更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 2 月 2 日星期一 研究员：李方磊 从业资格：F03104461 交易咨询资格：Z0021311 联系方式：19339940612 Morning session notice 早盘提示 ddddddddddddddddddddddddddd | | | | | 【交易策略】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 农林畜 | 红枣 | 震 偏弱 | 荡 | 【行情复盘】 周五 CJ605 合约收盘价 8950 元/吨，日涨幅 0.62%。CJ609 合约收盘价 9165 元/吨， 日涨幅 0.71%。 【重要资讯】 1.上周 36 家样本点物理库存在 13143 吨，较上周减少 925 吨。样本点库存环比下 降。 2.周五河北特级红枣批发价 9.31 元/公斤，日环比+0.01 元/公斤。 3.周五广东如意坊市场到货车辆 6 车，日环比-1 车。 4.周五红枣仓单 3317 张，日环比+4 张。 【市场逻辑】 上周红枣期价重心小幅抬升。当下红枣基本面可供交易信息有限， ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The overall investment ratings for different sectors are as follows: the sugar sector is rated as "volatile" [1]; the jujube sector is rated as "volatile" [4]; the rubber and synthetic rubber sectors in the energy and chemical industry are rated as "volatile" [5] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The global sugar supply in the 2025/26 season may have a surplus of 470,000 tons, and both the domestic and foreign sugar markets are expected to be volatile. The SR605 contract is advised to hold existing short - positions, and new investors can short on rallies. Options can consider a double - selling strategy [1] - The jujube futures price has slightly rebounded from the bottom, but there are still insufficient long - term positive factors. Investors are advised to take a bearish view and be cautious when bottom - fishing. The CJ605 contract is recommended to short on rallies [4] - The natural rubber market has a mixed fundamental situation, with overseas raw material prices remaining firm and domestic inventories in Qingdao continuing to accumulate. The synthetic rubber market has supply pressure. Both are expected to be volatile. For the RU, NR, and BR contracts, a high - selling and low - buying strategy is recommended [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Sugar Market Review - The SR605 contract closed at 5,285 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily decline of 0.06%, and the night - session closed at 5,257 yuan/ton. The SR609 contract closed at 5,291 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.15%, and the night - session closed at 5,268 yuan/ton [1] Important Information - As of January 8, 2026, in the 2025/26 season in India's Maharashtra state, 197 sugar mills were in operation, 2 less than the same period last season. The crushed cane was 63.292 million tons, an increase of 19.878 million tons. The sugar production was 5.6297 million tons with an average sugar yield of 8.89% [1] - As of the week ending January 7, the sugar waiting to be shipped at Brazilian ports was 1.5823 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 165,300 tons or 11.66% [1] - As of January 7, 2026, in the 2025/26 season in Thailand, the cumulative crushed cane was 16.9782 million tons, a decrease of 5.765 million tons or 25.35% compared to the same period last year. The sugar production was 1.5309 million tons, a decrease of 567,300 tons or 27.03% [1] - Yesterday, the number of sugar warrants in Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 8,939, a day - on - day increase of 2,934 [1] Market Logic - Overseas: After a small rebound, the ICE raw sugar price has fallen again. The global sugar supply in the 25/26 season may have a surplus of 470,000 tons, and the overseas sugar market may be volatile [1] - Domestic: Zhengzhou sugar has been consolidating horizontally. The night - session was slightly weaker due to the impact of raw sugar. There is strong resistance at the 5,300 integer mark, and the market is expected to be range - bound [1] Trading Strategy - Hold existing short - positions in the SR605 contract, pay attention to the resistance range of 5,300 - 5,315. New investors can short on rallies. Consider a double - selling strategy for options [1] Jujube Market Review - The CJ605 contract closed at 9,160 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily increase of 0.11%. The CJ609 contract closed at 9,335 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.48% [4] Important Information - The physical inventory of 36 sample points last week was 15,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 349 tons or 2.23%, and a year - on - year increase of 41.27% [4] - The average daily arrival of goods at the Guangdong Ruyifang market last week was 6.20 trucks, an increase of 0.80 trucks compared to the previous week. The market supply is sufficient, and the price dropped slightly by 0.20 yuan/kg [4] - Yesterday, the wholesale price of premium jujubes in Hebei was 9.49 yuan/kg, a day - on - day decrease of 0.03 yuan/kg [4] - Yesterday, the number of arrival trucks at the Guangdong Ruyifang market was 4, a day - on - day decrease of 2 [4] - Yesterday, the number of jujube warrants was 2,820, a day - on - day increase of 