证券研究报告·有色金属年度策略·工业金属 2）全球精炼铜需求2024年中国占比58%，美国占比6% 。2016-2024年，全球精炼铜消费量呈现稳健上升态势，CAGR为2%，2024年中国/美国消费精炼铜 1557/162万吨，yoy+1.3%/+0.5%，贡献全球总消费量58%/6%。2025年1-8月需求量增量主要贡献国家为中国、日本、德国等，墨西哥、芬兰需求量有所减 少。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 核心观点 1）2025年1-8月全球供需持续维持紧平衡态势，铜价整体高位运行或抑制需求。供需角度，根据ICSG数据来看，2025年1-8月精铜持续维持紧平衡态势，除 了需求淡季外，上半年铜价高位、矿端扰动增强推动冶炼加速生产，精铜供给较为饱满，2025年1-8月月均供给过剩0.8万吨。 2025年铜价高位运行，1-11月 铜价均价为9704美元/吨，yoy+6%。 我们判断2025年上游矿端供给短缺主要在矿端扰动、现货冶炼端加工费过低体现，并非下游需求真实产生显著短缺缺口，情绪角度反应高于基本面角度，2026 年铜价走势我们预计仍需重点关注上游矿山情况。 3）2025年中国需求稳健增长，分品类来看，精 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in gold and silver prices, highlighting the impact of various economic factors and market conditions on these precious metals [1][3]. Market Performance - COMEX gold futures increased by 0.43% to $4013.7 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures decreased by 0.52% to $47.91 per ounce [1]. Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates in October and indicated a halt in balance sheet reduction [3]. - Recent ADP employment data shows signs of improvement in the U.S. labor market [3]. - Progress in U.S.-China trade negotiations has led to a recovery in market risk appetite [3]. Global Demand for Gold - Global gold demand reached a record high in Q3, with central banks net purchasing a total of 220 tons, representing a 28% increase quarter-over-quarter [3]. Fiscal Outlook - The IMF forecasts that the expanding budget deficit will lead to an increasing debt burden ratio for the U.S. [3]. Tax Policy Changes - A new tax policy for investment gold has been introduced, changing the tax chain to "upstream tax refund, downstream full taxation" [3]. Industry Demand - Positive demand outlook in the electronics and photovoltaic sectors [3]. Market Outlook - The market is expected to experience fluctuations and adjustments, with upcoming attention on U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI and China's foreign exchange reserves [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the recovery of the real estate market is influenced by five key signals, primarily driven by the overall economy rather than the real estate sector itself [2] - The first signal is the economy emerging from a deflationary period, indicating that economic recovery is essential for the real estate market to rebound [2] - The second signal focuses on residents' income expectations, highlighting that demand issues stem from a lack of confidence in future employment and income rather than just financial constraints [4] Group 2 - The third signal emphasizes urbanization driven by employment, noting that true urbanization is a transformation of living conditions rather than merely expanding city boundaries [5] - The fourth signal discusses land becoming a scarce commodity, warning against artificial expansion of mega-cities and advocating for restrictions on land auctions to address oversupply in the real estate market [7] - The fifth signal pertains to restoring the financial attributes of real estate, which include mortgage financing, asset pricing, and wealth storage, as the decline in investment consumption has significantly impacted property sales [8] Group 3 - The sixth signal identifies the liquidity of the secondary housing market as a leading indicator of real estate trends, suggesting that revitalizing this market could shift expectations and improve the overall market outlook [10]

Group 1 - Silver prices have historically surpassed $50 per ounce, reaching $51 per ounce, marking a nearly 14-year high with a daily increase of over 4% [1] - Year-to-date, silver has shown a remarkable increase of over 70%, outperforming gold, which has risen by 50% [1] - The surge in silver prices is attributed to a dual driving force of "financial attributes + industrial demand" [1] Group 2 - The rising gold prices have positively influenced the entire precious metals sector, while the demand for silver in high-tech industries such as renewable energy, photovoltaics, and electric vehicles has seen explosive growth [1] - Silver serves as both a "safe-haven asset" and an "industrial metal," which contributes to its strong performance [1] - Factors such as expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, a weakening dollar, and geopolitical risks have collectively propelled silver prices [1] Group 3 - Citigroup has raised its silver price target to $55, indicating a bullish outlook [1] - Analysts suggest that while short-term fluctuations may occur, the long-term upward trend for silver remains solid, with potential to reach new highs by the end of the year [1] - Investment strategies recommend waiting for price corrections to enter positions at key support levels while managing risks effectively [1]

