Economic Overview - The U.S. employment data for July fell short of market expectations, leading to increased concerns about the economic outlook and a surge in expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September [1][4] - The unemployment rate rose by 0.1 percentage points to 4.2% in July, with significant downward revisions to previously reported job growth for May and June, indicating a cooling labor market [4][5] Stock Market Reaction - All three major U.S. stock indices closed down on August 1, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling by 1.23%, the S&P 500 down by 1.6%, and the Nasdaq down by 2.24% [2][4] - Amazon's stock plummeted over 8% due to concerns regarding its cloud computing business's slower-than-expected profit growth [2][4] Market Sentiment - The CBOE Volatility Index, a measure of market fear, rose to 20.41 points, reflecting heightened risk aversion among investors [2][4] - Precious metal prices surged as investors sought safe-haven assets, with gold prices increasing by 2.22% and silver prices rising by 0.84% [3] Federal Reserve Expectations - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September jumped from 37.7% to 75.5% following the disappointing employment data [4][5] Political Developments - President Trump announced the dismissal of the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Erica McEntyre, citing dissatisfaction with the employment data, which he accused of being manipulated for political purposes [5][6] - Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler announced her resignation effective August 8, allowing President Trump to make new appointments to the Federal Reserve Board ahead of schedule [7]

| | | | 第一部分 | 前言概要 2 | | --- | --- | | | 2 | | | 2 | | | 2 | | 第二部分 | 行情复盘与前瞻 3 | | | 3 | | | 4 | | 第三部分 | 宏观面因素 5 | | | 5 | | | 6 | | 第四部分 | 基本面因素 8 | | | 8 | | | 8 | | | 9 | | | 9 | | | 10 | | | 10 | | | 11 | | 第五部分 | 后市展望及策略推荐 12 | | | 免责声明 13 | 有色板块研发报告 贵金属 8 月报 2025 年 7 月 31 日 弱预期遭遇强现实 贵金属价格高位震荡 第一部分 前言概要 银河期货 第 2 页 共 13 页 有色板块研发报告 贵金属 8 月报 2025 年 7 月 31 日 第二部分 行情复盘与前瞻 图表 3：沪金盘面走势 单位：元/克 图表 4：沪银盘面走势 单位：元/千克 第 3 页 共 13 页 贵金属 8 月报 2025 年 7 月 31 日 图表 1：伦敦金盘面走势 单位：美元/盎司 图表 2：伦敦银盘面走势 单位：美元/盎司 有色板块研发报告 第 4 ...

华盛顿正上演着惊心动魄的财政博弈。特朗普政府正在全力推动一项涉及数万亿美元的全面减税法案， 但共和党内部出现严重分歧。知情人士透露，至少有5名资深共和党议员公开反对当前版本的法案，他 们担心大规模减税将加剧财政赤字。这场政治角力导致市场担忧，若法案流产可能引发政府停摆危机， 促使大量资金涌入黄金市场避险。 周三（5月21日）亚欧时段，国际金价延续周二的强势上涨行情，截至发稿金价报3310.61美元/盎司， 涨幅0.63%。这场黄金盛宴的背后，是美元指数暴跌至99.42的两周低位，以及美国财政政策不确定性引 发的市场恐慌情绪蔓延。在全球资本市场的惊涛骇浪中，黄金再度展现出"乱世避风港"的独特魅力。 【要闻速递】 美元疲软直接降低了以美元计价的黄金持有成本，刺激了欧洲、亚洲投资者的购买热情。外汇分析师指 出，这轮美元下跌源于穆迪下调美国评级和国际贸易局势担忧等因素。高盛分析师在一份研究报告中写 道："关税税率现在降低了，但并不低，美国的经济衰退风险也是如此。"交易员们还担心，美国官员可 能会在加拿大举行的七国集团(G7)财长会议上施压让美元贬值。 【黄金行情分析】 黄金开盘在3290一线开启反弹，昨晚黄金突破了箱 ...