297 [4] Market Logic - The jujube futures price has slightly risen from the bottom. As the supply - side negative factors are digested, the market focuses on pre - festival stocking demand. However, there are still insufficient long - term positive factors, and the market may not have much room for a large - scale rebound [4] Trading Strategy - Short the CJ605 contract on rallies [4] Rubber and Synthetic Rubber Market Review - As of January 12, the RU2605 contract closed at 16,130 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.62%. The NR2602 contract closed at 13,100 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.46%. The BR2602 contract closed at 12,070 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.46% [5] Important Information - Yesterday, the price of raw rubber latex in Thailand was 57 Thai baht/kg, and the cup lump price was 52.2 Thai baht/kg. The price of Yunnan rubber blocks was 13,200 yuan/ton [5] - As of January 11, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 568,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 19,800 tons or 3.62% [5] - This week, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.78%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.75 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 13.97 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 55.50%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.43 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 3.37 percentage points [5] - The price of butadiene in Shandong's central region was around 9,450 - 9,500 yuan/ton, and the ex - tank self - pick - up price in East China was around 9,000 - 9,100 yuan/ton [5] - The prices of cis - polybutadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber in the Shandong market continued to fall. The price of Daqing BR9000 in the Shandong market dropped 50 yuan/ton to 11,900 yuan/ton, and the price of Qilu styrene - butadiene 1502 dropped 100 yuan/ton to 12,100 yuan/ton [5] Market Logic - Natural rubber: The futures price rebounded slightly yesterday. Overseas raw material prices are firm, but Qingdao's inventory is accumulating. The short - term fundamentals are mixed, and the market mainly focuses on the impact of macro funds [5] - Synthetic rubber: The upstream butadiene price is strong, but there is supply pressure on cis - polybutadiene rubber. The BR futures price has encountered strong resistance near the previous high and has corrected. The market focuses on the impact of overseas situations on the energy and chemical sector [5] Trading Strategy - For the RU contract, pay attention to the range of 15,750 - 16,400 yuan/ton; for the NR contract, pay attention to the range of 12,700 - 13,300 yuan/ton; for the BR contract, pay attention to the range of 11,900 - 12,400 yuan/ton. Adopt a high - selling and low - buying strategy [5]

1. Report's Industry Investment Ratings - Sugar: Oscillation [1] - Red dates: Oscillation [4] - Rubber series: Oscillation [5] 2. Core Views of the Report - Sugar market has supply pressure in both domestic and overseas markets in the medium and long term, with the external market lacking breakthrough momentum and the internal market affected by the overall commodity sector and the external market, and it's not recommended for non - participants to chase the rising market [1] - Red dates' short - term price is oscillating strongly, but there are still insufficient positive factors in the medium and long term, and the market may not have much room for a significant rebound [4] - Natural rubber may enter a consolidation phase recently, and synthetic rubber has mixed long and short factors, and there is pressure on the upper side of the market [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Sugar - **Market Review**: On Friday, the closing price of SR605 contract was 5,288 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.17%, and the night - session closing price was 5,284 yuan/ton; the closing price of SR609 contract was 5,299 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.17%, and the night - session closing price was 5,297 yuan/ton [1] - **Important Information**: On Friday, the spot price of white sugar in Guangxi was 5,321 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton; as of January 7, the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped at Brazilian ports was 158.23 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 16.53 million tons, or 11.66%; in the 2025/26 sugar - making season as of January 7, Thailand's cumulative sugarcane crushing volume decreased by 25.35%, sugar production decreased by 27.03% year - on - year; on Friday, the number of white sugar warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 6,005, unchanged from the previous day [1] - **Market Logic**: The external market is mainly concerned