Group 1 - Oil and gas stocks experienced a significant afternoon rally, with WTI crude oil futures for March settling at $60.93 per barrel, an increase of $1.61 or 2.7%, and Brent crude oil futures for March settling at $65.47 per barrel, up $1.60 or 2.5% [1] - Long-term outlook suggests that ongoing international turmoil and regional political uncertainties may support oil price stability. The Federal Reserve's potential resumption of interest rate cuts and the uncertain risks of global trade conflicts are factors to monitor regarding oil price demand expectations for 2026 [1] - Recent institutional buying has been noted, with an increase of 38 million subscriptions in the last two weeks, indicating strong market interest in oil and gas investments [1] Group 2 - As of December 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the National Petroleum and Natural Gas Index (399439) include China National Petroleum, Sinopec, CNOOC, and others, collectively accounting for 67.11% of the index [2] - The oil and gas ETF (159697) closely tracks the National Petroleum and Natural Gas Index, reflecting the price changes of publicly listed companies in the oil and gas sector on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges [1][2]

Group 1 - The EIA's Short-Term Energy Outlook report projects Brent crude oil prices to be $55.87 per barrel in 2026, up from a previous estimate of $55.08, and WTI crude oil prices to be $52.21 per barrel, up from $51.42 [1] - IEA's December report indicates a global oil demand growth of 860,000 barrels per day for 2026, revised up by 90,000 barrels per day, with chemical feedstock demand expected to dominate this growth, increasing its share from 40% in 2025 to 60% [1] - On the supply side, IEA forecasts a global oil supply increase of 2.4 million barrels per day for 2026, revised down by 20,000 barrels per day, due to OPEC+ halting production increases and sanctions on Russian and Venezuelan oil [1] Group 2 - As of January 14, 2026, the National Petroleum and Natural Gas Index (399439) rose by 1.58%, with notable increases in stocks such as Jereh Group (up 7.61%) and Dewei (up 5.93%) [1] - The Oil and Gas ETF (159697) increased by 1.30%, marking a five-day consecutive rise, with a latest price of 1.25 yuan and a net subscription of 34 million shares in the morning session [1] - The National Petroleum and Natural Gas Index reflects the price changes of publicly listed companies in the oil and gas sector on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges, with the top ten weighted stocks accounting for 67.11% of the index [2]

区域局势升温，持续推动原油价格走高，消息面上，国际能源署（IEA）当地时间1月13日表示，委内 瑞拉恢复石油生产将需要时间，短期内收益有限。 光大证券指出，若伊朗局势进一步升级，可能对伊朗原油生产和出口造成重大影响。长期来看，区域政 治的不确定性有望为油价景气奠定基础。 数据显示，截至2025年12月31日，国证石油天然气指数(399439)前十大权重股分别为中国石油、中国石 化、中国海油、杰瑞股份、广汇能源、招商轮船、新奥股份、九丰能源、中远海能、大众公用，前十大 权重股合计占比67.11%。 油气ETF(159697)，场外联接(A：019827；C：019828；I：022861)。 以上内容与数据，与有连云立场无关，不构成投资建议。据此操作，风险自担。 截至2026年1月14日 10:31，国证石油天然气指数(399439)强势上涨1.37%，成分股杰瑞股份上涨7.69%， 厚普股份上涨4.63%，洲际油气上涨4.19%，招商南油，兰石重装等个股跟涨。油气ETF(159697)上涨 0.81%， 冲击5连涨。最新价报1.24元，盘中净申购1700万份。 油气ETF紧密跟踪国证石油天然气指数，国证石油天 ...