Core Viewpoint - Copper prices have surged significantly before the National Day holiday, reaching new highs, driven by macroeconomic policies, supply-demand fundamentals, and market sentiment. The outlook for copper prices post-holiday remains optimistic, although caution is advised regarding potential corrections [3][4][5]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The tight supply of copper is a major focus, with disruptions in major mines like Freeport-McMoRan's Grasberg mine in Indonesia exacerbating the situation. Despite some production increases due to high prices, actual output remains constrained [4][6]. - In September, the average price of 1 copper in China was 80,775 yuan/ton, a 2.11% increase from August, and a 7.99% increase year-on-year. On September 30, the price surged to 83,140 yuan/ton, marking a significant rise [5]. - Global copper mine supply has been impacted by incidents in Indonesia and production cuts in Chile, leading to a tightening of copper concentrate supply [6][7]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Analysts predict that copper prices will continue to show strength in the fourth quarter, with the Shanghai copper futures expected to trade between 79,000 and 85,000 yuan/ton. Factors supporting this include ongoing supply constraints and robust demand from sectors like electric grids and new energy vehicles [11]. - The financial attributes of copper have become more pronounced, with speculative buying increasing due to concerns over economic stagnation in the U.S. following interest rate cuts [7][8]. Impact on Industry Players - The rise in copper prices will have differentiated impacts on upstream and downstream companies. Companies with their own mining resources are likely to benefit the most, while those reliant on purchased raw materials may face margin pressures [9][10]. - Downstream companies are advised to utilize copper futures and options to hedge against rising costs, while upstream firms need to align their sales strategies with price movements to mitigate risks [12][13]. Investment Strategies - Investors are encouraged to look for buying opportunities after price corrections, while remaining vigilant about macroeconomic data and policy changes that could lead to volatility [12][13].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The notes primarily focus on the copper and precious metals industries, highlighting the current market dynamics and investment opportunities within these sectors [1][3][4][6][7][8]. Key Points and Arguments Copper Industry - **Production Decline**: September's electrolytic copper production is expected to decrease by 50,000 tons due to smelter maintenance and tight anode copper supply, a trend likely to persist until year-end [3][12]. - **Profitability Issues**: The overall profitability within the copper supply chain is poor, with smelters facing significant operational pressures despite local government efforts to maintain employment and GDP [3][4]. - **Policy Impact**: The introduction of Document 770, which retroactively manages local government subsidies, may disrupt recycled copper production, leading to a cautious industry outlook regarding policy implementation [1][3][12]. - **Supply and Demand Dynamics**: The copper market is experiencing upward resonance between its financial and industrial attributes, with expectations of tight supply continuing into the second half of the year. The anticipated Federal Reserve interest rate cuts are expected to enhance copper's financial appeal [1][4][6]. - **Price Projections**: Copper prices could potentially rise to $12,000 per ton, stimulating new capital expenditures [1][6]. Precious Metals - **Market Positioning**: Precious metals are typically viewed as defensive assets in a bull market, but current economic conditions, particularly stagflation, may present opportunities for performance [7]. - **Investment Recommendations**: Investors are encouraged to consider leading companies in the precious metals sector, such as Shandong Gold and Zhuye Group, which have attractive valuations and growth potential [7][8]. - **Gold Resource Scarcity**: Gold resource companies in the A-share market are noted for their scarcity, characterized by stable resource volumes and production capabilities, suggesting a potential for sustained growth [8]. Cobalt Industry - **Market Reactions**: Huayou Cobalt's recent convertible bond conversion is expected to impact its stock price in the short term but may provide a buying opportunity in the long run due to anticipated cobalt price increases driven by tight raw material supply and low downstream inventory [9][13]. Lithium Industry - **Policy Uncertainty**: Ongoing policy negotiations regarding Jiangxi lithium mines are expected to create uncertainty until the end of September, although lithium prices are unlikely to fall below previous lows [10]. Waste Copper Industry - **Taxation Changes**: Document 770 will standardize tax incentives in the waste copper sector, potentially increasing tax costs from 5%-6% to 8%-9%, which may lead to a contraction in waste copper supply and support copper prices [2][11][12]. Additional Important Insights - **Investment Strategy**: The current investment strategy emphasizes focusing on industrial metals, particularly copper, and the absolute return potential of precious metals following recent corrections [13]. - **Market Trends**: The notes indicate a broader trend of increasing financial attributes in physical assets, suggesting resilience in the face of market volatility [5]. This comprehensive summary encapsulates the key insights and projections from the conference call, providing a detailed overview of the current state and future outlook of the copper and precious metals industries.

