更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 2 月 2 日星期一 研究员：李方磊 从业资格：F03104461 交易咨询资格：Z0021311 联系方式：19339940612 Morning session notice 早盘提示 ddddddddddddddddddddddddddd | | | | | 【交易策略】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 农林畜 | 红枣 | 震 偏弱 | 荡 | 【行情复盘】 周五 CJ605 合约收盘价 8950 元/吨，日涨幅 0.62%。CJ609 合约收盘价 9165 元/吨， 日涨幅 0.71%。 【重要资讯】 1.上周 36 家样本点物理库存在 13143 吨，较上周减少 925 吨。样本点库存环比下 降。 2.周五河北特级红枣批发价 9.31 元/公斤，日环比+0.01 元/公斤。 3.周五广东如意坊市场到货车辆 6 车，日环比-1 车。 4.周五红枣仓单 3317 张，日环比+4 张。 【市场逻辑】 上周红枣期价重心小幅抬升。当下红枣基本面可供交易信息有限， ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Ratings - Sugar: Oscillation [1] - Red dates: Oscillation [4] - Rubber series: Oscillation [5] 2. Core Views of the Report - Sugar market has supply pressure in both domestic and overseas markets in the medium and long term, with the external market lacking breakthrough momentum and the internal market affected by the overall commodity sector and the external market, and it's not recommended for non - participants to chase the rising market [1] - Red dates' short - term price is oscillating strongly, but there are still insufficient positive factors in the medium and long term, and the market may not have much room for a significant rebound [4] - Natural rubber may enter a consolidation phase recently, and synthetic rubber has mixed long and short factors, and there is pressure on the upper side of the market [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Sugar - **Market Review**: On Friday, the closing price of SR605 contract was 5,288 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.17%, and the night - session closing price was 5,284 yuan/ton; the closing price of SR609 contract was 5,299 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.17%, and the night - session closing price was 5,297 yuan/ton [1] - **Important Information**: On Friday, the spot price of white sugar in Guangxi was 5,321 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton; as of January 7, the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped at Brazilian ports was 158.23 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 16.53 million tons, or 11.66%; in the 2025/26 sugar - making season as of January 7, Thailand's cumulative sugarcane crushing volume decreased by 25.35%, sugar production decreased by 27.03% year - on - year; on Friday, the number of white sugar warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 6,005, unchanged from the previous day [1] - **Market Logic**: The external market is mainly concerned about the output in the Northern Hemisphere, lacking breakthrough momentum, and is expected to oscillate in a range; the domestic market is affected by the overall commodity sector and the external market, and the market sentiment is neutral to strong, but there is still supply pressure [1] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold the previous short positions of SR605, pay attention to the performance of the pressure range of 5,300 - 5,315; wait for short - selling opportunities for non - participants; consider the double - selling strategy for options [1] Red Dates - **Market Review**: On Friday, the closing price of CJ605 contract was 9,150 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.83%; the closing price of CJ609 contract was 9,310 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.76% [4] - **Important Information**: This week, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 15,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.23% and a year - on - year increase of 41.27%; last week, the daily average arrival volume at the Guangdong Ruyifang Market increased by 0.8 carriages, and the price decreased by 0.2 yuan/kg; on the previous day, the wholesale price of Hebei special - grade red dates was 9.52 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day; on the previous day, the number of arrival vehicles at the Guangdong Ruyifang Market decreased by 1; on Friday, the number of red date warehouse receipts increased by 260 to 2,523 [4] - **Market Logic**: The short - term price of red dates is oscillating strongly. As the negative supply factors are gradually digested, the market focuses on the pre - holiday stocking demand. However, there are still insufficient positive factors in the medium and long term [4] - **Trading Strategy**: Short CJ605 contract on rallies [4] Rubber Series - **Market Review**: As of January 9, the closing price of RU2605 contract was 16,030 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.56%; the closing price of NR2602 contract was 12,950 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.88%; the closing price of BR2602 contract was 12,015 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 1.48% [5] - **Important Information**: On Friday, the price of Thai raw material glue was 56 Thai baht/kg, and the price of cup rubber was 52.2 Thai baht/kg; as of January 4, the general trade inventory of natural rubber samples in Qingdao increased by 16,900 tons to 460,300 tons, an increase of 3.80% compared with the previous period; the total inventory of bonded and general trade in Qingdao increased by 23,500 tons to 548,300 tons, an increase of 4.48% compared with the previous period; this week, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire and full - steel tire sample enterprises decreased both