路透社、彭博社分析指出，亚洲股市本轮下跌行情主要受美股剧烈波动拖累。 昨日晚间，受市场对AI泡沫的恐慌情绪影响，美股三大指数全线收跌，道指跌0.84%，标普500指数跌 1.56%，纳指跌幅达2.15%。市场经历剧烈波动。衡量市场恐慌情绪的芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数 （VIX）升至26.42，为4月以来最高水平。 11月21日，日经225指数收跌2.40%，报48625.88点，本周累计跌幅已达3.29%。韩国综指收跌3.79%，报 3853.26点，本周累计下跌5.52%。 此外，美国劳工部20日发布的数据显示，9月美国非农业部门新增就业人数为11.9万，略高于预期，但 失业率继续上升，环比上升0.1个百分点至4.4%，为四年以来高点。美联储12月降息概率小幅升至40% 左右，市场对于下月是否降息仍不确定。 本文系观察者网独家稿件，未经授权，不得转载。 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The global financial markets experienced a significant downturn on "Black Friday," with both risk and safe-haven assets declining simultaneously, including a more than 3% drop in Nvidia and a four-day decline in Tesla [1] - The cryptocurrency market saw a substantial correction, with Bitcoin briefly falling below $96,000, while gold prices dropped over 2% to below $4,100 per ounce [1] - The decline was attributed to a cooling of interest rate cut expectations from the Federal Reserve, a data vacuum due to the U.S. government shutdown, and concentrated selling pressure in overvalued sectors, leading to increased investor anxiety as indicated by the VIX index rising above 22 [1] Group 2: Technology Sector - Technology stocks, previously a key driver of market gains, faced significant selling pressure, with the Nasdaq 100 futures down 1.5% and the S&P 500 futures down 1% [2] - The adjustment in tech stocks is closely linked to shifting Federal Reserve policy expectations, with the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December dropping from 70% to 47% [2] - Nvidia's pre-market drop of 3.11% and a cumulative market cap loss exceeding $200 billion reflect ongoing concerns about high valuations in the AI sector [4] Group 3: Cryptocurrency and Gold - Both cryptocurrencies and gold experienced rare simultaneous declines, indicating a re-evaluation of risk and safe-haven assets [3] - Bitcoin fell to $95,985.4, a nearly 3% drop from the previous close, while Ethereum saw a 10.9% decline, marking its largest single-day drop in three months [5] - Gold's decline of over 2.21% to a low of $4,059.17 per ounce was influenced by a stable U.S. dollar and perceptions of U.S. economic resilience, reducing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [5] Group 4: Economic Data and Policy Uncertainty - The U.S. government shutdown has created a data vacuum, delaying the release of critical economic indicators such as the October CPI and employment data, which complicates Federal Reserve policy decisions [6] - The absence of sufficient data may prevent the Fed from cutting rates, contributing to increased market volatility as uncertainty looms [6]

Group 1 - Global risk assets experienced a broad decline, with significant drops in both US and Chinese indices, particularly in technology stocks [2][5][6] - The decline in asset prices is attributed to overseas risk events, including the potential impact of the US government shutdown and renewed trade tensions between the US and China [2][5][6] - The VIX index, a measure of market volatility, has increased but remains below extreme levels, indicating that the market is not in a state of panic [6][10][12] Group 2 - Since April, asset prices have gradually recovered from a period of excessive pessimism, aided by positive developments such as fiscal expansion in the US and capital expenditures from tech giants [3][7][12] - The report highlights two potential paths for the US economy: one indicating a late-stage stagflation in the service sector and another showing early recovery in manufacturing [12][17] - The upcoming earnings season for US technology companies is crucial to observe whether expectations will align with reality [12][17] Group 3 - The report suggests that while there is no current panic in the market, the higher valuation levels compared to April indicate a lack of "greed" [17] - For Chinese assets, the previous gains were largely driven by alignment with overseas technology trends, which may pose vulnerabilities in the short term [17] - The report recommends focusing on domestic policies and sectors that may benefit from a recovery in domestic demand, such as food and beverage, aviation, and real estate [17]

