[Table_Page] 宏观经济研究报告 2026 年 2 月 2 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 广发宏观 高频数据下的 1 月经济：价格篇 | 分析师： [Tabl | 郭磊 | 分析师： | 贺骁束 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | e_Author] | SAC 执证号：S0260516070002 | | SAC 执证号：S0260517030003 | | | SFC CE.no: BNY419 | | | | | 021-38003572 | | 021-38003589 | | | guolei@gf.com.cn | | hexiaoshu@gf.com.cn | | | 请注意，贺骁束并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注册持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 | | | [Table_Summary] 报告摘要： 1 月生意社 BPI 升至一年来高位。本月格陵兰岛、中东等地缘事件频发，全球地缘政治威胁指数月均值环比上 行 66.3%，避险情绪与地缘溢价推动大宗商品价格；月末受风险偏好回摆影响，贵金属价格高位巨震。截至 1 月 30 日，生意社 BPI ...

Group 1 - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) has risen for 15 consecutive days, reaching a closing value of 2845 points on December 3, marking a 9.42% increase in a single day, the largest daily gain in nearly two months [5][6] - The cumulative increase of the BDI over this period is 40.15%, indicating a significant upward trend in dry bulk shipping rates [5] - Analysts from Changjiang Securities predict that the dry bulk shipping industry is at a turning point, with three main catalysts for demand: the production of the West Mundu iron ore mine, potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and ongoing infrastructure projects [5] Group 2 - The average stock price increase for shipping and port concept stocks this year is 17.41%, with notable performers like Haixia Co., which has seen a stock price increase of 89.83% [7] - Institutional interest in Haixia Co. remains high, with 33 institutions conducting research on the company, while other companies like China Merchants Port have also attracted significant institutional attention [7] - The shipping industry is experiencing a recovery in performance, with companies like Antong Holdings and Jinjiang Shipping reporting net profits in the first three quarters that exceed their projected full-year profits for 2024 [8] Group 3 - Several shipping and port concept stocks are expected to see growth in their annual performance, with at least five institutions predicting an increase in net profits for 2025 [8][9] - Specific companies such as China Merchants Shipping, COSCO Shipping Energy, and Zhonggu Logistics are highlighted for their positive growth forecasts, with expected net profit growth rates ranging from 3.79% to 21.41% [9]

通过港口、运价、经济景气度、韩国出口等高频追踪出口景气度。 文：国金宏观宋雪涛/联系人孙永乐 特朗普的"对等关税"和随之而来的"90天暂缓"让二季度的中国外贸形势变得复杂，我们梳理了一些可 以有效跟踪美国进口和中国出口节奏的 高频指标。 第一类：中美港口数据 一是美国主要港口的进口集装箱吞吐量。 易得的美国港口数据包括洛杉矶港进口集装箱吞吐量（周度）、洛杉矶港、长滩港、纽约新泽西港的集 装箱月度吞吐量数据。 截至4月19日，洛杉矶港口进口集装箱吞吐量同比增长8.6%，依旧处于相对高位。另外，部分机构也 会发布航运相关数据，如全美零售联合会预估美国7月集装箱进口量将减少27%，8月减少28%。 二是中国的港口货物和集装箱吞吐量 。 中国交通运输部每周公布港口完成货物和集装箱吞吐量数据。从历史数据看， 货物吞吐量同比增速与 中国进出口同比增速之间的相关性比较高 。 截至4月20日，4月中国港口完成货物、集装箱吞吐量同比分别增长4.4%、7.5%，3月为4.2%、 8.9%，港口货运依旧维持韧性，并未失速。 第二类：集装箱运价数据 一是中国公布的出口集装箱运价指数（ CCFI ）以及主要航线的集装箱运价指数，在一定 ...