Group 1 - The ADP employment report for October shows that the U.S. private sector added 42,000 jobs, exceeding expectations and ending a two-month decline [1] - The ISM services PMI increased to 52.4, indicating a rebound in business activity, while the ISM prices paid index reached a new high since 2022, highlighting ongoing inflation pressures [1] - The strong dollar, with the index rising to 100.22, has put downward pressure on gold prices, which retreated to $3,970, failing to break the critical $4,000 level [1][2] Group 2 - Recent hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials have heightened market tension, with expectations for continued tightening policies, further pressuring gold prices [2] - The U.S. government shutdown has entered its 37th day, creating uncertainty in the market and delaying the release of important data, which has amplified the impact of the ADP employment report [2] - Gold prices are currently fluctuating around $3,970, with short-term gains constrained by the strong dollar; a breakthrough above $4,000 could target $4,082, while a drop below $3,929 may lead to a decline towards $3,854 [2] Group 3 - The strong U.S. economic data continues to support a robust dollar, putting downward pressure on gold, which has not yet surpassed the $4,000 mark [3] - Global uncertainties, including the U.S. government shutdown, geopolitical tensions, and Federal Reserve policy expectations, still provide support for gold as a safe-haven asset [3] - Investors should closely monitor the Federal Reserve's policy direction and the progress of the government shutdown, as these factors will significantly influence market sentiment and asset prices [3]

阿根廷总统米莱领导的自由进步党在中期选举中意外大胜，为其激进的紧缩政策赢得了关键的民意背书，也让此前向该国提供200亿美元货币互换支持的美国政府松了一口气。此次中期选举涉及众议院半数席位（127席）和参议院三分之一席位的改选，自由进步党在众议院中赢得了65席。🗒️阿根廷汇市周一高开，预计周一股市也将迎来反弹。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the USD/JPY exchange rate is currently stable around 148, with recent CPI data from Tokyo suggesting a slowdown in inflation, which may impact monetary policy decisions in Japan [1][2] - According to Capital Economics, the weaker-than-expected CPI data in Tokyo has exaggerated the perception of nationwide inflation slowing down, leading to speculation about the likelihood of an interest rate hike in October [1] - The report estimates that recent measures, such as free childcare initiatives, have lowered Japan's overall inflation rate by approximately 0.7 percentage points, with expectations that the nationwide inflation rate will decrease from 3.3% to 3.1% [1] Group 2 - The USD/JPY is currently supported at the 200-day moving average around 148.40, with indicators showing that bullish momentum remains intact despite some weakening [2] - If the USD/JPY breaks above 149.00, it may face resistance in the 149.40-149.45 range, with a potential challenge to the psychological level of 150.00 [2] - Conversely, if the exchange rate falls below the support level of 148.40, it could lead to a rapid decline towards targets of 148.00, 147.50, and the 147.20-147.15 area, with a shift to a bearish trend if it drops below 147.00 [2]

Core Viewpoint - Scope Ratings has downgraded the outlook for France's sovereign credit rating to negative while maintaining its "AA-" rating, highlighting the country's deteriorating credit situation amid political deadlock and fiscal challenges [1][2] Group 1: Rating Changes and Impacts - This marks the third downgrade for France in two weeks, indicating significant credit deterioration due to weak fiscal conditions and complex political landscape [1] - Previous downgrades by Fitch and Dominica Bond Rating Agency have already impacted the French financial markets [1] Group 2: Political and Fiscal Challenges - President Macron's early elections led to the ruling party losing its parliamentary majority, hindering deficit reduction plans [1] - New Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu has not clearly indicated willingness to compromise on deficit reduction, with opposition parties demanding less stringent measures [1][2] - The Socialist Party holds key seats in parliament, complicating budget consensus efforts [1] Group 3: Economic Outlook - Lecornu aims for a deficit target of around 4.7% for 2025, with a long-term goal of reducing it to below 3% by 2029, but faces significant political opposition [2] - Rising political instability and social unrest are making it difficult to achieve broad political consensus for substantial deficit reduction [2] - Despite unexpected economic growth in the first half of the year, private sector activity fell to a five-year low in September, indicating weakened economic momentum [2] Group 4: Debt Projections - Scope warns that without further fiscal reforms, government debt as a percentage of GDP could rise to 125% by 2030, becoming one of the fastest-growing among similar countries [3] - This trend poses risks to France's fiscal sustainability and could trigger broader financial repercussions across Europe [3]