week - on - week and year - on - year [5] - **Market Logic**: Natural rubber first rose and then fell last week. Supply is expected to decrease next week, demand is expected to recover but may be restricted by inventory, and inventory has continued to accumulate recently; synthetic rubber's BR main contract continued to strengthen last week. The price of raw material butadiene is expected to remain firm, and there are mixed long and short factors [5] - **Trading Strategy**: Pay attention to the activity range of 15,750 - 16,400 for RU, 12,700 - 13,300 for NR, and 11,900 - 12,400 for BR; consider taking profit and leaving the market for the previous long positions of the rubber series [6]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given reports [1][3][4] Group 2: Core Views - **Sugar**: In the short - term, the price of raw sugar may be difficult to break through the oscillation range due to intertwined long and short factors, and the domestic sugar price is expected to oscillate in a low range because of supply pressure despite the start of the Spring Festival stocking market [1] - **Red Dates**: The red date futures price is under pressure. In the short - term, it may oscillate, and the medium - to - long - term price center may move down due to lack of positive expectations after the stocking season [3] - **Rubber**: The upward movement of natural rubber is blocked, with resistance above in the short - term. The price of synthetic rubber is supported by cost, but high - price transactions are difficult, and some early long positions can be closed for profit [4] Group 3: Summary by Variety Sugar - **Market Review**: SR605 contract closed at 5279 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily decline of 0.04%, and the night session closed at 5279 yuan/ton; SR609 contract closed at 5290 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.06%, and the night session closed at 5292 yuan/ton [1] - **Important Information**: The spot price of sugar in Guangxi increased by 1 yuan/ton to 5315 yuan/ton; the sugar production in India's Maharashtra increased; Brazil's sugar export in December 2025 increased by 7.94 tons compared to 2024; Yunnan's sugar production in the 2025/26 season as of December increased by 6.54 tons year - on - year; in Guangxi, the sugar production in the 2025/26 season decreased year - on - year; the sugar warehouse receipts in Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange remained unchanged [1] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold the previous short positions of SR605 and pay attention to the performance in the 5300 - 5315 pressure range; wait for short - selling opportunities for non - participants; consider the double - selling strategy for options [1] Red Dates - **Market Review**: CJ605 contract closed at 9075 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily decline of 0.82%; CJ609 contract closed at 9240 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.96% [3] - **Important Information**: The physical inventory of 36 red date sample points decreased by 349 tons week - on - week; the price of Hebei's special - grade red dates decreased by 0.04 yuan/kg; the number of arrival vehicles in Guangdong Ruyifang Market increased by 6; the red date warehouse receipts remained unchanged [3] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold the long - term short positions of CJ605 contract; short - sell at high levels for non - participants [3] Rubber - **Market Review**: RU2605 contract closed at 16120 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.37%; NR2603 contract closed at 13065 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.65%; BR2602 contract closed at 12195 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.33% [4] - **Important Information**: The prices of Thai rubber raw materials increased; the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased; the average weekly prices of Shanghai full - latex, 20 - standard Thai rubber in Qingdao and 20 - mixed Thai rubber in Qingdao increased; the capacity utilization rates of China's semi - steel and full - steel tire sample enterprises decreased; the price of butadiene increased, and the ex - factory price of high - cis butadiene rubber increased [4] - **Trading Strategy**: Pay attention to the activity ranges of RU (15750 - 16400), NR (12700 - 13300) and BR (11900 - 12400); consider closing early long positions of rubber series for profit [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings were provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The sugar market is expected to be bearish in the medium to long - term due to increasing domestic sugar production and overseas supply pressure [1] - The jujube market has limited upside potential in the medium to long - term, despite short - term signs of stabilization [4] - The rubber market may face a correction in the short - term, and the upward momentum of synthetic rubber prices may be hindered [5] 3. Summary by Variety Sugar - **Market Performance**: SR605 contract closed at 5258 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily decline of 0.10%, and 5244 yuan/ton at night [1] - **Important Information**: Guangxi spot price rose 10 yuan/ton; India's 2026 January sugar quota decreased by 50,000 tons; Thailand's sugar production decreased by 