在日本央行宣布加息后，日本十年期国债收益率攀升至数十年高位，日元在震荡交易中延续跌势，日本 股市则维持上涨态势。 尽管经济学家此前已普遍预期日本央行会在周五作出加息决定，但交易员将关注点放在了央行未明确给 出未来紧缩政策的时间指引这一点上。 随着市场对12月加息的预期增强，目前日元已较11月末低点反弹逾1%，此前兑美元汇率曾短暂触及十 个月低点。 上周有报道称，日本央行官员认为利率最终可能在紧缩周期结束前升至0.75%以上，一位前执行理事则 暗示，到2027年日本央行可能累计加息多达四次。 由于当前通胀仍处高位，且日本与主要经济体之间的利差依然显著，投资者将目光转向行长植田和男今 日晚些时候的新闻发布会，以寻找未来加息路径的线索。 道富投资管理资深固定收益策略师Masahiko Loo在报告中指出："此次加息本就是板上钉钉之事，但市 场真正的焦点在于植田和男的表态基调，"他进一步分析，"央行需在鸽派立场与鹰派立场之间找到精准 平衡——态度过软或导致日元进一步贬值，而过度鹰派则可能引发市场重现2024年7月的抛售潮。" 此前植田和男已释放明确加息信号，市场对日本央行收紧政策的押注随之升温，而本次加息决议正是在 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the contrasting monetary policies of the US and Japan, highlighting the potential market impacts of Japan's anticipated interest rate hike and the US Federal Reserve's expected rate cut. Group 1: Japan's Monetary Policy - Japan's central bank is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points on December 19, following a strong indication from Governor Kazuo Ueda [1][7] - The market's expectation for Japan's rate hike increased significantly from 50% to over 70% after Ueda's statement, with the 2-year Japanese government bond yield rising by 3 basis points [7] - Previous rate hikes in Japan have been managed with better communication, reducing panic in the markets compared to the sudden hike in July 2024 [5][7] Group 2: Impact on Currency and Global Markets - The anticipated rate hike in Japan aims to strengthen the yen, which has been weak against the dollar, thus alleviating imported inflation pressures [9] - The US Federal Reserve has cut rates by a total of 75 basis points since September, leading to a decline in the dollar index from around 100 to approximately 98 [9] - The depreciation of the dollar has lessened external pressure on the Chinese yuan, which has only slightly declined by 1.77% against the dollar this year [9] Group 3: Effects on A-shares and Hong Kong Market - The strengthening of the yuan is expected to enhance the attractiveness of Chinese assets to foreign investors, as they can purchase more assets with converted dollars [13] - The Hong Kong market, particularly the Hang Seng Tech Index, has shown signs of recovery as the dollar weakens, making dollar-denominated assets more valuable in yuan terms [11] - The upcoming Central Economic Work Conference is anticipated to set a positive tone for economic policies, historically leading to an increase in market indices [13] Group 4: Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market, particularly the 30-year government bonds, has seen declines due to changing market expectations regarding interest rate cuts by the Chinese central bank [15] - Despite recent declines, there is potential for support in the bond market due to expectations of further rate cuts in the coming year [15][16] - The emphasis on "macro-prudential management" by the central bank suggests a focus on preventing financial risks, indicating lower volatility for government bonds [16] Group 5: Investment Strategy Outlook - The article suggests a potential shift in investment focus from bonds to equities, driven by the expected strengthening of the yuan and global liquidity conditions [18] - Investors are advised to monitor key upcoming meetings, including the Federal Reserve's meeting on December 11 and the Central Economic Work Conference, for insights into future policy directions [18] - Recommendations include reallocating funds from government bonds to sectors benefiting from yuan appreciation and policy expectations, such as resource, technology, and dividend-paying stocks [18]

Group 1 - The demand for Japan's 10-year government bonds has unexpectedly strengthened, providing a boost to the recently volatile bond market, with a key demand indicator reaching a new high since April 2024 [1] - The 10-year government bond futures rose slightly to 139.14 yen, corresponding to a yield decrease of 2.5 basis points to 1.48%, despite rising yields in major global economies [1][4] - The upcoming 30-year government bond auction is seen as a critical test of market sentiment towards ultra-long-term bonds, with traders remaining cautious [1][4] Group 2 - Senior interest rate strategist Miki Den from Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Securities noted that the 1.5% yield level is attractive for allocation funds, which is key to the recovery in demand [4] - However, he warned that the downward yield potential may be limited due to the upcoming 30-year bond issuance, indicating that the market needs to digest the supply pressure from ultra-long-term bonds [4] - The global bond market is currently experiencing a crisis of confidence, with concerns over large fiscal deficits in major economies increasing debt burdens, compounded by the Bank of Japan's gradual exit from large-scale bond purchases [4][5] Group 3 - Recent auction data shows that the subscription multiple for the 2.6 trillion yen 10-year government bonds significantly increased to above the one-year average, despite yields rising over 50 basis points from the 2023 low [5] - The attractiveness of Japanese bonds relative to other developed countries is a primary reason for the influx of allocation funds [5] - The upcoming 30-year bond auction is expected to be a crucial observation point, as its yield has reached the highest level since issuance, which will directly impact global investors' risk assessment of the Japanese bond market [5]