热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 作者：国泰君安期货市场分析师 张驰宁 Z0020302 今日开盘，国内有色贵金属市场再次经历了显著下跌，午后盘面状况并未出现改善迹象，甚至较今晨进 一步恶化，多数合约盘中触及跌停： | | 代码 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨幅(结)1 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | aq2604 | 沪银2604 | 24832 | -17.00% | | 2 | pd2606 | 把2606 | 413.70 | -16.00% | | 3 | pt2606 | 辑2606 | 552.15 | -16.00% | | ব | au2604 | 沪金2604 | 1020.40 | -14.75% | | ഗ | Ic2605 | 碳酸锂2605 | 134140 | -12.88% | | 6 | sn2603 | 沪锡2603 | 392650 | -11.00% | | 7 | ni2603 | 沪镇2603 | 130080 | -10.71% | | 8 | cu2603 | 沪铜2603 | 9858 ...

【导读】有色金属板块继续暴跌，个股开盘大面积跌停；石油石化板块不振，三大运营商集体走低；白酒股再度冲高 大家好！周一开工大吉，来一起关注最新的市场行情和资讯～ 2月2日，A股三大指数开盘涨跌互现：上证指数跌0.93%，深证成指跌0.54%，创业板指涨0.65%。上午市场窄幅震荡，截至发稿，上证指数、深证成指跌 幅有所收窄，创业板指持续飘红。 | | . | 14172.23 14172.23 | 3362.41 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 深证成指 -0.24% | 创业板指 +0.48% | | 4097.10 上证指数 -0.51% | | | | 盘面上，有色金属、石油石化等板块继续走低，黄金珠宝、工业金属、铜产业、先进封装、存储器、油气开采等方向大跌；特高压、白酒、饮料、智能电 网等概念股活跃。 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪银2604 | 24832 | -5087 | -17.00% | | 铂2606 | 552.15 -105.15 | | -16.00% | | 耙2606 | ...

刚刚，国内商品期货市场开盘后，主力合约多数下跌，其中贵金属、有色金属板块大幅下挫！ 继沪银上周五夜盘跌停后，今日铂、钯、锡也纷纷跌停。 | 代码 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨幅(结)↑ | 淵珠 | 淵速 | 买价 | 卖价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ag2604 | 沪银2604 | 24832 | -17.00% | -5087 | 0.00 | | 24832 | | pd2606 | 舞2606 | 413.70 | -16.00% | -78.80 | 0.00 | | 413.70 | | pt2606 | 铂2606 | 552.15 | -16.00% | -105.15 | 0.00 | | 552.15 | | au2604 | 沪金2604 | 1060.38 | -11.41% | -136.54 | 0.46 | 1060.06 | 1060.40 | | sn2603 | 沪锡2603 | 392650 | -11.00% | -48530 | 0.00 | | 392650 | | cu2603 | ...

文章来自公众号：懒人财知道 关注可免费领取全球研报特权 整体判断方法：从大到小 大宗商品整体是涨还是跌？ 上涨 商品最强的板块是：贵金属、有色金属 最强的品种：金、银、铜、铝 结论：围绕最强金属偏多操作 全球形式：通胀叙事继续，热钱涌动，美元估值存疑，特朗普说要走软，鲍威尔说要坚挺，在这样的混 乱形势下，金银飙升，铜价新高金融属性再次体现。当前形势下，不可再执着分析供求，投机属性，金 融属性更加严重。 一、核心交易品种及策略执行 1． 燃油2603 - 最终盈利达8%，分批止盈部分仓位，剩余仓位稳健持有。 2． 沪银2604 - 初始策略：偏多，仓位不超总权益10%，入场价29500-30020点，止损28630-29630点，止盈30400- 31400点（依据：避险情绪升温）。 - 盘中执行： - 最终盈利超30%，仅留小部分仓位持有，其余止盈离场。 二、整体交易成果 1． 品种表现：燃油、沪银、沪铜三大品种全线走强，均实现显著盈利，其中沪铜盈利超30%，沪银超 30%，燃油超8%，整体收益亮眼。 2． 策略有效性： - 初始策略：偏多，仓位不超总权益10%，入场价2780-2810点，止损2725-27 ...

Group 1: Copper Market - The main copper futures in Shanghai fell below 100,000 yuan, reaching a low of 99,210 yuan, while London copper retreated to around 12,785 USD [4][17]. - Macro sentiment is neutral to bearish, influenced by geopolitical tensions and fiscal concerns, leading to downward pressure on copper prices [5][18]. - LME copper inventory increased by 8,875 tons to 156,300 tons, while LME copper warrants decreased by 4,462 tons to 148,000 tons [5][18]. - Mantoverde is operating normally but is only producing at 75% capacity, with attention on strike adjustments [5][18]. - Short-term copper prices are expected to remain under pressure, with a reference trading range of 98,500 to 100,500 yuan per ton for the main Shanghai copper futures [5][18]. Group 2: Aluminum Market - Overnight alumina futures showed weak fluctuations, with spot prices stabilizing after a decline [19]. - Concerns over rising shipping costs before the Spring Festival have led traders to be less willing to sell at significant discounts [19]. - Some production companies in Guizhou and Guangxi are beginning maintenance and short-term shutdowns, which may scale up before the holiday [19]. - The registered amount of alumina warrants decreased significantly by over 70,000 tons to 116,000 tons, with physical warrants expected to flow to terminal aluminum plants [19]. - The 05 contract for alumina is expected to trade between 2,500 and 2,800 yuan per ton, with a recommendation to hold short positions [20]. Group 3: Zinc Market - Zinc prices showed weak fluctuations overnight, with macroeconomic factors and escalating trade tensions contributing to bearish sentiment [22]. - The supply side is affected by a slowdown in TC declines, while the demand side remains weak, particularly in the black metal sector [22]. - The current trading range for the main zinc contract is expected to be between 23,800 and 24,800 yuan per ton, with a recommendation to remain cautious [22]. Group 4: Lead Market - Lead prices showed weak fluctuations overnight, with supply pressures from both primary and secondary sources [23]. - The overall market sentiment is weak, with downstream purchasing intentions declining as the traditional off-season approaches [23]. - The expected trading range for the main lead contract is between 16,800 and 17,800 yuan per ton, with a recommendation for range trading [23]. Group 5: Precious Metals Market - Precious metals experienced a broad upward trend, with gold and silver breaking previous highs due to increased safe-haven buying amid geopolitical tensions [25]. - The European Parliament's suspension of trade agreement approvals and Trump's comments on potential military actions have heightened geopolitical risks, boosting demand for precious metals [25]. - The trading ranges for gold, silver, platinum, and palladium are set at 1,040-1,100 yuan per gram, 22,000-24,000 yuan per kilogram, 600-660 yuan per gram, and 480-530 yuan per gram, respectively [25].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic precious metals futures market experienced a collective decline on January 8, with significant drops in various contracts [2] Group 1: Market Performance - The main contracts for silver (沪银2604), nickel (沪镍2602), and platinum (铂2606) all fell by more than 5% [2] - Copper (沪铜2602) and palladium (钯2606) contracts saw declines exceeding 3% [2] - Gold (沪金2602) contract experienced a drop of over 1% [2]