长江有色金属网www.ccmn.cn 电话：0592-5668838 CCMN现货市场评述：今日长江现货成交价格23130-23170元/吨，跌190元，贴水170-贴水130，涨30 元；广东现货23105-23155元/吨，跌230元，贴水160-贴水110，涨25元；上海地区23120-23160元/吨， 跌190元，贴水180-贴水140，涨30元。 宏观层面，凯文·沃什的提名短期内对美元构成"利好"，其暂时缓解了市场对美联储独立性极端担忧， 避免了信任危机瞬间爆发。他丰富的个人经验与出色的沟通能力，有助于稳定市场短期预期。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 2月6日亚市时段，美元指数在97.90附近窄幅震荡，近期总体延续自四年低点95.57的反弹态势。随着紧 张局势升级，美国建议公民撤离伊朗，关键外交谈判面临严重分歧与军事威胁。地缘危机"紧急升级信 号"引发避险买盘，周五亚欧时段，现货黄金震荡上行，带动有色金属板块情绪部分修复，限制铝价跌 幅。外交博弈在军事压力不断加剧的背景下展开，美国持续在海湾地区集结兵力，特朗普总统近期措辞 强硬，威胁若德黑兰不满足美国一系列要求，将对其发动军事打击。美国 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The aluminum market is currently in a state of extreme panic, with weak aluminum price trends. After a sharp short - term decline in aluminum prices, the weak trend may continue. The market should pay attention to market sentiment and spot demand. If copper prices continue to fall, it may drive aluminum prices to remain weak [4][5]. 3. Summary According to Related Data Market Panic and Price Movements - The U.S. federal government partial shutdown and Trump's nomination of Walsh as the successor to the Federal Reserve Chairman, along with concerns about his hawkish stance, led to a sharp rise in the dollar. Panic spread in the market, causing a full - scale decline in capital markets. A - shares, the Hang Seng Index, and Asian stock markets all fell, with the South Korean stock market triggering a trading halt. Non - ferrous metals, including copper, aluminum, tin, and nickel, all hit the daily limit down, with LME aluminum and domestic spot aluminum also dropping significantly [4]. Aluminum Price and Inventory - Today, the closing price of SHFE aluminum was 23,035, and the spot price was 23,700, with a spot premium of 665 points over the futures. This week, SHFE aluminum rose first and then fell, and the spot discount widened to - 220 yuan. After the sharp decline, spot trading improved. Domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventories increased significantly, alumina inventories increased slightly, and SHFE aluminum inventories increased significantly. In the off - season, spot demand at the high level was poor. LME inventories increased slightly, and the LME spot market turned to a discount of - 27 dollars, indicating poor overseas spot demand [4]. Exchange Rate and Price Ratio - This week, the RMB exchange rate dropped significantly, and the SHFE - LME aluminum price ratio rose to 7.84, with the domestic and overseas markets showing similar trends [4]. Technical Analysis - Today, U.S. natural gas prices plunged, U.S. crude oil prices fell, and LME aluminum fell, trading around 3,020 dollars. SHFE aluminum hit the daily limit down, closing at 23,035, and its technical form weakened. The trading volume was high while the open interest of SHFE aluminum decreased significantly, and market sentiment was panicked [5].

Market Overview - The domestic precious metals market experienced significant declines today, with most contracts hitting the limit down, indicating a worsening situation in the afternoon compared to the morning [2][11] - Key contracts and their price changes include: - Silver (沪银2604) at 24,832, down 17.00% - Palladium (把2606) at 413.70, down 16.00% - Platinum (辑2606) at 552.15, down 16.00% - Gold (沪金2604) at 1,020.40, down 14.75% - Lithium Carbonate (碳酸锂2605) at 134,140, down 12.88% [2][11] Trading Volume and Pressure - The trading volume for the main silver contract (Ag2604) has significantly shrunk, indicating heavy selling pressure with nearly 42,000 sell orders piled up at the limit down price [3][5][11] - The overall market sentiment is marked by fear, as related sectors failed to stabilize, further exacerbating the situation [7][14] Technical Analysis - The gold contract (Au2604) is approaching a critical support level around 1,000. A breakdown below this level could signal further weakness in the market [7][14] - Current market conditions do not show any clear signs of recovery, and if the weak trend continues, there is a possibility of further declines in the night session [9][17] Geopolitical Factors - Recent developments regarding the Epstein case have heightened concerns about political uncertainty in the U.S., which may lead to increased market volatility [9][17] - Investors are advised to monitor the U.S.-Iran situation closely, as any escalation could trigger risk-off sentiment that might provide some relief for precious metals [9][17] Investment Strategy - The company recommends that investors remain cautious, prioritize position protection, and avoid blind trading in a volatile environment [9][17]

