⚫ 根据公司 2025 年三季报，我们维持 2025-2027 年每股收益预测为 0.54/0.69/0.85 元，根据可比公司维持给予 25 年 38 倍 PE，对应目标价 20.52 元，维持"买入"评 级。 风险提示 乐普医疗 300003.SZ 公司研究 | 季报点评 经营边际向好，医美放量在即 —乐普医疗 2025 年三季报点评 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 研发进度和新产品商业化不及预期；集采或市场竞争加剧冲击；大额计提减值等风险。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 7,980 | 6,103 | 6,683 | 7,424 | 8,272 | | 同比增长 (%) | -24.8% | -23.5% | 9.5% | 11.1% | 11.4% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 1,547 | 253 | 1,202 | 1,546 | 1,886 | | 同比增长 (%) | -41.0% | -83.6% | 375.0 ...

乐普医疗(300003)在业绩说明会上表示，植入式脑深部神经刺激器（DBS）预计近期获批上市，明年有 望贡献收入，植入式心脏收缩力调节器（CCM）准备明年一、二季度申报，神经调控业务板块将为公 司业绩增长提供新逻辑。公司在集采大环境下，致力于在重大临床需求疾病诊疗领域内，研发产品技术 壁垒更高、市场竞争格局更好的植介入医疗器械，从而减少集采政策对公司业务的影响。 ...

Core Insights - The company reported a slight decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, but showed significant growth in the second quarter, indicating a potential recovery trend [1] Financial Performance - For H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 3.369 billion yuan (YoY -0.43%) and a net profit of 691 million yuan (YoY -0.91%), with a non-recurring net profit of 662 million yuan (YoY +2.33%) [1] - In Q2 2025, revenue reached 1.633 billion yuan (YoY +11.72%), net profit was 312 million yuan (YoY +45.05%), and non-recurring net profit was 325 million yuan (YoY +70.31%) [1] Business Segments - The core business remains stable, with the medical device segment generating revenue of 1.776 billion yuan (+1.3%), and the cardiovascular intervention segment achieving 1.239 billion yuan (+7.57%) [2] - The structural heart segment saw significant growth, with revenue of 329 million yuan (+32.06%), driven by the acceleration of biodegradable occluders and aortic valve products [2] - The pharmaceutical segment reported total revenue of 1.117 billion yuan (-1.52%), with formulation business revenue at 975 million yuan (+3.89%) and raw materials revenue at 142 million yuan (-27.44%) [2] - The medical services and health management segment generated revenue of 475 million yuan (-4.05%), with the Hefei Cardiovascular Hospital contributing 83 million yuan (+3.51%) [2] Innovation and Growth Potential - The company is advancing in innovative drugs, medical aesthetics, and brain-machine interface sectors, which are expected to drive new growth [3] - The innovative drug segment includes a self-developed GLP-1 three-target drug, with several candidates in various clinical trial phases, indicating a strong pipeline [3] - The consumer medical segment is focusing on ophthalmology and dermatology, with products like the "童颜针" and various aesthetic injectables set for market launch [3] - In innovative devices, the company is concentrating on brain-machine interfaces, with a deep brain stimulation device already submitted for registration [3] Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 6.618 billion, 7.363 billion, and 8.347 billion yuan, with respective growth rates of 8.44%, 11.26%, and 13.35% [4] - Expected net profits for the same period are 1.120 billion, 1.293 billion, and 1.546 billion yuan, with growth rates of 353.48%, 15.43%, and 19.63% [4] - The current price-to-earnings ratios are projected to be 32, 28, and 23 times for the respective years [4]

Financial Performance - The company reported a significant improvement in operating cash flow, with a year-on-year increase of 300.52% [2] - Revenue from the cardiovascular interventional business reached 1.239 billion, a growth of 7.57% year-on-year [2] - The overall revenue and profit for the first half of the year remained stable compared to the previous year [2] Business Segments Medical Devices - The in vitro diagnostics and surgical anesthesia segments experienced slight declines in revenue due to increased competition and procurement rhythms [2] - The skin care business aims for sales of 500-600 million in 2026, with a net profit margin of 45-50% [3] Innovative Drugs - The innovative drug segment is the largest in terms of R&D investment, focusing on metabolic diseases [4] - The company is optimistic about the potential of its innovative drugs, particularly in weight management and metabolic disorders [4] Strategic Adjustments - The company has undergone organizational restructuring to stabilize its performance after a period of significant fluctuations [2] - Future growth is expected to be driven by strategic emerging business segments, including dermatology and innovative drugs [2] Market Strategy - The company plans to maintain a sales expense ratio below 20% for its medical aesthetics products, focusing on scientific and cost-effective marketing strategies [8] - The pricing strategy for the "童颜针" (youthful needle) series aims to capture a broader market by offering competitive pricing [15] Regulatory and Competitive Landscape - The company anticipates a reduction in prices for drug-coated balloons due to procurement policies, which may increase market penetration [9] - The competitive landscape for GLP-1 drugs is intensifying, but the company remains confident in its product competitiveness [20] Future Outlook - Analysts project a net profit of around 1 billion for the current year, with a stable outlook for the formulation business [2] - The company aims for a revenue growth of 10-15% next year, driven by structural heart disease and pharmaceutical products [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported its 1H25 performance, showing a slight decline in revenue but a positive trend in net profit for the second quarter, indicating stabilization in its existing business and potential for future growth through new product launches [1][2][4]. Financial Performance - 1H25 revenue was 3.369 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.4% - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 691 million yuan, down 0.9%, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 662 million yuan, up 2.3% - 2Q25 revenue reached 1.633 billion yuan, an increase of 11.7% year-on-year - 2Q25 net profit attributable to shareholders was 310 million yuan, up 45.0%, and net profit excluding non-recurring items was 325 million yuan, up 70.3% [1]. Business Segments - Medical device revenue for 1H25 was 1.776 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.3% - Coronary revenue increased by 3.6% - Structural heart disease revenue rose by 32.1% - Surgical anesthesia revenue decreased by 10.29% - In-vitro diagnostics revenue fell by 17.35% [2]. - Pharmaceutical revenue was 1.117 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.5%, but increased by 79.3% quarter-on-quarter - The revenue from formulations (generic drugs) was 975 million yuan, up 3.9% year-on-year, and 1.42 billion yuan from raw materials, down 27.4% year-on-year [2]. - Medical services and health management revenue was 475 million yuan, down 4.1% year-on-year [2]. New Product Development - The company is focusing on several growth areas: - Innovative drugs: The subsidiary Shanghai Minwei Biotech is developing a triple receptor agonist candidate, MWN101, which has completed Phase II clinical trials for obesity and type 2 diabetes [3]. - Consumer healthcare: Products like polylactic acid facial fillers and sodium hyaluronate injections have received approval and are in commercialization [3]. - Neuroscience: The company anticipates approval for its deep brain stimulation device in Q4 2025 and is exploring further developments in brain-computer interfaces and artificial intelligence [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains its profit forecasts for 2025/26, with a current price corresponding to a P/E ratio of 27/24 times - The target price has been raised by 60% to 24 yuan, indicating a 32% upside potential from the current price, corresponding to a P/E ratio of 35/32 times for 2025/26 [4].