15.83% year - on - year; Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange's sugar warehouse receipts increased by 144 [1] - **Market Logic**: ICE raw sugar faced upward pressure after previous positive news was digested; the domestic sugar market is dull with bearish medium - to - long - term expectations due to increasing new sugar supply [1] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see during the holiday, reduce previous long positions or buy out - of - the - money put options [1] Jujube - **Market Performance**: CJ605 contract closed at 9020 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily increase of 0.56% [4] - **Important Information**: Sample jujube inventory decreased by 1.30% week - on - week, Hebei's wholesale price decreased, Guangdong's market arrivals increased, and warehouse receipts increased [4] - **Market Logic**: Inventory is in the seasonal destocking period but remains high; there are few medium - to - long - term positive factors, and short - term trading is expected to be range - bound [4] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions in CJ605 contract and wait for short - selling opportunities for non - participants [4] Rubber - **Market Performance**: RU2605 contract closed at 15670 yuan/ton with a 0.03% increase; NR2602 contract closed at 12690 yuan/ton with a 0.20% increase; BR2602 contract closed at 11565 yuan/ton with a 0.30% decrease [5] - **Important Information**: Thai raw material prices were stable, Qingdao rubber inventory increased, tire production capacity utilization rates changed, and rubber prices were mostly stable [5] - **Market Logic**: Natural rubber may face a correction due to eased overseas tensions, port inventory accumulation, and potential decline in tire production; synthetic rubber price upward momentum may be hindered by a stalemate in the spot market and the drag of natural rubber [5] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see for the rubber sector and consider taking profits on previous long positions [5]

Group 1: Industry Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for different sectors are as follows: sugar in the agricultural, forestry, and livestock sector is rated as "volatile"; jujube in the same sector is also rated as "volatile"; rubber series in the energy and chemical sector is rated as a combination of "volatile" for natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, and synthetic rubber [1][4][5]. Group 2: Core Views - For the sugar market, overseas sugar supply pressure remains due to increasing Indian sugar production, and both domestic and overseas sugar markets have a bearish outlook in the medium to long - term. For the jujube market, although there is a seasonal de - stocking, the total inventory is still high, and there are insufficient positive factors for a significant price rebound in the medium to long - term. For the rubber market, natural rubber may face a correction due to eased overseas tensions and continued inventory accumulation, and the upward momentum of synthetic rubber prices may be hindered [1][4][5]. Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs Sugar Market Review - On the previous trading day, the SR605 contract closed at 5,253 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.61%, and the night - session closed at 5,263 yuan/ton [1]. Important Information - The spot price of white sugar in Guangxi decreased by 26 yuan/ton to 5,299 yuan/ton. The price ranges of sugar - making groups and processing plants also had different degrees of decline. As of December 27, 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, Thailand's cumulative sugarcane crushing volume decreased by 16.71% year - on - year, and sugar production decreased by 15.83%. As of December 15, 2025, India's sugar production in the 2025/26 season increased by 27.69% year - on - year. The number of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange's white sugar warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 5,038 [1]. Market Logic - The ICE raw sugar price stabilized after the previous positive news was digested. The domestic sugar market was quiet in terms of news, and the fundamental expectations changed little. The significant rebound of the previous domestic sugar futures was mainly due to the overseas market and the departure of short - selling funds. Currently, domestic sugar mills are in full - swing production, and new sugar will be on the market at a high speed in the future [1]. Trading Strategy - Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude towards the SR605 contract, and partially take profit on the previously held call options [1]. Jujube Market Review - On the previous trading day, the CJ605 contract closed at 8,970 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.11% [4]. Important Information - The physical inventory of 36 sample points last week was 15,898 tons, a decrease of 1.30% week - on - week and an increase of 37.17% year - on - year. The wholesale price of top - grade jujubes in Hebei decreased by 0.03 yuan/kg. The number of arrival vehicles at the Guangdong Ruyifang Market increased by 1. The number of jujube warehouse receipts increased by 79 to 1,171 [4]. Market Logic - The jujube inventory is in the seasonal de - stocking period, but the total inventory is still at a historical