今日盘间，有色金属板块大幅走高，有色ETF富国（159168）涨幅一度达到5.32%。 标的指数成分股中，锡业股份、北方稀土、驰宏锌锗均10CM涨停，盛和资源涨超9%，超九成个股上 涨。 美伊摩擦持续升级，叠加美国政府宣布对全球商品加征10%~15%替代性关税，市场对"政策不确定 性"和"供应链重构"的担忧显著升温，这一宏观环境强化了关键矿产的避险属性与滞胀交易逻辑。 研究机构认为，进入2026年，随着市场进入牛市第二阶段——盈利驱动上涨阶段，在"反内卷"和扩内需 驱动下，国内再通膨叙事强化，有色金属的强周期属性有望体现，而金融属性及产业趋势将为行业带来 重估机遇。 投资者若想布局有色金属板块，可以考虑关注有色ETF富国（159168），其紧密跟踪工业有色指数 （H11059.CSI），严格筛选30只业务涉及铜、铝、稀土、铅锌、钨钼等工业金属领域的上市公司，聚 焦"工业金属"，更有望受益于产业升级等趋势下的增长红利。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2026 年 2 月 13 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 种 | 点评 | | --- | --- | | | 隔夜内外铜价震荡回落，国内精炼铜现货进口维系亏损。宏观方面，昨晚华尔街见闻报 | | | 道，俄政府一份备忘录指出俄将重返美元结算体系，以得到特朗普政府更多支持。这一 | | | 潜在改变成为当下地缘政治可能出现重大转变的一个点。另外，昨晚美股大跌也引发了 | | 铜 | 市场流动性的重新担忧。铜价近期走势与海外金融市场和贵金属表现有一定趋同性，这 | | | 表明当前运行逻辑仍依赖于金融属性和市场情绪，整体仍以震荡偏多行情看待。策略上， | | | 建议维持逢低买入思路，但春节假期即将到来，节日期间外盘地缘扰动仍然较强，建议 | | | 轻仓过节。 | | | 隔夜氧化铝震荡偏弱，隔夜 AO2605 收于 2811 元/吨，跌幅 0.46%，持仓减仓 11147 手 | | | 至 28.6 万手。隔夜沪铝震荡偏弱，隔夜 AL2603 收于 23395 元/吨，跌幅 0.91%，持仓减 | | | 仓 881 手至 15.9 万手。铝合金震荡偏弱，隔夜主力 AD2604 ...

Core Insights - The commodity market is transitioning from a "broad increase" to "structural differentiation," with funds shifting towards undervalued sectors with solid fundamentals [1][3] - The historical divergence between "green metals" (copper, lithium, nickel) and traditional energy (crude oil, coal) has become a defining feature of the current market [3][4] - The current commodity cycle is characterized by a unique combination of financial and strategic attributes, driven by structural narratives rather than traditional economic growth [7][12] Market Dynamics - The supply-demand relationship for green metals is tight due to rigid supply and explosive demand, while traditional energy faces relaxed supply and slowing demand [3][4] - The global supply chain is shifting from "efficiency-first" globalization to "security-first" regionalization, impacting commodity pricing and availability [4][20] - Recent price movements, such as a 30% increase in LME copper prices in January 2026, reflect the new characteristics of the market [4] Historical Context - The current commodity cycle shows similarities to the 1970s, with a focus on the restructuring of the global monetary system and ongoing supply chain disruptions [11][12] - The previous commodity supercycle was driven by China's industrialization and urbanization, while the current cycle is influenced by AI infrastructure and green transitions [7][12] Investment Opportunities - Investors are advised to focus on the fundamental differences among commodities to identify structural opportunities [4][13] - Key commodities to watch include zinc, wheat, iron ore, and platinum, which are expected to perform well in the current market environment [15][24] - The chemical sector is anticipated to see growth due to domestic policy changes and supply optimization, with specific attention to products with strong export expectations [14] Future Outlook - The commodity market is expected to continue exhibiting significant differentiation, with traditional rotation patterns being disrupted [13][24] - The focus on strategic resources like gold, silver, copper, and tin is likely to lead to a scenario where these commodities experience upward price pressure while others may lag [24]

