Group 1 - Global asset management firms are optimistic about the performance of risk assets in 2026, supported by a loose monetary environment and ongoing technological innovation, with a focus on stocks, particularly in the AI sector [1][2] - Fidelity International's Matthew Quigley indicates a positive macro environment for 2026, with resilient economic growth and easing factors that troubled the market in the past year [1] - Schroders' 2026 market outlook predicts strong performance for U.S. stocks, especially the S&P 500, and highlights opportunities in Asian tech, European banks, and industrial stocks [1] Group 2 - Wellington Management maintains an overweight stance on global equities, citing robust earnings fundamentals and a favorable policy environment, with a continued focus on AI investment opportunities [2] - Fidelity International expects the AI investment boom to dominate the market in 2026, emphasizing the need for investors to identify companies that can convert technological advantages into sustainable profits [2] - Haitong International's investment director notes that the Chinese economy is likely to continue its positive trajectory, with Hong Kong stocks expected to attract more global capital as external conditions stabilize [2] Group 3 - Fidelity Fund's manager highlights four main investment themes for the A-share market: AI, commercial aerospace, low-altitude economy, and innovative consumption, each presenting significant opportunities [3] - The AI industry value chain offers rich opportunities across various segments, from upstream chips to downstream applications [3] - The commercial aerospace sector represents a combination of technological advancement and market potential, particularly in satellite internet [3]

Core Viewpoint - Major global asset management firms are optimistic about the performance of global risk assets in 2026, driven by a supportive monetary environment and ongoing technological innovation, particularly in artificial intelligence [2][3] Group 1: Global Market Outlook - Fidelity International's Matthew Quigley indicates a generally positive macroeconomic environment for 2026, with resilient economic growth and continued loose monetary and fiscal policies [2] - Schroders' 2026 market outlook predicts strong performance in U.S. equities, particularly the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 indices, and highlights opportunities in Asian technology and European banking and industrial sectors [2] - Wellington Management maintains an overweight stance on global equities, citing robust earnings fundamentals and a favorable policy environment [3] Group 2: Investment Themes - Fidelity International expects the AI investment boom to dominate the market in 2026, with AI-driven profit growth trends continuing, although investors should be aware of the risks associated with unverified commercialization paths [3] - Four main investment themes identified for the A-share market include: 1. Artificial Intelligence, with opportunities across the entire value chain from chips to industry applications [4] 2. Commercial Aerospace, reflecting China's advancement in manufacturing capabilities and the potential for satellite internet [4] 3. Low-altitude Economy, leveraging China's leadership in battery technology and drones for urban air mobility and logistics [4] 4. Innovative Consumption, driven by a shift in consumer demand towards quality, fostering new consumption patterns like smart homes and emerging brands [4]

Core Insights - The article presents a forecast for investment markets in 2026, highlighting optimism for U.S. equities while cautioning against potential AI-related bubbles [1][2] - It emphasizes the importance of diversification in investment strategies amid a complex market environment influenced by various global factors [3] Group 1: U.S. Market Outlook - Positive outlook for overall U.S. stocks in a non-recessionary, rate-cutting environment, but caution is advised regarding the potential for an AI bubble [2] - The Russell 2000 index is expected to perform well, particularly in a non-recessionary environment, with a recommendation to hedge risks through shorting high-yield bonds [2] Group 2: Asian Market and Technology - Strong growth anticipated in Asian technology stocks, with earnings growth expected to exceed forecasts and valuations not overly stretched [2] - Asian markets are projected to outperform the U.S., becoming a core area for returns [3] Group 3: European Market - European banks and industrial stocks are expected to benefit from increased defense spending and related consumption, providing diversification opportunities [2] Group 4: Alternative Investments - Convertible bonds are highlighted for their unique attributes, offering 80% upside potential from stocks and 60% downside protection [2] - Gold is favored as a strong investment, with central banks increasing their gold reserves and a trend towards diversification away from the U.S. dollar [2] Group 5: Emerging Markets - Emerging markets and local currency bonds are seen as attractive due to improved fiscal conditions and higher yields compared to developed markets [2] - Emerging markets are expected to have more room for rate cuts to stabilize economies, particularly in a weakening dollar environment [2] Group 6: Energy and Private Assets - The demand for alternative energy is anticipated to rise due to structural changes from AI development and climate change pressures, with reasonable valuations expected to support future growth [2] - Private assets are noted for their resilience against market volatility and ability to capture strong fundamental returns [2]

施罗德投资表示，虽然有关关税的消息仍然反复不定，但相对于"解放日"，目前的贸易发展局势与其基 本预期一致，即对中国征收30%关税、对其他地区征收10%，使实际关税水平维持在约12%。经济不确 定性持续存在，需密切观察企业将如何应对，但部分经济下行风险已较早前受控。因此，施罗德认为 2025年经济衰退的风险已有所减低。对股市维持正面看法，尤其聚焦美国及欧洲的金融业板块。 施罗德投资整体对各地政府债券维持中性立场。虽然收益率已上升且估值有所改善，但由于美国债务水 平上升及持续的通胀风险，中期而言担忧仍然存在。虽然市场预期与其展望更趋一致，但仍预期美联储 的货币政策放宽幅度、将低于目前市场所反映的水平。美国以外地区的通胀压力相对温和，相比美国国 债，继续看好德国国债的表现。 继续看好黄金作为分散投资组合的作用，并对美元持偏淡立场，主要反映于看好欧元及新兴市场本地货 币债券的表现。 由于现届美国政府政策走向难以预测，市场愈趋重视分散资产配置。投资者普遍持有较多美国资产，在 这情况下，预期风险意识将会提升，促使资金被重新分配，并流出美国市场。 而全球原油供应持续增加，将令市场出现供应过剩，并对2025年油价构成压力，因 ...