Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector has seen significant gains, with the non-ferrous ETF FuGuo (159168) rising by 5.32% at one point, driven by macroeconomic uncertainties and supply chain restructuring concerns [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The non-ferrous metal sector experienced a substantial increase, with key stocks such as Xiyegongsi, Beifang Rare Earth, and Chihong Zinc & Germanium hitting the 10% daily limit [1] - Over 90% of the stocks in the sector showed an upward trend, indicating strong market sentiment [1] Group 2: Macroeconomic Factors - Ongoing tensions between the US and Iran, along with the US government's announcement of a 10% to 15% alternative tariff on global goods, have heightened market concerns regarding policy uncertainty and supply chain restructuring [1] - This macro environment has reinforced the safe-haven attributes of key minerals and the logic of stagflation trading [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - Research institutions predict that by 2026, the market will enter a second phase of a bull market characterized by profit-driven growth, supported by domestic demand expansion and anti-involution narratives [1] - The strong cyclical nature of non-ferrous metals is expected to manifest, with financial attributes and industry trends providing opportunities for revaluation [1] Group 4: Investment Opportunities - Investors looking to enter the non-ferrous metal sector may consider the non-ferrous ETF FuGuo (159168), which closely tracks the Industrial Non-Ferrous Index (H11059.CSI) [1] - The ETF selectively includes 30 listed companies involved in industrial metals such as copper, aluminum, rare earths, lead, zinc, tungsten, and molybdenum, focusing on growth dividends from industrial upgrades [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices fluctuated and declined, with the spot import of refined copper in China remaining at a loss. The potential return of Russia to the US dollar settlement system and the sharp drop in US stocks last night have re - raised concerns about market liquidity. The recent trend of copper prices is somewhat consistent with that of overseas financial markets and precious metals, indicating that the current operating logic still depends on financial attributes and market sentiment. Overall, it is regarded as a fluctuating and slightly bullish market. It is recommended to maintain the idea of buying on dips, but due to the upcoming Spring Festival and strong geopolitical disturbances in the overseas market during the holiday, it is advised to hold a light position during the holiday [1]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all fluctuated weakly. The price of alumina in the spot market declined, and the spot discount of aluminum ingots decreased. Affected by the rise in overseas alumina prices and the early raw material winter storage of domestic electrolytic aluminum plants, the alumina futures price rose against the trend. However, due to large inventory backlogs and the pressure of expiring warehouse receipts cancellation, the upward trend of alumina is difficult to continue. As the Spring Festival approaches, the demand from the processing end is weak, and the social inventory begins to accumulate rapidly. Currently, the market risk premium is being withdrawn, and the center and volatility of aluminum prices are decreasing. Be vigilant about the risk pricing related to the uncertain situation between the US and Iran [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight, LME nickel fell 4.51% to $17,250 per ton, and Shanghai nickel fell 3.74% to 135,070 yuan per ton. The LME inventory increased by 636 tons to 286,386 tons, and the SHFE warehouse receipts remained at 52,027 tons. The approved nickel ore production quota in Indonesia has shrunk significantly compared with the previous year. There are concerns about tight resource supply in the future, which pushes up the boundary cost support. In terms of demand, affected by the Spring Festival in February, the weekly inventory of stainless steel has increased, and the supply side has many maintenance plans. In the new energy sector, the spot procurement and sales of nickel sulfate are relatively sluggish, and the output of ternary materials is also expected to decline month - on - month. Although the phased demand has weakened month - on - month, the cost support is still solid. Pay attention to the opportunity of lightly testing long positions near the cost line. If the subsequent explicit inventory can be significantly reduced, it may have a positive feedback on the price. Be vigilant about the weakening of market sentiment and hold a light position during the holiday [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: Overnight price decline, influenced by geopolitical and market liquidity factors, overall bullish with a suggestion of buying on dips and light - position holiday holding [1]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight price decline, affected by supply - demand and inventory factors, with a weakening trend and risk concerns [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight price decline, inventory changes, supply - demand situation, cost support, and trading suggestions [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: On February 12, 2026, the price of flat - water copper was 102,030 yuan/ton, up 735 yuan from the previous day. The inventory in LME remained