今年以来全球大类资产呈现显著分化态势，股票市场整体波动率维持低位，而贵金属、外汇及大宗商品 市场波动加剧，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数（VIX）未能充分反映当前宏观层面的风险信号，市场恐 慌情绪从股市转向大宗商品与汇率赛道。 相关美联储主席提名落地后，金属价格出现下跌，但市场波动率仍维持高位。Susquehanna International Group衍生品市场情报联席主管Chris Murphy表示："这一提名决定并未指向会催生市场过热的政策转 向，而此前市场对黄金的过热炒作正是贵金属遭到抛售的核心原因。如果你问我，黄金每天飙升更可 怕，还是在大幅上涨后进入盘整阶段更可怕，就实际风险而言，我认为黄金每天飙升更可怕。" 当前市场资金在黄金与股票间的配置关系出现变化，部分基金通过期权工具押注两者相关性变动，此前 黄金与股票相关性长期维持在零附近，当前已出现小幅上升。汇率市场成为资金押注波动放大的重要赛 道，美元兑日元隐含波动率出现显著上行，短期汇率波动幅度超过4%。 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 来源：市场资讯 今年以来，金价受相关政策支撑持续走高，即便经 ...

Market Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased by 217 points, or 0.5%, after experiencing a drop of over 500 points earlier in the session [1] - The S&P 500 index fell by 0.4%, while the Nasdaq Composite declined by 0.7% [1] Volatility Indicators - The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) reached a high of 19.27 before retracting, indicating increased market volatility [1] - A VIX level above 20 is considered a threshold that signals heightened levels of market fear and volatility [1]

智通财经获悉，国际金价首次站上每盎司5000美元关口，涨势依然迅猛。这一轮凌厉的上涨，背后源于 美国总统特朗普的外交格局重塑，以及投资者大举撤离主权债券和各国货币的市场行为。 受美元走弱进一步提振黄金需求的影响，现货黄金涨幅一度扩大至2.1%，价格逼近每盎司5100美元。 过去六个交易日，美元指数累计跌幅近2%;市场猜测美国或协助日本提振日元汇率，这一消息叠加对美 联储独立性的担忧、以及特朗普政策的反复性，进一步加剧了美元的弱势。白银价格同样创下历史新 高，突破每盎司109美元，实现三连涨。 截至发稿，现货黄金报每盎司5078.20美元，涨幅1.9%;白银报每盎司107.72美元，涨幅4.6%。铂金价创 历史新高，钯金价同样走高。美元现货指数继上周下跌1.6%后，周一再跌0.4%。 上周末，特朗普发出威胁，称若加拿大与中国达成贸易协议，美国将对加拿大所有对美出口商品加征 100%关税，加美双边紧张局势进一步升级。与此同时，美国国内的政治不确定性仍居高不下：参议院 民主党领袖查克・舒默明确表示，除非共和党取消国土安全部的相关拨款，否则将否决大规模支出法 案，这一表态也加大了美国政府部分停摆的风险。 过去两年，黄 ...

格隆汇1月21日｜摩根大通资产管理公司的首席投资官鲍勃·米歇尔表示，市场抛售是对特朗普政府的一 个信号，要求其采取行动恢复平静，就像去年"解放日关税"令投资者感到不安后官员们所做的那 样。"目前市场有些混乱，确实存在一些恐慌情绪，"米歇尔表示。"4月份市场曾出现剧烈波动，之后很 多事情都得到了平息，随后市场恢复了平静。我们需要听到类似的消息。"周二，标普500指数抹去了今 年迄今以来的涨幅，债券和美元也随之下跌。此前，特朗普威胁要对多个反对他吞并格陵兰岛的欧洲国 家加征关税。 ...

