镍价重拾金融属性，不宜过分看空 研究员：陈婧 FRM 期货从业证号：F03107034 投资咨询资格证号：Z0018401 目录 第一章 价差追踪与库存 4 第二章 基本面分析 8 GALAXY FUTURES 1 镍交易逻辑及策略 综合分析 交易逻辑及策略 GALAXY FUTURES 2 宏观方面：近期地缘政治紧张，可能刺激国防支出，利好军工需求；同时资源民族主义抬头，关键矿产的 战略属性提高。虽然有色板块因贵金属和铜回调出现普跌，但中长期趋势保持上涨。 产业方面：本周印尼松口配额将匹配冶炼需求，市场预期实际配额高于2.5亿吨的初始设定。高价刺激下， 硫酸镍转产电积镍可能会发生，新产能投产和爬产也会加速进行，12月已经看到电积镍产量大幅增长，重 返月产3万吨以上。同时因12月进口窗口打开，可能见到精炼镍净进口量增加，进一步提高国内供应，而 需求表现平淡。国内SMM统计的社会库存增3%，LME库存增10%，从供需层面看，市场实则处于供应过 剩、库存持续累积的状态。 期货层面：有色普涨前提下，建议不要过分依赖供需和成本等产业约束，需综合考虑宏观环境、资金流向、 市场情绪等多重维度。价格快速冲高后波动放大，建议 ...

有色金属板块全面飘红，安宁股份、锡业股份涨停，华友钴业、湖南白银、中国铝业、华锡有色、洛阳钼业、紫金矿业等跟涨。有色矿业ETF招商 （159690）涨4.33%，盘中成交超2900万元，近7个交易日获资金连续净流入3300万元。 中信建投观点认为，工业金属价格由"金融属性"及"商品属性"共同决定，从金融属性来看，美联储已开启降息周期；从商品属性来看，全球铜铝库存均处于 相对低位，中国经济复苏可期，叠加新能源行业的拉动，铜铝需求增长将有所好转。 有色矿业ETF招商（159690）紧密跟踪有色矿业指数，集中投资于拥有上游矿产资源的企业，包括北方稀土、紫金矿业、洛阳钼业、华友钴业、中国铝业、 山东黄金等拥有大量资源储量的公司。从历史表现看，有色矿业指数2025年全年涨幅达104.84%，同期有色金属行业指数涨幅94.73%，相比同类指数锐度更 高。 | | 近1年涨跌幅 | 近1年最大回撤 | | --- | --- | --- | | 有色矿业 | 99.45% | -13.76% | | 工业有色 | 91.17% | -13.43% | | 右色令屋 | 7607 CD | -13 31% | | 证券代码 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the non-ferrous metals industry, focusing on precious metals, industrial metals, strategic minor metals, and energy metals, with a particular emphasis on their performance in 2025 and outlook for 2026 [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments Precious Metals - **Gold**: Expected to perform strongly in 2025 due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and a weakening dollar. The bullish trend is anticipated to continue into 2026, driven by central bank purchases and concerns over dollar credibility [3][4][10]. - **Silver**: Exhibits both financial and industrial attributes, with significant upside potential as it transitions from reflecting solely financial attributes to incorporating industrial demand. Companies like Shanjin International and Shengda Resources are recommended for investment [5][11]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: Benefited from financial attributes and supply constraints over the past two years. Strong demand is expected to continue from both traditional and emerging sectors. A shift towards recovery in trading is anticipated in the second half of 2026, with high copper prices stimulating production resumption [6][14][15]. - **Aluminum**: The investment logic is based on its resource attributes and potential to replace copper in certain applications. A strong performance is expected in 2026, contingent on the pace of China's economic recovery [7][14][15]. Strategic Minor Metals - **Rare Earths and Tungsten**: Supply constraints due to strict Chinese controls are expected to drive prices up. The geopolitical landscape, particularly the US-China dynamics, will significantly influence the market [3][8][13]. Lithium Carbonate - The market outlook is driven by demand from electric vehicles and energy storage. Despite some challenges in new supply due to policy restrictions, the demand remains robust, suggesting a favorable trading environment [9]. Additional Important Insights - The overall performance of the non-ferrous metals sector in 2025 is expected to be strong, driven by economic recession pressures and supply constraints. The focus will gradually shift towards demand in 2026 as economic recovery progresses [2]. - The strategic positioning of companies in the precious metals sector, particularly those with low valuations, is highlighted as a potential investment opportunity [4][10]. - The anticipated tightening of supply in the copper market due to unexpected disruptions in major mines is noted, which could lead to a significant price increase in 2026 [15]. - The importance of geopolitical factors and policy changes in shaping the supply dynamics of strategic minor metals is emphasized, particularly in the context of global trade tensions [8][13].