unchanged, while the SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 8,282 tons. The social inventory remained at 40.9 million tons. The active contract import loss decreased by 750 yuan [4]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River was 16,740 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. The warehouse receipts in SHFE increased by 6,501 tons, and the weekly inventory increased by 17,240 tons [4]. - **Aluminum**: The Wuxi quotation was 23,360 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan. The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased by 34,000 tons, and the inventory of alumina decreased by 4,000 tons [5]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel plate was 149,550 yuan/ton, up 2,250 yuan. The inventory of nickel in SHFE increased by 2,061 tons, and the social inventory increased by 2,784 tons [5]. - **Zinc**: The main settlement price was 24,590 yuan/ton, up 0.4%. The weekly inventory in SHFE increased by 793 tons, and the social inventory increased by 10,000 tons [7]. - **Tin**: The main settlement price was 393,120 yuan/ton, up 1.3%. The inventory in SHFE decreased by 1,718 tons [7]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [9][10][11][12][13]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the historical trends of the spread between the first and second - month contracts for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2021 - 2026 [15][16][18][19][20][21][22]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the historical trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [23][24][25][26][27][28]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [29][30][31][32][33][34]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts display the historical trends of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2026 [35][36][37][38][39][40]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts show the historical trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2026 [42][43][44][45][46][47]. 3.4 Team Introduction - **Zhan Dapeng**: A science master, the current director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior researcher in precious metals, and a gold intermediate investment analyst. He has over a decade of commodity research experience, serves many leading spot enterprises, and has published dozens of professional articles in public newspapers and magazines. His team has won the award for the best metal industry futures research team by Futures Daily and Securities Times for four consecutive sessions [49]. - **Wang Heng**: A master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, an analyst in non - ferrous metals at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on aluminum and silicon research. He has won relevant industry awards and provides in - depth research and services for clients [49]. - **Zhu Xi**: A master of science from the University of Warwick, UK, an analyst in non - ferrous metals at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on lithium and nickel research. She has won relevant industry awards and serves many leading enterprises in the new energy industry [50].

Core Insights - The commodity market is transitioning from a "broad increase" to "structural differentiation," with funds shifting towards undervalued sectors with solid fundamentals [1][3] - The historical divergence between "green metals" (copper, lithium, nickel) and traditional energy (crude oil, coal) has become a defining feature of the current market [3][4] - The current commodity cycle is characterized by a unique combination of financial and strategic attributes, driven by structural narratives rather than traditional economic growth [7][12] Market Dynamics - The supply-demand relationship for green metals is tight due to rigid supply and explosive demand, while traditional energy faces relaxed supply and slowing demand [3][4] - The global supply chain is shifting from "efficiency-first" globalization to "security-first" regionalization, impacting commodity pricing and availability [4][20] - Recent price movements, such as a 30% increase in LME copper prices in January 2026, reflect the new characteristics of the market [4] Historical Context - The current commodity cycle shows similarities to the 1970s, with a focus on the restructuring of the global monetary system and ongoing supply chain disruptions [11][12] - The previous commodity supercycle was driven by China's industrialization and urbanization, while the current cycle is influenced by AI infrastructure and green transitions [7][12] Investment Opportunities - Investors are advised to focus on the fundamental differences among commodities to identify structural opportunities [4][13] - Key commodities to watch include zinc, wheat, iron ore, and platinum, which are expected to perform well in the current market environment [15][24] - The chemical sector is anticipated to see growth due to domestic policy changes and supply optimization, with specific attention to products with strong export expectations [14] Future Outlook - The commodity market is expected to continue exhibiting significant differentiation, with traditional rotation patterns being disrupted [13][24] - The focus on strategic resources like gold, silver, copper, and tin is likely to lead to a scenario where these commodities experience upward price pressure while others may lag [24]

