2026 年 3 月 31 日申万期货品种策略日报-黄金白银 | | 申银万国期货研究所 | | | 陈梦赟（从业资格号：F03147376；交易咨询号：Z0022753） | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | chenmy@sywgqh.com.cn | 021-50585911 | | | | | | 沪金 2606 | 沪金 2604 | 沪银 2606 | 沪银 2604 | | | | 昨日收盘价 | 1014.88 | 1011.020 | 17707 | 17756 | | | 期 | 前日收盘价 | 998.66 | 995.180 | 17489 | 17558 | | | 货 | 涨跌（收盘价） | 16.22 | 15.840 | 218 | 198 | | | 市 | 涨跌幅（收盘价） | 1.62% | 1.59% | 1.25% | 1.13% | | | 场 | 持仓量 | 180953 | 16017 | 233885 | 25923 | | | | 成交量 | 393515 | 45178 | 10 ...

1.【美媒：数百名美国特种作战部队人员已抵达中东地区】据纽约时报报道，两名美国军方官员在 当地时间周日表示，数百名美国特种作战部队人员已抵达中东地区，与数千名海军陆战队队员和陆 军伞兵一同参与此次部署行动。此举旨在为特朗普总统提供更多手段，以扩大与伊朗为期一个月的 军事冲突。 2.美国总统特朗普：古巴将在短时间内垮台。 宏 观 消 息 3.【特朗普：最想干的事就是获取伊朗石油】美国总统特朗普在周日接受英国《金融时报》采访时 表示，他希望"夺取伊朗的石油资源"，甚至可能占领哈尔克岛这一重要的出口枢纽。与此同时， 美国已向中东派遣了数千名士兵。特朗普还将这一可能的行动与委内瑞拉的情况进行了比较。特朗 普说："老实跟你说吧，我最想做的事就是从伊朗获取石油，但美国国内的一些蠢货却说：'你为 什么要这么做？'但他们就是一群蠢货。"特朗普表示："或许我们会占领哈尔克岛，或许不会。 我们有很多选择。""这还意味着我们得在哈尔克岛待上一段时间。"当被问及哈尔克岛上的伊朗 国防状况时，特朗普回答道："我认为他们根本没有防御设施。我们很容易就能将其拿下。" 4.【美官员透露特朗普考虑采取军事行动获取伊朗铀料】据华尔街日报报道，美 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views - Precious metals fluctuated and declined. The overall CPI in the US in February met expectations, and the impact of oil prices was not yet reflected. The conflict between the US and Iran remained stalemate, oil prices soared again, inflation expectations rose, and the market's expectations for Fed rate cuts were revised downwards, suppressing the performance of precious metals. In the long - term, the price center of precious metals will continue to move up. Market concerns about the US fiscal sustainability are still intensifying, and with the reconstruction of the global political and economic order, the diversification of global central bank reserve assets, and the continuous progress of the de - dollarization process, the long - term upward trend of gold remains unchanged. Silver, platinum, and palladium resonate with both industrial and financial attributes, following the overall sector trend but with relatively larger fluctuations [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Gold Futures**: For沪金2606, the previous day's closing price was 1155.52, yesterday's closing price was 1151.52, with a decrease of 4.00 and a decline rate of - 0.35%. The trading volume was 65754, and the open interest was 137300. For沪金2604, the previous day's closing price was 1151.980, yesterday's closing price was 1148.100, with a decrease of 3.880 and a decline rate of - 0.34%. The trading volume was 163830, and the open interest was 105803 [2] - **Silver Futures**: For沪银2606, the previous day's closing price was 22256, yesterday's closing price was 22062, with a decrease of 194 and a decline rate of - 0.87%. The trading volume was 414009, and the open interest was 206073. For沪银2604, the previous day's closing price was 22409, yesterday's closing price was 22225, with a decrease of 184 and a decline rate of - 0.82%. The trading volume was 89591, and the open interest was 90728 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - **Gold Spot**: The previous day's closing price of Shanghai Gold T + D was 1150.30, yesterday's closing price was 1146.26, with a decrease of 4.04 and a decline rate of - 0.35%. The price of London gold (USD/ounce) was 5182.88 the previous day and 5077.94 yesterday, with a decrease of 104.94 and a decline rate of - 2.02% [2] - **Silver Spot**: The previous day's closing price of Shanghai Silver T + D was 21999, yesterday's closing price was 21851, with a decrease of 148 and a decline rate of - 0.67%. The price of London silver (USD/ounce) was 85.73 the previous day and 83.78 yesterday, with a decrease of 1.95 and a decline rate of - 2.27% [2] 3.3 Inventory - **Gold Inventory**: The current inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange gold is 105,420 kg, an increase of 510 kg from the previous value. The current inventory of COMEX gold is 32,656,407 ounces, a decrease of 64302 ounces from the previous value [2] - **Silver Inventory**: The current inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange silver is 309,974 kg, an increase of 58115 kg from the previous value. The current inventory of COMEX silver is 344,324,824 ounces, a decrease of 216978 