FXStreet 分析师 HareshMenghani 提到，降息预期已被大量消化，黄金多头在决议前异常谨慎，不敢贸 然上攻。 Kitco 首席分析师 JimWyckoff 指出，当前金价处于 4180 - 4250 美元的核心震荡区间，4180 - 4200 美元 是关键支撑位，一旦跌破可能引发技术性抛盘，而 4250 - 4260 美元则是坚实阻力位，需放量突破才能 打开上涨空间。 瑞银预计降息预期可能推动金价在明年达到 4500 美元 / 盎司。 美国银行预测明年黄金价格最高可达 5000 美元 / 盎司，较当前水平上涨约 19%。 CrescatCapital 的宏观策略师 Tavi Costa 给出极端长线预测，在全球去美元化和债务膨胀背景下，金价可 能重估至 2.5 万甚至 5 万美元，以此恢复美国黄金储备与国债规模的历史平衡。 期货公司观点 广发期货： 美国经济运行和就业市场持续受到政府"关门"和贸易摩擦的冲击，然而随着美联储内部分歧较大并释放 鹰派信号使短期政策不确定性增加。地缘政治、金融机构"爆雷"等风险事件频发，更多央行增持黄金， 投资者重塑资产定价体系对金融属性强的商品货币的配置比例仍将 ...

Core Viewpoint - Foreign investors are diversifying their portfolios and reducing their holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds due to concerns over rising deficits and inflationary tariffs, which are diminishing the attractiveness of U.S. debt [2][4]. Group 1: U.S. Treasury Bonds and Foreign Investment - The U.S. national debt has quadrupled to approximately $36 trillion in less than a decade, with public holdings around $29 trillion [3]. - In April, foreign capital saw a net outflow of $14.2 billion from U.S. Treasury bonds and the banking system, influenced by Trump's tariff policies [2][3]. - Japan is the largest foreign holder of U.S. debt at $1.13 trillion, followed by the UK at $807.7 billion and China at $757.2 billion [3]. Group 2: Impact of U.S. Fiscal Policy - The Congressional Budget Office estimates that Trump's tax cuts and spending measures will increase U.S. debt by $3.3 trillion, leading to a downgrade in the U.S. credit rating by Moody's [2]. - The Senate is expected to pass a bill that may save $500 billion by using alternative calculations that do not account for the extension of the 2017 tax cuts [4]. Group 3: Shift to European and Other Markets - European bonds, particularly German and French debt, are becoming more attractive to investors as U.S. deficits expand, with Germany maintaining a debt-to-GDP ratio below 100% [4]. - The market for German bonds is expected to strengthen, creating better opportunities for equity markets and increasing the issuance of risk-free German and pan-European bonds [4]. Group 4: Long-term Trends in Investment Behavior - Foreign investors are reducing their U.S. Treasury holdings as part of a long-term structural trend towards diversification rather than a sudden withdrawal [5]. - Concerns over U.S. risk premiums are anticipated to lead to a steepening of the U.S. Treasury yield curve, as investors demand higher returns for holding U.S. debt [6].