Core Viewpoint - The silver market experienced extreme volatility in early 2026, with prices soaring to a historical high of $121.65 per ounce before plummeting by over 36% in a single day, marking the largest daily drop in nearly 40 years. This volatility was driven by speculative trading and macroeconomic factors, particularly the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair, which shifted market sentiment dramatically [1][9][10]. Group 1: Price Movements and Market Dynamics - On January 29, silver prices reached $121.65 per ounce, reflecting a more than 67% increase within a month, but subsequently fell to $64 by February 6, nearly halving from the peak [1][2]. - The National Investment Silver LOF (161226) saw a net value drop of 31.5% on February 2, the largest single-day decline for a domestic public fund [1][11]. - The silver market's liquidity issues and high leverage contributed to a rapid price decline, as programmatic trading exacerbated the situation when investor sentiment shifted [1][10]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - Investment demand significantly reduced the available circulating silver, leading to a structural supply shortage that drove prices up sharply. Once investment funds withdrew, the market faced an oversupply, causing prices to crash [2][16]. - The silver market's supply is constrained by rigid short-term production capabilities and delayed recycling processes, which limits the elasticity of physical supply [2][16]. Group 3: Speculative Trading and Market Sentiment - The silver market was characterized by extreme speculative trading, with the silver-to-gold price ratio deviating significantly from historical norms, indicating overvaluation [3][10]. - Social media platforms played a crucial role in driving retail investor interest, with many new investors engaging in silver trading without fully understanding the associated risks [6][12]. Group 4: Historical Context and Future Outlook - The recent price collapse mirrors historical events, such as the 1980 silver crash, where speculative trading led to dramatic price corrections [3][10]. - Analysts suggest that the silver market may enter a phase of rebalancing, where industrial demand and strategic value will play a more significant role in price determination, moving away from speculative influences [21][22].

1. Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The factors affecting commodity prices are complex, with the core factors being financial and commodity attributes. The financial attributes include macro - liquidity, risk preference, and the role of the US dollar as a pricing "anchor". The commodity attributes involve supply - demand fundamentals, including both normal and abnormal influencing factors [2][3][7]. - Commodity prices do not rise and fall synchronously but follow a certain rotation order. Based on financial attributes, the mean - reversion of commodity ratios drives price rotation. Based on commodity attributes, economic cycle rotation and inventory cycles lead to the rotation of "precious metals - industrial metals - energy - agricultural products" [11][15][19]. - The current commodity pricing is influenced by the re - construction of the monetary "anchor", the abnormal supply - demand factors in commodity attributes, such as technological revolutions, industrial transformation, supply - chain re - construction under geopolitical influence, and strategic reserves. These factors have a more significant impact on prices compared to traditional supply - demand drivers [3]. - In the past two years, some commodities have shown strong performance, mainly led by precious metals and non - ferrous metals. The current commodity rally is mainly based on macro - narrative logic changes rather than traditional demand - driven cycles. If the economic cycle recovers more clearly, the traditional demand and cycle rotation will contribute more to commodity price increases [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Commodity Pricing Factors and Rotation Analysis Framework 3.1.1 Commodity Pricing Factors - Financial attributes: Conventional factors include macro - liquidity (e.g., monetary policy, interest rates, inflation expectations) and risk preference. At a higher level, the US dollar serves as the pricing "anchor" for commodities, and its "de - anchoring" can lead to significant price re - evaluation [2][7]. - Commodity attributes: Core drivers are based on supply and demand. Normal factors include supply - demand gaps, production costs, and inventory levels. Abnormal factors on the demand side include technological revolutions, industrial transformation, and national strategic reserves; on the supply side, they include policy regulation, wars, pandemics, export controls, and weather [3][8]. 3.1.2 Commodity Rotation Framework - Based on financial attributes, the mean - reversion of commodity ratios (price - ratio effect) promotes price diffusion and rotation. For example, when the price ratio of copper to gold or oil exceeds the historical average, it may trigger a mean - reversion [15]. - Based on commodity attributes, economic cycle rotation and inventory cycles lead to the rotation of "precious metals - industrial metals - energy - agricultural products". In the recession period, precious metals are favored for their hedging value; in the recovery period, industrial metals take the lead; in the over - heating period, energy performs strongly; and in the stagflation period, agricultural products make up for the late - stage increase [15][19]. 