*三大指数集体重挫 *大型科技股与中概股普遍承压 *美债收益率下行至一个多月低点 美国股市周五大幅下跌，投资者对地缘政治摩擦及贸易政策不确定性担忧重燃，科技板块领跌，市场避 险情绪急剧升温，衡量市场恐慌情绪的CBOE波动率指数（VIX）升至6月中旬以来最高水平。 经济数据方面，密歇根大学公布的10月消费者信心初值显示，信心指数仍徘徊在历史低位，通胀与就业 前景不振持续压制消费意愿。 多位美联储官员在讲话中表示，货币政策未来调整需保持"谨慎渐进"的步伐。美联储理事沃勒表示，当 前经济放缓迹象正在显现，未来利率调整或将以25个基点为步幅进行；圣路易斯联储主席穆萨莱姆则认 为，仍存在再降息一次以支撑就业的可能，但须警惕通胀风险。 大宗商品市场波动加剧。国际油价显著下跌，纽约WTI原油期货收跌4.24%，报每桶58.9美元；伦敦布 伦特原油期货跌3.82%，收于每桶62.73美元。 避险买盘支撑下，COMEX黄金期货上涨0.70%，收于每盎司4000.4美元。 截至收盘，道琼斯工业平均指数下跌878.82点，收于45479.60点，跌幅1.9%；标普500指数下跌182.6 点，收于6552.51点，跌幅2.71%； ...

山海：极限上涨，黄金突破4000美元关口！ 黄金站稳在4000美元关口，今年以来，受地缘局势变化，全球贸易不确定性，美联储独立性争议，以及美国财政部稳定性担忧等因素影响，黄 金价格已经累计上涨超50%。随着华盛顿方面陷入政府拨款僵局，投资者为防范潜在的市场冲击纷纷寻求避险，进一步加剧了金价上涨的紧迫 性。此外，美联储货币宽松周期的开启也对黄金有利好的表现，投资者对此的反应是大局涌入黄金交易所基金，9月黄金ETF创三年交易量的 新高。现在黄金突破4000关口，背后的不仅仅是市场的恐慌情绪，更是资产重新配置的需求，当前经济数据发布暂停，降息在即，实际收益率 不断走低，是投资黄金的机会也是黄金投资的陷阱。 国际白银强调上个周期等待回落到47或者46.5支撑做多，虽然周二走出回落，最低在47.2，但是没有到支撑点，所以，没有办法跟上交易。现 在需要讨论的是，黄金在刷新高点后，白银是否能补涨刷新高点。所以，在趋势作用之下，观察一下白银的上涨力度。下方支撑继续维持47附 近，能回落就做多，没有回落就空仓观望，上方则还是看49，50高点的得失。 国际原油经过两个交易日的涨跌，目前最高在62.2附近，虽然周二出现了下跌空间， ...

Economic Overview - The U.S. employment data for July fell short of market expectations, leading to increased concerns about the economic outlook and a surge in expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September [1][4] - The unemployment rate rose by 0.1 percentage points to 4.2% in July, with significant downward revisions to previously reported job growth for May and June, indicating a cooling labor market [4][5] Stock Market Reaction - All three major U.S. stock indices closed down on August 1, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling by 1.23%, the S&P 500 down by 1.6%, and the Nasdaq down by 2.24% [2][4] - Amazon's stock plummeted over 8% due to concerns regarding its cloud computing business's slower-than-expected profit growth [2][4] Market Sentiment - The CBOE Volatility Index, a measure of market fear, rose to 20.41 points, reflecting heightened risk aversion among investors [2][4] - Precious metal prices surged as investors sought safe-haven assets, with gold prices increasing by 2.22% and silver prices rising by 0.84% [3] Federal Reserve Expectations - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September jumped from 37.7% to 75.5% following the disappointing employment data [4][5] Political Developments - President Trump announced the dismissal of the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Erica McEntyre, citing dissatisfaction with the employment data, which he accused of being manipulated for political purposes [5][6] - Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler announced her resignation effective August 8, allowing President Trump to make new appointments to the Federal Reserve Board ahead of schedule [7]

| | | | 第一部分 | 前言概要 2 | | --- | --- | | | 2 | | | 2 | | | 2 | | 第二部分 | 行情复盘与前瞻 3 | | | 3 | | | 4 | | 第三部分 | 宏观面因素 5 | | | 5 | | | 6 | | 第四部分 | 基本面因素 8 | | | 8 | | | 8 | | | 9 | | | 9 | | | 10 | | | 10 | | | 11 | | 第五部分 | 后市展望及策略推荐 12 | | | 免责声明 13 | 有色板块研发报告 贵金属 8 月报 2025 年 7 月 31 日 弱预期遭遇强现实 贵金属价格高位震荡 第一部分 前言概要 银河期货 第 2 页 共 13 页 有色板块研发报告 贵金属 8 月报 2025 年 7 月 31 日 第二部分 行情复盘与前瞻 图表 3：沪金盘面走势 单位：元/克 图表 4：沪银盘面走势 单位：元/千克 第 3 页 共 13 页 贵金属 8 月报 2025 年 7 月 31 日 图表 1：伦敦金盘面走势 单位：美元/盎司 图表 2：伦敦银盘面走势 单位：美元/盎司 有色板块研发报告 第 4 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices is attributed to a significant drop in the US dollar index and rising market fears due to uncertainties in US fiscal policy [1][2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold prices continued to rise, reaching $3310.61 per ounce with a 0.63% increase [1] - The US dollar index fell to a two-week low of 99.42, reducing the cost of holding gold priced in dollars, which has stimulated buying interest from European and Asian investors [2] - Concerns over the US economy, including a potential recession and the impact of trade tensions, have contributed to the dollar's decline [2] Group 2: Political Factors - The Trump administration is pushing for a comprehensive tax cut plan worth trillions, but there are significant divisions within the Republican Party, with at least five senior members opposing the current version due to fears of increasing the fiscal deficit [2] - The political struggle surrounding the tax cut plan raises concerns about a potential government shutdown if the legislation fails, prompting investors to seek refuge in gold [2] Group 3: Technical Analysis - Gold opened at around $3290 and has broken through previous resistance levels, indicating a bullish trend [3] - Key support levels for gold are noted at $3278-85, with short-term resistance at $3315-21 and significant resistance at $3340-45 [3] - The critical threshold for determining market strength is identified at $3253-60, with a bullish outlook maintained as long as prices stay above this level [3]