7月7日，中国飞鹤（06186.HK）低开低走，盘中一度跌超18%。截至早盘收盘，股价跌17.37%，报4.71港元/股，总市值约427亿港元。 | 时间区间: | 近3月 | > | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 序号 | 代码 | 了 名称 | 了 机构名称 | 了 研究员 | ▽ ↓研究日期 | 了 最新评级 | 了 上次评级 | Y 调整方向 | 八目 | | 1 | 6186.HK | 中國服務 | 东吴证券 | 赤城 | 2025-05-19 | 买人 | | 首次 | | | 2 | 6186.HK | 中國飛鶴 | Goldman Sachs | Goldman Sachs | 2025-04-16 | 买人 | 中性 | 调高 | 17.4 | | ട | 6186.HK | 中國飛龍 | Goldman Sachs | Goldman Sachs | 2025-04-15 | 采入 | 中性 | 周高 | 111 | | ব | 6186.HK | 中國飛龍 | 海 ...

Core Viewpoint - China Feihe's stock price has significantly dropped due to expected revenue decline in the first half of 2025, with projected earnings of approximately 9.1 billion to 9.3 billion yuan, down from about 10.1 billion yuan in the same period of 2024 [1][4]. Group 1: Company Performance - China Feihe's stock opened down 14.91% on July 7, reaching a low of 4.65 HKD, with a maximum drop exceeding 18% [2]. - The company anticipates a net profit of approximately 1 billion to 1.2 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a decrease from about 1.9 billion yuan in the same period of 2024 [4]. - The company reported a total revenue of 20.749 billion yuan and a net profit of 3.570 billion yuan for the full year of 2024 [4]. Group 2: Industry Context - The infant formula industry in China has faced challenges due to declining birth rates, with a 5% and 10% decrease in industry scale in 2022 and 2023, respectively [5]. - A rebound in birth rates is expected in 2024, which may stabilize the market, with a projected decline of only 1.2% in 2025 [5]. - The company is focusing on high-end products and aims to enhance its market position through differentiated offerings [5]. Group 3: Shareholder Returns - China Feihe plans to use at least 1 billion yuan for share buybacks, reflecting management's confidence in the company's long-term prospects [6]. - The company is expected to distribute at least 2 billion yuan in dividends for the year ending December 31, 2025, despite short-term financial challenges [6]. - In 2024, the company distributed dividends of 0.3264 HKD per share, totaling 2.96 billion HKD, with a dividend payout ratio of approximately 76% [7].

大跌。 受上半年业绩预计下滑影响，港股上市公司中国飞鹤（6186.HK）股价大跌。 公告显示，中国飞鹤预计2025年1月至6月实现收益约91亿元至93亿元，较2024年同期的收益约101亿元下降。 中国飞鹤大跌近20% 7月7日，中国奶粉企业中国飞鹤开盘跌14.91%，报4.85港元，随后盘中一度跌至4.65港元，最大跌幅超18%。 资料显示，公司是中国最早的奶粉企业之一，聚集婴配粉业务，2024年渠道改革效果显现+超高端产品发力推动，公司收入及净利润同比改善，业绩拐点显 现。 东吴证券认为，2019年以前我国婴配粉行业量价齐增，受出生人口减少影响，2022年、2023年行业规模分别同比下滑5%、10%，2024年出生人口回升带动 行业降幅收窄，预计2025年我国婴配粉市场规模同比-1.2%，行业需求边际改善主因2024年出生人口回升带动2025年二段奶粉需求提升；2025年生育补贴政 策频出，未来随着刺激生育政策逐步落地，公司有望受益于行业需求提振。 公司通过新鲜奶源+配方精准化打造差异化产品，聚焦以星飞帆系列为核心的超高端产品，通过星飞帆裂变打造百亿大单品，超高端产品占婴配粉收入比不断 提升。 国元证券表 ...