3.2 Two Rounds of Typical Commodity Cycle Trends Review - The first round was in the 1970s, during the depression of the fourth Kondratieff cycle. The breakdown of the Bretton Woods system and two oil crises led to a tripling of the CRB index. Gold led the rally, followed by oil, and then agricultural products [28][34]. - The second round was in the early 21st century, driven by China's rise. The CRB index also tripled. LME copper led the early stage, oil had a more significant increase in the later stage, and agricultural products had a late - stage rally [28][37]. - After the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis, commodities followed the economic cycle rotation. Precious metals led in early 2009, industrial metals rebounded in the second and third quarters of 2009, oil prices climbed as the economy recovered, and after 2011, oil and agricultural products remained stable while precious metals and non - ferrous metals declined [40]. 3.3 Current Fundamental Situation and Rotation Status - In recent years, the prices of precious metals and non - ferrous metals have risen significantly, leading to expectations of a new commodity super - cycle. In 2025, precious metals and non - ferrous metals led the rally, energy was at the bottom, and agricultural products had not yet started [42]. - The drivers include the decline of the US dollar's reserve status, the double - loose monetary and fiscal policies in the Kondratieff depression, the demand for upstream resources driven by the AI technological revolution, the deepening of geopolitical contradictions leading to increased strategic reserves, and the return of manufacturing. However, due to the uncertain economic recovery, the typical commodity diffusion and rotation based on the cycle have not yet occurred. If the traditional economic cycle rotation becomes more obvious, the commodity rally will spread to black metals, energy, and agricultural products [46][54].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - Near the holidays, the Asian market trading is light, and the platinum and palladium markets are oscillating within a narrow range, with volatility decreasing compared to the previous period [2]. - In the short - term, the trends of platinum and palladium may follow the rhythm of gold and silver. The core variables in the macro - aspect are the performance of US employment and inflation data. If the slowdown in employment and inflation is further verified, platinum and palladium may have a phased catch - up opportunity under the boost of financial attributes [2]. - In the long - term, the industrial logic of platinum and palladium still dominates the trading rhythm. The uncertainty of South Africa's power supply and Russia's exports, combined with the implementation of new automobile emission policies, make platinum more resilient than palladium. The differentiation in the supply - demand pattern may continue to drive the "platinum - strong, palladium - weak" market [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - Platinum's main contract closing price is 551.15 yuan/gram, up 10.35 yuan; palladium's main contract closing price is 439.10 yuan/gram, up 7.25 yuan [2]. - Platinum's main contract position is 10387.00 hands, down 277.00 hands; palladium's main contract position is 3179.00 hands, up 90.00 hands [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The Shanghai Gold Exchange's platinum spot price (Pt9995) is 545.38 yuan/gram, down 4.09 yuan; the Yangtze River's palladium spot average price is 414.00 yuan/gram, down 6.00 yuan [2]. - Platinum's main contract basis is - 5.77 yuan/gram, down 14.44 yuan; palladium's main contract basis is - 25.10 yuan/gram, down 13.25 yuan [2]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - Platinum's CFTC non - commercial long positions are 9966.00 contracts, down 243.00 contracts; palladium's CFTC non - commercial long positions are 3003.00 contracts, down 342.00 contracts [2]. - The total supply of platinum in 2025 is expected to be 220.40 tons, down 0.80 tons; the total supply of palladium in 2025 is expected to be 293.00 tons, down 5.00 tons [2]. - The total demand for platinum in 2025 is expected to be 261.60 tons, up 25.60 tons; the total demand for palladium in 2025 is expected to be 287.00 tons, down 27.00 tons [2]. 3.4 Macro Data - The US dollar index is 96.86, unchanged; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 1.84%, down 0.03% [2]. - The VIX volatility index is 17.79, up 0.43 [2]. 3.5 Industry News - US President Trump may send another aircraft carrier strike group to the Middle East if the negotiation with Iran fails [2]. - Fed officials have different views, but there is a strong consensus on the expectation of restarting interest rate cuts in the medium - term [2]. - US retail sales in December 2025 had zero growth month - on - month, weaker than the expected 0.4% increase, and core retail sales decreased by 0.1% month - on - month, against the expected 0.3% increase [2]. - COMEX gold's deliverable inventory decreased by more than 450,000 ounces, intensifying the shortage of deliverable resources [2]. 3.6 Key Attention - US January non - farm payroll data on February 11 at 21:30 [2]. - US January CPI data on February 13 at 21:30 [2]. 