2026年初贵金属的"过山车"行情，成为全球金融市场最跌宕起伏的剧情，其中大幅波动的白银，无疑是这场风暴的主角。 白银狂欢在1月底戛然而止。1月29日，现货白银价格升至121.65美元/盎司，创下历史新高，不到一个月涨幅超过67%。转折接踵而至，1月30日白银价格 最高跌幅超36%，创下近40年最大单日跌幅。受此影响，国投白银LOF（161226）2月2日净值下跌31.5%，创下国内公募基金最大单日跌幅。 近日，白银价格仍在剧烈波动，一度从70美元升至90美元，2月5日再度大跌近20%，2月6日最低跌至64美元，距离1月底的高点几乎腰斩。截至发稿，现 货白银报价83美元/盎司，日涨幅超3%。国投白银LOF净值跟随市场震荡，场内价格经历五个跌停，目前溢价率仍超35%。更引人注目的是，大部分投资 者对国投瑞银的估值调整操作并不买单，小红书上掀起了一波"维权热"。 白银为何闪崩？美联储下一任主席人选凯文·沃什被认为是关键导火索。除此之外，价格不断创下新高的白银已然成为全球最拥挤的交易之一，宏观的风 吹草动在程序化交易与高杠杆资金的助推下，流动性紧张与多头平仓形成连锁反应，最终导致价格在短期内断崖式下跌。 "白银在本 ...

1. Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The factors affecting commodity prices are complex, with the core factors being financial and commodity attributes. The financial attributes include macro - liquidity, risk preference, and the role of the US dollar as a pricing "anchor". The commodity attributes involve supply - demand fundamentals, including both normal and abnormal influencing factors [2][3][7]. - Commodity prices do not rise and fall synchronously but follow a certain rotation order. Based on financial attributes, the mean - reversion of commodity ratios drives price rotation. Based on commodity attributes, economic cycle rotation and inventory cycles lead to the rotation of "precious metals - industrial metals - energy - agricultural products" [11][15][19]. - The current commodity pricing is influenced by the re - construction of the monetary "anchor", the abnormal supply - demand factors in commodity attributes, such as technological revolutions, industrial transformation, supply - chain re - construction under geopolitical influence, and strategic reserves. These factors have a more significant impact on prices compared to traditional supply - demand drivers [3]. - In the past two years, some commodities have shown strong performance, mainly led by precious metals and non - ferrous metals. The current commodity rally is mainly based on macro - narrative logic changes rather than traditional demand - driven cycles. If the economic cycle recovers more clearly, the traditional demand and cycle rotation will contribute more to commodity price increases [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Commodity Pricing Factors and Rotation Analysis Framework 3.1.1 Commodity Pricing Factors - Financial attributes: Conventional factors include macro - liquidity (e.g., monetary policy, interest rates, inflation expectations) and risk preference. At a higher level, the US dollar serves as the pricing "anchor" for commodities, and its "de - anchoring" can lead to significant price re - evaluation [2][7]. - Commodity attributes: Core drivers are based on supply and demand. Normal factors include supply - demand gaps, production costs, and inventory levels. Abnormal factors on the demand side include technological revolutions, industrial transformation, and national strategic reserves; on the supply side, they include policy regulation, wars, pandemics, export controls, and weather [3][8]. 3.1.2 Commodity Rotation Framework - Based on financial attributes, the mean - reversion of commodity ratios (price - ratio effect) promotes price diffusion and rotation. For example, when the price ratio of copper to gold or oil exceeds the historical average, it may trigger a mean - reversion [15]. - Based on commodity attributes, economic cycle rotation and inventory cycles lead to the rotation of "precious metals - industrial metals - energy - agricultural products". In the recession period, precious metals are favored for their hedging value; in the recovery period, industrial metals take the lead; in the over - heating period, energy performs strongly; and in the stagflation period, agricultural products make up for the late - stage increase [15][19]. 3.2 Two Rounds of Typical Commodity Cycle Trends Review - The first round was in the 1970s, during the depression of the fourth Kondratieff cycle. The breakdown of the Bretton Woods system and two oil crises led to a tripling of the CRB index. Gold led the rally, followed by oil, and then agricultural products [28][34]. - The second round was in the early 21st century, driven by China's rise. The CRB index also tripled. LME copper led the early stage, oil had a more significant increase in the later stage, and agricultural products had a late - stage rally [28][37]. - After the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis, commodities followed the economic cycle rotation. Precious metals led in early 2009, industrial metals rebounded in the second and third quarters of 2009, oil prices climbed as the economy recovered, and after 2011, oil and agricultural products remained stable while precious metals and non - ferrous metals declined [40]. 3.3 Current Fundamental Situation and Rotation Status - In recent years, the prices of precious metals and non - ferrous metals have risen significantly, leading to expectations of a new commodity super - cycle. In 2025, precious metals and non - ferrous metals led the rally, energy was at the bottom, and agricultural products had not yet started [42]. - The drivers include the decline of the US dollar's reserve status, the double - loose monetary and fiscal policies in the Kondratieff depression, the demand for upstream resources driven by the AI technological revolution, the deepening of geopolitical contradictions leading to increased strategic reserves, and the return of manufacturing. However, due to the uncertain economic recovery, the typical commodity diffusion and rotation based on the cycle have not yet occurred. If the traditional economic cycle rotation becomes more obvious, the commodity rally will spread to black metals, energy, and agricultural products [46][54].