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market experienced a significant decline, with major indices falling sharply due to renewed concerns over geopolitical tensions and trade policy uncertainty [1] - The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) rose to its highest level since mid-June, indicating increased market fear [1] Index Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped by 878.82 points, closing at 45479.60, a decrease of 1.9% - The S&P 500 fell by 182.6 points to 6552.51, down 2.71% - The Nasdaq Composite decreased by 820.2 points, ending at 22204.43, a decline of 3.56% - Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq recorded their largest single-day drops since April [1] Weekly Performance - For the week, the S&P 500 declined by 2.43%, the Dow Jones fell by 2.73%, and the Nasdaq dropped by 2.53% [2] Sector Performance - The semiconductor sector was notably affected, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index falling by 6.3% [3] - Major tech stocks saw significant declines, including Broadcom down 5.9%, Tesla down 5.1%, Amazon down approximately 5%, and Nvidia down 4.9% [2] Chinese Stocks - Chinese stocks also faced pressure, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index dropping by 6.1% - Alibaba fell over 8%, Pinduoduo down over 5%, JD down over 6%, and NIO down over 10% [3] Bond Market - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond decreased by 9.1 basis points to 4.057%, the lowest in over a month - The 2-year Treasury yield fell by 7.5 basis points to 3.512% [3] Economic Indicators - The University of Michigan's preliminary consumer confidence index for October remained at historically low levels, with inflation and employment outlooks dampening consumer sentiment [3] - Federal Reserve officials indicated a cautious and gradual approach to future monetary policy adjustments, with potential rate changes of 25 basis points [3] Commodity Market - The commodity market saw increased volatility, with international oil prices significantly declining; WTI crude oil futures fell by 4.24% to $58.90 per barrel, and Brent crude oil futures dropped by 3.82% to $62.73 per barrel [4] - In contrast, COMEX gold futures rose by 0.70%, closing at $4000.4 per ounce, supported by safe-haven buying [5]

Group 1 - Gold prices have surpassed the $4000 mark, driven by geopolitical tensions, global trade uncertainties, and concerns over the stability of the U.S. Treasury [2] - Year-to-date, gold prices have increased by over 50%, with a significant influx of investments into gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) as investors seek safe-haven assets amid market volatility [2] - The current economic environment, characterized by low real yields and an impending interest rate cut, presents both opportunities and challenges for gold investments [2] Group 2 - The recent upward trend in gold prices has been consistent, with traders advised to focus on maintaining positions rather than predicting peak prices [4] - Technical analysis suggests that support levels for gold are around $3975, with potential buying opportunities if prices retrace to this level [5] - The silver market is being monitored for potential upward movement, with support levels identified around $47, indicating a cautious approach to trading [5] Group 3 - International crude oil prices have shown some volatility, with a recent high of $62.2, but overall, there is a demand for a rebound in prices [6] - A bullish outlook for crude oil is maintained as long as prices stay above the $60 support level, with further buying opportunities if prices exceed $62.5 [6]

Economic Overview - The U.S. employment data for July fell short of market expectations, leading to increased concerns about the economic outlook and a surge in expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September [1][4] - The unemployment rate rose by 0.1 percentage points to 4.2% in July, with significant downward revisions to previously reported job growth for May and June, indicating a cooling labor market [4][5] Stock Market Reaction - All three major U.S. stock indices closed down on August 1, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling by 1.23%, the S&P 500 down by 1.6%, and the Nasdaq down by 2.24% [2][4] - Amazon's stock plummeted over 8% due to concerns regarding its cloud computing business's slower-than-expected profit growth [2][4] Market Sentiment - The CBOE Volatility Index, a measure of market fear, rose to 20.41 points, reflecting heightened risk aversion among investors [2][4] - Precious metal prices surged as investors sought safe-haven assets, with gold prices increasing by 2.22% and silver prices rising by 0.84% [3] Federal Reserve Expectations - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September jumped from 37.7% to 75.5% following the disappointing employment data [4][5] Political Developments - President Trump announced the dismissal of the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Erica McEntyre, citing dissatisfaction with the employment data, which he accused of being manipulated for political purposes [5][6] - Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler announced her resignation effective August 8, allowing President Trump to make new appointments to the Federal Reserve Board ahead of schedule [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report focuses on the precious metals market in August 2025, analyzing the market from aspects of market review, macro - factors, fundamental factors, and provides future outlook and strategy recommendations. It points out that precious metal prices are in high - level oscillations due to the encounter of weak expectations and strong reality [4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - The report presents the disk trends of London gold, London silver, Shanghai gold, and Shanghai silver, but no specific review and outlook content is provided [12][13] 3.2 Macro - factors - **Trade Negotiations**: In July 2025, there were a series of trade negotiation events. Trump announced multiple tariff policies, including plans to impose tariffs on various countries and products such as imports of copper, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductors. There were also trade agreements reached between the US and countries like Indonesia, Japan, and the EU. China and the US will continue to promote the extension of relevant tariffs and maintain communication on economic and trade issues [19] - **Market Sentiment and Risk Preference**: Market panic has fallen to a low level, and the three major US stock indexes have rebounded, indicating a continuous recovery of market risk preference [20] - **Employment and Unemployment**: The number of new non - farm jobs in the US and the unemployment rate are presented. The unemployment rate has unexpectedly decreased [26] - **Inflation**: The US CPI has shown a mild rebound, and small categories of goods and services are the main drivers of inflation [32] - **Interest Rate Expectations**: The CME FedWatch Tool shows the probability of different interest rate ranges in each Fed meeting from July 2025 to December 2026, reflecting market expectations for interest rate changes [31] 3.3 Fundamental Factors - **Gold Supply and Demand**: From 2014 - 2025 (forecast), gold supply mainly comes from gold mine production and recycling. Total supply is expected to increase by 3.4% in 2025 compared to 2024. Demand includes gold jewelry manufacturing, consumption, technology, investment, etc. Investment demand is expected to increase by 21.2% in 2025. The overall supply - demand balance shows a certain change trend, and the LBMA gold price has also fluctuated [39] - **Silver - related Data**: Data on China's silver production, exports, inventories (LBMA, COMEX, SHFE, SGE), and silver - related consumption in the photovoltaic industry (world and China's photovoltaic installation and production forecasts, silver paste consumption in TOPCon batteries, and silver powder production) are presented [46][50][59] - **Investment and Position Data**: Data on gold and silver ETFs and CFTC positions are provided, reflecting market investment trends [48][64] 3.4 Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendations - No specific content on future outlook and strategy recommendations is provided in the given text