about the output in the Northern Hemisphere, lacking breakthrough momentum, and is expected to oscillate in a range; the domestic market is affected by the overall commodity sector and the external market, and the market sentiment is neutral to strong, but there is still supply pressure [1] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold the previous short positions of SR605, pay attention to the performance of the pressure range of 5,300 - 5,315; wait for short - selling opportunities for non - participants; consider the double - selling strategy for options [1] Red Dates - **Market Review**: On Friday, the closing price of CJ605 contract was 9,150 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.83%; the closing price of CJ609 contract was 9,310 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.76% [4] - **Important Information**: This week, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 15,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.23% and a year - on - year increase of 41.27%; last week, the daily average arrival volume at the Guangdong Ruyifang Market increased by 0.8 carriages, and the price decreased by 0.2 yuan/kg; on the previous day, the wholesale price of Hebei special - grade red dates was 9.52 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day; on the previous day, the number of arrival vehicles at the Guangdong Ruyifang Market decreased by 1; on Friday, the number of red date warehouse receipts increased by 260 to 2,523 [4] - **Market Logic**: The short - term price of red dates is oscillating strongly. As the negative supply factors are gradually digested, the market focuses on the pre - holiday stocking demand. However, there are still insufficient positive factors in the medium and long term [4] - **Trading Strategy**: Short CJ605 contract on rallies [4] Rubber Series - **Market Review**: As of January 9, the closing price of RU2605 contract was 16,030 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.56%; the closing price of NR2602 contract was 12,950 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.88%; the closing price of BR2602 contract was 12,015 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 1.48% [5] - **Important Information**: On Friday, the price of Thai raw material glue was 56 Thai baht/kg, and the price of cup rubber was 52.2 Thai baht/kg; as of January 4, the general trade inventory of natural rubber samples in Qingdao increased by 16,900 tons to 460,300 tons, an increase of 3.80% compared with the previous period; the total inventory of bonded and general trade in Qingdao increased by 23,500 tons to 548,300 tons, an increase of 4.48% compared with the previous period; this week, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire and full - steel tire sample enterprises decreased both week - on - week and year - on - year [5] - **Market Logic**: Natural rubber first rose and then fell last week. Supply is expected to decrease next week, demand is expected to recover but may be restricted by inventory, and inventory has continued to accumulate recently; synthetic rubber's BR main contract continued to strengthen last week. The price of raw material butadiene is expected to remain firm, and there are mixed long and short factors [5] - **Trading Strategy**: Pay attention to the activity range of 15,750 - 16,400 for RU, 12,700 - 13,300 for NR, and 11,900 - 12,400 for BR; consider taking profit and leaving the market for the previous long positions of the rubber series [6]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for the sugar sector in the agricultural, forestry, livestock group is "sideways"; for the rubber series in the energy and chemical sector, it's "sideways" for natural rubber and synthetic rubber, with synthetic rubber showing a "sideways with a slight upward bias" [1][4] Group 2: Core Views - For sugar, externally, the ICE raw sugar price increase has been limited by the short - term trading range due to a lack of information and long - term supply pressure. Domestically, although the Zhengzhou sugar price is slightly stronger with the support of the overall commodity market and the start of the Spring Festival stocking, the increasing supply from Guangxi may drag down the price. The short - term upward trend may lack continuous momentum [1] - For rubber, natural rubber is supported by rising overseas raw material prices and positive market sentiment despite increasing domestic inventories. The short - term upward trend has resistance. Synthetic rubber is supported by rising raw material prices, but high - price transactions are difficult due to downstream price - pressing. The upward trend also has challenges [4] Group 3: Summary by Category Sugar - **Market Review**: On January 8, SR605 closed at 5281 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.42%, and