消息面上，美国能源信息署（EIA）发布短期能源展望显示，美国原油产量在去年创新高后，今年及明 年将会下降，而今年的石油需求将保持稳定。 华福石化团队指出，原油价格继续大涨3%，未来仍有上涨空间。短期区域局势恶化，伊朗日产300万 桶，出口占比近一半，占比全球日均消费1.5%，尽管当前面临过剩风险，短期供应的丢失仍会催化油 价进一步上涨，目前衍生品市场及call期权的溢价表现明显，重点布局三桶油（压舱石）、石化油服及 炼化企业、长丝及油气公司。 数据显示，截至2025年12月31日，国证石油天然气指数(399439)前十大权重股分别为中国石油、中国石 化、中国海油、杰瑞股份、广汇能源、招商轮船、新奥股份、九丰能源、中远海能、大众公用，前十大 权重股合计占比67.11%。 油气ETF(159697)，场外联接(A：019827；C：019828；I：022861)。 截至2026年1月14日 09:55，国证石油天然气指数(399439)上涨0.63%，成分股洲际油气上涨4.75%，杰瑞 股份上涨4.04%，厚普股份上涨3.87%，招商南油上涨3.68%，海油工程上涨2.68%。油气ETF(159697)上 涨0 ...

Group 1: Industry Overview - According to Raytad Energy, global upstream exploration and development spending is expected to be around $600 billion in 2025, a decrease of 4% year-on-year, with deepwater investments projected to decline by 6% [1] - China's crude oil production has rebounded since 2019 due to a long-term strategy for increasing reserves and production, with a CAGR of 2.2% from 2019 to 2024, while natural gas production has a CAGR of 7.3% during the same period [1] - The "Big Three" oil companies in China have significantly increased capital expenditures from 2020 to 2023 and are expected to maintain high levels in 2024 and 2025, which will support upstream reserve growth and benefit their oil service subsidiaries [1] Group 2: Company Performance - In the first half of 2025, major oil service companies benefited from the ongoing domestic "increase reserves and production" initiative and the gradual release of overseas business performance, leading to improved operational quality despite falling oil prices [2] - CNOOC's oil service subsidiary reported a 23.3% year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders, while other companies like Haiyou Development and Haiyou Engineering saw net profit changes of +13.1% and -8.2% respectively, with the latter experiencing a 27% increase in gross profit [2] - The annualized ROE for CNOOC's oil service companies in the first half of 2025 showed resilience, with CNOOC at +1.5 percentage points compared to the full year of 2024, indicating a potential improvement in international competitiveness [2] Group 3: Market Performance - As of January 13, 2026, the National Petroleum and Natural Gas Index (399439) rose by 0.81%, with significant increases in stocks such as CNOOC's oil service (+6.03%) and China National Petroleum (+3.57%) [3] - The oil and gas ETF (159697) increased by 1.15%, reflecting a four-day consecutive rise, with the latest price reported at 1.23 yuan and a net subscription of 15 million units [3] - The top ten weighted stocks in the National Petroleum and Natural Gas Index account for 67.11% of the index, including major players like China National Petroleum, Sinopec, and CNOOC [3]

Group 1 - The article highlights concerns over a potential decline in Iranian oil exports due to escalating regional tensions, leading to a rise in oil prices to their highest level since early December last year [1] - Long-term geopolitical instability is expected to support oil price trends, as noted by Everbright Securities, which emphasizes the importance of OPEC+'s recent decision to maintain oil production levels [1] - OPEC+ is projected to increase its total production to 43.065 million barrels per day by November 2025, an increase of 2.44 million barrels per day from January 2025, indicating a significant expansion that could contribute to market volatility [1] Group 2 - As of January 13, 2026, the National Petroleum and Natural Gas Index (399439) rose by 0.69%, with notable increases in component stocks such as CNOOC Services (up 6.17%) and China Shipping (up 5.14%) [1] - The Oil and Gas ETF (159697) also saw a rise of 0.74%, marking its fourth consecutive increase, with the latest price reported at 1.23 yuan [1] - The top ten weighted stocks in the National Petroleum and Natural Gas Index, which include major companies like PetroChina and Sinopec, account for 67.11% of the index [2]

