化工产品：整体承压，结构分化 产能过剩整体承压下不同子行业分化明显。价格表现好的子行业主要集中在产能增长压力较小的子行业 如制冷剂，刚需和供给集中的子行业如磷肥钾肥、食品饲料添加剂、部分小品种农药，内需为主或进口 替代的子行业如改性塑料、合成树脂、复合肥等。Q3主要化工品价格价差环比变动有所分化。 根据百川盈孚及Wind数据，截至2025年9月26日，主要化工产品2025Q3平均价格环比上涨、持平和下跌 产品数量占比分别为29%、3%和68%，其中，环比涨幅位居前五的品种分别是TDI、环氧氯丙烷、促进 剂D、R32和草甘膦，涨幅分别为25.7%/21.4%/15.6%/15.2%/13.2%。此外，截至2025年9月26日，主要化 工产品2025Q3平均价差环比上涨、持平和下跌产品数量占比分别为42%、0%和58%，其中，环比涨幅 位居前五的品种分别是电石法PVC、TDI、R32、草甘膦和R134a，分别涨幅为 62.1%/38.7%/24.2%/17.9%/14.0%。 行业观点：看好供需改善的子行业和进口替代的新材料 智通财经APP获悉，浙商证券发布研报称，根据国家统计局数据，2025年前8月化学原料与制 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业专题 | 基础化工 量增价跌，Q3 盈利分化 ——基础化工行业 2025Q3 业绩前瞻 投资要点 ❑ 行业整体：量增价跌，Q3 整体盈利下行 根据国家统计局数据，2025 年前 8 月化学原料与制品行业实现营收 5.95 万亿元， 累计同比增长 0.9%，年初至今增速持续回落；实现利润总额 2461 亿元，累计同 比下滑 5.5%；利润率 4.14%，较 24 年同期下降 0.35 个百分点，降至历史低位； 存货 1.02 万亿，同比增长 2.2%，其中产成品存货 0.47 万亿，同比增长 5.1%。地 产下行内需弱复苏，关税冲击外需，化工品量增价跌。截至 25 年 9 月 30 日，中 国化工产品价格指数（CCPI）3958 点，较年初跌 8.1%，同比跌 10%。2025 年 8 月化学原料及制品、化纤、橡胶及塑料 PPI 当月同比分别-5.7%、-9.3%、-2.6%。 行业景气持续下行，投资增速放缓。2025 年 8 月化学原料及制品、化纤固定资产 投资增速分别为-5.2%和 9.3%。 ❑ 化工产品：整体承压，结构分化 产能过剩整体承压下不同子行业分化明显。价格表现好的子行业主 ...

Market Overview - A-shares experienced slight fluctuations this week, with technology growth stocks performing well, as the ChiNext Index and STAR Market Index reached new highs, while the Shanghai Composite Index and Shanghai 50 Index showed sideways movement [1] - Weekly trading volume decreased to 11.57 trillion yuan, marking a six-week low due to holiday effects [1] Electronic Industry - The electronic sector attracted significant capital, with a net financing purchase exceeding 45.8 billion yuan for the week, marking the 14th consecutive week of net purchases over 10 billion yuan [2] - The electronic industry received a net inflow of over 412 billion yuan from major funds over the week, leading all sectors in net inflow [2] - Other sectors such as power equipment, telecommunications, and computers also saw substantial net purchases, while non-ferrous metals and non-bank financial sectors experienced net selling [2] Wind Power and Chemical Industries - The wind power sector showed strong performance, with the wind power equipment index rising for four consecutive days, reaching a two-and-a-half-year high [3] - The average bidding price for onshore wind turbines increased by 12.8% from 2024 to 2025, indicating a positive trend in the wind power market [3] - The chemical sector also saw collective strength, with new listings and significant price increases in various chemical products, including refrigerants and titanium dioxide [4][5] Future Outlook - Analysts expect certain chemical sub-industries to experience a phase of improvement due to ongoing policy effects, leading to healthier and more sustainable industry development [5] - The technology sector is anticipated to remain a core focus for the market, with structural opportunities expected to arise in the near future [7]

红宝丽（002165.SZ）9月25日在投资者互动平台表示，环氧丙烷与环氧氯丙烷是不同的两个化工原料， 公司环氧丙烷项目在建设中。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，有投资者在投资者互动平台提问：环氧氯丙烷价格呈现持续上涨，对公司的利润是否产 生积极影响？ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the basic chemical industry [1][8]. Core Viewpoints - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut is expected to boost commodity prices, which may enhance the market sentiment for bulk chemicals [3]. - The basic chemical index underperformed the CSI 300 index by 0.89 percentage points, with a decline of 1.33% over the past week [1][13]. - Key sub-industries showing positive performance include food and feed additives (2.99%), civil explosives (2.96%), and rubber additives (2.41%) [1][14]. Market Trends - The basic chemical index decreased by 1.33% from September 13 to September 19, while the CSI 300 index fell by 0.44% [1][13]. - The top-performing sub-industries during this period were food and feed additives, civil explosives, rubber additives, spandex, and adhesives [1][14]. Chemical Price Trends - The top five products with the highest weekly price increases were liquid chlorine (40.00%), acrylic acid (4.17%), aniline (3.30%), acetic acid (3.17%), and washing oil (2.86%) [2][21]. - Conversely, the products with the largest price declines included hydrochloric acid (Shandong) (-100.00%), domestic vitamin E (-8.77%), and epoxy chloropropane (-5.32%) [2][21]. Industry Dynamics - The Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate target range from 4.25%-4.50% to 4.0%-4.25%, marking the first rate cut in 2025 [3]. - The report indicates that the current economic activity in the U.S. is slowing down, with employment growth also decelerating [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on several key sectors: refrigerants, chemical fibers, tire manufacturing, agricultural chemicals, and high-quality growth stocks [8][43]. - Specific companies to watch include Jinshi Resources, Juhua Co., and Wanhu Chemical among others [8][43].

