Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Core View of the Report - The asphalt market is expected to experience weak and volatile price movements. The supply side will see a slight increase in the operating rate, while the demand side will remain weak. The impact of international events on crude oil prices and the cautious market attitude towards winter storage contracts also contribute to the market's uncertainty [1]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Supply: This week, the asphalt operating rate increased by 3.0 percentage points to 27.8% week-on-week, still at the lowest level in recent years. In December, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 2.158 million tons, a decrease of 70,000 tons (3.1%) month-on-month and 344,000 tons (13.8%) year-on-year. Next week, the operating rate will increase slightly as some refineries switch production and others resume production [1]. - Demand: This week, the operating rates of most downstream asphalt industries declined. Road asphalt construction was restricted by funds and weather, with the operating rate dropping by 5 percentage points to 29%. As the temperature drops in the north, road construction will gradually end, and the overall demand will remain weak [1]. - Inventory: The inventory-to-sales ratio of asphalt refineries remained flat week-on-week and is near the lowest level in recent years [1]. - International Events: The sanctions imposed by the US and the West have not affected Russia's oil production. Although there are signs of a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the possibility of a peace agreement in the near term is low, and crude oil prices are fluctuating at a low level. A fire in Venezuela's Jose industrial area led to the shutdown of a 200,000-barrel/day distillation unit, and the discount of diluted asphalt widened under the US military threat [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Today, the asphalt futures 2601 contract fell 0.73% to 2,996 yuan/ton, below the 5-day moving average. The lowest price was 2,953 yuan/ton, and the highest was 3,019 yuan/ton. The trading volume decreased by 20,497 to 133,952 lots [2]. - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong remained at 3,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 01 contract rose to 4 yuan/ton, at a neutral level [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: Refineries such as Shanghai Petrochemical and Shandong Shengxing resumed asphalt production, and the operating rate increased by 3.0 percentage points to 27.8% week-on-week, still at the lowest level in recent years [4]. - Investment: From January to September, the national highway construction investment decreased by 6.0% year-on-year. From January to October, the fixed asset investment in road transportation decreased by 4.3% year-on-year, and the infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) decreased by 0.1% year-on-year [4]. - Social Financing: From January to October, the year-on-year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.5%, a 0.2 percentage point decline from January to September. The new social financing in October was lower than expected [4]. - Inventory: As of November 28, the inventory-to-sales ratio of asphalt refineries remained flat at 14.5% week-on-week, near the lowest level in recent years [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report In the context of weak supply and demand, the asphalt futures may maintain a weak and volatile trend in the future. The supply side is passively shrinking due to profit decline, the demand side is restricted by funds and weather factors, showing a regional differentiation of "weak in the north and strong in the south" with insufficient overall recovery momentum. Although the destocking of asphalt social inventory has relieved market pressure, the marginal increase in refinery inventory also indicates increasing sales pressure [4]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Profit Affects Supply - Recently, the asphalt futures 2601 contract dropped to around 3,000 yuan/ton. The current fundamentals continue the situation of weak supply and demand, with light trading in the spot market and a continuous weakening of the basis between futures and spot, highlighting the pattern of a lackluster peak season [2]. - Since the fourth quarter, affected by the fluctuation of international crude oil prices, asphalt processing profits have been in a loss state. For example, Shandong local refineries once suffered losses of more than 600 yuan/ton in asphalt processing. Although the processing profits have recently recovered, they are still far below normal levels. As a result, refineries' production enthusiasm has been dampened, and they have actively reduced asphalt output through maintenance or production conversion. As of the week of November 12, the average theoretical asphalt processing profit in China was -593.2 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 58.8 yuan/ton; the capacity utilization rate of 92 asphalt refineries in China was 30.8%, a weekly decrease of 1.1 percentage points; and the weekly asphalt output was 514,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 3.4% [2]. - Currently, the capacity utilization rate of domestic asphalt refineries is at a near five-year