its night - session closed at 5286 yuan/ton; SR609 closed at 5293 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.34%, and its night - session closed at 5299 yuan/ton [1] - **Important News**: The spot price of Guangxi sugar increased by 17 yuan/ton to 5314 yuan/ton. As of January 5, 2026, in India's Maharashtra state, 195 sugar mills were in operation, 4 less than the same period last season, but the sugar output reached 532.27 tons. Bihar state plans to expand sugarcane planting. In Yunnan, the sugar output as of the end of December 2025/26 season was 39.23 tons, an increase of 6.54 tons year - on - year. In Guangxi, 73 sugar mills were in operation as of December 31, 2025/26 season, 1 less than the same period last year, and the sugar output decreased by 80.95 tons year - on - year [1] - **Market Logic**: Externally, the raw sugar market is calm, and the price is in a sideways range. Domestically, the overall commodity market supports the Zhengzhou sugar price, but the increasing supply from Guangxi may limit the upward movement [1] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold the previous short positions in SR605 and observe the performance in the 5300 - 5315 pressure range. Those not yet in the market should wait for short - selling opportunities. Consider the double - selling strategy for options [1] Rubber - **Market Review**: On January 8, RU2605 closed at 16180 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.81%; NR2602 closed at 13150 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 1.08%; BR2602 closed at 12155 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 2.75% [4] - **Important News**: The raw material prices in Thailand increased slightly. As of January 4, 2026, the natural rubber inventory in Qingdao increased. The prices of some rubber products, such as whole - latex and 20 - grade Thai standard rubber, also increased. The price of butadiene rose, and the prices of synthetic rubbers such as cis - butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber increased [4] - **Market Logic**: Natural rubber is supported by cost and market sentiment, but there is resistance in the short - term upward trend. Synthetic rubber is supported by cost, but high - price transactions are difficult [4] - **Trading Strategy**: The pressure ranges for RU, NR, and BR are 16400 - 16500, 13300 - 13400, and 12200 - 12400 respectively. Consider partial profit - taking for previous long positions, and stop - profit and exit when facing strong pressure or a change in market sentiment. Those not yet in the market are recommended to wait and see [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings were provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The sugar market is expected to be bearish in the medium to long - term due to increasing domestic sugar production and overseas supply pressure [1] - The jujube market has limited upside potential in the medium to long - term, despite short - term signs of stabilization [4] - The rubber market may face a correction in the short - term, and the upward momentum of synthetic rubber prices may be hindered [5] 3. Summary by Variety Sugar - **Market Performance**: SR605 contract closed at 5258 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily decline of 0.10%, and 5244 yuan/ton at night [1] - **Important Information**: Guangxi spot price rose 10 yuan/ton; India's 2026 January sugar quota decreased by 50,000 tons; Thailand's sugar production decreased by 15.83% year - on - year; Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange's sugar warehouse receipts increased by 144 [1] - **Market Logic**: ICE raw sugar faced upward pressure after previous positive news was digested; the domestic sugar market is dull with bearish medium - to - long - term expectations due to increasing new sugar supply [1] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see during the holiday, reduce previous long positions or buy out - of - the - money put options [1] Jujube - **Market Performance**: CJ605 contract closed at 9020 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily increase of 0.56% [4] - **Important Information**: Sample jujube inventory decreased by 1.30% week - on - week, Hebei's wholesale price decreased, Guangdong's market arrivals increased, and warehouse receipts increased [4] - **Market Logic**: Inventory is in the seasonal destocking period but remains high; there are few medium - to - long - term positive factors, and short - term trading is expected to be range - bound [4] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions in CJ605 contract and wait for short - selling opportunities for non - participants [4] Rubber - **Market Performance**: RU2605 contract closed at 15670 yuan/ton with a 0.03% increase; NR2602 contract closed at 12690 yuan/ton with a 0.20% increase; BR2602 contract closed at 11565 yuan/ton with a 0.30% decrease [5] - **Important Information**: Thai raw material prices were stable, Qingdao rubber inventory increased, tire production capacity utilization rates changed, and rubber prices were mostly stable [5] - **Market Logic**: Natural rubber may face a correction due to eased overseas tensions, port inventory accumulation, and potential decline in tire production; synthetic rubber price upward momentum may be hindered by a stalemate in the spot market and the drag of natural rubber [5] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see for the rubber sector and consider taking profits on previous long positions [5]

