Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 8 日星期一 研究员：李方磊 从业资格：F03104461 交易咨询资格：Z0021311 联系方式：19339940612 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 周五 SR601 合约收盘价 5303 元/吨，日跌幅 0.47%。夜盘收于 5324 元/吨；SR605 合约收盘价 5233 元/吨，日跌幅 0.57%。夜盘收于 5241 元/吨。 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【重要资讯】 1.周五 ICE 原糖原糖收盘价 14.82 美分/磅，日跌幅 0.60%。 2.周五广西白糖现货成交价为 5317 元/吨，下跌 6 元/吨；广西新糖报价 5390~5490 元/吨，下调 20~30 元/吨；云南制糖集团新糖报价 5250~5410 元/吨，部分下调 30 元/吨；加工糖厂主流报价区间为 5700~5900 元/吨，部分下调 20~50 元/吨。 3.据不完全统计， ...

Group 1 - Domestic commodities mostly declined on October 31, with lithium carbonate dropping over 3%, and other commodities like 20 rubber, methanol, and silicon iron falling over 2% [1][5] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1474.01 points, down 3.29 points or 0.22% from the previous trading day [1] - The main contract for polysilicon rose by 2.73%, driven by positive rumors regarding "storage" initiatives, reaching a two-month high [2] Group 2 - Precious metals, including gold and silver, recorded gains of over 1%, influenced by overseas market conditions and ongoing uncertainties in the U.S. economy [3] - The market for polysilicon is expected to see a supply contraction in November, further supporting price increases despite weak demand [2] - Other commodities like soybean meal, No. 2 yellow soybeans, and corn showed slight increases, contrasting with the overall market trend [4]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for different sectors are as follows: - For the agricultural, forestry, and livestock sector, the rating for sugar is "oscillating", for dates is "oscillating with wide amplitude", and for the rubber series in the energy and chemical sector is "oscillating and slightly bullish" [1][4][5]. 2. Core Views - **Sugar**: The international raw sugar market is weak due to concerns about future supply pressure, with potential for short - term technical rebounds but long - term weakness. The domestic sugar market is relatively resistant to the decline, with a flat short - term fundamental situation. There may be a slight rebound in the short term, but the medium - to - long - term view is bearish [1][3]. - **Dates**: The futures price of dates broke through support and fell back. There is a large dispute over the new - season output and quality, and the market is expected to oscillate widely before large - scale harvesting [4]. - **Rubber Series**: Natural rubber has short - term bullish sentiment due to factors such as macro sentiment and inventory reduction, but the upward space is limited due to expected supply increases. Synthetic rubber is mainly driven by natural rubber, and its own fundamentals lack strong positive support, so it is recommended to view it with an oscillating perspective [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Sugar - **Market Review**: On Friday, the SR601 contract closed at 5446 yuan/ton, down 0.20% daily, and the SR605 contract closed at 5398 yuan/ton, down 0.18% daily [1]. - **Important Information**: The ICE raw sugar and London white sugar futures prices declined on Friday. The spot price of Guangxi white sugar increased, and the quotes of sugar - making groups were mostly stable. The number of ships and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped in Brazilian ports decreased. Datagro predicted an increase in Brazil's sugar production in the next season, and the global sugar market will have a surplus in 2025/26. The number of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange's white sugar warehouse receipts decreased [1]. - **Market Logic**: The international raw sugar market is affected by expected supply increases from Brazil, India, and Thailand. The domestic sugar market is in the off - season for consumption, and the pricing center will gradually return to the domestic market [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the SR601 contract, pay attention to the support around 5400 yuan/ton. Upstream enterprises can consider selling for hedging, and there is no arbitrage strategy for now [3]. Dates - **Market Review**: On Friday, the CJ601 contract closed at 10750 yuan/ton, down 3.72% daily, and the CJ605 contract closed at 10655 yuan/ton, down 3.18% daily [4]. - **Important Information**: The physical inventory of 36 sample points increased slightly, the arrival volume in the market decreased slightly, and the prices in some markets were stable or slightly decreased [4]. - **Market Logic**: The futures price of dates fell back, and there is a large dispute over the new - season output and quality. The market is currently gambling on the opening price [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the CJ601 contract, pay attention to the previous low support. If it breaks through, liquidate long positions. It is recommended to operate with a light position, and for the long - term, short the CJ605 contract after the opening - price game ends [4]. Rubber Series - **Market Review**: As of October 24, the RU2601 contract closed at 15335 yuan/ton, up 0.59% daily, the NR2512 contract