ounces from the previous value [2] 3.4 Related Market Indicators - The current value of the US dollar index is 99.74, an increase of 0.53 from the previous value. The current value of the S&P 500 index is 6,672.62, a decrease of 103.18 from the previous value. The yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond is 4.27%, an increase of 0.06% from the previous value. The price of Brent crude oil is 101.75, an increase of 8.12 from the previous value. The US dollar to RMB exchange rate is 6.8752, an increase of 0.0052 from the previous value [2] 3.5 Derivatives - The current position of the SPDR Gold ETF is 1,076 tons, a decrease of 1 ton from the previous value. The current position of the SLV Silver ETF is 15,539 tons, unchanged from the previous value. The net position of CFTC speculators in gold is 160,145, an increase of 968 from the previous value. The net position of CFTC speculators in silver is 23,338, an increase of 1078 from the previous value [2] 3.6 Macro News - The US Treasury is providing a temporary authorization to allow countries to purchase Russian oil stranded at sea to expand the global coverage of existing supplies [3] - Iran reported that a US military tanker was shot down by a resistance organization in western Iraq, and all crew members died. The US military said a KC - 135 tanker crashed in western Iraq during the "Epic Rage" operation, and the cause was not due to enemy fire or friendly fire. Another KC - 135 was hit but landed in Israel [3] - CME warned that if the US government intervenes in the oil futures market, it will cause an epic disaster [3] - Iran's armed forces stated that any attack on its energy facilities and ports will be met with a devastating counter - attack [3] - Chile signed a joint statement on critical minerals and rare earths with the US [3]

Group 1: Copper Market - The main copper futures in Shanghai fluctuated around 101,730 yuan, with a continuous decrease in open interest, while London copper retreated to the lower end of 13,100 USD [4][17] - The macroeconomic outlook is neutral, with the upcoming US non-farm payroll report causing cautious market sentiment, compounded by the approaching Chinese New Year leading to reduced capital enthusiasm [5][17] - On the fundamental side, copper warehouse receipts increased by 8,811 tons to 165,900 tons, and LME copper inventories rose by 4,800 tons to 189,100 tons, indicating a lack of upward momentum for copper prices in the short term [6][17] - The expected trading range for Shanghai copper futures is between 99,800 and 102,500 yuan per ton, with strategies suggesting to manage positions carefully before the holiday and consider long positions at lower prices [6][17] Group 2: Nickel and Stainless Steel - The spot transactions for pure nickel are sluggish, with a decline in intermediate product ratios weakening the cost support for nickel sulfate, and downstream transactions are also quiet as the holiday approaches [18] - Demand for Indonesian nickel ore remains strong, but domestic procurement is hindered by negative feedback within the industry chain [18] - The trading range for nickel futures is suggested to be between 130,000 and 145,000 yuan per ton, while stainless steel is expected to trade between 13,000 and 14,500 yuan per ton [18] Group 3: Aluminum Market - Overnight aluminum futures prices slightly retreated, while domestic alumina spot prices showed a small increase [20] - A northern alumina production enterprise has temporarily suspended part of its roasting and leaching capacity, potentially affecting 2 million tons of capacity, but this reduction is not expected to significantly alter the current oversupply situation [20] - The expected trading range for alumina futures is between 2,600 and 2,950 yuan per ton, with a recommendation to sell on rebounds [20] Group 4: Zinc Market - Shanghai zinc showed a strong fluctuation overnight, with macroeconomic indicators such as poor US retail data raising expectations for interest rate cuts, although market sentiment remains cautious [22] - The processing fees for zinc are expected to see a slight increase in February, while smelters are reducing production ahead of the holiday [22] - The