high. After the supply negative factors are gradually digested, the market focuses on demand. The futures price has received some support after falling to the previous low. In the medium to long - term, there are insufficient positive factors, and the futures price may not have much room for a significant rebound. In the short - term, it may fluctuate at a low level without new news and capital injection [4]. Trading Strategy - Hold short positions in the CJ605 contract or take profit and exit [4]. Rubber Market Review - As of December 29, the RU2605 contract closed at 15,665 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.73%; the NR2602 contract closed at 12,665 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.71%; the BR2602 contract closed at 11,600 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.30% [5]. Important Information - The price of raw material glue in Thailand and the prices in Hainan remained unchanged. As of December 21, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased by 3.28% week - on - week. The social inventory of natural rubber in China increased by 2.5%. The capacity utilization rates of semi - steel tire and all - steel tire sample enterprises decreased. The prices of various rubber products had different degrees of changes. The price of butadiene had different price ranges in different regions, and the prices of cis - butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber in Shandong market increased [5]. Market Logic - The natural rubber price was weak. The easing of overseas tensions limited the increase in Thai raw material prices, and the port inventory continued to accumulate. In the context of the release of previous positive factors and the weakening of the commodity market atmosphere, the natural rubber may face a correction. For synthetic rubber, the rising butadiene price supports the cis - butadiene rubber price, but the stalemate in the spot market negotiation and the drag of the natural rubber futures may hinder the upward momentum of the BR futures price [5]. Trading Strategy - Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude towards the rubber series, and consider taking profit on the previously held long positions in a timely manner [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided on industry investment ratings in the given content 2. Core Views - For the sugar market, the external ICE raw sugar strengthened, and the domestic Zhengzhou sugar also rose due to external influence. The domestic sugar - making process is progressing smoothly, and the short - term fundamentals are stable. The market is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and future attention should be paid to new information from the international sugar market [1] - Regarding the jujube market, the acquisition of grey jujubes in Xinjiang is nearing completion, and the supply of new jujubes in Hebei is increasing. The jujube futures price is bottoming out, but there are still few positive factors, and the market is expected to remain weak. It is recommended to short on rallies [4] - In the rubber market, natural rubber is affected by the approaching end of the domestic harvest season and the overseas supply peak, along with port inventory accumulation, and is expected to fluctuate in the short - term. Synthetic rubber is supported by raw material costs but has weak downstream acceptance, and the market may also enter a volatile phase [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Sugar 3.1.1 Market Review - SR601 contract closed at 5256 yuan/ton yesterday, up 0.59%, and 5295 yuan/ton at night; SR605 contract closed at 5155 yuan/ton, up 0.57%, and 5192 yuan/ton at night [1] 3.1.2 Important Information - The spot price of Guangxi white sugar was 5218 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton; the quotation range of Guangxi sugar - making groups was 5250 - 5370 yuan/ton, unchanged; the quotation of Yunnan sugar - making groups was 5110 - 5230 yuan/ton, with some prices down 10 yuan/ton; the mainstream quotation range of processing sugar mills was 5690 - 5900 yuan/ton, with some prices up 20 yuan/ton [1] - As of now, 71 sugar mills in Guangxi have started crushing in the 2025/26 season, 3 less than last year, with a daily cane - crushing capacity of about 58.1 million tons, 1.3 million tons less than last year. It is expected that 73 sugar mills will start crushing this season, 1 less than the previous season [1] - As of December 15, 2025, India's sugar production in the 2025/26 season reached 7.825 million tons, an increase of 1.697 million tons or 27.69% compared to the same period last year; 478 sugar mills have started crushing, slightly more than last year [1] - As of December 22, 2025, Thailand's cumulative cane crushing volume was 9.6636 million tons, a decrease of 1.6155 million tons or 14.32% compared to the same period last year; the sugar - containing rate was 11.38%, a decrease of 0.09% compared to last year; the sugar - producing rate was 8.437%, an increase of 0.024% compared to last year; sugar production was 0.8153 million tons, a decrease of 0.1336 million tons or 14.07% compared to last year [1] - Yesterday, there were 4479 sugar warrants in the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, unchanged from the previous day [1] 3.1.3 Market Logic - Externally, the