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices is attributed to a significant drop in the US dollar index and rising market fears due to uncertainties in US fiscal policy [1][2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold prices continued to rise, reaching $3310.61 per ounce with a 0.63% increase [1] - The US dollar index fell to a two-week low of 99.42, reducing the cost of holding gold priced in dollars, which has stimulated buying interest from European and Asian investors [2] - Concerns over the US economy, including a potential recession and the impact of trade tensions, have contributed to the dollar's decline [2] Group 2: Political Factors - The Trump administration is pushing for a comprehensive tax cut plan worth trillions, but there are significant divisions within the Republican Party, with at least five senior members opposing the current version due to fears of increasing the fiscal deficit [2] - The political struggle surrounding the tax cut plan raises concerns about a potential government shutdown if the legislation fails, prompting investors to seek refuge in gold [2] Group 3: Technical Analysis - Gold opened at around $3290 and has broken through previous resistance levels, indicating a bullish trend [3] - Key support levels for gold are noted at $3278-85, with short-term resistance at $3315-21 and significant resistance at $3340-45 [3] - The critical threshold for determining market strength is identified at $3253-60, with a bullish outlook maintained as long as prices stay above this level [3]

Core Viewpoint - Domestic fuel prices in China have increased for the third time this year, with gasoline and diesel prices rising by 230 yuan/ton and 220 yuan/ton respectively, effective from April 2 [1][4]. Price Impact - The cost of fuel for private cars and logistics companies will rise, with an example showing that filling a 50L tank of 92 gasoline will cost an additional 9 yuan, while a heavy truck running 10,000 km per month will see an increase of approximately 361 yuan in fuel costs [2]. Market Dynamics - The current price adjustment marks the seventh change in 2025, reflecting a pattern of "three increases, three decreases, and one stagnation" for the year [4]. - International oil prices have shown a fluctuating upward trend, influenced by OPEC+ countries agreeing to implement compensatory production cuts until June 2026, with reductions estimated between 189,000 to 435,000 barrels per day [5]. Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical tensions, including new U.S. sanctions on Iran and Venezuela, are contributing to market concerns about oil supply, with the potential for reduced exports from these countries [5]. - The easing of the Russia-Ukraine situation has slightly alleviated supply pressures, but renewed fears regarding U.S.-Iran relations have led to increased oil prices [5]. Future Price Outlook - The direction of the next round of fuel price adjustments remains uncertain, with analysts suggesting a higher probability of a decrease due to anticipated U.S. tariff policies and OPEC+ production strategies [7]. - Analysts predict that U.S. oil inventory pressures and concerns over demand due to trade disputes may lead to weaker oil prices in the near term [7]. - Domestic demand may see a boost during the Qingming holiday and spring farming season, potentially supporting gasoline and diesel consumption [7]. Supply Considerations - The number of major refineries undergoing maintenance is expected to increase, while some local refineries are resuming operations, leading to a moderate tightening of market supply [8]. - The next price adjustment window is set to open on April 17, 2025 [8].