Core Viewpoint - The copper market is experiencing a mixed fundamental outlook, with supply concerns heightened by a decrease in copper concentrate processing fees and a production cut forecast from Chile's Codelco, while demand expectations are improving marginally due to the upcoming peak season [1] Group 1: Supply Dynamics - Copper concentrate processing fees have fallen into negative territory, raising supply concerns [1] - Codelco, a major Chilean copper producer, has lowered its annual production forecast, exacerbating supply worries [1] Group 2: Demand Outlook - Social inventory has decreased over the past week, although the absolute level remains low, leading to improved demand expectations as the peak season approaches [1] - The upcoming "golden September and silver October" period is anticipated to drive marginal improvements in demand [1] Group 3: Market Sentiment - The collective inventory accumulation across LME, COMEX, and SHFE indicates weak terminal consumption during the off-season [1] - Increased uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut schedule has dampened market sentiment, limiting financial support for copper prices [1] Group 4: Overall Market Outlook - The copper market is characterized by a coexistence of tight supply and inventory accumulation, alongside fluctuating macroeconomic drivers, suggesting a short-term oscillation in price [1] - The market is awaiting validation of demand during the peak season and clearer policy signals [1]

Group 1 - The precious metals market is experiencing a strong upward trend, with spot gold prices reaching a one-month high of $3403 before retreating to around $3386.33 per ounce, while spot silver has increased by 1.0% to $38.55, marking a 14-year high [1] - Nearly 60% of the annual demand for silver comes from industrial uses, highlighting its importance beyond investment [1] - The weakening US dollar index and declining US Treasury yields have provided strong support for the precious metals market, driving significant price increases for both gold and silver [1] Group 2 - The EU is exploring countermeasures against US tariffs while prioritizing negotiations, and Indonesia's 19% tariff may take effect on August 1, creating uncertainty that boosts safe-haven demand for precious metals [2] - The political climate in the US, including calls for criminal charges against Federal Reserve officials and scrutiny of the Fed's operations, raises concerns about policy credibility and market volatility, enhancing the safe-haven appeal of precious metals [2] - US Treasury Secretary Yellen indicated that interest rate cuts should be considered if inflation data is low, which could influence market expectations regarding interest rates and provide financial support for precious metals [2] Group 3 - Technical analysis for spot gold indicates a bullish trend, with prices operating near the upper Bollinger Band and MACD indicators showing a bullish crossover, suggesting strong upward momentum [3] - Spot silver is poised to challenge its annual high of $39.12 after breaking through key resistance levels, with bullish momentum indicated by the RSI, although it remains below extreme levels [4]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the copper and aluminum industries, focusing on demand, pricing, and market dynamics. Copper Industry Insights - After the April tariff announcement, copper prices plummeted, but demand surged, leading to rapid inventory depletion. However, demand weakened in May and June as prices rebounded. Downstream purchasing willingness decreases above 78,000 RMB/ton, while strong replenishment occurs below this price point [1][6] - Chinese smelters are heavily utilizing scrap copper to produce cathode copper, resulting in a misleading apparent demand growth of over 2.5%. Actual demand growth may only be around 3% [1][5][7] - Despite high apparent demand, actual demand is weaker due to the inclusion of scrap copper in production. The copper-silver ratio has stabilized since November, indicating enhanced financial attributes of copper [2][10] - Global copper inventories are concentrated in the U.S., with COMEX inventories reaching historical highs. Tariffs have narrowed the price gap between the U.S. and China, impacting copper prices [1][9] - The copper market is currently facing potential production cuts due to falling sulfuric acid prices, which could alter the production landscape [1][8] Aluminum Industry Insights - The aluminum sector shows stronger real demand compared to copper, with both domestic and international demand growth exceeding 5% in Q1. Electrical investment has significantly boosted aluminum rod demand, with monthly production growth reaching 20% [3][4][13] - Despite the cancellation of export tax rebates, aluminum exports remain robust, with monthly volumes exceeding historical averages [14] - Domestic aluminum ingot inventories are at historical lows, raising concerns about potential short squeezes if inventories drop further [15] - The aluminum market is expected to maintain a tight supply-demand balance in the second half of the year, despite some weakness in specific sectors like photovoltaics [11][12] Market Dynamics and Risks - The apparent demand for copper is overstated due to statistical limitations and the reliance on scrap copper, which skews the actual demand figures [7] - The copper industry is facing challenges from high production costs and potential shifts in production strategies as sulfuric acid prices decline [8] - The aluminum industry is experiencing a slower expansion pace compared to previous years, reducing market pressure [19] - Future supply pressures in the aluminum sector may arise from new projects, but current assessments suggest that significant overcapacity is unlikely [20][21] Conclusion - Both the copper and aluminum industries are navigating complex market dynamics influenced by tariffs, production strategies, and demand fluctuations. The copper market faces potential risks from inventory management and production adjustments, while the aluminum sector benefits from strong demand driven by electrical investments and resilient export performance.

