周五当天，受贸易战风险加剧、美政府停摆持续等因素影响，全球市场风险情绪极速下滑，美欧股市集体重挫，道指跌近2%，标普500指数跌逾 2.5%，纳指跌超3.5%。 （本文综合新浪财经） 周五，美国股市在剧烈震荡中大幅收低，市场信心骤降，避险情绪升温。 此次全球市场大跌主要由中美贸易关系紧张、美国政府停摆、科技股获利盘回调等因素引发。 市场情绪明显转向避险，资金流向防御性板块和避险资产。 在市场大跌之后，国内顶级游资陈小群在社交媒体上披露其仓位情况，称" 周一最多也就只能亏三千万，竟然莫名的有一丝感动 "，引发业内关注。 财经博主@混沌与概率1997点评称"算清楚了，安心了"。 Wind用户在金融终端输入 IBR（投行业务排行榜） 纵观股票、债券一级承销风云 过去十年投行承销排名一应俱全 分行业、分地域多维度呈现市场融资规模 点" 阅读原文 "，申请Wind金融终端 ...

Investment Rating of the Report The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold prices are trending upward with strong performance, influenced by the risk - aversion sentiment due to the implementation of reciprocal tariffs by the US. The potential US tariff on Swiss gold imports has significantly increased the premium of COMEX gold over London gold. The short - term trend of the US dollar is weak. The US stock index futures face the need for more data to verify the intensification of economic downward pressure, and there is a risk of correction at the current level. The bond market is in a favorable period in early August, but the upward rhythm is relatively tortuous. For various commodities, their prices are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, policies, and international situations [14][19][23][31]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US allows 401(k) investors to invest in alternative assets. Trump nominates a new Fed governor. China's gold reserves increased by 1.86 tons in July. Gold prices are trending upward, and there are arbitrage opportunities due to the widening regional price difference [12][13][14]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Miran is nominated as a Fed governor by Trump. The US dollar is expected to weaken in the short term [18][19]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Trump nominates Stephen Miran as a Fed governor. The risk in the job market has increased, and inflation expectations have risen in July. The possibility of a Fed rate cut within the year has increased in the short term, but the long - term independence of the Fed is affected. Attention should be paid to the risk of correction [21][22][23]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - China's import and export data in July exceeded expectations. It is recommended to allocate various stock indices evenly [25][27][28]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations. China's import and export data in July exceeded expectations. The sustainability of strong export growth is questionable. The bond market is in a favorable period in early August, but the upward rhythm is tortuous, and the timing of going long should be carefully grasped [29][30][31]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - China imported 1166.6 million tons of soybeans in July. ANEC expects Brazil to export 815 million tons of soybeans in August. US soybean exports were better than expected, and CBOT soybeans stopped falling and stabilized. The supply in China may tighten in the fourth quarter if no US soybeans are purchased. The operating center of soybean meal futures prices is expected to move up [33][35][37]. 2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - China imported 53.4 million tons of edible vegetable oil in July. The oil market is expected to maintain a strong - side oscillating trend. It is not recommended to enter the market today, and existing long positions can be held [39]. 2.3 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The excavator monthly operation rate in July was 56.7%. The inventory of five major steel products increased this week, suppressing the market. Steel prices are driven by policies, but it is difficult for spot prices to rise. It is recommended to be cautious about market rallies [40][41][42]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The operating rate of the corn starch industry increased, and inventory accumulated again. The supply - demand situation does not support the strengthening of the rice - flour price difference, and the regional price difference may be unfavorable to the 09 contract [44][45]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The northern port inventory is similar to that of the same period last year. The inventory of deep - processing enterprises decreased, and consumption slightly increased. It is recommended to hold new - crop short positions and pay attention to the weather [47][48][49]. 2.6 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The price of steam coal in the northern port market was strong on August 7. The coal price is expected to remain strong in the short term, but it is difficult to continue to rebound. Attention should be paid to the change in daily consumption in mid - August [49]. 2.7 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - China imported 10462.3 million tons of iron ore and its concentrates in July. The ore price is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short term [50][51]. 2.8 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - India's cotton planting area in the 25/26 season is 1058.7 million hectares. Vietnamese textile enterprises have weak restocking intentions. Textile and clothing exports declined in July. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to have limited room for further decline in the short term and may rebound [52][53][54]. 2.9 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The online auction price of coking coal in Jinzhong Lingshi market increased. The coking coal market has strong speculation sentiment due to policy and inspection factors, and the impact on the fundamentals depends on further policies [58][59]. 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Alumina) - A large - scale alumina enterprise in Guangxi postponed the maintenance of a roasting furnace to August 16. The alumina futures price is expected to be weakly oscillating, and it is recommended to wait and see [60][61]. 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Jingao's project is under pre - approval publicity. The spot transaction price has increased, and the polysilicon price is expected to operate between 45000 - 57000 yuan/ton in the short term. A strategy of selling out - of - the - money put options can be considered [62][63][64]. 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The social inventory of industrial silicon increased by 0.7 million tons. The supply may increase slightly in August, and the balance sheet may still show inventory reduction. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long at 8000 - 8500 yuan/ton [65][67]. 