铂钯金期货日报 2026/2/11 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 铂金主力合约收盘价（日，元/克） | 551.15 | 10.35↑ 钯金主力合约收盘价（日，元/克） | 439.10 | +7.25↑ | | | 主力合约持仓量:铂金(日,手) | 10387.00 | -277.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:钯金(日,手) | 3179.00 | +90.00↑ | | 现货市场 | 上金所铂金现货价（Pt9995） | 545.38 | -4.09↓ 长江钯金现货平均价 | 414.00 | -6.00↓ | | | 铂金主力合约基差(日,元/克) | -5.77 | -14.44↓ 钯金主力合约基差(日,元/克) | -25.10 | -13.25↓ | | 供需情况 | 铂金CFTC非商业多头持仓（周，张） 9966.00 | | -243.00↓ 钯金CFTC非商业多头持仓（周，张） | 3003.00 | -342.00↓ | | | 供应量:铂金:总计( ...

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2026 年 2 月 11 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 种 | 点评 | | --- | --- | | | 隔夜内外铜价震荡偏弱，国内精炼铜现货进口维系亏损。宏观方面，美国财长贝森特称， 即使沃什任美联储主席，缩表也不会快速推进，这表明在特朗普政府压力下，美联储政 | | | 策仍将保持审慎，优先维护金融稳定，而非过早收紧，其表态淡化了市场对沃什偏鹰派 | | 铜 | 的焦虑。另外，美国非农就业数据将于本周五公布，哈塞特暗示数据可能低于预期。需 | | | 求方面，下游陆续房间，采购节奏放缓，社会库存累库。铜价走势与海外金融市场和贵 | | | 金属表现有一定趋同性，这表明当前运行逻辑仍依赖于金融属性和市场情绪，整体仍以 | | | 震荡偏多行情看待。策略上，建议维持逢低买入思路，但春节假期即将到来，节日期间 | | | 外盘地缘扰动仍然较强，建议轻仓过节。 | | | 隔夜氧化铝震荡偏弱，隔夜 AO2605 收于 2806 元/吨，跌幅 1.54%，持仓增仓 1381 手至 | | | 32.3 万手。隔夜沪铝震荡调整，隔夜 AL2603 收于 23545 元/吨，持仓减仓 2 ...