Group 1: Chemical Sector Performance - The chemical raw materials index decreased by 1.21%, while the chemical machinery index increased by 2.90% [1] - The pharmaceutical index fell by 1.36%, and the pesticide and fertilizer index dropped by 2.50% [1] - The oil processing index declined by 2.22%, the oil extraction index decreased by 3.17%, and the oil trading index fell by 1.46% [1] Group 2: Oil Prices - As of September 19, the WTI crude oil futures settled at $62.68 per barrel, down 0.02% from September 12 [1] - The Brent crude oil futures settled at $66.68 per barrel, down 0.46% from the previous Friday [1] Group 3: Petrochemical Product Price Changes - The top five petrochemical products with price increases were liquid chlorine (up 22.93%), isooctyl acrylate (up 7.47%), acrylic acid (up 5.04%), calcium carbide (up 4.94%), and MMA (up 4.51%) [1] - The top five petrochemical products with price decreases were vitamin E (down 10.00%), epichlorohydrin (down 6.44%), sulfuric acid (down 4.94%), p-nitrochlorobenzene (down 4.62%), and dichloromethane (down 3.64%) [1] Group 4: Capital Market Performance of Chemical Companies - The top five performing listed chemical companies were Kaimete Gas (up 28.62%), Hongda Explosive (up 22.93%), Sanwei Co. (up 22.53%), Zhongshi Technology (up 21.57%), and Jinghua New Materials (up 18.94%) [2] - The bottom five performing listed chemical companies were Runyang Technology (down 11.48%), Lafang Cosmetics (down 10.43%), Wankai New Materials (down 10.42%), Jiaao Environmental Protection (down 10.25%), and Shilong Industrial (down 9.41%) [2]

Market Performance - The basic chemical index increased by 2.36% from September 6 to September 12, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which rose by 1.38%, by 0.97 percentage points, ranking 12th among all sectors [1][2] - The top-performing sub-industries included potassium fertilizer (16.13%), spandex (13.32%), nitrogen fertilizer (5.07%), phosphate and phosphate chemicals (4.36%), and fluorine chemicals (4.18%) [1][2] Price Trends - The top five products with the highest weekly price increases were hydrochloric acid (Jiangsu) at 2900.00%, liquid chlorine at 50.00%, caustic soda (ion membrane) at 6.48%, epoxy chloropropane at 6.48%, and anthracene oil at 4.29% [3] - The top five products with the largest weekly price declines included hydrochloric acid (Shandong) at -2100.00%, sulfuric acid at -6.78%, domestic vitamin E at -6.56%, concentrated nitric acid at -6.25%, and ammonium chloride at -4.76% [3] Industry Dynamics - The Ministry of Commerce announced an anti-dumping investigation into imported simulation chips from the U.S. on September 13, citing U.S. government actions as harmful to China's chip products and AI industry [4] - The Ministry also initiated an anti-discrimination investigation regarding U.S. measures in the integrated circuit sector, emphasizing the negative impact of U.S. protectionism on China's high-tech industries and the global semiconductor supply chain [4] - The trend towards self-sufficiency in semiconductor materials is highlighted, with a focus on photoresists, wet electronic chemicals, and electronic specialty gases [4] Geopolitical Impact - The escalation of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East has led to a slight increase in international crude oil prices, with Brent and WTI crude oil prices reaching $66.99 and $62.69 per barrel, respectively, as of September 12, marking increases of 2.27% and 1.33% [6] - Supply disruptions in butyl acrylate were reported due to a production facility failure, leading to a price increase of 4.90% for butyl acrylate, with the market price at 7500 yuan/ton as of September 12 [6] Investment Recommendations - Current investment focus includes the refrigerant sector, with potential price increases expected, and companies such as Jinshi Resources, Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., and Yonghe Co. are recommended [7] - The chemical fiber sector is also highlighted, with recommendations for Huafeng Chemical, Xin Fengming, and Taihe New Materials [7] - Other recommended companies include Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, Luxi Chemical, and Baofeng Energy [7] - The tire sector includes recommendations for Sailun Tire, Senqilin, and Linglong Tire [7] - The agricultural chemical sector suggests companies like Yara International, Salt Lake Co., Xingfa Group, Yuntianhua, and Yangnong Chemical [7] - High-quality growth stocks to watch include Blue Sky Technology, Shengquan Group, and Shandong Heda [7] Industry Rating - The basic chemical industry maintains an "overweight" rating [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report highlights the potential for phosphate fertilizer exports to alleviate domestic overcapacity and maintain profitability for companies in the sector, with specific guidance on export quotas and timelines for 2025 [1][2] - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong performance in the first half of the year, particularly Saint Quan Group and Hailide, due to their resilience to macroeconomic fluctuations and benefits from AI-related capital investments [2] - The phosphate fertilizer export window is expected to open, with the first batch scheduled for May to September 2025, and a reduction in