3.7 Price Range - London platinum has an upper resistance level of 2200 US dollars and a lower support level of 2000 US dollars; London palladium has an upper resistance level of 1800 US dollars and a lower support level of 1600 US dollars [2]. - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange's platinum 2606 contract may operate in the range of 460 - 600 yuan/gram, and the palladium 2606 contract may operate in the range of 400 - 460 yuan/gram [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Copper: Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices fluctuated weakly, with a continued loss in the spot import of refined copper in China. The Fed's policy will remain prudent, and the upcoming US non - farm payrolls data may be lower than expected. Downstream procurement has slowed, and social inventories are accumulating. The copper price is still mainly in a fluctuating and slightly bullish market, and it is recommended to maintain the idea of buying on dips, but with a light position during the Spring Festival [1]. - Aluminum: Overnight, alumina, aluminum, and aluminum alloy all fluctuated weakly. Due to the rise in overseas alumina prices and domestic electrolytic aluminum plants' early winter - stockpiling of raw materials, the alumina futures price rose against the trend, but the upward trend is difficult to sustain. With the approach of the Spring Festival, demand is weak, and social inventories are accelerating their accumulation [1]. - Nickel: Overnight, LME nickel rose 0.8% to $17,550 per ton, and SHFE nickel rose 1.88% to 136,500 yuan per ton. The approved nickel ore production quota has shrunk significantly. Although short - term demand has weakened, cost support is still strong. It is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of lightly testing long positions near the cost line, but also to the impact of market sentiment resonance [3]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Research Views - **Copper**: The Fed's policy is prudent, and the non - farm payrolls data may be lower than expected. Downstream demand is weak, and social inventories are increasing. The copper price is in a fluctuating and slightly bullish market, and it is recommended to buy on dips with a light position during the festival [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina, aluminum, and aluminum alloy prices fluctuated weakly. The alumina futures price rose due to external factors, but the uptrend is unsustainable. Demand is weak, and social inventories are piling up [1]. - **Nickel**: Nickel prices rose overnight. The production quota has decreased, and cost support is strong. Although short - term demand has weakened, there may be opportunities to test long positions near the cost line, while also considering market sentiment [3]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: On February 10, 2026, the price of flat - water copper was 101,715 yuan/ton, up 185 yuan from the previous day. The LME inventory remained unchanged, while the SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 8,811 tons. The social inventory remained at 40.9 million tons [5]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River was 16,660 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan. The SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 4,687 tons, and the inventory increased by 17,240 tons [5]. - **Aluminum**: The Wuxi quotation was 23,290 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan. The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased by 34,000 tons to 777,000 tons, while the alumina inventory decreased by 19,000 tons to 159,000 tons [6]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel plate was 143,900 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan. The SHFE nickel warehouse receipts increased by 318 tons, and the social inventory increased by 2,784 tons [6]. - **Zinc**: The main contract settlement price was 24,445 yuan/ton, down 0.6%. The social inventory increased by 9,800 tons to 128,100 tons [8]. - **Tin**: The main contract settlement price was 382,200 yuan/ton, up 3.4%. The SHFE inventory decreased by 1,718 tons [8]. 3. Chart Analysis - **3.1 Spot Premium**: There are charts showing the spot premiums of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [10][13]. - **3.2 SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: There are charts showing the near - far month spreads of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2021 - 2026 [16][21][23]. - **3.3 LME Inventory**: There are charts showing the LME inventories of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [24][26][28]. - **3.4 SHFE Inventory**: There are charts showing the SHFE inventories of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [30][32][34]. - **3.5 Social Inventory**: There are charts showing the social inventories of copper (including bonded areas), aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2026 [36][38][40]. - **3.6 Smelting Profit**: There are charts showing the copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2026 [43][45][47]. 4. Introduction of the Non - ferrous Metals Team - Zhan Dapeng, a master of science, is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior researcher of precious metals, and a gold intermediate investment analyst. He has over a decade of commodity research experience and his team has won the Best Metal Industry Futures Research Team Award for four consecutive terms [50]. - Wang Heng, a master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching aluminum and silicon [50]. - Zhu Xi, a master of science from the University of Warwick, UK, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on lithium and nickel [51].