总结来看，今年有色板块(包括黄金、白银)短期涨幅已十分显著，但在经历调整后，全年或仍有上涨空 间。短期来看，建议大家采取逢低布局或分批关注的方式，参与相关板块的投资机会。投资标的方面， 有色矿业指数的成分股数量相对较少，且聚焦于拥有矿产资源的有色行业上市公司，可能更易受益于金 属价格上涨。2025年，该矿业指数的涨幅在同类有色指数中排名第一，因此若大家在2026年重点关注有 色板块，可关注矿业ETF(561330)的投资机会。该ETF在过去两到三年间，涨跌弹性较强。 风险提示： 除此之外，黄金的投资需求增长尤为明显。今年以来，国内央行持续增持黄金，海外新兴市场国家央行 对黄金储备的需求增长也十分显著。因此，无论是海外投行还是国内投资者，均认为未来金价中枢仍有 上行空间。 铜、铝、黄金等金属均存在一定涨价可能性。锂的市场关注度同样较高，近期碳酸锂价格上涨较快。短 期来看，宜春等地出现了矿端供给扰动，部分矿山传出停产消息。今年在储能需求拉动逐步凸显、供给 端存在扰动的情况下，锂等能源金属也存在超预期涨价可能。稀土方面，战略储备需求同样显著，供给 端则持续有配额、管制等相关政策出台，因此稀土价格整体有望震荡偏强。 ...

2月3日，现货金银日内走高。截至9:30，现货黄金涨至4852.47美元/盎司，日内涨4.15%。 白银价格持续反弹。截至09:34，现货白银涨幅扩大至8%，报85.5美元/盎司；纽约期银日内涨超11%，现报85.60美元/盎司。 黄金开年一路飙升至历史新高，1月30日却骤然遭遇20世纪80年代以来最大跌幅。更糟糕的是，2月2日，现货黄金再次一度暴跌约10%，逼近4400美元/关 口。据智通财经，黄金三十日波动率已攀升至44%以上，创2008年金融危机以来最高。 历史罕见！国投白银LOF跌超31% 有人称"两天亏掉一个月利润" 受国际银价大幅波动影响，2月2日，复牌即被牢牢封死跌停板的国投白银LOF成为市场关注焦点。 同日晚间，国投白银LOF最新公告称，鉴于近期白银国际主要市场价格出现显著波动，与上期所白银期货差异较大，国投瑞银经与相关基金托管人协商一 致，决定参考白银期货国际主要市场的价格变动幅度，对基金资产进行合理重估。 受估值方式调整影响，国投白银LOF 2月2日单日净值跌幅达31.5%，创公募基金单日下跌历史纪录。同时，据此计算，目前二级市场价格溢价率达 109.92%。业内人士提醒，投资者不要盲目跟 ...

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2026 年 1 月 30 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 种 | | 点评 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 隔夜内外铜价冲高后快速回落，特别是 LME 铜盘中一度涨幅达到 10%，国内现货精炼 | | | | 铜进口亏损大幅收敛，窗口接近打开。宏观方面，美国总统特朗普表示，下周将宣布美 | | | | 联储主席人选，利率应比当前水平低两到三个百分点。美国联邦政府再次面临关门危险， | | | | 昨晚美参院关键投票未能推进拨款法案，但特朗普称接近达成协议避免政府关门。国内 | | | | 方面，有消息称，多家房地产企业已不再被监管部门要求每月上报"三道红线"相关数 | | | 据，有利于后续房地产市场平稳发展。库存方面，LME 库存增加 2150 吨至 176075 | 吨； | | 铜 | Comex 库存增加 2590 吨至 521757 吨；SHFE 铜仓单增加 3590 吨 151628 吨，BC | 铜维持 | | | 11141 | 吨。昨日内外铜价表现来看，突然的发力有贵金属热度的传导，也标志着铜价首 | | | 次突破每吨 1.4 | 万美元的 ...