Core Viewpoint - The company Guizhou Moutai has launched a significant initiative by making its 53-degree 500ml Flying Moutai available for purchase on the "i Moutai" app starting January 1, 2026, with a daily purchase limit of 12 bottles per person, aiming to regain market pricing power and reduce speculation [1][4]. Group 1: Pricing Strategy - The price for the 2026 Flying Moutai is set at 1499 yuan per bottle, while prices for previous years range from 1909 yuan to 2649 yuan [1]. - Moutai management has expressed intentions to stabilize prices and prevent speculation by adjusting supply on the i Moutai platform based on market demand [4][5]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Historically, there has been a significant discrepancy between Moutai's official pricing and actual market prices, sometimes exceeding a 100% difference due to speculation by distributors [2]. - The introduction of the i Moutai app is seen as a move towards market-oriented marketing, allowing consumers easier access to genuine Moutai products [4]. Group 3: Financial Implications - The financial attributes of Moutai have contributed to its popularity, but there are concerns that this may lead to market volatility as the company shifts focus back to consumer goods [5]. - The stock price of Guizhou Moutai has shown slight declines, indicating market apprehension regarding the potential detachment from its financial attributes and the impact on long-term performance [5].

今日周五(12月26日)亚盘时段，伦敦银目前交投于74.31一线上方，今日开盘于71.94美元/盎司，截至发 稿，伦敦银暂报74.80美元/盎司，上涨3.97%，最高触及75.13美元/盎司，最低下探71.94美元/盎司，目 前来看，伦敦银盘内短线偏向震荡走势。 据世界白银协会统计，2024年全球白银消费结构中，工业需求占比59%，珠宝首饰占18%，银币银条占 16%。工业领域中光伏需求为197.6百万盎司，占总需求约17%。光伏银浆是光伏电池的关键辅料，且当 下主流TOPCon电池单GW耗银量高于PERC电池。 另外，白银对于光伏产业而言，绝非普通原材料。它是构成光伏电池银浆的核心要素，直接关系到光电 转换效率与组件长期可靠性。当前主流PERC电池每片需消耗约80毫克白银，而更具潜力的N型TOPCon 电池用量则高达130毫克。 【最新伦敦银行情解析】 短期来看，年末至年初需警惕回调风险，重点关注65.88美元附近的关键阻力汇合区域——这个区间大 概率会成为行情拐点，可能出现涨势衰竭或短期回调。若白银能维持上行趋势，回调幅度理应受限在 51.86美元，且需实现"收盘突破上轨平行通道"，才能确认开启下一轮主升 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the industry. Core Viewpoints - The non - ferrous metals sector is strong but volatile. The overall direction of monetary easing and ongoing contradictions in the mining end continue to support non - ferrous metals. However, due to factors such as capital outflows during Christmas, the sector experiences a round of strong consolidation. There are differences in fundamentals among non - ferrous metals, leading to a differentiation in strength. It is recommended to focus on opportunities where macro and micro factors resonate [12]. - Copper prices are expected to have an upward - moving central value in the future, driven by its financial attributes, valuation repair, and the global inventory structural contradiction. It is advisable to gradually go long on Shanghai Copper on dips [3]. - Zinc is in an oscillatory state. As long as the lower support level holds, one can go long on dips [4]. - For the aluminum industry chain, it is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see or long - biased approach. For alumina, a high - selling strategy is suggested [5]. - Tin is recommended to be on the sidelines, and attention should be paid to the trends of other non - ferrous metals and policy regulations [6]. - Lead shows a short - term upward trend, and one can go long on dips [8]. - Nickel and stainless steel are in a short - term bullish state, but attention should be paid to macro - liquidity changes and the implementation of Indonesian policies [9]. Summary by Section Part 1: Non - ferrous Metals Operating Logic and Investment Recommendations - **Macro Logic**: The non - ferrous metals sector is strong but volatile. Monetary easing continues, and contradictions in the mining end support the sector. Japan's intervention in the foreign exchange market weakens the US dollar, which is beneficial for non - ferrous metals. However, the appreciation of the RMB may lead to relatively stronger performance in the external market. During Christmas, capital outflows increase volatility, and non - ferrous metals experience a round of strong consolidation. The US economic data shows mixed performance, and China's economic data such as power consumption is positive. The non - ferrous metals sector has adjusted but moved away from lows, with internal differentiation in strength. Copper, with its tight supply - demand situation, drives the sector upward. As weak - performing varieties make up for losses, the sector may experience profit - taking and increased volatility. Attention should be paid to spot - market feedback [12]. - **This Week's Focus**: This week, the US will release a large amount of economic data, with the focus on the third - quarter real GDP on December 23. China will release the November industrial enterprise profit data on December 