Core Viewpoint - Investors may focus on investment opportunities in the non-ferrous mining and metals sector, driven by the financial attributes of non-ferrous metals in a rate-cutting environment and the benefits of precious metals from a declining US dollar index and de-dollarization demand [1] Group 1: Non-Ferrous Metals and Mining Sector - The demand for industrial metals, rare earths, and energy metals is influenced by significant supply-side disruptions and strong strategic reserve needs [1] - The energy transition, driven by advancements in AI, humanoid robots, and solid-state batteries, is expected to increase demand for copper, aluminum, and lithium, with lithium demand in energy storage surpassing that in electric vehicles [1] - The correlation of copper and aluminum with AI data centers is higher than with other metals, leading to a notable price increase since last year [1] Group 2: Precious Metals - There is a marked increase in investment demand for gold, with domestic central banks continuously increasing their gold reserves and emerging market central banks showing significant demand for gold reserves [1] - Both domestic and overseas investors believe that the future price of gold has upward potential [1] Group 3: Market Trends and Recommendations - The short-term price increase potential exists for metals like copper, aluminum, and gold, with lithium prices rising rapidly due to supply disruptions and increasing storage demand [2] - The rare earth sector is also expected to see price stability and potential increases due to strategic reserve needs and ongoing supply regulations [2] - The non-ferrous sector, including gold and silver, has already seen significant short-term gains, but there may still be room for growth throughout the year, suggesting a strategy of gradual investment [2] - The mining ETF (561330) is highlighted as a potential investment opportunity, having shown strong price elasticity over the past two to three years [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant volatility in gold and silver prices, with gold experiencing a sharp rise followed by a historic drop, and silver also showing substantial fluctuations [3][4][9]. - As of February 3, spot gold reached $4852.47 per ounce, marking a daily increase of 4.15%, while spot silver surged by 8% to $85.5 per ounce [1]. - The volatility of gold has reached over 44%, the highest since the 2008 financial crisis, indicating extreme market conditions [3]. Group 2 - The National Investment Silver LOF experienced a record drop of 31.5% on February 2, attributed to significant fluctuations in international silver prices [4]. - The adjustment in valuation methods for the National Investment Silver LOF led to a premium rate of 109.92% in the secondary market, raising concerns among investors [4][8]. - Analysts suggest that the current market dynamics for gold are driven more by financial attributes and speculative factors rather than fundamental changes, complicating predictions for future price movements [10]. Group 3 - Multiple institutions forecast that while short-term trading risks are present, the long-term outlook for gold remains positive, with expectations of a return to upward trends [9]. - The current gold bull market is characterized by a shift in narrative compared to previous cycles, focusing on the reconstruction of dollar credit and global order rather than liquidity changes [9]. - Analysts believe that the financial attributes of gold prices are now the primary drivers, making it challenging to predict market tops due to the lack of historical reference points [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper: Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices rose sharply and then quickly fell back. The LME copper price once increased by 10% during the session, and the import loss of domestic refined copper converged significantly, with the window close to opening. The sharp rise is the result of the profound transformation of the global macro - narrative, the historical inflection point of copper's supply - demand structure, and the resonance of financial market trading behavior. The current copper price logic should be viewed from the perspective of financial attributes, and the overall trend is considered to be an oscillating and bullish market. It is recommended to maintain the idea of buying on dips [1]. - Aluminum: Overnight, alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all trended weakly. The spot discount of aluminum ingots widened. Affected by factors such as environmental control in Henan, the tense situation between the US and Iran, and downstream pre - holiday stocking, the price is expected to be supported in the short term. Attention should be paid to the US - Iran situation and domestic inventory trends [1][2]. - Nickel: The LME nickel rose 0.43% overnight, while Shanghai nickel fell 1.34%. The inventory increased. From the fundamental perspective, as the price rises rapidly, the prices of products in each link of the industrial chain strengthen, but the increase in primary nickel production and the