Core Points - French President Macron appointed his fifth Prime Minister, Sébastien Lecornu, during his second term after the resignation of Élisabeth Borne following a failed confidence vote [1][3] - Lecornu, who has been a loyal member of Macron's team and served as Minister of Defense since 2022, is seen as capable of dialogue and compromise with various political parties [1][3] - The appointment has faced criticism from both the far-right National Rally and the left-wing France Insoumise, who threaten to propose a vote of no confidence if there are no significant policy changes [1][3] Political Context - Lecornu is tasked with addressing France's budgetary challenges but lacks majority support in parliament, necessitating compromises to maintain governance [3] - The appointment has been met with disappointment from the Socialist Party and the Greens, while Marine Le Pen of the National Rally mocked the decision, suggesting it would lead to further failures for Macron [3][4] - Protests erupted across France, with at least 80 demonstrations reported, leading to clashes with police and numerous arrests, reflecting public discontent with the ruling elite's austerity measures [4][5] Social Unrest - The protests, initiated via social media under the slogan "Let's Block Everything," echo the earlier "Yellow Vests" movement, which began over fuel price hikes and evolved into broader opposition against Macron's economic reforms [4][5] - Demonstrators expressed that the root of France's issues lies with Macron himself, calling for his resignation rather than blaming ministers [4] - Lecornu's immediate challenge includes managing the tense protests and preparing for a nationwide strike scheduled for the 18th, alongside addressing the ongoing debt burden that has plagued previous Prime Ministers [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Central Bank of Turkey will continue to maintain its tight monetary policy to combat inflation and stabilize the economy [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy - The Central Bank emphasizes the importance of a tight monetary policy in addressing ongoing inflationary pressures [1] - The decision to sustain the current policy stance reflects the bank's commitment to achieving price stability [1] Group 2: Economic Context - The Central Bank's actions are part of a broader strategy to stabilize the Turkish economy amid challenging economic conditions [1] - Maintaining a tight policy is seen as crucial for restoring investor confidence and supporting economic growth [1]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing heatwave in France has led to significant impacts, including the issuance of orange heat alerts in 84 provinces, the closure of over 1,000 schools, and serious health threats to elderly residents in non-air-conditioned nursing homes, sparking intense political debate over cooling measures [1][3]. Group 1: Political Responses - The leader of the far-right National Rally, Marine Le Pen, has called for a national "air conditioning plan" prioritizing the installation of air conditioning in public service institutions such as schools, hospitals, and nursing homes [3]. - Le Pen criticized the current government for making decisions in air-conditioned offices while ordinary citizens suffer in non-air-conditioned buildings, claiming that austerity measures disproportionately affect the working class [3]. - The proposal challenges the long-standing French perception of air conditioning as noisy, expensive, and environmentally harmful, with only 25% of French households having air conditioning compared to 40% in Italy and Spain [3]. Group 2: Opposition to the Proposal - Le Pen's "air conditioning plan" faced strong backlash from left-wing and green parties, with the Minister for Ecological Transition calling it "ignorant and incompetent" and emphasizing existing laws that ensure cooling services for the elderly [4]. - Former Prime Minister Gabriel Attal suggested that the focus should be on improving building insulation rather than widespread air conditioning [4]. - Green party member Sandrine Rousseau advocated for a return to traditional cooling methods, such as using fans and shutters, as a more sustainable choice [4].