仅本周，比特币就上涨了12%，今年迄今累计上涨超过30%。市场参与者将美国政府关门事件称为引发"贬值交易"的催化剂，投资 者预期这将推动资金流向"避险"资产。 美国政府关门引发的"贬值"交易推动全球风险资产反弹，比特币价格再创历史新高。随着政治和经济不确定性加剧，投资者正将资 金转向比特币、黄金等资产以对冲美元贬值风险。 全球最大加密货币周日（10月5日）在亚洲交易时段最高触及125,689美元，超越此前8月14日创下的124,514美元纪录。比特币此次 上涨得到美股上涨和比特币相关交易所交易基金资金流入的支撑。 标准渣打银行全球数字资产研究主管Geoff Kendrick表示："这次关门很重要。"他指出，比特币现在与传统风险资产的关联度更 高，预计在此期间将继续上涨。 分析指出，比特币上涨还得益于机构需求与技术面，以及季节性因素的共同推动。值得注意的是，市场将密切关注国会就联邦资金 问题的谈判进展，以及美联储货币政策走向对"贬值交易"逻辑的影响。这些因素将决定比特币能否维持当前涨势并实现进一步突 破。 "贬值交易"推动多资产上涨 风险资产普涨反映"贬值"担忧，多种资产同创新高。 除比特币外，美股周五也触及纪 ...

美国政府关门引发的"贬值"交易推动全球风险资产反弹，比特币价格再创历史新高。随着政治和经济不确定性加剧，投资者正将资 金转向比特币、黄金等资产以对冲美元贬值风险。 全球最大加密货币周日（10月5日）在亚洲交易时段最高触及125,689美元，超越此前8月14日创下的124,514美元纪录。比特币此次 上涨得到美股上涨和比特币相关交易所交易基金资金流入的支撑。 作者：董静；来源：华尔街见闻 美国政府关门引发"贬值"交易热潮，投资者为对冲美元贬值风险，将资金转向比特币、黄金等资产，比特币周日最高触及125,689 美元，再创历史新高。除政治不确定性外，机构需求增长、比特币ETF资金流入、企业囤币策略及10月季节性因素共同推动涨势。 仅本周，比特币就上涨了12%，今年迄今累计上涨超过30%。市场参与者将美国政府关门事件称为引发"贬值交易"的催化剂，投资 者预期这将推动资金流向"避险"资产。 标准渣打银行全球数字资产研究主管Geoff Kendrick表示："这次关门很重要。"他指出，比特币现在与传统风险资产的关联度更 高，预计在此期间将继续上涨。 美国政府自周三开始关门，这一事件成为推动比特币价格突破的关键因素。投资 ...

Core Insights - The U.S. government shutdown has triggered a "devaluation trade," leading to a rebound in global risk assets, with Bitcoin reaching a new all-time high [1][3] - Investors are shifting funds towards Bitcoin and gold as a hedge against the risk of dollar devaluation [1][3] Group 1: Bitcoin Performance - Bitcoin surged to a peak of $125,689 on October 5, surpassing its previous record of $124,514 set on August 14 [1] - The cryptocurrency has increased by 12% this week and over 30% year-to-date, driven by the government shutdown and expectations of funds flowing into safe-haven assets [3] - Institutional demand, technical factors, and seasonal trends are contributing to Bitcoin's price increase [3][6] Group 2: Market Reactions - The shutdown has led to a broad rise in risk assets, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite indices reaching record highs [4] - Gold prices have also increased by over 2% this week, marking the seventh consecutive week of gains [4] Group 3: Institutional Influence - The demand for Bitcoin is bolstered by institutional interest, particularly from companies like MicroStrategy that have adopted a strategy of accumulating cryptocurrencies [6] - The influx of funds into Bitcoin-related ETFs has made it easier for traditional investors to participate in Bitcoin investments, expanding the market participant base [6] Group 4: Historical Context - The current performance of Bitcoin during the government shutdown contrasts sharply with its performance during the previous shutdown in late 2018, indicating a stronger correlation with U.S. government risk this time [6] - October has historically been a strong month for Bitcoin, with nine out of the last ten Octobers showing price increases, reinforcing bullish sentiment among investors [7]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market experienced a dramatic reversal on Monday, with retail investors engaging in record "buying the dip" actions, which quickly turned around the initial decline in the S&P 500 index caused by Moody's downgrade of the U.S. credit rating, leading to gains across all three major indices [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - The S&P 500 index initially fell nearly 1.1% but rebounded to close up 5.22 points, or 0.09%, at 5963.60 points [3]. - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 137.33 points, or 0.32%, closing at 42792.07 points, while the Nasdaq increased by 4.36 points, or 0.02%, to finish at 19215.46 points [3]. Group 2: Retail Investor Activity - Retail investors demonstrated significant buying power, with net purchases of U.S. stocks reaching a record $4.1 billion by noon, marking the first time this figure surpassed $4 billion before midday [3]. - Retail trading volume accounted for 36% of total market trading volume, setting a new historical high, surpassing the previous peak in late April [3]. Group 3: Investor Sentiment and Strategy - Retail investors are showing a strong belief in the market, avoiding past hesitations that led to missed opportunities during rebounds [4]. - The recent buying trend among retail investors follows a pattern seen in April when they bought stocks at record speeds during a market downturn [4]. - Wall Street strategists, including Morgan Stanley's Michael Wilson, view the market pullback triggered by Moody's downgrade as a buying opportunity, especially after the U.S.-China tariff truce reduced recession risks [4]. - HSBC's multi-asset strategy head, Max Kettner, also sees declines in risk assets as opportunities for increased investment [4]. Group 4: Specific Stock Preferences - On Monday, retail investors allocated $2.5 billion to individual stocks and $1.5 billion to exchange-traded funds (ETFs) [5]. - Tesla and Palantir were particularly favored, attracting net inflows of $675 million and $439 million, respectively [5]. - Retail investors actively increased their holdings in Bitcoin-related ETFs while continuing to reduce their positions in Nvidia [5].

Core Viewpoint - The impact of Moody's downgrade on the U.S. credit rating appears to be short-lived, as retail investors engaged in record "buying the dip" actions, leading to a recovery in the stock market on Monday [1][3]. Group 1: Retail Investor Activity - On Monday, retail investors recorded a net purchase of U.S. stocks amounting to a historic $4.1 billion, marking the first time this figure surpassed $4 billion before noon [2]. - Retail trading volume accounted for 36% of the overall market trading volume, setting a new historical high, exceeding the previous peak in late April [6]. - In April, retail investors significantly contributed to the rebound of the U.S. stock market, with a net purchase of $40 billion, surpassing March's figures and setting a record for the largest monthly inflow [9]. Group 2: Market Performance - The S&P 500 index initially dropped nearly 1.1% at the open but rebounded to close up 5.22 points, or 0.09%, at 5963.60 points [4]. - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 137.33 points, or 0.32%, closing at 42792.07 points, while the Nasdaq increased by 4.36 points, or 0.02%, to 19215.46 points [4]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Wall Street strategists advised clients to continue buying on dips, viewing the Moody's downgrade as an opportunity rather than a cause for concern [11]. - Morgan Stanley's strategist Michael Wilson indicated that the market pullback triggered by the downgrade presents a buying opportunity, especially after the U.S.-China tariff truce reduced recession risks [12]. - HSBC's multi-asset strategy head Max Kettner expressed that any decline in risk assets should be seen as an opportunity to increase investments [13].