increase in domestic social explicit inventory may put pressure on the price. In the short term, it may oscillate widely at a high level. Attention should be paid to the opportunity to go long near the cost line and the actual implementation of policies [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: Overnight, copper prices had a sharp rise and then a quick fall. The LME copper once increased by 10%. The import loss of domestic refined copper converged, and the window was close to opening. Macro factors included the potential change of the Fed chairman and the possible government shutdown in the US, as well as the relaxation of real - estate regulatory requirements in China. The increase in LME, Comex, and SHFE copper inventories was recorded. The sharp rise was due to multiple factors, and the price should be viewed from the financial attribute perspective, with an oscillating and bullish trend. It is recommended to buy on dips [1]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy trended weakly. The spot discount of aluminum ingots widened. Affected by environmental control in Henan, the tense US - Iran situation, and downstream pre - holiday stocking, the price is expected to be supported in the short term. Attention should be paid to relevant situations [1][2]. - **Nickel**: The LME nickel rose 0.43% overnight, and Shanghai nickel fell 1.34%. The inventory increased. The Indonesian policy provides short - term support for the nickel price, but long - term potential quota supplements and high inventory are upward pressures. In the short term, it may oscillate widely at a high level. Attention should be paid to the opportunity to go long near the cost line and policy implementation [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: The price of flat - water copper increased by 2515 yuan/ton from January 28 to January 29, 2026. The LME inventory increased by 2150 tons, the Comex inventory increased by 3095 tons, and the SHFE inventory increased by 12422 tons. The import profit and loss of the active contract increased by 4426.1 yuan/ton [4]. - **Lead**: The price of lead remained stable. The LME inventory decreased by 1500 tons, and the SHFE inventory decreased by 7693 tons [4]. - **Aluminum**: The price of aluminum increased. The LME inventory decreased by 2250 tons, the SHFE inventory increased by 11174 tons, and the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased by 3.4 tons and that of alumina increased by 3.2 tons [5]. - **Nickel**: The price of nickel - related products changed. The LME inventory increased by 132 tons, the SHFE inventory increased by 2614 tons, and the social inventory increased by 2784 tons [5]. - **Zinc**: The主力结算价 increased by 1.8%. The LME inventory decreased by 625 tons, the SHFE inventory increased by 793 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 0.25 tons [7]. - **Tin**: The主力结算价 increased by 0.2%. The LME inventory increased by 35 tons, and the SHFE inventory increased by 171 tons [7]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium and Discount**: The report provides charts of the spot premium and discount of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin over the years [12]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts of the near - far month spread of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin are presented [13]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts of the LME inventory of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin over the years are provided [21]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts of the SHFE inventory of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin are shown [27]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts of the social inventory of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series are provided [33]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts of the copper concentrate index, copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit rate are presented [40]. 3.4 Team Introduction - **Exhibition Dapeng**: A science master, currently the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious - metal researcher, a gold intermediate investment analyst. He has more than a decade of commodity research experience, serves many leading spot enterprises, and has published dozens of professional articles in public newspapers and magazines. His team has won the Best Metal Industry Futures Research Team Award of Futures Daily & Securities Times for four consecutive sessions [47]. - **Wang Heng**: A master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, currently a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching aluminum and silicon. He has won relevant industry awards and provides in - depth research and policy interpretations [47]. - **Zhu Xi**: A master of science from the University of Warwick, UK, currently a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching lithium and nickel. He focuses on the integration of non - ferrous metals and new energy, and provides services and reports for new - energy industry leading enterprises [48].