expected trading range for Shanghai zinc futures is between 24,000 and 25,000 yuan per ton, with a recommendation to remain observant [22] Group 5: Lead Market - Shanghai lead showed strong fluctuations overnight, with tight supply of lead concentrate and reduced production from smelters ahead of the holiday [23] - The overall supply and demand situation remains weak, with increasing inventory levels as downstream purchasing slows down [23] - The expected trading range for Shanghai lead futures is between 16,500 and 17,500 yuan per ton, with a recommendation for range trading [23] Group 6: Precious Metals - Precious metals experienced slight declines due to hawkish statements from Federal Reserve officials, which suppressed rate cut expectations [25] - Despite the pressure from the Fed's stance, signals of a weakening US economy and geopolitical tensions provide some support for precious metal prices [25] - The expected trading ranges for precious metals are: gold between 1,080 and 1,160 yuan per gram, silver between 19,000 and 22,000 yuan per kilogram, platinum between 520 and 570 yuan per gram, and palladium between 410 and 460 yuan per gram [25]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided Core View - Precious metals rebounded after a significant shock, mainly influenced by the nomination of the Fed chair and fund stampede. The nomination of Kevin Warsh, a traditional hawk, cooled the expectation of interest rate cuts and led to a rebound in the US dollar index. A large number of funds took profits. In the long run, the supporting factors for the upward movement of gold have not reversed. After the market is fully adjusted and new positive factors accumulate, gold is expected to return to a steady upward channel. Due to the higher volatility of silver and the relatively low gold - silver ratio, investors are advised to wait and see [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The closing prices of Shanghai Gold 2606 and 2604 decreased by 1.48% and 1.41% respectively, and those of Shanghai Silver 2606 and 2604 decreased by 7.93% and 7.19% respectively compared with the previous day [2] - **Positions and Volumes**: The positions of Shanghai Gold 2606 and 2604 are 84,618 and 163,840 respectively, and the trading volumes are 126,031 and 494,742 respectively. The positions of Shanghai Silver 2606 and 2604 are 128,060 and 227,163 respectively, and the trading volumes are 597,736 and 1,291,544 respectively [2] - **Spot Premium and Discount**: The spot premium and discount of Shanghai Gold 2606 is - 1.23, and that of Shanghai Gold 2604 is 1.37. The spot premium and discount of Shanghai Silver 2606 is 253, and that of Shanghai Silver 2604 is - 602 [2] Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The closing price of Shanghai Gold T + D decreased by 1.30%, and the closing price of London Gold increased by 3.98%. The closing price of Shanghai Silver T + D decreased by 8.49%, and the closing price of London Silver increased by 9.70% [2] - **Price Ratios**: The current value of Shanghai Gold 2606 - Shanghai Gold 2604 is 2.60, and the current value of Shanghai Silver 2606 - Shanghai Silver 2604 is - 855.00. The current value of the gold - silver ratio (spot) is 59.98, the ratio of Shanghai Gold to London Gold is 0.98, and the ratio of Shanghai Silver to London Silver is 1.05 [2] Inventory - **Changes**: The inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange gold remained unchanged at 104,052 kilograms, and the inventory of silver decreased by 62,559 kilograms to 349,900 kilograms. The COMEX gold inventory decreased by 121,403 ounces to 35,370,105 ounces, and the COMEX silver inventory decreased by 3,498,075 ounces to 394,511,408 ounces [2] Related Derivatives - **Positions and Changes**: The position of SPDR Gold ETF decreased by 2 tons to 1,076 tons, and the position of SLV Silver ETF decreased by 56 tons to 16,191 tons. The net position of CFTC speculators in gold decreased by 39,792 to 165,604, and the net position in silver increased by 2,174 to 25,877 [2] Macro Information - **Political News**: The scandal of Peter Mandelson's appointment as the British Ambassador to Washington has put pressure on Prime Minister Starmer. His chief of staff Morgan McSweeney resigned, and there are speculations about Starmer's possible resignation. In the Japanese House of Representatives election, the ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party and the Japan Innovation Party won a majority of seats [3] - **Market Trends**: The yen continued its recent decline in the Asian trading session on Monday. The market is concerned about the design and communication of fiscal policies. The US Treasury Secretary believes that gold is in a typical speculative selling market and does not expect the Fed to take rapid action on the balance - sheet issue [3]

