Investment Rating of the Report The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold prices are trending upward with strong performance, influenced by the risk - aversion sentiment due to the implementation of reciprocal tariffs by the US. The potential US tariff on Swiss gold imports has significantly increased the premium of COMEX gold over London gold. The short - term trend of the US dollar is weak. The US stock index futures face the need for more data to verify the intensification of economic downward pressure, and there is a risk of correction at the current level. The bond market is in a favorable period in early August, but the upward rhythm is relatively tortuous. For various commodities, their prices are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, policies, and international situations [14][19][23][31]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US allows 401(k) investors to invest in alternative assets. Trump nominates a new Fed governor. China's gold reserves increased by 1.86 tons in July. Gold prices are trending upward, and there are arbitrage opportunities due to the widening regional price difference [12][13][14]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Miran is nominated as a Fed governor by Trump. The US dollar is expected to weaken in the short term [18][19]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Trump nominates Stephen Miran as a Fed governor. The risk in the job market has increased, and inflation expectations have risen in July. The possibility of a Fed rate cut within the year has increased in the short term, but the long - term independence of the Fed is affected. Attention should be paid to the risk of correction [21][22][23]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - China's import and export data in July exceeded expectations. It is recommended to allocate various stock indices evenly [25][27][28]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations. China's import and export data in July exceeded expectations. The sustainability of strong export growth is questionable. The bond market is in a favorable period in early August, but the upward rhythm is tortuous, and the timing of going long should be carefully grasped [29][30][31]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - China imported 1166.6 million tons of soybeans in July. ANEC expects Brazil to export 815 million tons of soybeans in August. US soybean exports were better than expected, and CBOT soybeans stopped falling and stabilized. The supply in China may tighten in the fourth quarter if no US soybeans are purchased. The operating center of soybean meal futures prices is expected to move up [33][35][37]. 2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - China imported 53.4 million tons of edible vegetable oil in July. The oil market is expected to maintain a strong - side oscillating trend. It is not recommended to enter the market today, and existing long positions can be held [39]. 2.3 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The excavator monthly operation rate in July was 56.7%. The inventory of five major steel products increased this week, suppressing the market. Steel prices are driven by policies, but it is difficult for spot prices to rise. It is recommended to be cautious about market rallies [40][41][42]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The operating rate of the corn starch industry increased, and inventory accumulated again. The supply - demand situation does not support the strengthening of the rice - flour price difference, and the regional price difference may be unfavorable to the 09 contract [44][45]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The northern port inventory is similar to that of the same period last year. The inventory of deep - processing enterprises decreased, and consumption slightly increased. It is recommended to hold new - crop short positions and pay attention to the weather [47][48][49]. 2.6 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The price of steam coal in the northern port market was strong on August 7. The coal price is expected to remain strong in the short term, but it is difficult to continue to rebound. Attention should be paid to the change in daily consumption in mid - August [49]. 2.7 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - China imported 10462.3 million tons of iron ore and its concentrates in July. The ore price is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short term [50][51]. 2.8 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - India's cotton planting area in the 25/26 season is 1058.7 million hectares. Vietnamese textile enterprises have weak restocking intentions. Textile and clothing exports declined in July. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to have limited room for further decline in the short term and may rebound [52][53][54]. 2.9 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The online auction price of coking coal in Jinzhong Lingshi market increased. The coking coal market has strong speculation sentiment due to policy and inspection factors, and the impact on the fundamentals depends on further policies [58][59]. 