ICE raw sugar strengthened. After the Brazilian sugar price fell below the cost and the sugar - making ratio decreased rapidly, the raw sugar found strong support at 14 cents/pound. The backward Thai sugar - making data and the exit of short positions led to a rebound. In the long - run, there is still pressure on the upside [1] - Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar rose due to external influence. The domestic white sugar spot price stopped falling and stabilized. The short - term fundamentals are stable. Affected by the cost, "policy bottom", and capital outflow, Zhengzhou sugar rebounded. Future attention should be paid to new information from the international sugar market [1] 3.1.4 Trading Strategy - Temporarily wait and see for the SR605 contract, and partially take profits on the previously held call options [1] 3.2 Jujube 3.2.1 Market Review - CJ601 contract closed at 8640 yuan/ton yesterday, down 0.63%; CJ605 contract closed at 8750 yuan/ton, down 0.79% [4] 3.2.2 Important Information - The physical inventory of 36 sample points last week was 16108 tons, an increase of 318 tons or 2.01% compared to the previous week, and an increase of 34.68% compared to the same period last year [4] - The wholesale price of Hebei special - grade jujubes was 9.53 yuan/kg yesterday, down 0.03 yuan/kg from the previous day [4] - The number of arrival vehicles at Guangdong Ruyifang Market was 2 yesterday, 3 less than the previous day [4] - There were 1092 jujube warrants yesterday, unchanged from the previous day [4] 3.2.3 Market Logic - The acquisition of grey jujubes in Xinjiang is nearing completion, and the supply of new jujubes in Hebei is increasing. After the previous negative factors were digested, the downward momentum of the jujube futures price weakened. However, as it has entered the seasonal inventory accumulation period and there is still some unsold inventory upstream, there are few positive factors, and the market is expected to remain weak [4] 3.2.4 Trading Strategy - Hold short positions in the CJ605 contract [4] 3.3 Rubber 3.3.1 Market Review - As of December 23, the RU2605 contract closed at 15290 yuan/ton, up 0.56%; the NR2602 contract closed at 12405 yuan/ton, up 0.40%; the BR2602 contract closed at 11175 yuan/ton, down 0.49% [5] 3.3.2 Important Information - Yesterday, the price of Thai raw material latex was 55.7 Thai baht/kg (- 0.29/- 0.54%), and the price of cup lump was 50.8 Thai baht/kg (0.049/0.1%); the price of Yunnan rubber blocks was 13000 yuan/ton (0/0%); the price of Hainan latex for whole - milk rubber production was 14800 yuan/ton (0/0%), and the price of latex for concentrated latex production was 14800 yuan/ton (0/0%) [5] - As of December 14, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade areas was 4.989 million tons, an increase of 0.102 million tons or 2.08% compared to the previous period. The bonded area inventory was 0.775 million tons, an increase of 4.88%; the general trade inventory was 4.214 million tons, an increase of 1.58%. The inbound rate of Qingdao's natural rubber sample bonded warehouses increased by 2.42 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.38 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 0.57 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.52 percentage points. As of December 14, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 11.52 million tons, an increase of 0.29 million tons or 2.6%. China's total social inventory of dark - colored rubber was 7.48 million tons, an increase of 2.5%. China's total social inventory of light - colored rubber was 4.04 million tons, an increase of 2.8% [5] - This week, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.01%, a decrease of 0.13 percentage points compared to the previous week and 8.67 percentage points compared to the same period last year. The capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.61%, a decrease of 0.94 percentage points compared to the previous week and an increase of 3.72 percentage points compared to the same period last year [5] - Yesterday, the price of whole - milk rubber was 14950 yuan/ton (+ 100/0.67%); the price of 20 - grade Thai standard rubber was 1845 US dollars/ton (+ 10/0.54%), equivalent to 13011 yuan/ton in RMB; the price of 20 - grade Thai mixed rubber was 14520 yuan/ton (+ 50/0.35%) [5] - Yesterday, the price difference between the RU and NR main contracts was 2885 yuan/ton, an increase of 35 yuan/ton compared to the previous day; the price difference between the mixed standard rubber and the RU main contract was - 770 yuan/ton, an increase of 35 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [5] - Yesterday, the delivered price of butadiene in the central Shandong region was about 7800 - 7900 yuan/ton, and the ex - tank self - pick - up price in East China was about 7400 - 7450 yuan/ton [5] - Yesterday, the market prices of cis - polybutadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber rose steadily. The price of Daqing BR9000 in the Shandong market remained stable at 10950 yuan/ton, and the price of Qilu styrene - butadiene 1502 in the Shandong market rose 50 yuan/ton to 11300 yuan/ton [5] 3.3.3 Market Logic - Natural rubber: It strengthened slightly yesterday. The domestic Hainan production area is gradually ending the harvest season, and the enthusiasm of