27. The Christmas holiday leads to market closures in the UK and the US [13]. - **Non - ferrous Metals Strategy** - **Copper**: Driven by factors such as the high - than - expected US GDP and inflation, and the global inventory structural contradiction, copper prices are expected to rise. It is advisable to go long on dips, with a short - term upper pressure range of 97,000 - 98,000 yuan/ton and a lower support range of 92,000 - 93,000 yuan/ton. Options strategies can consider buying near - month slightly out - of - the - money call options [3]. - **Zinc**: With a relatively warm macro environment and a slowdown in the decline of processing fees, zinc is in an oscillatory recovery state. It can be bought on dips as long as the support level holds, with an upper pressure range of 23,500 - 23,600 yuan/ton and a lower support range of 22,800 - 23,000 yuan/ton [4]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: For electrolytic aluminum, it is recommended to wait and see or go long on dips, with an upper pressure range of 23,000 - 24,000 yuan/ton and a lower support range of 21,000 - 21,300 yuan/ton. For alumina, a high - selling strategy is recommended, with an upper pressure range of 2,800 - 3,000 yuan/ton and a lower support range of 2,000 - 2,200 yuan/ton. For recycled aluminum alloy, a wait - and - see or long - biased approach is suggested, with an upper pressure range of 21,500 - 21,800 yuan/ton and a lower support range of 20,000 - 20,400 yuan/ton [5]. - **Tin**: Affected by sector adjustment, policy利空, and nickel market resonance, it is recommended to wait and see, with an upper pressure range of 350,000 - 355,000 yuan/ton and a lower support range of 310,000 - 320,000 yuan/ton. Options strategies can consider buying out - of - the - money put options for protection [6][7]. - **Lead**: With a weak US dollar and cost support, lead prices are rising. It is advisable to go long in the short term, with a lower support range of 16,700 - 16,800 yuan/ton and an upper pressure range of 17,200 - 17,300 yuan/ton [8]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Affected by the expected reduction of Indonesian nickel ore quotas and potential policy changes, nickel and stainless steel are short - term bullish. For nickel, the upper pressure range is 128,000 - 130,000 yuan/ton, and the lower support range is 123,000 - 124,000 yuan/ton. For stainless steel, the upper pressure range is 13,000 - 13,200 yuan/ton, and the lower support range is 12,500 - 12,600 yuan/ton [9]. Part 2: Non - ferrous Metals Market Review - The report provides the closing prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals futures, including copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, tin, lead, nickel, stainless steel, and cast aluminum alloy [17]. Part 3: Non - ferrous Metals Position Analysis - The report presents the latest position analysis of the non - ferrous metals sector, including the price changes, net long - short strength comparison, net long - short position base values, changes in net long and short positions, and influencing factors of various varieties such as polysilicon, silver, lead, copper, lithium carbonate, aluminum alloy, aluminum, industrial silicon, gold, zinc, alumina, tin, and nickel [19]. Part 4: Non - ferrous Metals Spot Market - The report shows the spot prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals, including copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, nickel, stainless steel, tin, lead, and cast aluminum alloy [20][22]. Part 5: Non - ferrous Metals Industry Chain - The report provides relevant charts for each non - ferrous metal in the industry chain, including inventory changes, processing fees, price trends, and other aspects of copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, tin, cast aluminum alloy, lead, nickel, and stainless steel [25][28][30] Part 6: Non - ferrous Metals Arbitrage - The report provides relevant charts for non - ferrous metals arbitrage, including the Shanghai - London ratio changes, basis spreads, and other aspects of copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, tin, lead, nickel, and stainless steel [56][57][59] Part 7: Non - ferrous Metals Options - The report provides relevant charts for non - ferrous metals options, including historical volatility, weighted implied volatility, trading volume, open interest, and other aspects of copper, zinc, and aluminum [74][76][79]

12月24日早盘，国际黄金现货价格上涨首度突破4500美元/盎司，再创新高，随后一度跳水下跌，截至 发稿，报4492.59美元/盎司。 责编：梁秋燕 国联期货分析认为，2026年贵金属牛市将持续进阶，核心由"金融属性+工业需求"双引擎驱动且品种分 化显著：黄金依托全球宽财政周期下的债务与货币信用担忧、美联储"前稳后快"的降息周期、央行购金 的长期结构性支撑及仍存增量空间的投资需求，维持震荡上行态势，成为对冲全球财政与货币体系不确 定性的"压舱石"。 校对：杨舒欣 该机构分析称，黄金已处于前所未有的高位区间，结合2026年美国中期选举"钟摆效应"将约束地缘与贸 易波动强度，削弱黄金计价避险动能，预计2026年黄金价格难以重现2025年的爆发式增长，但黄金仍具 有较强的抗跌性与中长期配置价值，2026年黄金高点有可能在5000美元/盎司左右。 ...