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Alumina) - A large - scale alumina enterprise in Guangxi postponed the maintenance of a roasting furnace to August 16. The alumina futures price is expected to be weakly oscillating, and it is recommended to wait and see [60][61]. 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Jingao's project is under pre - approval publicity. The spot transaction price has increased, and the polysilicon price is expected to operate between 45000 - 57000 yuan/ton in the short term. A strategy of selling out - of - the - money put options can be considered [62][63][64]. 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The social inventory of industrial silicon increased by 0.7 million tons. The supply may increase slightly in August, and the balance sheet may still show inventory reduction. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long at 8000 - 8500 yuan/ton [65][67]. 2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - China's copper import volume increased in July. A copper mine accident in Chile affected production. The macro - sentiment is favorable to copper prices in the short term, but inventory accumulation suppresses the market. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and pay attention to the internal - external reverse arbitrage strategy [68][70][71]. 2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - LME nickel inventory decreased by 240 tons on August 7. The nickel price is difficult to decline deeply in the short term. It is recommended to pay attention to short - term band opportunities and medium - term short - selling opportunities at high prices [73][74][75]. 2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Australia will invest in a lithium project. The demand is strong in August, and the supply risk remains. It is recommended to wait and see before the risk event is resolved and take profit on the 9 - 11 reverse arbitrage [76][77]. 2.16 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - Pan American Silver's lead concentrate production increased in the second quarter. The lead price has cost support at the bottom. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long at low prices and wait and see for arbitrage [78][79]. 2.17 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Pan American Silver's zinc concentrate production increased in the second quarter. The zinc price may continue to rise in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and pay attention to the medium - term positive arbitrage opportunity [80][81][82]. 2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - China's LPG weekly commodity volume increased slightly, and the inventory situation changed. The fundamentals are weak, and attention should be paid to the behavior of factory warehouses [83][84]. 2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emission) - The CEA price is oscillating. It is recommended to buy on dips cautiously for enterprises with quota demand [85][86]. 2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong decreased, and the inventory increased. The downward space of caustic soda is limited [87][88][89]. 2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp is stable. The pulp market is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short term [91]. 2.22 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC powder market is locally weak. The PVC price is expected to oscillate in the short term due to cost support from coal [92][93]. 2.23 Energy and Chemicals (PX) - PX supply may increase, and PTA is in a loss. PX may accumulate inventory in August - September, and the market is expected to oscillate in the short term [93][94]. 2.24 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - The operating rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has been adjusted locally. The downstream is still in the off - season, and the PTA market is expected to oscillate in the short term [95][96][97]. 2.25 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - A new styrene device of Jingbo has produced qualified products. The styrene market is expected to oscillate at the current price [99]. 2.26 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The inventory of soda ash manufacturers increased. In the medium term, a strategy of short - selling at high prices can be considered for soda ash [100]. 2.27 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The inventory of float glass manufacturers increased. The glass price is expected to oscillate. It is recommended to be cautious in single - side trading and focus on arbitrage [101][102]. 2.28 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - China's import and export data from January to July was released. The container freight rate is expected to be weakly oscillating, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of short - selling on rebounds [103][104].

| 112 > 国技期货 | | 能源 日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | 操作评级 | | 2025年07月24日 | | 原油 | なな女 | 高明宇 首席分析师 | | 燃料油 | ☆☆☆ | F0302201 Z0012038 | | 低硫燃料油 | | 李祖智 中级分析师 | | 沥青 | なな女 | F3063857 Z0016599 | | 液化石油气 ★☆☆ | | 王盈敏 中级分析师 | | | | F3066912 Z0016785 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 三季度旺季石油市场延续了上半年的累库趋势,其中原油去库0.6%、成品油累库1.7%。OPEC+增产路径下石油市 场的供需盈余压力始终存在。7月原油市场进入伊以冲突剧烈波动后的震荡修复期，近期月差、现货升贴水转 弱,海外柴油裂解在东西套利窗口打开后亦有所回落,此前支撑市场的旺季强现实因素转弱。尽管美日协议以 利好落地,美国与欧盟、中国的贸易战风险仍令市场面临需求预期冲击,近期相关利空风险大于地缘端利多, 油价以震荡承压为主;8 ...