factories to purchase rubber has decreased significantly. However, the overseas supply peak is coming, and there is still resistance to the rise of Thai raw materials. At the same time, the Qingdao port in China continues the seasonal inventory accumulation trend. Under the interweaving of long and short factors, natural rubber may continue to fluctuate in the short - term [5] - Synthetic rubber: The BR contract rose first and then fell yesterday, and the decline widened at night. The firm butadiene price provides strong cost support for synthetic rubber prices, but the downstream's willingness to accept high - priced goods is still weak, and traders lack confidence in raising prices to sell. Although the recent export transaction news of BR raw materials supports the rubber price, there is no obvious positive news in the actual fundamentals. The market may enter a volatile phase in the near future [5] 3.3.4 Trading Strategy - The RU main contract should focus on the 15000 - 15530 activity range; the NR main contract should focus on the 12250 - 12750 activity range; if the BR contract breaks through the 11000 support level today, it will look for the second support at 10700 [5]

Group 1: Overall Information - Report date: December 8, 2025 [1] - Researcher: Li Fanglei, with qualification F03104461 and trading consultation qualification Z0021311 [1] - Contact: 19339940612 [1] Group 2: Sugar (Agricultural, Forestry, and Livestock Sector) Investment Rating - Sugar is rated as "Oscillating and Slightly Weak" [1] Core View - The external raw sugar futures price is mainly consolidating, with short - term oscillations and a long - term bearish outlook. The domestic Zhengzhou sugar market is facing downward pressure due to the increasing new sugar supply and weak overseas market fundamentals [1] Summary by Directory - **Market Review**: On Friday, SR601 closed at 5303 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.47%, and SR605 closed at 5233 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.57% [1] - **Important Information**: ICE raw sugar closed at 14.82 cents/pound on Friday with a daily decline of 0.60%. Sugar prices in various regions in China decreased. As of now, 50 sugar mills in Guangxi have started the 2025/26 season, 17 less than the same period last year, with a daily sugar - cane crushing capacity of 38.55 million tons, 14.2 million tons less than last year [1] - **Market Logic**: The external market is worried about Brazil's future supply and India's export expectations. The domestic market has limited fundamental news, and the new sugar listing speed is accelerating [1] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold or partially close short positions in SR601 contracts, and close profitable long - call options at 5600 [1] Group 3: Red Dates (Agricultural, Forestry, and Livestock Sector) Investment Rating - Red dates are rated as "Oscillating and Slightly Weak" [3] Core View - Although the purchase price of Xinjiang grey dates has increased slightly due to reduced supply, considering the significant overall supply pressure, a short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended [3] Summary by Directory - **Market Review**: On Friday, CJ601 closed at 9175 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.61%, and CJ605 closed at 9320 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 1.75% [3] - **Important Information**: The physical inventory of 36 sample points last week was 13910 tons, a week - on - week increase of 28.23% and a year - on - year increase of 135.16%. On Friday, 5 trucks of red dates arrived at Guangzhou Ruyifang, 1 more than the previous day [3] - **Market Logic**: The purchase price of Xinjiang grey dates has increased due to reduced supply, and the futures price has risen slightly. However, the overall supply pressure is significant [3] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold or partially close short positions in CJ601 contracts, and short - sell CJ605 contracts on rallies [3] Group 4: Rubber (Energy and Chemical Sector) Investment Rating - Natural rubber, 20 - numbered rubber, and synthetic rubber are all rated as "Oscillating" [4] Core View - Natural rubber is under pressure from Thailand's supply during the peak season, with weak cost support and a bearish short - term outlook. Synthetic rubber's BR futures price may be in a low - range operation [4] Summary by Directory - **Market Review**: As of December 5, RU2605 closed at 15065 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.17%, NR2601 closed at 12045 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.63%, and BR2601 closed at 10410 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.43% [4] - **Important Information**: Rubber prices in Yunnan and Hainan decreased. As of November 30, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased by 2.71% month - on - month. The capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire and full - steel tire sample enterprises changed [4] - **Market Logic**: Natural rubber has weak cost support and seasonal inventory accumulation. Synthetic rubber's downstream has a strong wait - and - see attitude due to sufficient raw material supply expectations [4] - **Trading Strategy**: The active RU contract is expected to move in the range of 14900 - 15270 yuan/ton, NR in the range of 11800 - 12200 yuan/ton, and BR in the range of 10200 - 10700 yuan/ton [4]