closed at 12505 yuan/ton, up 0.60% daily, and the BR2512 contract closed at 11120 yuan/ton, with no change [5]. - **Important Information**: The prices of Japanese rubber and new rubber futures increased. The prices of raw materials in Thailand and different regions in China, the capacity utilization rates of tire enterprises, and the prices of various rubber products were reported [5]. - **Market Logic**: For natural rubber, the supply is in the peak season, and short - term factors have affected the supply increase speed. The demand from tire enterprises has increased slightly, and the inventory has decreased. For synthetic rubber, the supply pressure is weak, and it is mainly driven by natural rubber [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold long positions in the RU and NR main contracts and pay attention to the pressure of the upper moving average. Consider taking profits on previous long positions in the BR contract, and those not yet entered the market should wait and see [5].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★★★ (indicating a clear upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Pulp: ★☆☆ (indicating a bullish bias, with a driving force for price increase but limited operability on the market) [1] - Sugar: ★★★ (indicating a clear upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Apple: ★★★ (indicating a clear upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Timber: ★☆★ (indicating a bullish bias, with a driving force for price increase but limited operability on the market) [1] - 20 - rubber: ★★★ (indicating a clear upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Natural rubber: ☆☆☆ (indicating a bearish trend) [1] - Butadiene rubber: ★☆☆ (indicating a bullish bias, with a driving force for price increase but limited operability on the market) [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various soft commodities including cotton, sugar, apple, rubber, pulp, and timber, and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on supply - demand, inventory, and price trends [2][3][4][6][7][8] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton continued to decline, with the 09 contract significantly reducing positions and the 9 - 1 spread also falling. The inventory depletion rate slowed in the first half of July. As of July 15, the commercial cotton inventory was 2.5424 million tons, a decrease of 287,400 tons from June. In June 2025, China's cotton imports were 30,000 tons, a new low in nearly 20 years. From January to June 2025, the cumulative imports were 460,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 74.3%. The cotton yarn market had average trading, with downstream purchasing for rigid demand. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct intraday operations [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. In the 25/26 crushing season, the estimated sugarcane yield per hectare in central - southern Brazil decreased by 6.5% year - on - year. However, most international consulting firms still expect the sugar production in central - southern Brazil to exceed 40 million tons due to a high sugar - making ratio. In China, Zhengzhou sugar fluctuated. In June 2025, China imported 420,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 392,300 tons, and 115,500 tons of syrup and premixed powder, a year - on - year decrease of 103,500 tons. Although Guangxi had an increased production this year, the inventory decreased year - on - year due to a fast sales pace. The upward space for Zhengzhou sugar is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [3] Apple - The futures price fluctuated. Early - maturing apples had a high opening price, but were affected by high - temperature weather, resulting in poor coloring and some quality problems. As of July 24, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 648,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 44.57%. Last week, the cold - storage apple removal volume was 86,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20.66%. The market's focus has shifted to the new - season production estimate. There are still differences in production estimates. It is recommended to wait and see [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber, and Synthetic Rubber - RU, NR, and BR all declined, and the sentiment in the rubber market continued to weaken. The current prices of domestic natural rubber and synthetic rubber were generally stable. Globally, the natural rubber supply is entering the high - yield period, and there is more heavy rainfall in Southeast Asian producing areas. Last week, the operating rate of domestic butadiene rubber plants continued to rise, and some plants have maintenance plans. The operating rate of upstream butadiene plants increased. The demand from the tire market was average, and the inventory of finished tires increased. The total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao increased. It is recommended to wait and see for RU and NR, and BR has support [6] Pulp - Pulp continued to decline. On July 24, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 2.143 million tons, a decrease of 38,000 tons from the previous period. Currently, the domestic port inventory is relatively high year - on - year, the pulp supply is relatively loose, and the demand is weak. The price may return to low - level fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see [7] Timber - The futures price fluctuated, and the mainstream spot prices remained stable. The shipment of New Zealand logs was at a low level. As of July 25, the average daily log outbound volume from 13 national ports was 64,100 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 2.72%. The total national port log inventory was 3.17 million cubic meters, a decrease of 120,000 cubic meters from the previous period. The inventory pressure is relatively small. The supply - demand situation has improved, and it is expected that the futures price will continue to rise. It is recommended to maintain a bullish mindset [8]

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings for Different Industries - Sugar: Weak and volatile [1] - Red Dates: Weak and volatile [2] - Rubber: Volatile [3] 2. Core Views - Sugar: The external market of sugar is weak due to improved supply prospects, and the domestic market is dragged down by the external market. Although there is no obvious positive driver, it is not recommended to chase short after the price drops to a low level [1]. - Red Dates: The spot price of red dates is weak and stable. The upstream growth is good, but the downstream demand is weak. The inventory pressure is strong, and the futures price may run at a low level [2]. - Rubber: The natural rubber supply is expected to increase, and the downstream demand has not improved significantly. The synthetic rubber supply may decrease, but the downstream sales are slow. Both have limited upward space [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Sugar - **Market Conditions**: SR509 contract closed at 5730 yuan/ton yesterday, down 0.31%, and the night - session closed at 5721 yuan. SR601 contract closed at 5599 yuan/ton, down 0.44%, and the night - session closed at 5584 yuan/ton [1]. - **Important Information**: ICE raw sugar 7 - month contract closed at 16.62 cents/pound, down 0.78%. The main contract of London white sugar closed at 464.4 dollars/ton, down 0.79%. In 2024/25 season, Guangxi's cumulative sugar production increased while the amount of crushed sugarcane decreased. The Indian Sugar Mills Association expects India's sugar production to reach 35 million tons in the 2025/26 season [1]. - **Market Logic**: The external market is weak due to improved supply prospects. The domestic market is dragged down by the external market, and the trading atmosphere is conservative [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Pay attention to the support around 5700 yuan/ton for SR509 contract, and consider light - position long for non - participants. High - throw and low - suck for the 9 - 1 positive spread [1]. Red Dates - **Market Conditions**: CJ509 contract closed at 8795 yuan/ton yesterday, down 0.17%. CJ601 contract closed at 9585 yuan/ton, down 0.36% [2]. - **Important Information**: The inventory of 36 sample physical warehouses last week was 10,753 tons, up 0.80% month - on - month and 74% year - on - year. The number of red date trucks arriving at Guangdong Ruyifang market yesterday increased by 1. The prices of red dates in Hebei remained stable [2]. - **Market Logic**: The futures price fluctuated narrowly, and the spot price was weak and stable. The upstream growth was good, but the downstream demand was weak, and the inventory pressure was strong [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Partially stop profit for previous short positions. Pay attention to the support around 8600 yuan/ton. Continuously pay attention to the reverse spread opportunity of the 9 - 1 spread [2]. Rubber - **Market Conditions**: RU2509 contract closed at 13,545 yuan/ton, down 0.81%, and the night - session closed at 13,760 yuan/ton. NR2507 contract closed at 11,965 yuan/ton, down 0.46%, and the night - session closed at 12,145 yuan/ton. BR2507 contract closed at 10,960 yuan/ton, down 1.22%, and the night - session closed at 11,305 yuan/ton [3]. - **Important Information**: The weekly average price of Shanghai full - latex decreased by 5.15%. The weekly average price of 20 - grade Thai standard rubber in Qingdao decreased by 5.19%. The capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire and full - steel tire sample enterprises decreased. The inventory in Qingdao decreased by 0.80% [3]. - **Market Logic**: The supply of natural rubber is expected to increase, and the downstream demand has not improved significantly. The supply of synthetic rubber may decrease, but the downstream sales are slow [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Pay attention to the support levels of RU at 13,300 yuan/ton in the short - term and 13,000 yuan/ton in the medium - term, NR at 11,500 yuan/ton, and BR at 10,500 - 10,700 yuan/ton. Consider short - term long positions [3].