这一言论发生在参议院表决尚未完成之前，显然带有施压的意图。这场博弈，显然并未结束。它从国会 山蔓延到了美联储，而这场风暴也在不断扩展。2026年1月9日，美国司法部对美联储主席鲍威尔展开刑 事调查的消息一经传出，立刻引发了市场的巨大震动。虽然表面上看，这条新闻是关于司法的，却像是 一颗重磅炸弹，直接抛向了金融核心区。司法部给出的调查理由是，美联储华盛顿总部的翻修工程存在 规模、预算和成本上的不实陈述。对于美联储来说，它不仅仅是一个管理利率的机构，它更像是美国金 融体系的轴心。美元为何能成为世界货币，美债为何被视作安全资产，华尔街为何敢于将资金押注美国 ——这些背后的支撑，都离不开美联储的独立性与规则的稳定性。可是，当刑事调查这四个字出现在美 联储主席头上时，市场的第一反应并非是猜测案情，而是担忧规则是否还能保持稳定。特朗普的回应， 同样值得深思。2026年1月11日，他对外表示我不知道，这表面上看似是在和司法调查保持距离，避免 外界将司法行动与白宫直接挂钩；但在政治语境下，这句话实际上将这场博弈推向了更深层次的对抗。 2026年1月8日，华盛顿国会山，230票赞成，196票反对，相差的仅仅34票，足以揭开共和 ...

Market Performance - The Nikkei 225 index closed down 2.40% at 48,625.88 points, with a cumulative decline of 3.29% for the week [1] - The South Korean Composite Index fell by 3.79% to 3,853.26 points, marking a weekly drop of 5.52% [1] Influencing Factors - The recent downturn in Asian stock markets is primarily attributed to significant volatility in the US stock market [1] - On the previous evening, all three major US indices closed lower due to market fears surrounding an AI bubble, with the Dow Jones down 0.84%, the S&P 500 down 1.56%, and the Nasdaq down 2.15% [1] - The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX) rose to 26.42, the highest level since April, indicating increased market fear [1] Economic Indicators - The US Labor Department reported that non-farm payrolls increased by 119,000 in September, slightly above expectations, but the unemployment rate rose by 0.1 percentage points to 4.4%, the highest level in four years [1] - The probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December has slightly increased to around 40%, with market uncertainty regarding the potential rate cut next month [1]

Group 1: Market Overview - The global financial markets experienced a significant downturn on "Black Friday," with both risk and safe-haven assets declining simultaneously, including a more than 3% drop in Nvidia and a four-day decline in Tesla [1] - The cryptocurrency market saw a substantial correction, with Bitcoin briefly falling below $96,000, while gold prices dropped over 2% to below $4,100 per ounce [1] - The decline was attributed to a cooling of interest rate cut expectations from the Federal Reserve, a data vacuum due to the U.S. government shutdown, and concentrated selling pressure in overvalued sectors, leading to increased investor anxiety as indicated by the VIX index rising above 22 [1] Group 2: Technology Sector - Technology stocks, previously a key driver of market gains, faced significant selling pressure, with the Nasdaq 100 futures down 1.5% and the S&P 500 futures down 1% [2] - The adjustment in tech stocks is closely linked to shifting Federal Reserve policy expectations, with the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December dropping from 70% to 47% [2] - Nvidia's pre-market drop of 3.11% and a cumulative market cap loss exceeding $200 billion reflect ongoing concerns about high valuations in the AI sector [4] Group 3: Cryptocurrency and Gold - Both cryptocurrencies and gold experienced rare simultaneous declines, indicating a re-evaluation of risk and safe-haven assets [3] - Bitcoin fell to $95,985.4, a nearly 3% drop from the previous close, while Ethereum saw a 10.9% decline, marking its largest single-day drop in three months [5] - Gold's decline of over 2.21% to a low of $4,059.17 per ounce was influenced by a stable U.S. dollar and perceptions of U.S. economic resilience, reducing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [5] Group 4: Economic Data and Policy Uncertainty - The U.S. government shutdown has created a data vacuum, delaying the release of critical economic indicators such as the October CPI and employment data, which complicates Federal Reserve policy decisions [6] - The absence of sufficient data may prevent the Fed from cutting rates, contributing to increased market volatility as uncertainty looms [6]