2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - China's copper import volume increased in July. A copper mine accident in Chile affected production. The macro - sentiment is favorable to copper prices in the short term, but inventory accumulation suppresses the market. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and pay attention to the internal - external reverse arbitrage strategy [68][70][71]. 2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - LME nickel inventory decreased by 240 tons on August 7. The nickel price is difficult to decline deeply in the short term. It is recommended to pay attention to short - term band opportunities and medium - term short - selling opportunities at high prices [73][74][75]. 2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Australia will invest in a lithium project. The demand is strong in August, and the supply risk remains. It is recommended to wait and see before the risk event is resolved and take profit on the 9 - 11 reverse arbitrage [76][77]. 2.16 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - Pan American Silver's lead concentrate production increased in the second quarter. The lead price has cost support at the bottom. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long at low prices and wait and see for arbitrage [78][79]. 2.17 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Pan American Silver's zinc concentrate production increased in the second quarter. The zinc price may continue to rise in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and pay attention to the medium - term positive arbitrage opportunity [80][81][82]. 2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - China's LPG weekly commodity volume increased slightly, and the inventory situation changed. The fundamentals are weak, and attention should be paid to the behavior of factory warehouses [83][84]. 2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emission) - The CEA price is oscillating. It is recommended to buy on dips cautiously for enterprises with quota demand [85][86]. 2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong decreased, and the inventory increased. The downward space of caustic soda is limited [87][88][89]. 2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp is stable. The pulp market is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short term [91]. 2.22 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC powder market is locally weak. The PVC price is expected to oscillate in the short term due to cost support from coal [92][93]. 2.23 Energy and Chemicals (PX) - PX supply may increase, and PTA is in a loss. PX may accumulate inventory in August - September, and the market is expected to oscillate in the short term [93][94]. 2.24 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - The operating rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has been adjusted locally. The downstream is still in the off - season, and the PTA market is expected to oscillate in the short term [95][96][97]. 2.25 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - A new styrene device of Jingbo has produced qualified products. The styrene market is expected to oscillate at the current price [99]. 2.26 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The inventory of soda ash manufacturers increased. In the medium term, a strategy of short - selling at high prices can be considered for soda ash [100]. 2.27 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The inventory of float glass manufacturers increased. The glass price is expected to oscillate. It is recommended to be cautious in single - side trading and focus on arbitrage [101][102]. 2.28 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - China's import and export data from January to July was released. The container freight rate is expected to be weakly oscillating, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of short - selling on rebounds [103][104].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Not explicitly stated, but the analysis implies a cautious outlook [2] - Fuel oil: ☆☆☆, indicates a relatively clear bearish trend with investment opportunities [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Not explicitly rated in terms of stars, but the analysis shows a lack of clear drivers [3] - Asphalt: Not explicitly stated, but low - inventory support and limited upside are mentioned [4] - Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG): ★☆☆, represents a slightly bearish bias with limited trading operability [1] Core Viewpoints - The oil market in the third - quarter peak season continued the inventory - building trend from the first half of the year, with crude oil inventory decreasing by 0.6% and refined oil inventory increasing by 1.7%. The supply - demand surplus pressure persists under OPEC+ production increase. Oil prices are under pressure in the short term but may be supported by geopolitical factors later [2] - The 18th round of EU sanctions on Russia has reduced the supply risk of high - sulfur resources, causing the FU to weaken. The LU follows crude oil with less volatility and under pressure [3] - The asphalt market opened weakly, with low inventory providing support but limited upside before real demand improvement [4] - The overseas LPG market decline has affected the domestic market. Although domestic chemical demand is strong in the short term, the market is mainly weak due to factors such as supply - demand imbalance and weakened crude oil support [5] Summaries by Commodity Crude Oil - In the third - quarter peak season, the oil market continued the inventory trend, with crude oil inventory down 0.6% and refined oil up 1.7%. The supply - demand surplus pressure exists under OPEC+ production increase [2] - In July, the crude oil market entered a shock - repair period. The factors supporting the market have weakened, and the recent negative risks are greater than the geopolitical positive ones. Oil prices are under pressure, but may be supported by geopolitical factors at the end of August and early September [2] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Today, LU closed slightly up, while FU was relatively flat. The 18th round of EU sanctions on Russia reduced the supply risk of high - sulfur resources, causing FU to weaken and its cracking spread to decline [3] - The Singapore diesel cracking spread has slightly declined from its high. The LU has no obvious fundamental drivers, follows crude oil, and has less volatility and cracking pressure [3] Asphalt - The asphalt market opened weakly, was supported around 3590 yuan/ton, and recovered some losses at the close [4] - The refinery production in August decreased significantly compared to July. The demand recovery