Market Sentiment - The market sentiment is currently weak, with significant volatility observed in precious metals and non-ferrous metals [3][4][7]. Precious Metals - Silver futures experienced a drastic drop, with SHFE silver contracts falling by 15%, while gold also saw a decline of over 5% at one point during the trading session [15][31]. - The recent sell-off in precious metals is attributed to a combination of profit-taking by investors and increased trading costs due to margin hikes (gold to 9%, silver to 18%) [7][23]. - Analysts suggest that the macroeconomic environment remains bearish, with the Federal Reserve maintaining a tightening stance to control inflation, which diminishes support for precious metal prices [31][30]. Coal and Coke - The main contract for coking coal fell by 3.68% to 1138.5 yuan/ton, while coke prices decreased by 2.64% to 1698.5 yuan/ton, reflecting weak demand and ongoing inventory accumulation at steel mills [16][17]. - The market is expected to continue facing weak demand post-holiday, with a focus on inventory digestion rather than new purchases [32][17]. Crude Oil - Crude oil prices are experiencing significant fluctuations due to geopolitical tensions, particularly related to Iran, with WTI and Brent crude both dropping over 3% recently [33][34]. - The SC crude oil contract showed relative resilience, closing down only 0.37% at 465.4 yuan/barrel, despite initial larger declines [33][34]. - Market analysts note that while geopolitical risks remain, concerns about direct military conflict in the Middle East have eased, leading to a complex interplay of supply and demand factors affecting oil prices [34][18].

Market Sentiment - The market sentiment is currently weak, with a strong rebound observed in precious metals and a recovery in coal prices [2][6]. Key Highlights - Silver futures surged by 11% today, while all precious metals experienced a significant rebound [3][4]. - PVC saw a massive increase in open interest, exceeding 100,000 contracts, indicating strong buying interest [3][8]. Geopolitical Factors - The escalation of tensions between the U.S. and Iran, including the downing of a drone and increased military readiness, has heightened risk aversion in the market [6][16]. - Despite the geopolitical tensions, discussions regarding nuclear negotiations are set to take place on Friday [7]. Commodity Performance - Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, saw substantial gains, with gold rising by 7.29% and silver by 11.22% [15]. - Coal futures also experienced a rise, with coking coal increasing by 3.6% to 1,209 CNY/ton, marking a three-week high [16]. Investment Insights - Analysts suggest that the recent volatility in precious metals is driven by geopolitical uncertainties and market corrections after previous declines [15][16]. - The focus remains on upcoming non-farm payroll data and ongoing geopolitical developments, which may sustain high volatility in the market [13]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of methanol at ports decreased by 60,000 tons, while PVC's open interest indicates a strong bottom-fishing sentiment [8][17]. - The palm oil inventory in Malaysia ended a ten-month increase, expected to drop to 2.91 million tons [9]. Market Outlook - The market is expected to maintain high volatility and wide fluctuations due to the dual impact of risk aversion and policy expectations [16]. - The sentiment in the double焦 (coking coal) futures market is influenced more by funds and emotions rather than fundamentals, suggesting a cautious approach to trading [17].