high, and asphalt production is at a near five-year medium-high level. Against the backdrop of still high supply pressure, the spot price of asphalt has continued to decline since November. As of November 12, the average spot price of asphalt was 3,211 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 120 yuan/ton, or a decline of 3.6%. The supply in Shandong has increased significantly, refineries' enthusiasm for releasing contracts has risen, and considering the decrease in downstream consumption during the off-season, prices are under pressure [2]. Terminal Recovery is Weak - The downstream demand for asphalt is mainly for road infrastructure, accounting for up to 70%. Its prosperity is closely related to the issuance progress of local government special bonds and the availability of project funds. Although 2025 is the final year of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and some northern projects have the expectation of rushing to complete work, the overall infrastructure investment growth rate has fallen short of expectations, and the expected increase in demand during the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season did not occur. Poor fund availability has led to slow project progress, resulting in limited actual asphalt physical work volume [3]. - Judging from the operating rate data, the operating rates of major downstream industries such as heavy-traffic asphalt and modified asphalt are generally lower than historical levels, reflecting weak terminal demand recovery. In the second half of November, a new round of cold weather occurred in some northern regions, and market rigid demand gradually slowed down, with road construction basically at a standstill. In contrast, due to relatively favorable weather conditions in the southern region, some infrastructure projects still have the need to rush to complete work, which is currently one of the few demand bright spots. However, the southern market has a low acceptance of high-priced newly produced asphalt and prefers to purchase low-priced social inventory resources. As of the end of the first ten days of November, the total shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises was 362,000 tons, a weekly decrease of 18.7% [3]. De-stocking Pattern Continues - Currently, the inventory of domestic asphalt continues to decline. According to data from Longzhong Information, as of the week of November 17, the social inventory of asphalt dropped to 1.128 million tons, a weekly decrease of 1.5%. Among them, the social inventory in Shandong has decreased significantly. Some projects in Shandong are in the final stage, and industry players have mostly sold off their inventory, driving a significant reduction in social inventory. Although the northern terminals have entered the shutdown stage, the enthusiasm of traders for stockpiling is low, and the wait-and-see atmosphere has gradually become stronger. The refinery inventory rate is still at a relatively low level compared to the same period in recent years, and it still has a supporting effect on prices. With the rapid shrinkage of northern demand, if the southern rush-to-complete work demand cannot effectively take over, the refinery inventory pressure will gradually emerge in the later part of the fourth quarter [3].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The net short position of the asphalt futures 2601 contract has expanded, and the number of seats switching from long to short exceeds those switching from short to long, indicating an enhanced advantage for the bears. It is expected that the asphalt futures will maintain a weak and volatile trend in the future [6]. 3) Summary by Related Content Market Performance - Yesterday, the asphalt futures 2601 contract showed a volume - shrinking adjustment. The lowest price during the session dropped to 3027 yuan/ton, and it closed at 3032 yuan/ton. The open interest increased slightly by 1726 lots to 194477 lots [3]. Long - Position Changes of Top 20 Seats - Among the top 20 long - position seats of the asphalt futures 2601 contract, 10 seats increased their long positions. One seat, Dongzheng Futures, increased by 1412 lots. Eight seats increased between 100 and 1000 lots, and 1 seat increased by less than 100 lots [3]. Short - Position Changes of Top 20 Seats - Among the top 20 short - position seats, 13 seats increased their short positions. Three seats, Guotai Junan Futures, Galaxy Futures, and Dongzheng Futures, increased by over 1000 lots. Seven seats increased between 100 and 1000 lots, and 3 seats increased by less than 100 lots [4]. Position - Switching Operations - Two seats among the top 20 long and short seats carried out long - to - short operations, while no seats carried out short - to - long operations [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The asphalt market is expected to oscillate. The supply side shows a slight change in production, with the开工 rate increasing slightly but still at a relatively low level in recent years. The demand side is affected by factors such as funds and weather, and the inventory is at a low level in the same period in recent years. The crude oil price is oscillating, and it is recommended to cautiously observe the asphalt futures price [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Supply: This