raw materials and 25.37 million tons of paper [43][46]. Group 3: Financial Performance and Outlook - For the fiscal year 2023, Nine Dragons experienced a loss of 2.38 billion RMB, the first loss in 17 years, but has since seen improvements in demand and profitability [33][34]. - The total assets of Nine Dragons reached 143.3 billion RMB by the end of 2024, with a significant portion attributed to property and equipment investments [47]. - The company anticipates that government initiatives to boost consumption will support demand in the packaging paper sector, with some analysts suggesting that the industry may be at a cyclical bottom [50][51].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent price adjustments made by Nine Dragons Paper, led by Zhang Yin, in response to rising operational costs and the challenges faced in the paper industry, which is characterized by cyclical fluctuations and pressure on profit margins [2][3][8]. Price Adjustments - On July 15, Nine Dragons Paper implemented a price increase of 30 yuan per ton for corrugated paper at its Dongguan and Quanzhou bases [2]. - This marks the third price adjustment in the past half month, indicating a strategy of gradual price increases amid fluctuating market conditions [3][5]. Industry Context - The paper industry is highly cyclical, with prices closely tied to macroeconomic changes. Key raw materials like wood pulp and waste paper are subject to price volatility and supply instability [8][9]. - Since 2021, paper mills have been releasing capacity while downstream demand has not kept pace, leading to a challenging environment where price adjustments are necessary to maintain market share [11]. Financial Performance - Nine Dragons Paper's market capitalization has dropped over 70% from its peak, currently hovering around 16 billion HKD [4]. - In the 2024 fiscal year, the company reported a revenue of 33.46 billion RMB, with a gross profit of 3.19 billion RMB, reflecting an 18% increase in gross profit year-on-year [33]. Strategic Initiatives - Zhang Yin is focusing on expanding production capacity and moving towards high-end products to avoid price wars in the low-end market [30]. - The company is also investing in upstream integration to enhance raw material supply capabilities, which constitute about 60% of total production costs [35]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict a potential market recovery around September, with seasonal demand expected to increase during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival periods [19][20]. - Nine Dragons is expanding its production capacity significantly, with new projects expected to come online in the second quarter of this year, aiming for a total design capacity of 819 million tons of fiber raw materials and 2,537 million tons of paper production [38][39].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Nine Dragons Paper, led by Zhang Yin, is adjusting its pricing strategy in response to rising operational costs and market conditions, with recent price increases for corrugated paper indicating a cautious approach to navigating a challenging market environment [2][3][4]. Group 1: Pricing Strategy - Nine Dragons Paper has implemented a new round of price increases, raising corrugated paper prices by 30 yuan per ton at its Dongguan and Quanzhou bases [2]. - This marks the third price adjustment in the past half month, reflecting ongoing pressures from rising operational costs [2][5]. - The company is currently in a "testing" phase for price increases, as the overall market remains stagnant [3]. Group 2: Market Conditions - The paper industry is characterized by strong cyclicality, with prices closely tied to macroeconomic changes [4]. - Since 2021, paper mills have been releasing capacity while downstream demand has not kept pace, leading to a challenging balance for the company [4][5]. - The average price of waste paper has decreased by 0.66% month-on-month, while corrugated paper prices have dropped by 1.41%, indicating pressure on industry profits [5]. Group 3: Financial Performance - Nine Dragons Paper's average selling price for products is projected to be approximately 2930 yuan per ton for the second half of 2024, down 4% year-on-year and over 20% from 2021 [8]. - The company reported a significant loss of 2.38 billion yuan in the 2023 fiscal year, marking its first loss in 17 years [16]. - Despite challenges, the company has seen some recovery, with a 1.2 times year-on-year increase in net profit to 669 million yuan in the latest reporting period [20]. Group 4: Expansion and Investment - Zhang Yin is focusing on expanding production capacity and enhancing raw material supply capabilities, with plans to increase total design capacity to 819 million tons of fiber raw materials and 2537 million tons of paper production [22][25]. - Significant investments are being made in high-end products and upstream integration, including the acquisition of four integrated pulp and paper factories in the U.S. [22][26]. - The company’s total assets are expected to reach 143.3 billion yuan by the end of 2024, with a substantial portion of the increase attributed to property, plant, and equipment [27]. Group 5: Debt and Future Outlook - As a result of its expansion efforts, Nine Dragons Paper's total liabilities have risen to 143.3 billion yuan, with a debt ratio exceeding 65% [28]. - The company is optimistic about future demand in the packaging paper sector, anticipating that government initiatives to boost consumption will support the industry [28].