was delayed due to rainfall. The inventory of 54 sample refineries decreased, and the overall commercial inventory declined. Low inventory supports the price, but the upside is limited [4] LPG - The overseas market decline has led to a weakening of the domestic market. Middle - East sales increase and North - American inventory build - up are suppressing the market. There is a possibility of further CP reduction at the end of the month [5] - Domestic PDH has quickly resumed production, with good short - term chemical demand. The refinery supply has slightly decreased. The domestic gas may stabilize under the situation of weak supply and demand. The spot market is loose, and the futures market is mainly weak [5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - term trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] - Fuel oil: ★★★, suggesting a clearer long - term trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ★★★, showing a clearer long - term trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] - Asphalt: ★★★, meaning a clearer long - term trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ★☆☆, representing a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price increase/decrease, but poor operability on the trading floor [1] Core Views - The geopolitical risk around the Iranian nuclear issue has heated up again, and the risk of trade war has weakened. The theme of loose supply - demand for crude oil continues, and the supply - demand guidance is still negative [2] - Oil prices led the rise of oil product futures, and fuel - related futures closed slightly higher. High - sulfur fuel oil has weak demand and a weakening crack spread, while low - sulfur fuel oil has limited supply pressure but lacks demand drivers and shows a volatile trend [3] - From January to July, the cumulative output of domestic refinery asphalt is expected to increase by 7% year - on - year, and the cumulative shipment volume has increased by 8%. The demand in South China is expected to increase further after "ending the plum rain season", and the third quarter is a key window for demand recovery. The price is expected to fluctuate [4] - The July CP has been significantly reduced, the international market supply is abundant, and the domestic supply is loose. The futures price shows a weakening and volatile trend [5] Summaries by Categories Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices rose, with the SC08 contract up 1.56%. The geopolitical risk around the Iranian nuclear issue has heated up again, and the risk of trade war has weakened [2] - The supply - demand theme of crude oil remains loose. Last week, the US EIA crude oil inventory increased by 3.845 million barrels more than expected, and the gasoline apparent demand was lower than expected. The global oil inventory accumulation trend cannot be reversed by the peak - season factor under the expected rapid production increase of OPEC+ [2] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Oil prices led the rise of oil product futures, and fuel - related futures closed slightly higher [3] - High - sulfur fuel oil has low demand for ship bunkering and deep - processing. The demand boost from power generation in the Middle East and North Africa in summer is discounted due to the high crack spread valuation. After the short - term boost of oil prices by good news, the crack spread of high - sulfur fuel oil has weakened [3] - Low - sulfur fuel oil has limited short - term supply pressure due to the solid - flow effect, but lacks demand drivers and shows a volatile trend [3] Asphalt - From January to July, the cumulative output of domestic refinery asphalt is expected to increase by 7% year - on - year, and the cumulative shipment volume of 54 sample refineries has increased by 8% year - on - year [4] - The demand in South China is expected to increase further after "ending the plum rain season" in early July. The third quarter is a key window for demand recovery [4] - The latest inventory data shows a slight inventory increase of 0.7 million tons, and the price is expected to fluctuate [4] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The July CP has been significantly reduced, the international market supply is abundant, and the US propane inventory is rising rapidly, putting pressure on international prices [5] - Affected by refinery operations, the external sales volume of domestic gas continued to increase last week, strengthening the loose domestic supply situation [5] - After the rapid disappearance of the premium from political risk and the driving force of crude oil, attention should be paid to the recovery rhythm of overseas exports, and the futures price shows a weakening and volatile trend [5]

Core Viewpoint - The recent volatility in international gold prices presents both opportunities and risks for investors, with a recommendation to consider long-term strategic investments in gold as a hedge against market uncertainties [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends - Since May, international gold prices have experienced significant fluctuations, with notable increases and decreases, including a peak of $3509.9 per ounce for COMEX gold and $3500.12 per ounce for London spot gold [1]. - The global trade war risks previously supported gold prices, but recent progress in US-China trade talks has led to a decrease in risk premiums and a decline in short-term safe-haven demand [1]. Group 2: Long-term Investment Perspective - Gold is influenced by various factors beyond trade risks, including the US dollar's performance, investor confidence in dollar assets, US government debt sustainability, inflation expectations, geopolitical risks, and central bank gold purchases [2]. - The World Gold Council encourages viewing gold as a strategic asset that can provide long-term returns, reduce portfolio volatility, and offer liquidity during market turmoil [2][3]. Group 3: Demand and Supply Dynamics - The World Gold Council's report indicates that global gold demand reached 1206 tons in Q1 2025, a slight increase of 1% year-on-year, marking the highest level for that period since 2016 [2]. - Strong investment demand, driven by central bank purchases and improved global gold ETF demand, is a key factor supporting overall gold demand [2]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - For individual and institutional investors, a recommended allocation of 5%-10% in gold can enhance the risk-return profile of a typical 60/40 stock-bond portfolio [3]. - The recent increase in gold price volatility suggests that investors should exercise caution in their investment strategies [3].

