原标题：研究值1.89%仅降1BP；马年人身险产品预定利率走向猜想！多家机构预计不变… 来源：险企高参 2025年，受5年期以上LPR维持稳定、5年期定期存款利率下行节奏逐步放缓、10年期国债收益率中枢上 行但整体仍处低位影响，共同促使预定利率研究值降幅收敛。 1月20日，中国保险行业协会公布2025年四季度普通型人身险产品预定利率研究值——1.89%。较上季 度的1.90%仅微降一个基点，降幅较此前季度显著收敛，距离在售普通型人身保险产品预定利率最高值 （2.0%）差距仅为 11bps，未触发此前监管约定的"连续 2 个季度高 25 bps 及以上"的调整产品预定利率 的阈值条件。 2025年全年，预定利率研究值经历了四次调整，1月为2.34%，4月降至2.13%，7月进一步回落至 1.99%，10月微调至1.90%。根据中国保险行业协会的规定，预定利率研究值每季度发布，核心参考5年 期以上LPR、5年期定期存款利率、10年期国债收益率三大指标，结合保险行业资产负债管理、防范"利 差损"要求，经过专家论证、多方研判后确定。 2025年，受5年期以上LPR维持稳定、5年期定期存款利率下行节奏逐步放缓、10年期 ...

银行大额存单利率步入"0字头"时代 国际金价屡创新高 回调风险需警惕 大额存单利率步入"0字头"时代，银行正通过"短期化、高门槛、低利率"的组合策略开启负债端深度调 整。2026年开年，超40家银行发布的首期产品显示，1年期以下利率普遍跌破1%，3年期多低于2%，5 年期近乎绝迹，而百万元起存门槛产品悄然浮现。业内专家指出，这一结构性变化是银行业在净息差持 续低于1.5%的严峻压力下，为配合实体经济融资成本下行、实现自身稳健经营的必然选择。展望全 年，专家普遍认为，在适度宽松货币环境与银行息差压力持续的双重作用下，大额存单利率低位运行将 成常态，这标志着居民资产配置逻辑与银行负债管理模式正经历深刻重构。（经济参考报） 中金公司：2025年ETF市场增长空间充足 规模增速或放缓 中金公司研报指出，2025年ETF市场多点开花，规模与结构更为优化。总结来看，我们认为ETF市场无 论在长期维度还是今年都有较充足的增长空间，在公募整体市场内的份额还将继续上升，但今年的规模 增速或将继续放缓。同时结合资金流向与投资者结构的信息，我们认为无论对于宽基、行业主题、还是 跨境产品而言，资管机构资金的重要性都有明显提升，基金管 ...

Core Insights - The non-listed life insurance companies in China reported a dual growth in premium income and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, with total insurance business income exceeding 1 trillion yuan and net profit surpassing 60 billion yuan [1][3]. Premium Income - In the first three quarters of 2025, 57 non-listed life insurance companies achieved a total insurance business income of 1.07 trillion yuan, marking an approximate 11% increase [3]. - Two companies, Taikang Life and China Post Life, reported insurance business incomes of 196.87 billion yuan and 151.31 billion yuan respectively, significantly outpacing the third-ranked Xintai Life, which had an income of 47.23 billion yuan [3]. - Some companies, such as Huahui Life and Changsheng Life, experienced substantial declines in insurance business income, with decreases of 60.59% and 36.11% respectively [3][4]. Net Profit - The 56 non-listed life insurance companies reported a total net profit of 619.63 billion yuan, reflecting a remarkable growth rate of 183% [6]. - Taikang Life led the net profit rankings with 24.77 billion yuan, a 169% increase from the previous year, while China Post Life followed with 9.13 billion yuan [6]. - The top five companies in net profit included four bank-affiliated insurers, highlighting the significant value of bancassurance channels [6]. Investment Performance - Investment income played a crucial role in the positive profit performance, with many companies reporting investment yields above 5% [8]. - The favorable performance of the capital market, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 15.84%, contributed to the growth in investment income [8]. - The allocation of insurance funds to equity assets increased, with the balance of stock investments exceeding 3 trillion yuan, up by 8.92% from the previous quarter [8]. Future Outlook - The investment landscape for life insurance companies may face challenges due to declining long-term interest rates, which could lower net investment yields [9]. - However, structural market conditions and high dividend strategies may provide opportunities for insurers to secure returns [9].