Group 1: Industry Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for different sectors are as follows: sugar in the agricultural, forestry, and livestock sector is rated as "volatile"; jujube in the same sector is also rated as "volatile"; rubber series in the energy and chemical sector is rated as a combination of "volatile" for natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, and synthetic rubber [1][4][5]. Group 2: Core Views - For the sugar market, overseas sugar supply pressure remains due to increasing Indian sugar production, and both domestic and overseas sugar markets have a bearish outlook in the medium to long - term. For the jujube market, although there is a seasonal de - stocking, the total inventory is still high, and there are insufficient positive factors for a significant price rebound in the medium to long - term. For the rubber market, natural rubber may face a correction due to eased overseas tensions and continued inventory accumulation, and the upward momentum of synthetic rubber prices may be hindered [1][4][5]. Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs Sugar Market Review - On the previous trading day, the SR605 contract closed at 5,253 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.61%, and the night - session closed at 5,263 yuan/ton [1]. Important Information - The spot price of white sugar in Guangxi decreased by 26 yuan/ton to 5,299 yuan/ton. The price ranges of sugar - making groups and processing plants also had different degrees of decline. As of December 27, 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, Thailand's cumulative sugarcane crushing volume decreased by 16.71% year - on - year, and sugar production decreased by 15.83%. As of December 15, 2025, India's sugar production in the 2025/26 season increased by 27.69% year - on - year. The number of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange's white sugar warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 5,038 [1]. Market Logic - The ICE raw sugar price stabilized after the previous positive news was digested. The domestic sugar market was quiet in terms of news, and the fundamental expectations changed little. The significant rebound of the previous domestic sugar futures was mainly due to the overseas market and the departure of short - selling funds. Currently, domestic sugar mills are in full - swing production, and new sugar will be on the market at a high speed in the future [1]. Trading Strategy - Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude towards the SR605 contract, and partially take profit on the previously held call options [1]. Jujube Market Review - On the previous trading day, the CJ605 contract closed at 8,970 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.11% [4]. Important Information - The physical inventory of 36 sample points last week was 15,898 tons, a decrease of 1.30% week - on - week and an increase of 37.17% year - on - year. The wholesale price of top - grade jujubes in Hebei decreased by 0.03 yuan/kg. The number of arrival vehicles at the Guangdong Ruyifang Market increased by 1. The number of jujube warehouse receipts increased by 79 to 1,171 [4]. Market Logic - The jujube inventory is in the seasonal de - stocking period, but the total inventory is still at a historical high. After the supply negative factors are gradually digested, the market focuses on demand. The futures price has received some support after falling to the previous low. In the medium to long - term, there are insufficient positive factors, and the futures price may not have much room for a significant rebound. In the short - term, it may fluctuate at a low level without new news and capital injection [4]. Trading Strategy - Hold short positions in the CJ605 contract or take profit and exit [4]. Rubber Market Review - As of December 29, the RU2605 contract closed at 15,665 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.73%; the NR2602 contract closed at 12,665 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.71%; the BR2602 contract closed at 11,600 