1.1 摘要 婴幼儿配方食品是专门为满足婴儿和幼儿特定营养需求而设计的食品，旨在模仿母乳 成分或根据特殊医学需求调整配方，提供必要的蛋白质、脂肪、碳水化合物、维生素 和矿物质等营养素。2023 年 2 月 22 日起，婴幼儿配方奶粉新国标正式实施。新国标 的出台为婴幼儿乳粉的配方注册提供了标准依据，新国标不仅细化了婴幼儿配方奶粉 的营养成分要求，还强调了产品的安全性和生产工艺的规范性，要求企业依据新标准 重新提交配方注册申请，确保产品全面符合新国标的各项规定。 1.2 婴幼儿配方食品定义 婴幼儿配方食品是指专为 0~3 岁婴幼儿设计生产的特殊食品，旨在满足其正常生长发 育所需的营养需求。这些食品以乳类及乳蛋白制品、大豆及大豆蛋白制品为主要原 料，并加入适量的维生素、矿物质等营养成分，通过特定的生产工艺加工而成。根据 适用年龄的不同，婴幼儿配方食品可分为婴儿配方食品、较大婴儿配方食品和幼儿配 方食品，以满足不同年龄段婴幼儿的营养需求。 1.3 市场演变 中国婴幼儿配方食品市场的演变可划分为四个关键阶段，历经奠基、海外技术引入、 规范化建设、多元化创新，实现了从初步研发到快速发展的全面变革婴幼儿配方食品 行业。2 ...

Group 1: Company Overview - The company is one of the earliest milk powder enterprises in China, focusing on infant formula business, with a significant performance turning point expected in 2024 due to channel reforms and high-end product development [1] - The company has abundant cash on hand, with a projected dividend payout ratio increasing to 76% in 2024, highlighting its strong dividend attributes [1] Group 2: Product and Brand Strategy - The company emphasizes high-end product development, particularly through the "Xing Fei Fan" series, which has seen the proportion of high-end products in infant formula revenue increase from 22% in 2016 to 75% in 2024 [1] - Marketing strategies include high-frequency offline interactions and continuous upgrades to the online membership system to enhance consumer engagement and data retention [1] Group 3: Industry Trends and Market Position - The infant formula industry is expected to see a rebound in demand, with a projected decline in market size narrowing due to a recovery in birth rates in 2024 [2] - The market concentration in the infant formula sector is increasing, with the top five companies' market share rising from 35% in 2015 to 66% in 2024, indicating potential for further growth [2] Group 4: Financial Projections - Revenue projections for the company are expected to reach 221.7 billion, 236.3 billion, and 251.7 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 6.9%, 6.6%, and 6.5% respectively [3] - The company's net profit forecasts for the same period are 38.7 billion, 43.0 billion, and 47.3 billion yuan, with growth rates of 8.4%, 11%, and 10.2% respectively, indicating a strong financial outlook [3]

证 券 研 究 报 告 ◼ 政策引导我国生育趋势。建国以来，我国生育政策经历鼓励生育、优化质量、计划生育、放开限制等变迁，现今转向全面促进生 育。同时，各级政府发布生育/养育帮扶措施，落实经济支持，推动文化、服务、时间等全方位配套，助力国民生育意愿回暖。 • 复盘政策有效性：49年鼓励生育政策后，出生人数一路走高至54年的2288万人；1954年提倡节育，出生人口数量开始下滑；而后经计划生育 政策，我国出生人数总体平稳下行。15年全面二孩政策不及预期后，政策逐步放宽。24年在生肖龙年和促进政策加持下，出生人数止跌回升。 • 政策全面性与补贴力度：共建生育友好社会，文化、服务等建设全面跟上。以呼市的3胎总计16万的补贴力度，将较大程度帮助0-3岁孩子养育。 ◼ 促进政策改善母婴消费板块预期，相关标的基本面也将随适龄婴幼儿成长而陆续受益。同时，国货概念在母婴板块同样高歌猛进。 ◼ 从生育到养育，孩子成长的路也是母婴消费品受益的路，相关医疗服务、乳制品、轻工、洗护、童装、母婴连锁标的，崛起在即。 ◼ 风险提示：居民收入预期下行、宏观经济增长不及预期、生育政策激励不及预期、行业竞争加剧、适龄人口数量下行。 政策促进生 ...