Group 1: Investment Ratings and General Market Outlook - No explicit report industry investment rating provided [1] - The core view is that various commodities show different trends based on factors such as national policies, trade negotiation results, and supply - demand fundamentals. Market sentiment has been affected by factors like China - US trade talks and inflation data [1] Group 2: Macro - Financial Sector - **Stock Index**: Since April, with the support of national policies and Central Huijin's funds, the stock index has recovered the technical gap formed by the tariff shock on April 2. The current risk - return ratio of chasing the rise is not high. Holders of long positions can consider reducing positions on rallies [1] - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term reminder of interest - rate risks suppresses the upward space [1] - **Gold**: Short - term market risk appetite has recovered, and the gold price may enter a consolidation phase, but the medium - to - long - term upward logic remains unchanged [1] - **Silver**: Overall, it follows gold, but an unexpected tariff result will benefit the commodity attribute of silver, so the short - term resilience of the silver price may be stronger than that of gold [1] Group 3: Non - Ferrous Metals Sector - **Copper**: The result of China - US trade negotiations exceeded expectations, and short - term market sentiment has improved. However, the copper price has significantly rebounded and may fluctuate [1] - **Aluminum and Alumina**: The aluminum electrolysis industry has no obvious contradictions. With the unexpected result of China - US trade negotiations, the aluminum price continues to rebound. Supply disturbances of bauxite and alumina have increased, and the supply - demand pattern of alumina has improved. The short - term price may further rebound [1] - **Zinc**: Although the macro sentiment has improved, the terminal demand has weakened significantly in the off - season, and with the inflow of imported goods, the zinc price remains weak [1] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: US inflation has cooled more than expected, and the result of China - US talks has exceeded market expectations. The export order expectation of terminals has improved, and market risk appetite is expected to recover. The Indonesian resource tax policy has been implemented, and the premium of nickel ore is high. There are rumors of a mining ban in the Philippines, but the implementation is difficult. The nickel price fluctuates in the short term, and there is still pressure from the surplus of primary nickel in the medium - to - long term. The short - term stainless steel futures fluctuate and rebound, but there is still supply pressure in the medium - to - long term [1] - **Tin**: With the unexpected result of China - US talks and improved macro sentiment, the tin price is expected to rebound. The resumption of production in Wa State needs to be continuously monitored [1] - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply is strong, demand is weak, it has entered the low - valuation range, demand has not improved, inventory pressure has not been relieved, and the China - US tariff negotiation result is unexpected [1] - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The number of registered warehouse receipts is extremely small, the first delivery is approaching, the futures price is at a discount to the spot price, and the willingness to register warehouse receipts is low, and the China - US tariff negotiation result is unexpected [1] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply has not further shrunk, the visible inventory has continued to accumulate, the downstream raw material inventory is at a high level, downstream still maintains rigid - demand purchases at low prices, and the China - US tariff negotiation result is unexpected [1] Group 4: Ferrous Metals Sector - **Steel Products (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil)**: The trade turmoil has intensified the pressure on the export chain. The short - term risk appetite is slightly poor, and the opening price dives downward [1] - **Iron Ore**: The tariff policy affects market sentiment, and the iron ore with strong financial attributes is under short - term pressure [1] - **Manganese Silicon**: There is still an expectation of decline under the expectation of manganese ore surplus, and the variety has heavy warehouse - receipt pressure [1] - **Silicon Iron**: The cost is dragged down by thermal coal, but the production reduction in the production area is large, and the supply - demand situation has become tight [1] - **Glass**: The situation of weak supply and demand continues. With the arrival of the rainy season, there are concerns about weakening demand, and the price continues to be weak [1] - **Soda Ash**: There are many overhauls in May, and the direct demand is okay, but there is medium - term supply surplus, and the price is under pressure [1] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The supply and demand of coking coal and coke are relatively surplus and are short - positioned in the sector. It is recommended that industrial customers actively seize the opportunities of cash - and - carry arbitrage and selling hedging when the market rebounds to a premium. Consider participating in the JM9 - 1 calendar spread arbitrage [1] Group 5: Agricultural Products Sector - **Palm