Group 1 - Precious metals experienced a decline followed by a rebound during the holiday period, influenced by unexpected U.S. non-farm employment data that alleviated economic concerns and lowered expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts [1] - Market sentiment shifted due to renewed tariff concerns after President Trump announced a 100% tariff on all foreign-made films, leading to a rebound in gold and silver prices [1][8] - The U.S. ISM services index unexpectedly rose to 51.6 in April, with the prices index reaching a two-year high, indicating improvements in employment and new orders [9] Group 2 - Long positions in precious metals are recommended to be held, with reference price ranges set for gold at 770-820 CNY per gram and silver at 8000-8400 CNY per kilogram [2] - The U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 177,000 in April, surpassing the expected 138,000, while the unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2% [9] - Average hourly wages in the U.S. rose by 3.8% year-on-year in April, although this was below expectations [9]

Energy - Russia's Ministry of Economic Development has revised its oil production forecast for 2025 down from 518.6 million tons to 516 million tons, while pipeline natural gas exports are expected to increase from 80.6 billion cubic meters in 2024 to 89.1 billion cubic meters by 2025 [1] - The European Commission is exploring legal avenues to allow companies to terminate contracts with Russia for natural gas without incurring fines, and is considering measures to prohibit EU companies from signing new contracts for Russian natural gas and LNG [1] - The U.S. Treasury has imposed sanctions on Iranian natural gas and shipping companies [2] - Saudi Arabia and India have reached an agreement on cooperation in the energy sector, including the supply of crude oil and liquefied petroleum gas [2] Precious Metals and Mining - Spot gold experienced significant volatility, briefly falling below the 3300 mark [1] - An accident at the Antamina copper mine in Peru, one of the largest copper mines globally, resulted in the death of the operations manager, leading to a complete shutdown for safety investigations [1] - JPMorgan forecasts that gold prices will average $3,675 per ounce by Q4 2025, with a potential to exceed $4,000 per ounce by Q2 2026 [1] - Chile's state copper company expert Eric Medel indicated that the upside potential for copper has been weakened, and prices may remain bearish in the short term due to trade war risks [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★ [1] - Fuel oil: ★★★ [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★★★ [1] - Asphalt: ★★★ [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ★★★ [1] Core Viewpoints - The cost support for oil prices remains effective, but due to risks such as trade wars and OPEC+ production increases, the space for a sharp rebound in oil prices is limited, and short-term prices may fluctuate within a range [2] - The futures of the fuel oil system showed a divergent trend today, with different factors affecting the cracking spreads of high-sulfur and low-sulfur fuel oils [3] - Today, asphalt prices rebounded following crude oil. The fundamentals of asphalt itself are affected by factors such as processing profits and refinery maintenance, and its price trend is influenced by crude oil in the short term [3] - The external market quotation of LPG has stabilized, and the domestic market has a cautious purchasing attitude. The futures price has certain support under a high premium to the spot price, and attention should be paid to the contraction of chemical demand after the reshaping of the trade flow [4] Summary by Category Crude Oil - EIA lowered the oil demand growth rate for this year and next year. The cost support for oil prices is still effective, but considering various risks, the short-term oil price may fluctuate within a range [2] Fuel Oil - The futures of the fuel oil system showed a divergent trend today, with FU rising more than LU. The cracking spread of FU is supported by the tight supply of heavy oil resources, while the cracking spread of LU is under downward pressure due to increased supply and a decline in the diesel cracking spread in Singapore [3] Asphalt - Today, BU rebounded following crude oil. The processing profit of diluted asphalt for refineries is poor, and the production enthusiasm is suppressed. The second-quarter operating rate of major refineries is restricted by maintenance. The short-term price trend of asphalt is influenced by crude oil [3] LPG - The external market quotation of LPG has stabilized, and the domestic market has a cautious purchasing attitude. The futures price has certain support under a high premium to the spot price. After the crude oil stabilizes, the driving force for the futures price to rebound is expected to increase [4]