week, the asphalt开工 rate increased by 0.4 percentage points to 31.5% week - on - week, 2.1 percentage points higher than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years. In November, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 2.228 million tons, a decrease of 0.454 million tons (16.9%) month - on - month and a decrease of 0.274 million tons (11.0%) year - on - year. Some refineries have intermittent production, and the asphalt output will slightly decrease [1]. - Demand: This week, most of the开工 rates of downstream asphalt industries increased. The road asphalt开工 rate increased by 1 percentage point to 33% week - on - week, slightly exceeding the level of the same period last year, but is restricted by funds and weather. Projects in many northern regions are rushing to work, and the market is actively shipping, while the south is inquiring about low - priced goods [1]. - Inventory: The inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries continued to decline slightly week - on - week and remained at the lowest level in the same period in recent years [1]. - Price: The market digested the news of Russian oil sanctions. OPEC + eight countries may increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December. The meeting between Chinese and US leaders basically met market expectations, and the relationship between the two countries has not fundamentally changed. The crude oil price is oscillating. Recently, the basis of asphalt in Shandong has dropped significantly from a high level and is currently at a moderately high level [1]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Today, the asphalt futures contract 2601 fell 0.58% to 3,244 yuan/ton, below the 5 - day moving average. The lowest price was 3,225 yuan/ton, and the highest was 3,270 yuan/ton. The open interest increased by 3,151 to 199,947 lots [2]. - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong remained at 3,270 yuan/ton, and the basis of asphalt contract 01 fell to 26 yuan/ton, at a moderately high level [3]. 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Supply: Refineries such as Zhonghai Yingkou resumed asphalt production, and the asphalt开工 rate increased by 0.4 percentage points to 31.5% week - on - week, 2.1 percentage points higher than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years [4]. - Demand - related indicators: From January to August, the national highway construction investment decreased by 7.1% year - on - year. From January to September 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the actual completed investment in fixed assets of the road transport industry was - 2.7%, a slight increase from - 3.3% from January to August. From January to September 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the completed investment in fixed assets of infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) was 1.1%, a further decline from 2.0% from January to August [4]. - Social financing: From January to September 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.7%, a 0.1 - percentage - point decline from January to August. In September, the new social financing was as high as 3.53 trillion yuan, but it was 233.5 billion yuan less than the same period last year under a high base [4]. - Inventory: As of the week of October 31, the inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 15.3% compared with the week of October 24 and remained at the lowest level in the same period in recent years [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The long - position advantage of asphalt futures 2601 contract has increased, and the adjustment pressure has weakened. The expansion of net long positions and more short - to - long operations than long - to - short operations indicate that the long - position is strengthening, and it is expected that the asphalt price will stabilize and strengthen after a short - term adjustment [2][5][6] 3. Summary by Related Content - **Market Performance of Asphalt Futures 2601 Contract**: Yesterday, the contract showed a pattern of increasing volume, decreasing positions, weakening in shock, and a slight decline. The price center dropped slightly to below 3275 yuan/ton, with the lowest reaching 3252 yuan/ton. The closing price fell 0.21% to 3274 yuan/ton, and the positions decreased by 1242 to 196026, a decline of 0.63% [2] - **Change in Positions of Top 20 Long and Short Seats**: The positions of the top 20 long and short seats showed a pattern of both long and short increasing. The long positions increased by 2924 to 143435, and the short positions increased by 2848 to 141415. The net long positions expanded to 2020 [2] - **Details of Long - Position Increase in Top 20 Long Seats**: Among the top 20 long seats, 8 increased long positions. 3 seats increased more than 500 long positions, including Guotai Junan Futures (3168), Huayuan Futures (1487), and Dongzheng Futures (841). 2 seats increased between 100 - 500 long positions, and the remaining 3 increased less than 100 [2] - **Details of Short - Position Increase in Top 20 Short Seats**: Among the top 20 short seats, 11 increased short positions. 4 seats increased more than 500 short positions, including Zheshang Futures (3272), Qiankun Futures (2457), Nanhua Futures (675), and Guolian Futures (1083). 5 seats increased between 100 - 500 short positions, and the remaining 2 increased less than 100 [3] - **Long - to - Short and Short - to - Long Operations**: Only 1 seat (Huatai Futures) carried out long - to - short operation, while 4 seats (Guotai Junan Futures, Dongzheng Futures, Galaxy Futures, Zhongtai Futures) carried out short - to - long operations [5]