12月22日，A股有色金属板块午后持续走强，白银有色涨停，中钨高新涨超9%，云南锗业、湖南白银、西部黄 金、紫金矿业、中金黄金、赤峰黄金跟涨。矿业ETF（159690）涨2.73%。 中信建投认为，工业金属价格由"金融属性"及"商品属性"共同决定，从金融属性来看，美联储已开启降息周期； 从商品属性来看，全球铜、铝库存均处于相对低位，中国经济复苏可期，叠加新能源行业的拉动，铜铝需求增长 将有所好转。 矿业ETF（159690）跟踪的中证有色金属矿业指数覆盖工业金属、贵金属、能源金属、小金属等细分行业，一篮 子配置特性能够有效分散单一品种的价格波动风险。此外，招商基金表示，在能源转型（电动车、光伏）、AI算 力建设、全球宽松政策的共同推动下，资源需求具备长期支撑，或有助于布局"资源新周期"。 （文章来源：21世纪经济报道） 申万宏源解读指出，近期金价强势主要系12月降息落地、失业率高于预期+CPI低于预期致1月降息预期升温、日 本央行加息靴子落地，长期看货币信用格局重塑持续，大而美法案通过后美国财政赤字率将提升，当前我国黄金 储备偏低，央行购金为长期趋势，金价中枢将持续上行。 除了贵金属持续强势，工业金属价格同样 ...

一、本周国内现货镍价走势 ▲CCMN现货镍本周走势图 影响本周镍价走势复盘：长江现货市场1#镍价呈现"强势单边拉涨、创出周内新高"的走势，价格轨 迹："V 型反转" 演绎年末惊喜 本周长江现货1#镍价走势是宏观情绪主导下，金融属性与商品属性形成短期共振的结果。价格自周一的 117,700元/吨（均价）连续下探，于周三触及周内低点115,500元/吨（均价），这主要反映了周初市场对 美联储"鹰派"立场（紧缩担忧）和美国经济数据疲软（增长放缓）的定价。转折点发生在周中，美国11 月核心CPI显著降温，市场交易主线迅速切换为"通胀受控→提前交易降息预期"，全球风险偏好回暖， 美元走弱。在此氛围下，镍价获得双重动力：一是美元走弱提振其金融吸引力；二是市场对"软着陆"下 未来工业需求改善的预期升温。同时，印尼计划2026年大幅减产的消息作为重要的供应端催化剂，强化 了市场对中长期供应收紧的预期，进一步点燃了看涨情绪。最终，价格在周四周五强势拉涨，于周五收 于120,450元/吨（均价），全周呈现明显的V型反转。本周长江现货市场1#镍总均价报117120元/吨，较 前一周下跌340元，这显示当前镍价对全球流动性预期与产业 ...

放眼全年，现货白银、铂金、钯金今年累计涨幅分别达到128%、112%、80%，走出了一轮波澜壮阔的 牛市行情。 业内人士指出，在宏观宽松预期升温、现货供应持续偏紧、资金情绪共振等多重因素推动下，贵金属市 场的上涨逻辑正在不断强化。其中，白银被认为正经历一轮典型的"逼空式"行情，而铂、钯则在供应缺 口与工业需求支撑下迎来价值重估。 美东时间17日，道指和标普500指数四连阴。地缘政治紧张局势升级，引发避险需求升温，推动黄金、 白银、铜、铂金、钯金等贵金属全线走高。铂金连续第五个交易日上涨，触及2011年以来的最高水平。 钯金也继续上涨。受此影响，全球最大白银ETF--iShares Silver Trust跃升3%，创下历史新高。 01 宏观共振：美元示弱与"鸽派"预期 铂金、钯金行情的爆发并非孤立事件，而是贵金属板块在宏观环境转暖下的整体市场风险收益体现。 宏观方面，市场正在积极交易美联储的政策转向，11月非农就业数据低于市场预期，市场降息预期走 强，铂钯作为贵金属一族，总体存在较强的宏观属性，在总体风险偏好走强、以金银为代表的贵金属价 格大涨的背景下，宏观强力推动铂钯呈现阶段性走强。 另一方面，针对下任美联 ...