Core Insights - The insurance industry is experiencing a shift towards new products following the adjustment of the life insurance predetermined interest rates, leading to the discontinuation of "excessive limit" products and the introduction of new offerings [1][2][4] Product Launch Statistics - As of September 22, 993 life insurance products, 652 annuity products, and 990 health insurance products have been launched in the year, with 415, 257, and 266 of these products respectively launched after August 1 [2][3] - The proportion of new products launched after August 1 is 41.8% for life insurance, 39% for annuity insurance, and 26.9% for health insurance [2] Product Type Analysis - The majority of newly launched products are dividend-type and ordinary-type insurance, with fewer universal insurance products. Specifically, 408 dividend-type life insurance products account for 41% of the total, while 69 universal life insurance products make up 6.9% [3][4] - For annuity insurance, 222 dividend-type products represent 34%, while 54 universal annuity products account for 8% [3] Shift in Sales Strategy - Insurance companies are actively promoting dividend insurance, which has shown positive sales results. This is attributed to the product's design that offers a "guaranteed + floating return" mechanism, allowing for shared risk between insurers and consumers [4][5] - The recent adjustment in predetermined interest rates has made dividend insurance more attractive compared to ordinary insurance, with the new maximum rates set at 2.0% for ordinary and 1.75% for dividend insurance [5] Market Response and Future Outlook - Consumer acceptance of dividend insurance is gradually increasing, with sales improving as understanding of the product grows [5][6] - A number of A-share listed insurance companies plan to enhance their promotion of dividend insurance, with significant increases in the proportion of premium income from dividend insurance reported [6]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [7][25]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the scheduled adjustment of the predetermined interest rate is expected to positively impact the optimization of liability costs and the value of participating insurance options [3][6]. - The predetermined interest rate for ordinary life insurance products has been set at 1.99%, which is 51 basis points below the upper limit of 2.5%, triggering a required adjustment [4][5]. - The adjustment of the predetermined interest rates for various insurance products has been implemented, with ordinary products reduced by 50 basis points to 2.0%, and participating products by 25 basis points to 1.75% [5][6]. - The report emphasizes the importance of managing liability costs and the transformation of participating insurance products as key factors influencing company valuations [6][7]. Summary by Sections Predetermined Interest Rate Adjustments - The report notes that the predetermined interest rate research value has exceeded the upper limit for two consecutive quarters, necessitating a reduction in new product rates by September 1 [4]. - The adjustments made by major insurers like Ping An and China Life reflect a strategic response to market conditions and regulatory requirements [5]. Valuation and Performance - The report suggests that the core concern affecting the valuation of life insurance companies is the risk of interest spread losses, with a focus on controlling liability costs [6]. - The report provides data on the new business value (NBV) break-even yield for major insurers, indicating slight year-over-year declines for companies like China Life and Ping An [6]. Market Outlook - The report expresses optimism regarding the insurance sector's performance, driven by declining new liability costs, increased value of participating insurance options, and stable long-term interest rates [7]. - Specific companies recommended for investment include China Life, New China Life, China Pacific Insurance, China People’s Insurance, Ping An, ZhongAn Online, and China Property Insurance [7].

Core Viewpoint - The insurance industry is facing significant challenges due to the decline in LPR and bank deposit rates, necessitating a shift from a "spread-dependent" model to a "three-spread balance" approach to mitigate interest spread loss risks [1][2][3] Group 1: Interest Rate Impact - The decline in interest rates is a critical factor affecting the insurance industry, particularly life insurance, as it compresses new investment income [1] - The upper limit of the preset interest rate for ordinary life insurance products has decreased from 4.025% to 2.5%, with a substantial number of high preset rate policies still in force [1] - The insurance industry must prevent interest spread loss risks to maintain operational stability and avoid systemic risks [1] Group 2: Three-Spread Balance Model - The key to risk management in the new market environment is constructing a "three-spread balance" profit model, focusing on interest spread, mortality spread, and expense spread [2] - Insurers need to transition from high-guarantee products to "low-guarantee + high-floating" products to stabilize interest spreads [2] - Dynamic pricing mechanisms linked to government bond yields or LPR should be introduced to mitigate cost-locking risks [2] Group 3: Enhancing Mortality and Expense Spreads - Increasing contributions from mortality and expense spreads is essential for insurers in a low-interest-rate environment [3] - Insurers should enhance the sales of health and term life insurance products and optimize pricing assumptions using more accurate mortality and annuity tables [3] - Cost control measures must be strictly implemented, including organizational optimization and digital transformation to reduce operational costs [3] Group 4: Opportunities in Challenges - The low-interest-rate environment presents both challenges and opportunities for insurers to reshape competitive advantages [3] - Insurers must abandon the "scale-first" development model and focus on product innovation, asset allocation optimization, and expense management to achieve sustainable development [3]