Group 1 - The "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill signed by President Trump aims to repeal several energy tax incentives from the Biden era, including the 45V hydrogen production tax credit, which will end by December 31, 2025, seven years earlier than planned [1] - The 45V tax credit allows for a tax incentive of up to $3 per kilogram for clean hydrogen production for projects that meet emission standards and start construction before 2033 [1] - The U.S. hydrogen centers have urged Congress to retain and strengthen the 45V tax credit, warning that its early termination could jeopardize clean hydrogen projects, hundreds of thousands of jobs, and an estimated $140 billion in economic benefits [1] Group 2 - If the 45V tax credit is canceled, U.S. clean and low-carbon hydrogen projects will rely solely on the 45Q tax credit, which provides up to $85 per ton for permanently sequestered carbon dioxide [2] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that global clean hydrogen supply investments will reach approximately $7.8 billion in 2025, with $6 billion allocated for electrolysis projects [2] Group 3 - Current green hydrogen lacks economies of scale and is not cost-competitive, with a timeline of 5 to 7 years needed for improvement, as stated by the CEO of Linde [3] - The uncertainty surrounding hydrogen policies is not unique to the U.S., as the EU's Renewable Energy Directive III has yet to be implemented by member states, despite requiring a significant increase in renewable hydrogen usage by 2030 and 2035 [3] - Woodside believes that the U.S. can become a major supplier of low-carbon hydrogen and ammonia to Europe, which will need substantial imports [3] Group 4 - Despite multiple green hydrogen projects being canceled, IEA data indicates a 60% increase in global hydrogen investment in 2024, with potential clean hydrogen production capacity reaching 7.5 million tons by 2035 if all final investment decisions are executed [4] - The Hydrogen Council forecasts that under current policies, clean hydrogen demand in the U.S., Europe, and East Asia could reach 8 million tons per year by 2030, with potential demand increasing by an additional 26 million tons if infrastructure and policy support are strengthened [4] - Analysts emphasize the urgent need for clear policies, funding mechanisms, and long-term purchase agreements to support the clean hydrogen industry, as projects lacking substantial guarantees are unlikely to sustain [4]