Core Insights - The report from GF Securities indicates that Shede Spirits has a deep heritage in fine liquor, and after the acquisition by Fosun, the company has undergone comprehensive empowerment, suggesting that an operational turning point may have been established [1] Revenue Growth - The company has achieved rapid revenue growth under the comprehensive transformation, with adjustments made based on external conditions expected to take place in 2024 [1] - Revenue growth in the second and third quarters of 2025 is expected to show significant improvement compared to the first quarter, indicating a potential operational turning point [1] Strategic Adjustments - During the adjustment period, the company has strengthened its internal capabilities in management, product, and channel aspects [1] - The product strategy focuses on "old liquor" as a core differentiating selling point, enhancing the functional value expression of "slow to get drunk, quick to wake up, and more comfortable" [1] Brand Positioning - The dual-brand strategy of "Tuopai + Shede" aims to leverage both high and low-end brands to achieve growth across multiple price segments [1] - The company is positioned to complete its layout in high-end light bottle liquor and the thousand-yuan price range despite market headwinds [1] Valuation - Given the strong recovery elasticity of the company's performance, a 30x PE valuation for 2026 is suggested, corresponding to a reasonable value of 67.15 yuan per share, maintaining a "buy" rating [1]

Core Viewpoint - Shede Liquor's 2025 semi-annual report shows a decline in revenue and net profit, but a significant improvement in Q2 performance, indicating potential recovery in the second half of the year [1][4]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's total revenue for the first half of 2025 was 2.701 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17.41%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 443 million yuan, down 24.98% [1]. - In Q2 2025, revenue reached 1.125 billion yuan, a slight decline of 3.44% year-on-year, but net profit increased by 139.48% to 97 million yuan [1]. - The company reported a gross margin of 65.71% and a net margin of 16.41% for H1 2025, with a slight decrease in both metrics compared to the previous year [3]. Group 2: Brand Strategy - The company is focusing on building the Shede brand as the leading brand in the aged liquor category and the second-tier premium segment, while also enhancing the Tuo Pai brand as a cost-effective mass-market liquor [1]. - The company is developing high-end liquor brands such as "Tian Zi Hu," "She De Bu," and "Tun Zhi Hu," along with mid-range brands like "Tao Zui" [1]. Group 3: Sales Channels - E-commerce sales showed steady growth, with total revenue from online sales reaching 336 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31.38%, while wholesale and agency sales decreased by 23.72% to 2.082 billion yuan [2]. - The company has been expanding its sales channels, including e-commerce, C2M, corporate group purchases, modern supermarkets, and dining, enhancing its overall sales capabilities [2]. Group 4: Cost Control and Efficiency - The company has improved its operational efficiency, with a total expense ratio of 31.96% for H1 2025, an increase of 1.13 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - Actual expenses for sales, management, R&D, and financial activities decreased significantly, indicating effective cost control measures [3]. Group 5: Investment Outlook - The company is implementing a strategy to control volume and maintain prices, aiming to assist distributors in improving sales and reducing channel inventory [4]. - The launch of the low-alcohol, easy-drinking aged liquor "Shede Zizai" is expected to align with the trend towards younger and lower-alcohol beverages [4]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 5.631 billion, 6.065 billion, and 6.644 billion yuan, with net profits expected to reach 908 million, 1.028 billion, and 1.109 billion yuan respectively [4].

Core Insights - The "2025 Thailand Appointment: China (Sichuan) Boutique Shopping Festival" commenced in Bangkok, showcasing over 3,500 selected products from 35 Chengdu enterprises, achieving unexpected cooperation results through a three-dimensional model of "product exhibition + cultural exchange + business matching" [1][4] Group 1: Event Overview - The event features a strong representation of Sichuan products, including notable brands in liquor and tea, such as Dali Qingmei Wine, Shede, and Emei Mountain Organic Tea, highlighting the appeal of Sichuan's "mountain and water dual charm" [3] - The event attracted significant media attention, with 27 mainstream media outlets in Thailand covering it extensively, particularly the "Tianfu Reception Hall" showcasing cultural and creative products [3] Group 2: Business Engagement - A business exchange meeting attracted nearly 100 Thai buyers, including representatives from over 30 well-known companies, facilitating a vibrant B2B negotiation atmosphere [4] - The Chengdu delegation secured nearly 20 million RMB in intended purchases on the opening day, exceeding expectations, with specific orders including 2 million RMB for spicy konjac food products [4] Group 3: Market Exploration - Prior to the festival, the Chengdu business group conducted site visits to major Thai beverage companies and retail chains, paving the way for Sichuan products to enter the Thai market [5]