Core Viewpoint - The asphalt futures 2601 contract experienced a volatile consolidation, with a closing price of 3274 yuan/ton and a slight decrease in open interest by 1242 contracts to 196,026 contracts, reflecting a 0.63% decline [1]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The top 20 positions in the futures market showed an increase in both long and short positions, with long positions rising by 2924 contracts to 143,435 contracts and short positions increasing by 2848 contracts to 141,415 contracts, resulting in a net long position expansion to 2020 contracts [1]. - Among the top 20 long positions, eight entities increased their long positions, with three firms—Guotai Junan Futures, Huayuan Futures, and Dongzheng Futures—raising their long positions by over 500 contracts, specifically by 3168, 1487, and 841 contracts respectively [1]. Group 2: Short Position Changes - In the top 20 short positions, 11 entities increased their short positions, with four firms—Zhejiang Merchants Futures, Qiankun Futures, Nanhua Futures, and Guolian Futures—raising their short positions by over 500 contracts, specifically by 3272, 2457, 675, and 1083 contracts respectively [2]. Group 3: Investor Sentiment - Notably, only one entity in the top 20 positions switched from long to short, indicating a cautious sentiment among investors regarding the potential for a rebound in asphalt prices. Huatai Futures reduced its long positions by 398 contracts while increasing its short positions by 476 contracts [4]. - Conversely, four entities adopted a short-to-long strategy, suggesting a belief in a potential price stabilization after a brief adjustment. Guotai Junan Futures, Dongzheng Futures, and others increased their long positions while reducing their short positions, reflecting a shift in investor sentiment towards a more bullish outlook [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The asphalt market is showing an oscillating upward trend. The supply is at a relatively high level, but there are plans to reduce production. The demand is affected by factors such as project progress, weather, and funds. The crude oil price has rebounded significantly from a low level, and the basis in Shandong has decreased from a high level. It is recommended to cautiously observe the asphalt futures price [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Supply: Last week, the asphalt operating rate increased by 1.3 percentage points to 35.8% week-on-week, 8.0 percentage points higher than the same period last year, at a neutral to low level in recent years. In October, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 2.682 million tons, a decrease of 0.004 million tons (0.1%) month-on-month and an increase of 0.35 million tons (15.0%) year-on-year. Some refineries have maintenance plans, and the asphalt output will decrease but still remain high [1]. - Demand: After the National Day holiday, the national shipment volume increased by 14.48% to 253,300 tons week-on-week, at a neutral to low level. The downstream operating rates of asphalt industries were mostly stable, with the road asphalt operating rate remaining flat at 29.0% week-on-week, still at the lowest level in recent years, restricted by funds and rainfall in some areas. The demand is affected by project rush in the north, cooling in some areas, increased rainfall in the south, and funds [1]. Futures and Spot Market - Futures: Today, the asphalt futures 2601 contract rose 2.31% to 3,277 yuan/ton, above the 5-day moving average. The lowest price was 3,236 yuan/ton, and the highest was 3,300 yuan/ton. The trading volume increased by 7,848 to 194,697 lots [2]. - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong rose to 3,340 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 01 contract fell to 53 yuan/ton, at a neutral to high level [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: The operating rate of asphalt in Shandong and East China increased by 1.3 percentage points to 35.8% week-on-week, 8.0 percentage points higher than the same period last year, at a neutral to low level in recent years [1][4]. - Investment: From January to August, the national highway construction investment decreased by 7.1% year-on-year. From January to September, the fixed asset investment in road transportation decreased by 2.7% year-on-year, and the infrastructure construction investment (excluding electricity) increased by 1.1% year-on-year [4]. - Social Financing: From January to September, the social financing stock increased by 8.7% year-on-year, with the growth rate dropping by 0.1 percentage point from January to August. In September, the new social financing reached 3.53 trillion yuan, but it was 233.5 billion yuan less than the same period last year due to a high base [4]. Inventory - As of the week of October 17, the inventory-to-sales ratio of asphalt refineries increased by 0.8 percentage points to 16.6% week-on-week, still at the lowest level in recent years [5].