消息面上，全球区域局势持续推升油价，油运市场景气上行。国内方面，2025年，华北油田原油年产量 突破500万吨。这是自2024年以来，该油田原油年产量连续两年突破500万吨。 油气ETF紧密跟踪国证石油天然气指数，国证石油天然气指数反映沪深北交易所石油天然气产业相关上 市公司的证券价格变化情况。 数据显示，截至2025年12月31日，国证石油天然气指数(399439)前十大权重股分别为中国石油、中国石 化、中国海油、杰瑞股份、广汇能源、招商轮船、新奥股份、九丰能源、中远海能、大众公用，前十大 权重股合计占比67.11%。 油气ETF(159697)，场外联接(A：019827；C：019828；I：022861)。 以上内容与数据，与有连云立场无关，不构成投资建议。据此操作，风险自担。 东方证券指出， 委内瑞拉短期原油出口或仍受限，长期出口或合法化提振合规市场油运需求。2025年 委内瑞拉原油产量约占全球1%，原油海运出口量约占全球2%。其中原油海运出口中约17%出口至美 国，五成以上通过影子船队出口至亚洲。短期看，2025年12月委内瑞拉原油海运量环比下降7%，影响 相对有限。长期看，若美国增加对委内瑞拉石 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the merger between Sinopec Group and China National Aviation Fuel Group, which is expected to enhance the resilience of the aviation fuel supply chain and ensure energy security for the aviation industry in China [1][2] - According to S&P, China's aviation fuel consumption is projected to grow from 39.28 million tons in 2024 to 75 million tons by 2040, indicating a significant increase in demand [1] - The merger will leverage the integrated refining and aviation fuel supply chain advantages, reducing intermediate links and lowering supply costs, thereby providing strong support for energy security in the aviation sector [1][2] Group 2 - The restructuring will closely link refining and distribution, forming a vertically integrated supply chain that reduces intermediate costs and enhances market responsiveness and service quality [2] - Sinopec's acquisition of China National Aviation Fuel will enable a complete chain from crude oil refining to aircraft refueling, significantly strengthening its market position in the aviation fuel supply market [2] - The merger aligns with recent state-owned enterprise reforms aimed at enhancing core competitiveness through integration, focusing on optimizing state capital layout and avoiding homogeneous competition [2] Group 3 - As of January 8, 2026, the National Petroleum and Natural Gas Index rose by 0.61%, with significant increases in stocks such as Lanstone Heavy Industry (up 9.97%) and China Merchants Energy (up 6.55%) [3] - The oil and gas ETF reached a new high of 270 million yuan, closely tracking the National Petroleum and Natural Gas Index, which reflects the price changes of listed companies in the oil and gas sector [4]

截至2025年12月30日 10:40，国证石油天然气指数(399439)上涨0.49%，成分股上海石化(600688)上涨 4.00%，兰石重装(603169)上涨2.27%，中国海油(600938)上涨2.25%，中国石油(601857)上涨1.69%，华 锦股份(000059)上涨1.55%。油气ETF(159697)上涨0.25%， 冲击7连涨。最新价报1.19元，跟踪指数最新 股息率3.99%。 油气ETF紧密跟踪国证石油天然气指数，国证石油天然气指数反映沪深北交易所石油天然气产业相关上 市公司的证券价格变化情况。 数据显示，截至2025年11月28日，国证石油天然气指数(399439)前十大权重股分别为中国石油 (601857)、中国石化(600028)、中国海油(600938)、杰瑞股份(002353)、广汇能源(600256)、招商轮船 (601872)、新奥股份(600803)、中远海能(600026)、大众公用(600635)、海油工程(600583)，前十大权重 股合计占比65.78%。 油气ETF(159697)，场外联接(A：019827；C：019828；I：022861) 消息面 ...

Core Insights - The National Petroleum and Natural Gas Index (399439) has seen an increase of 0.78% as of December 4, 2025, with significant gains in constituent stocks such as Dazhong Public Utilities (600635) up 5.22% and Hengtong Co., Ltd. (603223) up 4.47% [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The oil and gas ETF (159697) rose by 0.86%, with the latest price reported at 1.17 yuan [1] - The index reflects the price changes of publicly listed companies related to the oil and gas industry in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Analysis - According to Tianfeng Securities, if OPEC resumes production increases in Q2 2026, the global supply increment is expected to be 1.93 million barrels per day, which is an increase of 930,000 barrels per day compared to the surplus in 2025 [1] - If OPEC does not resume production throughout 2026, the expected global supply increment would be 1.65 million barrels per day, an increase of 650,000 barrels per day compared to the surplus in 2025 [1] Group 3: Key Constituents - As of November 28, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the National Petroleum and Natural Gas Index include China National Petroleum (601857), Sinopec (600028), and China National Offshore Oil (600938), collectively accounting for 65.78% of the index [2]