Group 1 - Domestic commodities mostly declined on October 31, with lithium carbonate dropping over 3%, and other commodities like 20 rubber, methanol, and silicon iron falling over 2% [1][5] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1474.01 points, down 3.29 points or 0.22% from the previous trading day [1] - The main contract for polysilicon rose by 2.73%, driven by positive rumors regarding "storage" initiatives, reaching a two-month high [2] Group 2 - Precious metals, including gold and silver, recorded gains of over 1%, influenced by overseas market conditions and ongoing uncertainties in the U.S. economy [3] - The market for polysilicon is expected to see a supply contraction in November, further supporting price increases despite weak demand [2] - Other commodities like soybean meal, No. 2 yellow soybeans, and corn showed slight increases, contrasting with the overall market trend [4]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for different sectors are as follows: - For the agricultural, forestry, and livestock sector, the rating for sugar is "oscillating", for dates is "oscillating with wide amplitude", and for the rubber series in the energy and chemical sector is "oscillating and slightly bullish" [1][4][5]. 2. Core Views - **Sugar**: The international raw sugar market is weak due to concerns about future supply pressure, with potential for short - term technical rebounds but long - term weakness. The domestic sugar market is relatively resistant to the decline, with a flat short - term fundamental situation. There may be a slight rebound in the short term, but the medium - to - long - term view is bearish [1][3]. - **Dates**: The futures price of dates broke through support and fell back. There is a large dispute over the new - season output and quality, and the market is expected to oscillate widely before large - scale harvesting [4]. - **Rubber Series**: Natural rubber has short - term bullish sentiment due to factors such as macro sentiment and inventory reduction, but the upward space is limited due to expected supply increases. Synthetic rubber is mainly driven by natural rubber, and its own fundamentals lack strong positive support, so it is recommended to view it with an oscillating perspective [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Sugar - **Market Review**: On Friday, the SR601 contract closed at 5446 yuan/ton, down 0.20% daily, and the SR605 contract closed at 5398 yuan/ton, down 0.18% daily [1]. - **Important Information**: The ICE raw sugar and London white sugar futures prices declined on Friday. The spot price of Guangxi white sugar increased, and the quotes of sugar - making groups were mostly stable. The number of ships and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped in Brazilian ports decreased. Datagro predicted an increase in Brazil's sugar production in the next season, and the global sugar market will have a surplus in 2025/26. The number of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange's white sugar warehouse receipts decreased [1]. - **Market Logic**: The international raw sugar market is affected by expected supply increases from Brazil, India, and Thailand. The domestic sugar market is in the off - season for consumption, and the pricing center will gradually return to the domestic market [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the SR601 contract, pay attention to the support around 5400 yuan/ton. Upstream enterprises can consider selling for hedging, and there is no arbitrage strategy for now [3]. Dates - **Market Review**: On Friday, the CJ601 contract closed at 10750 yuan/ton, down 3.72% daily, and the CJ605 contract closed at 10655 yuan/ton, down 3.18% daily [4]. - **Important Information**: The physical inventory of 36 sample points increased slightly, the arrival volume in the market decreased slightly, and the prices in some markets were stable or slightly decreased [4]. - **Market Logic**: The futures price of dates fell back, and there is a large dispute over the new - season output and quality. The market is currently gambling on the opening price [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the CJ601 contract, pay attention to the previous low support. If it breaks through, liquidate long positions. It is recommended to operate with a light position, and for the long - term, short the CJ605 contract after the opening - price game ends [4]. Rubber Series - **Market Review**: As of October 24, the RU2601 contract closed at 15335 yuan/ton, up 0.59% daily, the NR2512 contract closed at 12505 yuan/ton, up 0.60% daily, and the BR2512 contract closed at 11120 yuan/ton, with no change [5]. - **Important Information**: The prices of Japanese rubber and new rubber futures increased. The prices of raw materials in Thailand and different regions in China, the capacity utilization rates of tire enterprises, and the prices of various rubber products were reported [5]. - **Market Logic**: For natural rubber, the supply is in the peak season, and short - term factors have affected the supply increase speed. The demand from tire enterprises has increased slightly, and the inventory has decreased. For synthetic rubber, the supply pressure is weak, and it is mainly driven by natural rubber [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold long positions in the RU and NR main contracts and pay attention to the pressure of the upper moving average. Consider taking profits on previous long positions in the BR contract, and those not yet entered the market should wait and see [5].