There is a real disconnect between oil prices and the future growth expectations of the United States economy, especially now that the Federal Reserve (the Fed) has decided to cut interest rates in September 2025. Interest rates act as gravity on business activity and earnings potential, and the lever has been turned lower to help these two factors float more freely in the coming quarters. Historically (and logically), more business activity represents more demand for oil, and the low inventories seen today ...

Group 1 - The International Energy Agency (IEA) reports that in 2024, the share of oil in global energy consumption will fall below 30% for the first time, primarily due to slow post-pandemic recovery in oil demand and growth driven by aviation fuel and petrochemical feedstock [1] - Global oil demand is projected to increase by 830,000 barrels per day in 2024, significantly lower than the 2.1 million barrels per day growth in 2023, and slightly below the 900,000 barrels per day forecast by S&P Global Commodity Insights [1] - Road transport oil demand growth has significantly slowed, contributing only 5% to global oil demand growth since 2022, due to the rise of alternative fuels like electric vehicles and liquefied natural gas [1] Group 2 - In the latest monthly oil market report, the IEA predicts that global oil demand growth will slightly exceed 1 million barrels per day in 2025, while S&P Global Commodity Insights expects a growth of 1.3 million barrels per day [2] - The IEA forecasts a 2.2% increase in total global energy demand in 2024, with electricity consumption being the main driver, supported by increased generation from natural gas, coal, nuclear, and renewable energy sources [2] - All major fuels are expected to see an increase in demand in 2024, with renewable energy having the highest share, followed by natural gas [2]