total export quotas compared to the previous year [1][2] Group 2 - The chemical industry is facing increased scrutiny due to frequent safety incidents, such as the explosion at Youdao Chemical, which may lead to stricter regulations and a potential recovery in the pesticide sector as non-compliant production capacities are phased out [3] - The report indicates that the pesticide industry may see an overall improvement in market conditions as a result of heightened safety inspections and the elimination of unsafe production processes [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the chemical industry, including Xin Yang Feng, Sen Qi Lin, Rui Feng New Materials, Sinopec, Ju Hua, Yang Nong Chemical, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, Tong Kun, Dao Tong Technology, and others [10]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights significant price increases in products such as Epoxy Chloropropane (up 10.00%), Synthetic Ammonia (up 4.35%), and others, while products like Urea and Sulfur experienced notable declines [4][5][21]. - The ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and fluctuating international oil prices are influencing market dynamics, with a recommendation to focus on import substitution, domestic demand, and high-dividend stocks [6][22]. - The chemical industry is currently in a weak performance phase, with mixed results across sub-sectors due to past capacity expansions and weak demand, although some sectors like lubricants are performing better than expected [23]. Summary by Sections Price Movements - Significant price increases were observed in Epoxy Chloropropane (10.00%), Sulfur (4.59%), and Synthetic Ammonia (4.35), while Urea saw a decrease of 8.47% [4][5][21]. - The report notes that the overall chemical industry remains weak, with varying performance across different sub-sectors [22][23]. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on sectors likely to enter a growth cycle, such as Glyphosate, and emphasizes the importance of selecting stocks with strong competitive positions and growth potential [23]. - It highlights the resilience of domestic chemical fertilizer and certain pesticide sub-products, recommending companies like Hualu Hengsheng, Xin Yang Feng, and others for their stable demand [23]. Geopolitical and Economic Context - The report discusses the impact of geopolitical tensions on oil prices, with Brent crude oil priced at $66.99 per barrel and WTI at $62.69, reflecting a slight increase from the previous week [6][24]. - It anticipates that the international oil price will stabilize between $65 and $70, suggesting a cautious outlook for the market [6][24].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies such as Shengquan Group and Hailide. Both companies are expected to benefit from their respective market positions and macroeconomic factors [3][4]. Core Insights - The chemical industry is experiencing a positive trend, with significant price increases in products like liquid chlorine, epoxy chloropropane, sulfur, and butyl acrylate. The industry index rose by 2.36% this week, outperforming the CSI 300 index [10][19]. - Shengquan Group is highlighted as a major domestic supplier of electronic resins for AI servers, with expected performance improvements due to increasing server shipments. Hailide is noted for its leadership in the polyester industrial yarn sector, benefiting from U.S. tariff conflicts [1][3]. - The phosphate fertilizer export window is open, with high demand expected to continue. The report suggests focusing on large phosphate chemical companies like Yuntianhua, which have phosphate mineral resources [1]. Summary by Sections Chemical Sector Overview - The basic chemical industry index closed at 4103.52 points, up 2.36% from the previous week, indicating a strong performance relative to the broader market [10]. - Among 21 sub-industries, sectors like membrane materials, phosphate fertilizers, and fluorochemicals showed significant gains, with weekly increases of 5.41%, 5.02%, and 4.58% respectively [12]. Key Companies and Predictions - Shengquan Group is projected to have an EPS of 1.53 in 2025, with a PE ratio of 21, and is rated as "Recommended" [3]. - Hailide is expected to achieve an EPS of 0.48 in 2025, with a PE ratio of 13, also rated as "Recommended" [3]. Product Price Trends - Liquid chlorine prices increased by 22% this week, while epoxy chloropropane rose by 7%. Sulfur and butyl acrylate also saw price increases of 6% [20]. - The report tracks 380 chemical products, with 71 showing price increases and 94 decreasing in price over the week [19]. Sub-industry Analysis - The polyester filament market is facing challenges with stable prices but weak demand, leading to cautious purchasing behavior among textile manufacturers [22][23]. - The tire industry is experiencing a slight increase in operating rates, with full steel tire rates at 66.31% and semi-steel tire rates at 72.61% [27]. Fertilizer and Chemical Safety - The report notes that the phosphate fertilizer export quota is expected to decrease compared to last year, which may alleviate domestic overcapacity issues [1]. - Increased scrutiny on chemical safety following recent accidents is anticipated to boost the agricultural pesticide sector's overall outlook [2].