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.30% [5]. Important Information - The price of raw material glue in Thailand and the prices in Hainan remained unchanged. As of December 21, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased by 3.28% week - on - week. The social inventory of natural rubber in China increased by 2.5%. The capacity utilization rates of semi - steel tire and all - steel tire sample enterprises decreased. The prices of various rubber products had different degrees of changes. The price of butadiene had different price ranges in different regions, and the prices of cis - butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber in Shandong market increased [5]. Market Logic - The natural rubber price was weak. The easing of overseas tensions limited the increase in Thai raw material prices, and the port inventory continued to accumulate. In the context of the release of previous positive factors and the weakening of the commodity market atmosphere, the natural rubber may face a correction. For synthetic rubber, the rising butadiene price supports the cis - butadiene rubber price, but the stalemate in the spot market negotiation and the drag of the natural rubber futures may hinder the upward momentum of the BR futures price [5]. Trading Strategy - Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude towards the rubber series, and consider taking profit on the previously held long positions in a timely manner [5].

Group 1: Overall Information - Report date: December 8, 2025 [1] - Researcher: Li Fanglei, with qualification F03104461 and trading consultation qualification Z0021311 [1] - Contact: 19339940612 [1] Group 2: Sugar (Agricultural, Forestry, and Livestock Sector) Investment Rating - Sugar is rated as "Oscillating and Slightly Weak" [1] Core View - The external raw sugar futures price is mainly consolidating, with short - term oscillations and a long - term bearish outlook. The domestic Zhengzhou sugar market is facing downward pressure due to the increasing new sugar supply and weak overseas market fundamentals [1] Summary by Directory - **Market Review**: On Friday, SR601 closed at 5303 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.47%, and SR605 closed at 5233 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.57% [1] - **Important Information**: ICE raw sugar closed at 14.82 cents/pound on Friday with a daily decline of 0.60%. Sugar prices in various regions in China decreased. As of now, 50 sugar mills in Guangxi have started the 2025/26 season, 17 less than the same period last year, with a daily sugar - cane crushing capacity of 38.55 million tons, 14.2 million tons less than last year [1] - **Market Logic**: The external market is worried about Brazil's future supply and India's export expectations. The domestic market has limited fundamental news, and the new sugar listing speed is accelerating [1] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold or partially close short positions in SR601 contracts, and close profitable long - call options at 5600 [1] Group 3: Red Dates (Agricultural, Forestry, and Livestock Sector) Investment Rating - Red dates are rated as "Oscillating and Slightly Weak" [3] Core View - Although the purchase price of Xinjiang grey dates has increased slightly due to reduced supply, considering the significant overall supply pressure, a short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended [3] Summary by Directory - **Market Review**: On Friday, CJ601 closed at 9175 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.61%, and CJ605 closed at 9320 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 1.75% [3] - **Important Information**: The physical inventory of 36 sample points last week was 13910 tons, a week - on - week increase of 28.23% and a year - on - year increase of 135.16%. On Friday, 5 trucks of red dates arrived at Guangzhou Ruyifang, 1 more than the previous day [3] - **Market Logic**: The purchase price of Xinjiang grey dates has increased due to reduced supply, and the futures price has risen slightly. However, the overall supply pressure is significant [3] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold or partially close short positions in CJ601 contracts, and short - sell CJ605 contracts on rallies [3] Group 4: Rubber (Energy and Chemical Sector) Investment Rating - Natural rubber, 20 - numbered rubber, and synthetic rubber are all rated as "Oscillating" [4] Core View - Natural rubber is under pressure from Thailand's supply during the peak season, with weak cost support and a bearish short - term outlook. Synthetic rubber's BR futures price may be in a low - range operation [4] Summary by Directory - **Market Review**: As of December 5, RU2605 closed at 15065 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.17%, NR2601 closed at 