Core Viewpoint - The international gold and silver prices have rebounded significantly, with gold prices surpassing $5000 per ounce, driven by factors such as a decline in risk appetite and a weakening US dollar [3][6][10]. Group 1: Price Movements - Spot gold prices broke the $5000 mark again on February 4, rising over 2% [1][7]. - The price of gold on the New York Mercantile Exchange reached $4900 per ounce before surpassing $5000 [3][8]. - Domestic futures for silver and gold saw significant increases, with silver rising over 8% and gold over 6% on February 4 [3][4]. Group 2: Market Drivers - The rebound in gold and silver prices is attributed to unchanged demand fundamentals, with global central banks purchasing gold and private investors increasing their gold holdings for asset diversification [6][10]. - The industrial demand for silver continues to support its price, indicating a positive outlook for both gold and silver prices [6][10].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant increase in domestic commodity futures, particularly in precious metals, with silver leading the gains at over 8% [1] - As of the report, silver futures (沪银2604) reached a price of 22,854.00, reflecting an increase of 8.11%, while gold futures (沪金2604) rose to 1,130.00, up by 6.19% [2] - Other notable increases include tin (沪锡2603) at 398,660.00, up 6.79%, and platinum (铂) at a rise of 5.06% [2] Group 2 - Spot gold prices have surpassed 5,040 USD/ounce, marking a daily increase of 2%, while spot silver has risen by 1.68% to 86.852 USD/ounce [3] - The highest price for gold reached 5,048.893 USD/ounce, with a daily increase of 2.07% compared to the previous day [4]

Market Overview - The market sentiment is currently weak, with significant divergence observed across different sectors. Silver has experienced a sharp decline, while lithium and lithium battery stocks have rebounded violently [2][19] - The Shanghai silver contract (SHFE ag2604) fell by 16.71%, continuing its downward trend after a previous limit down, while gold showed signs of stabilization with a slight increase of 0.63% [11][30] Precious Metals - The recent geopolitical developments, particularly the U.S.-Iran interactions, have led to a weakened demand for safe-haven assets, contributing to the volatility in gold and silver prices. The U.S. government shutdown has delayed the release of key employment data, exacerbating market uncertainty [5][11] - The Shanghai Gold Exchange has adjusted margin requirements and price limits for gold and silver, with silver's limit set at 23% due to ongoing delivery difficulties [24] Energy Sector - The SC crude oil contract saw a significant drop of 4.93%, closing at 449.4 yuan per barrel, amid ongoing geopolitical tensions and uncertainty regarding U.S.-Iran negotiations [14][33] - The market is currently in a state of flux, awaiting the outcome of diplomatic talks, which could influence oil prices significantly. The OPEC+ decision to maintain current production levels is also a factor in the market dynamics [15][34] Agricultural Products - The domestic soybean meal inventory is expected to decrease to around 650,000 tons by the end of February, driven by seasonal shutdowns and post-holiday restocking [7] - The agricultural sector is showing signs of recovery, with significant capital inflow into soybean meal futures as investors anticipate a rebound [10] Silicon Industry - The multi-crystalline silicon futures have rebounded sharply, with the main contract rising by 6.61%, supported by expectations surrounding an upcoming industry conference [12][31] - The production forecast for February has been adjusted downwards to 79,700 tons from an initial 90,000 tons, indicating a slight supply-demand gap in the market [31][32]