Oil**: The rise in crude oil will drive the rebound of palm oil, and the China - US talks will drag down the soybean - palm oil price spread. It is recommended to short after the crude oil price falls [1] - **Soybean Oil**: China - US talks are expected to have a negative impact on soybean oil sentiment in the short term, dragging down the soybean - palm oil price spread. It is recommended to wait and see [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: The northern rapeseed - producing areas in Europe are still dry, which is not conducive to the formation of rapeseed yield per unit in the bolting stage. The China - Canada relationship is still uncertain. If Canada cancels the additional tariffs on China, it is expected to cause a large decline. Consider long - volatility strategies [1] - **Cotton**: In the short term, there are disturbances such as trade negotiations and weather premiums for US cotton. In the long term, macro uncertainties are still strong. The domestic cotton - spinning industry has entered the consumption off - season, and there are signs of inventory accumulation in downstream finished products. It is expected that the domestic cotton price will maintain a weak and fluctuating trend [1] - **Sugar**: According to the latest forecast of the Brazilian National Supply Company, Brazil's sugarcane production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 663.4 million tons, a 2% decline from the previous year. The sugar production is expected to reach a record 4.59 million tons, a 4% increase from the previous year. If the crude oil price continues to be weak, it may affect the sugar - making ratio in Brazil's new crushing season and lead to an unexpected increase in sugar production [1] - **Corn**: The overall situation of deep - processing in the Northeast has stabilized, the decline in Shandong's deep - processing has slowed down. The import corn auction policy and China - US economic and trade talks have a negative impact on sentiment. The market回调 in the short term. It is recommended to buy on dips and pay attention to the C07 - C01 calendar spread arbitrage [1] - **Soybean Meal**: There is no driving force for speculation in US soybean planting. The domestic market continues to digest the negative factors of spot pressure and Brazilian selling pressure, and the market is expected to fluctuate [1] - **Pulp**: After the positive impact of the unexpected China - US trade negotiation on pulp futures is realized, the fundamentals still lack upward momentum, and it is expected to fluctuate [1] - **Logs**: The arrival volume of logs remains high, the overall inventory is high, and the price of terminal products has declined. There is no short - term positive factor, and it is expected to fluctuate at a low level [1] - **Pigs**: With the continuous repair of the pig inventory, the slaughter weight continues to increase. The market expectation is obvious, the futures price is at a large discount to the spot price, and there are no bright spots in the downstream [1] Group 6: Energy and Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil - Related (Fuel Oil, Palm Oil)**: The result of China - US trade negotiations far exceeds market expectations, reducing concerns about weakening demand. After a sharp decline, there is a demand for rebound and repair [1] - **BR Rubber**: The result of China - US trade negotiations is unexpected. In the short term, the raw material cost support is strengthened due to rainfall in the production area. In the medium - to - long term, the fundamentals are loose, and demand is weak, and the price is expected to decline [1] - **PTA, Short - Fiber, and Related Products**: The upstream PX device is under intensive maintenance, and the internal - external price difference of PX has been significantly repaired. The demand for PTA is supported by the high load of polyester. The PTA shortage strengthens the cost support for short - fiber, and short - fiber performs strongly under the high basis [1] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Ethylene glycol devices are under maintenance, large - scale devices in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have reduced their loads, and coal - based devices have started to be overhauled [1] - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: The improvement of China - US tariff policies stimulates market speculative demand, the pure benzene price gradually strengthens, the profit of the reforming device declines, and the downstream demand for styrene is expected to pick up [1] - **Methanol**: The basis strengthens, the trading volume is average. In the short term, the methanol price fluctuates in a range and is slightly strong. In the medium - to - long term, the methanol spot market may change from strong to weak and fluctuate [1] - **PE, PP, PVC, and Caustic Soda**: For PE, the basis strengthens, and the trading volume is general. It fluctuates slightly strongly in the short term and may change from strong to weak in the medium - to - long term. For PP, some previously overhauled devices have resumed operation, demand is stable, and it fluctuates slightly strongly with macro - positive factors. For PVC, the fundamentals are weak, and it rebounds in the short term with macro - positive factors. For caustic soda, the spot demand is weak, and the driving force for price increase is insufficient, and the price fluctuates weakly [1]