12045 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.63%, and BR2601 closed at 10410 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.43% [4] - **Important Information**: Rubber prices in Yunnan and Hainan decreased. As of November 30, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased by 2.71% month - on - month. The capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire and full - steel tire sample enterprises changed [4] - **Market Logic**: Natural rubber has weak cost support and seasonal inventory accumulation. Synthetic rubber's downstream has a strong wait - and - see attitude due to sufficient raw material supply expectations [4] - **Trading Strategy**: The active RU contract is expected to move in the range of 14900 - 15270 yuan/ton, NR in the range of 11800 - 12200 yuan/ton, and BR in the range of 10200 - 10700 yuan/ton [4]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for different sectors are as follows: - For the agricultural, forestry, and livestock sector, the rating for sugar is "oscillating", for dates is "oscillating with wide amplitude", and for the rubber series in the energy and chemical sector is "oscillating and slightly bullish" [1][4][5]. 2. Core Views - **Sugar**: The international raw sugar market is weak due to concerns about future supply pressure, with potential for short - term technical rebounds but long - term weakness. The domestic sugar market is relatively resistant to the decline, with a flat short - term fundamental situation. There may be a slight rebound in the short term, but the medium - to - long - term view is bearish [1][3]. - **Dates**: The futures price of dates broke through support and fell back. There is a large dispute over the new - season output and quality, and the market is expected to oscillate widely before large - scale harvesting [4]. - **Rubber Series**: Natural rubber has short - term bullish sentiment due to factors such as macro sentiment and inventory reduction, but the upward space is limited due to expected supply increases. Synthetic rubber is mainly driven by natural rubber, and its own fundamentals lack strong positive support, so it is recommended to view it with an oscillating perspective [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Sugar - **Market Review**: On Friday, the SR601 contract closed at 5446 yuan/ton, down 0.20% daily, and the SR605 contract closed at 5398 yuan/ton, down 0.18% daily [1]. - **Important Information**: The ICE raw sugar and London white sugar futures prices declined on Friday. The spot price of Guangxi white sugar increased, and the quotes of sugar - making groups were mostly stable. The number of ships and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped in Brazilian ports decreased. Datagro predicted an increase in Brazil's sugar production in the next season, and the global sugar market will have a surplus in 2025/26. The number of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange's white sugar warehouse receipts decreased [1]. - **Market Logic**: The international raw sugar market is affected by expected supply increases from Brazil, India, and Thailand. The domestic sugar market is in the off - season for consumption, and the pricing center will gradually return to the domestic market [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the SR601 contract, pay attention to the support around 5400 yuan/ton. Upstream enterprises can consider selling for hedging, and there is no arbitrage strategy for now [3]. Dates - **Market Review**: On Friday, the CJ601 contract closed at 10750 yuan/ton, down 3.72% daily, and the CJ605 contract closed at 10655 yuan/ton, down 3.18% daily [4]. - **Important Information**: The physical inventory of 36 sample points increased slightly, the arrival volume in the market decreased slightly, and the prices in some markets were stable or slightly decreased [4]. - **Market Logic**: The futures price of dates fell back, and there is a large dispute over the new - season output and quality. The market is currently gambling on the opening price [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the CJ601 contract, pay attention to the previous low support. If it breaks through, liquidate long positions. It is recommended to operate with a light position, and for the long - term, short the CJ605 contract after the opening - price game ends [4]. Rubber Series - **Market Review**: As of October 24, the RU2601 contract closed at 15335 yuan/ton, up 0.59% daily, the NR2512 contract closed at 12505 yuan/ton, up 0.60% daily, and the BR2512 contract closed at 11120 yuan/ton, with no change [5]. - **Important Information**: The prices of Japanese rubber and new rubber futures increased. The prices of raw materials in Thailand and different regions in China, the capacity utilization rates of tire enterprises, and the prices of various rubber products were reported [5]. - **Market Logic**: For natural rubber, the supply is in the peak season, and short - term factors have affected the supply increase speed. The demand from tire enterprises has increased slightly, and the inventory has decreased. For synthetic rubber, the supply pressure is weak, and it is mainly driven by natural rubber [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold long positions in the RU and NR main contracts and pay attention to the pressure of the upper moving average. Consider taking profits on previous long positions in the BR contract, and those not yet entered the market should wait and see [5].