投资建议与盈利预测：公司坚定长期发展战略，主动实施控量挺价策略，积极协助经销商提升动销，消 化渠道库存。8 月30 日将上市首款低酒度畅饮型老酒"舍得自在"，顺应白酒年轻化及低度化趋势。公司 将坚持以老酒战略为基石，推动多品牌矩阵、年轻化和国际化战略，业绩有望企稳回升。预计公司25- 27 年实现营业收入56.31/60.65/66.44 亿元；实现归母净利润9.08/10.28/11.09 亿元；PE 分别为 22.34/19.74/18.29x，维持"推荐"评级。 风险提示：宏观经济下行风险；终端库存消化不及预期；居民消费恢复不及预期；行业竞争加剧等 电商销售稳步增长，全渠道布局持续深化。25H1 省内/省外分别实现营收7.83/16.35 亿元，同 比-13.91%/-21.24%。从渠道端来看，批发代理/电商分别实现收入20.82/3.36 亿元，同 比-23.72%/+31.38%。近年来，公司不断加强对市场、渠道及消费者的研究与运营，在服务上千家一级 经销商及数万家烟酒店渠道为核心终端的基础上，不断拓展电商、C2M、企业团购、现代商超、餐饮 等新渠道，全渠道销售能力不断提升。通过生态融通、数字化会 ...

Core Insights - The Chinese liquor market is undergoing a quiet transformation, particularly in the mid-to-low-end segment, driven by changing consumer habits and the blurring of traditional consumption scenarios [3] - The industry is in a deep adjustment phase characterized by policy changes, a shift in consumption structure, and intense competition, leading to a notable trend of "declining volume but increasing profits" [4] Industry Trends - In 2024, the total production of large-scale liquor enterprises in China is projected to be 4.145 million kiloliters, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8%, while sales revenue and total profit continue to rise [4] - The first quarter of 2025 is expected to see a more severe challenge, with liquor production down by 7.2% year-on-year, potentially marking the eighth consecutive year of production decline [4] - The revised policy in May 2025, which expands the ban on alcohol to all alcoholic beverages, further exacerbates the decline in traditional government consumption scenarios [4] Consumer Behavior - There is a clear trend towards younger and more rational consumer groups, with the philosophy of "drink less, drink better" gaining traction, leading to a shift towards smaller dining scenarios like casual gatherings and solo dining [6] - In the Chengdu market, the price segment of 100-300 yuan has a market size exceeding 5 billion yuan, becoming the main driver of liquor sales [6] New Consumption Scenarios - The rise of instant retail has revolutionized liquor consumption, with a reported over 100% year-on-year growth in instant retail transactions for liquor, and mid-to-high-end products priced above 500 yuan now accounting for 35% of sales [7] - Outdoor and family scenarios are emerging as new opportunities for mid-to-low-end liquor, with significant growth in consumer access to liquor during outdoor activities [9] - Family gatherings are benefiting from instant retail, allowing for spontaneous purchases of liquor, especially during holidays, with a reported 24% year-on-year growth in liquor sales on platforms like JD.com [10] Product Innovation - The diversification of consumer tastes is prompting liquor companies to innovate, with a focus on lower alcohol content and healthier options, facilitating entry into pure drinking scenarios [11] - The introduction of small bottle liquor options is catering to the "small quantity, multiple times" consumption demand, with over twenty new products launched in the first half of 2025 [11] Market Outlook - The mid-to-low-end liquor market is positioned to capture growth opportunities amid the crisis and market iteration, as the industry transitions from "scale expansion" to "value cultivation" [13] - Companies are encouraged to actively explore new consumption scenarios, innovate products, and leverage emerging channels like instant retail to enhance market penetration and attract younger consumers [13]

Core Insights - The "2025 Thailand Appointment: China (Sichuan) Boutique Shopping Festival" commenced in Bangkok, showcasing over 3,500 selected products from 35 Chengdu enterprises, achieving unexpected cooperation results through a three-dimensional model of "product exhibition + cultural exchange + business matching" [1][4] Group 1: Event Overview - The event features a strong representation of Sichuan products, including notable brands in liquor and tea, such as Dali Qingmei Wine, Shede, and Emei Mountain Organic Tea, highlighting the appeal of Sichuan's "mountain and water dual charm" [3] - The event attracted significant media attention, with 27 mainstream media outlets in Thailand covering it extensively, particularly the "Tianfu Reception Hall" showcasing cultural and creative products [3] Group 2: Business Engagement - A business exchange meeting attracted nearly 100 Thai buyers, including representatives from over 30 well-known companies, facilitating a vibrant B2B negotiation atmosphere [4] - The Chengdu delegation secured nearly 20 million RMB in intended purchases on the opening day, exceeding expectations, with specific orders including 2 million RMB for spicy konjac food products [4] Group 3: Market Exploration - Prior to the festival, the Chengdu business group conducted site visits to major Thai beverage companies and retail chains, paving the way for Sichuan products to enter the Thai market [5]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for Q1 2025, indicating challenges in the market while focusing on brand optimization and market expansion strategies [1][2]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 1.576 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 25.14% - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 346 million yuan, down 37.1% year-on-year - The revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor and ordinary liquor was 1.234 billion yuan and 208 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -28.46% and -12.59% [1]. Product and Market Strategy - The company is optimizing its product structure, aiming to establish the Tuo Pai brand as the leading brand in the high-end light bottle segment of strong aroma liquor - The revenue from ordinary liquor increased its proportion to 14.42%, up by 2.33 percentage points [1]. - The company is focusing on consolidating its position in the 400 yuan price range while accelerating its market expansion in rural areas [1]. Sales Channels and Market Development - In Q1 2025, wholesale and e-commerce sales generated revenues of 1.237 billion yuan and 205 million yuan, with year-on-year changes of -31.77% and +36.71%, respectively - The company is enhancing its internet marketing channels and aims to make its brand a favorite among consumers in the online space [2]. - The total number of distributors was 2,621, with 215 new and 257 exiting distributors, resulting in a net decrease of 42 distributors compared to the end of 2024 [2]. Profitability Metrics - The gross margin and net margin for Q1 2025 were 69.36% and 21.96%, reflecting year-on-year declines of 4.79 and 4.18 percentage points, respectively - The operating expense ratio was 28.63%, an increase of 3.16 percentage points year-on-year, driven by higher sales and marketing investments [3]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is committed to a long-term strategy focusing on the old liquor market, multi-brand development, youth engagement, and international expansion - It aims to strengthen its brand matrix through a dual-brand strategy of "Shede + Tuo Pai" and enhance its presence in key cities and new regions [3]. - The company has introduced an equity incentive plan to boost team cohesion and performance, signaling management's confidence in future growth [3]. Revenue Forecast - The company expects to achieve revenues of 6.430 billion yuan, 7.285 billion yuan, and 8.310 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 20.04%, 13.28%, and 14.08%, respectively - The projected net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period is 916 million yuan, 1.148 billion yuan, and 1.421 billion yuan, with growth rates of 165.04%, 25.28%, and 23.72% [4].