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申万宏源交运一周天地汇(20250629-20250704):船舶吸收合并重工获批船价企稳推荐船舶板块,关注港股租赁公司
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-07-05 12:44
Investment Rating - The report recommends the shipping sector and highlights investment opportunities in leasing companies listed in Hong Kong [1][20]. Core Views - The new ship price index has stabilized, and the merger of China Shipbuilding and China State Shipbuilding Corporation has been approved, with a focus on verifying the synergistic advantages post-merger [20]. - The shipping sector's market capitalization to order ratio is at a historical low, indicating sufficient safety margins [20]. - The report continues to recommend high-dividend stocks in the transportation sector, including COSCO Shipping International, Shenzhen International, and MTR Corporation [20]. Summary by Sections Shipping and Shipbuilding - New ship prices have stabilized, with the index recorded at 187.11 points, a slight increase of 0.12% [25]. - VLCC rates fell by 18% to $24,444 per day, influenced by increased capacity in the Pacific market [20]. - Suez crude oil tanker rates decreased by 12% to $35,557 per day, while Aframax rates dropped by 11% to $32,167 per day [20]. Oil Transportation - The Pacific market's high freight rates attracted more capacity, leading to continued pressure on rates [20]. - OPEC+ is expected to discuss production increases in August, with actual production and export conditions being closely monitored [20]. Dry Bulk and Container Shipping - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) fell by 5.6% to 1,436 points, with Capesize rates under pressure due to seasonal factors [22]. - The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) dropped by 5.3% to 1,763.49 points, with the US West Coast route seeing a significant decline of 19% [24]. Air Transportation - The aviation sector is entering a peak season, with limited supply growth and natural increases in passenger volume expected to support airline revenues [38]. - Recommended stocks include Spring Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, and China Southern Airlines [38]. Express Delivery - The express delivery industry maintains high growth rates, with May's business volume reaching 17.32 billion items, a year-on-year increase of 17.2% [41]. - Recommended companies include SF Holding, YTO Express, and ZTO Express [42].