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★★★ (indicating a clear upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Pulp: ★☆☆ (indicating a bullish bias, with a driving force for price increase but limited operability on the market) [1] - Sugar: ★★★ (indicating a clear upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Apple: ★★★ (indicating a clear upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Timber: ★☆★ (indicating a bullish bias, with a driving force for price increase but limited operability on the market) [1] - 20 - rubber: ★★★ (indicating a clear upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Natural rubber: ☆☆☆ (indicating a bearish trend) [1] - Butadiene rubber: ★☆☆ (indicating a bullish bias, with a driving force for price increase but limited operability on the market) [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various soft commodities including cotton, sugar, apple, rubber, pulp, and timber, and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on supply - demand, inventory, and price trends [2][3][4][6][7][8] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton continued to decline, with the 09 contract significantly reducing positions and the 9 - 1 spread also falling. The inventory depletion rate slowed in the first half of July. As of July 15, the commercial cotton inventory was 2.5424 million tons, a decrease of 287,400 tons from June. In June 2025, China's cotton imports were 30,000 tons, a new low in nearly 20 years. From January to June 2025, the cumulative imports were 460,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 74.3%. The cotton yarn market had average trading, with downstream purchasing for rigid demand. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct intraday operations [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. In the 25/26 crushing season, the estimated sugarcane yield per hectare in central - southern Brazil decreased by 6.5% year - on - year. However, most international consulting firms still expect the sugar production in central - southern Brazil to exceed 40 million tons due to a high sugar - making ratio. In China, Zhengzhou sugar fluctuated. In June 2025, China imported 420,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 392,300 tons, and 115,500 tons of syrup and premixed powder, a year - on - year decrease of 103,500 tons. Although Guangxi had an increased production this year, the inventory decreased year - on - year due to a fast sales pace. The upward space for Zhengzhou sugar is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [3] Apple - The futures price fluctuated. Early - maturing apples had a high opening price, but were affected by high - temperature weather, resulting in poor coloring and some quality problems. As of July 24, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 648,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 44.57%. Last week, the cold - storage apple removal volume was 86,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20.66%. The market's focus has shifted to the new - season production estimate. There are still differences in production estimates. It is recommended to wait and see [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber, and Synthetic Rubber - RU, NR, and BR all declined, and the sentiment in the rubber market continued to weaken. The current prices of domestic natural rubber and synthetic rubber were generally stable. Globally, the natural rubber supply is entering the high - yield period, and there is more heavy rainfall in Southeast Asian producing areas. Last week, the operating rate of domestic butadiene rubber plants continued to rise, and some plants have maintenance plans. The operating rate of upstream butadiene plants increased. The demand from the tire market was average, and the inventory of finished tires increased. The total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao increased. It is recommended to wait and see for RU and NR, and BR has support [6] Pulp - Pulp continued to decline. On July 24, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 2.143 million tons, a decrease of 38,000 tons from the previous period. Currently, the domestic port inventory is relatively high year - on - year, the pulp supply is relatively loose, and the demand is weak. The price may return to low - level fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see [7] Timber - The futures price fluctuated, and the mainstream spot prices remained stable. The shipment of New Zealand logs was at a low level. As of July 25, the average daily log outbound volume from 13 national ports was 64,100 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 2.72%. The total national port log inventory was 3.17 million cubic meters, a decrease of 120,000 cubic meters from the previous period. The inventory pressure is relatively small. The supply - demand situation has improved, and it is expected that the futures price will continue to rise. It is recommended to maintain a bullish mindset [8]