| 《八》 国资期货 | | 能源 日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年07月03日 | | 原油 | ☆☆☆ | 高明宇 首席分析师 | | 燃料油 | ☆☆☆ | F0302201 Z0012038 | | 低硫燃料油 文文☆ | | 李祖智 中级分析师 | | 沥青 | ☆☆☆ | F3063857 Z0016599 | | 液化石油气 ★☆☆ | | | | | | 王盈敏 中级分析师 | | | | F3066912 Z0016785 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【燃料油&低硫燃料油】 油价受利好消息领涨油品期货,今日燃油系期货均小幅收涨。高硫方面,船加注及深加工需求低迷,中东、北 非夏季发电对高疏燃油需求提振因高硫裂解估值偏高而大打折扣，FU震荡偏弱，在油价短期受利好消息提振后 FU裂解走弱：此前焦化利润走强，低硫燃料油固分流效应短期供应压力有限,然需求方面亦缺乏驱动,LU走势 震荡为主。 【沥青】 1-7月国内炼厂沥青累计产量同比预计增长7%。年初以来54家样 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent volatility in international gold prices presents both opportunities and risks for investors, with a recommendation to consider long-term strategic investments in gold as a hedge against market uncertainties [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends - Since May, international gold prices have experienced significant fluctuations, with notable increases and decreases, including a peak of $3509.9 per ounce for COMEX gold and $3500.12 per ounce for London spot gold [1]. - The global trade war risks previously supported gold prices, but recent progress in US-China trade talks has led to a decrease in risk premiums and a decline in short-term safe-haven demand [1]. Group 2: Long-term Investment Perspective - Gold is influenced by various factors beyond trade risks, including the US dollar's performance, investor confidence in dollar assets, US government debt sustainability, inflation expectations, geopolitical risks, and central bank gold purchases [2]. - The World Gold Council encourages viewing gold as a strategic asset that can provide long-term returns, reduce portfolio volatility, and offer liquidity during market turmoil [2][3]. Group 3: Demand and Supply Dynamics - The World Gold Council's report indicates that global gold demand reached 1206 tons in Q1 2025, a slight increase of 1% year-on-year, marking the highest level for that period since 2016 [2]. - Strong investment demand, driven by central bank purchases and improved global gold ETF demand, is a key factor supporting overall gold demand [2]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - For individual and institutional investors, a recommended allocation of 5%-10% in gold can enhance the risk-return profile of a typical 60/40 stock-bond portfolio [3]. - The recent increase in gold price volatility suggests that investors should exercise caution in their investment strategies [3].

来源：中信建投期货 作者：中信建投期货 研报正文 观点与操作策略 相关消息 美国总统特朗普宣布，授权商务部和美国贸易代表立即启动程序，对所有在国外制作的进入美国的电影征收 100%的关税。他表示，正在就贸易协议与许多国家进行会晤，本周可能达成一些贸易协议。 假期期间，贵金属呈先抑后扬的状态，美国超预期的非农就业缓解市场对经济的担忧，美联储降息预期走低，使 得贵金属一度回落，但周一市场对关税担忧再度提升，因特朗普称将对所有在外国制作的电影征收关税，市场风 险偏好回落，金银均出现反弹。此外，美国 ISM 服务业表现超预期，美国经济数据继续表现为强现实与弱预期 的状态，市场等待关税影响进一步显现。总体来看，贸易战风险仍是市场主线，贵金属支撑仍存，长牛行情有望 持续。 操作上，长线多单继续持有。沪金 2506 参考区间 770-820 元/克，沪银 2506 参考区间 8000-8400 元/千克。 行情回顾 （转自：曲合期货） 美国 4 月 ISM 服务业指数意外不降反升至 51.6，价格指数创两年多新高，就业和新订单改善。 美国 4 月非农就业人口增长 17.7 万人，预期 13.8 万人，前两个月的增长数据被下 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★ [1] - Fuel oil: ★★★ [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★★★ [1] - Asphalt: ★★★ [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ★★★ [1] Core Viewpoints - The cost support for oil prices remains effective, but due to risks such as trade wars and OPEC+ production increases, the space for a sharp rebound in oil prices is limited, and short-term prices may fluctuate within a range [2] - The futures of the fuel oil system showed a divergent trend today, with different factors affecting the cracking spreads of high-sulfur and low-sulfur fuel oils [3] - Today, asphalt prices rebounded following crude oil. The fundamentals of asphalt itself are affected by factors such as processing profits and refinery maintenance, and its price trend is influenced by crude oil in the short term [3] - The external market quotation of LPG has stabilized, and the domestic market has a cautious purchasing attitude. The futures price has certain support under a high premium to the spot price, and attention should be paid to the contraction of chemical demand after the reshaping of the trade flow [4] Summary by Category Crude Oil - EIA lowered the oil demand growth rate for this year and next year. The cost support for oil prices is still effective, but considering various risks, the short-term oil price may fluctuate within a range [2] Fuel Oil - The futures of the fuel oil system showed a divergent trend today, with FU rising more than LU. The cracking spread of FU is supported by the tight supply of heavy oil resources, while the cracking spread of LU is under downward pressure due to increased supply and a decline in the diesel cracking spread in Singapore [3] Asphalt - Today, BU rebounded following crude oil. The processing profit of diluted asphalt for refineries is poor, and the production enthusiasm is suppressed. The second-quarter operating rate of major refineries is restricted by maintenance. The short-term price trend of asphalt is influenced by crude oil [3] LPG - The external market quotation of LPG has stabilized, and the domestic market has a cautious purchasing attitude. The futures price has certain support under a high premium to the spot price. After the crude oil stabilizes, the driving force for the futures price to rebound is expected to increase [4]