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings for Different Industries - Sugar: Weak and volatile [1] - Red Dates: Weak and volatile [2] - Rubber: Volatile [3] 2. Core Views - Sugar: The external market of sugar is weak due to improved supply prospects, and the domestic market is dragged down by the external market. Although there is no obvious positive driver, it is not recommended to chase short after the price drops to a low level [1]. - Red Dates: The spot price of red dates is weak and stable. The upstream growth is good, but the downstream demand is weak. The inventory pressure is strong, and the futures price may run at a low level [2]. - Rubber: The natural rubber supply is expected to increase, and the downstream demand has not improved significantly. The synthetic rubber supply may decrease, but the downstream sales are slow. Both have limited upward space [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Sugar - **Market Conditions**: SR509 contract closed at 5730 yuan/ton yesterday, down 0.31%, and the night - session closed at 5721 yuan. SR601 contract closed at 5599 yuan/ton, down 0.44%, and the night - session closed at 5584 yuan/ton [1]. - **Important Information**: ICE raw sugar 7 - month contract closed at 16.62 cents/pound, down 0.78%. The main contract of London white sugar closed at 464.4 dollars/ton, down 0.79%. In 2024/25 season, Guangxi's cumulative sugar production increased while the amount of crushed sugarcane decreased. The Indian Sugar Mills Association expects India's sugar production to reach 35 million tons in the 2025/26 season [1]. - **Market Logic**: The external market is weak due to improved supply prospects. The domestic market is dragged down by the external market, and the trading atmosphere is conservative [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Pay attention to the support around 5700 yuan/ton for SR509 contract, and consider light - position long for non - participants. High - throw and low - suck for the 9 - 1 positive spread [1]. Red Dates - **Market Conditions**: CJ509 contract closed at 8795 yuan/ton yesterday, down 0.17%. CJ601 contract closed at 9585 yuan/ton, down 0.36% [2]. - **Important Information**: The inventory of 36 sample physical warehouses last week was 10,753 tons, up 0.80% month - on - month and 74% year - on - year. The number of red date trucks arriving at Guangdong Ruyifang market yesterday increased by 1. The prices of red dates in Hebei remained stable [2]. - **Market Logic**: The futures price fluctuated narrowly, and the spot price was weak and stable. The upstream growth was good, but the downstream demand was weak, and the inventory pressure was strong [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Partially stop profit for previous short positions. Pay attention to the support around 8600 yuan/ton. Continuously pay attention to the reverse spread opportunity of the 9 - 1 spread [2]. Rubber - **Market Conditions**: RU2509 contract closed at 13,545 yuan/ton, down 0.81%, and the night - session closed at 13,760 yuan/ton. NR2507 contract closed at 11,965 yuan/ton, down 0.46%, and the night - session closed at 12,145 yuan/ton. BR2507 contract closed at 10,960 yuan/ton, down 1.22%, and the night - session closed at 11,305 yuan/ton [3]. - **Important Information**: The weekly average price of Shanghai full - latex decreased by 5.15%. The weekly average price of 20 - grade Thai standard rubber in Qingdao decreased by 5.19%. The capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire and full - steel tire sample enterprises decreased. The inventory in Qingdao decreased by 0.80% [3]. - **Market Logic**: The supply of natural rubber is expected to increase, and the downstream demand has not improved significantly. The supply of synthetic rubber may decrease, but the downstream sales are slow [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Pay attention to the support levels of RU at 13,300 yuan/ton in the short - term and 13,000 yuan/ton in the medium - term, NR at 11,500 yuan/ton, and BR at 10,500 - 10,700 yuan/ton. Consider short - term long positions [3].