菜籽油期货主力涨超4%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 机构 核心观点 南华期货 菜油仍处于去库阶段，基差维持强势 瑞达期货 菜油近期走势弱于豆棕，短期波动加剧 1月26日盘中，菜籽油期货主力合约遭遇一波急速上涨，最高上探至9356.00元。截止发稿，菜籽油主力 合约报9345.00元，涨幅4.08%。 加菜籽新作产量同比大幅增长，全球菜籽供应宽松，美国生物燃料政策提振加菜籽。市场对最终开放加 拿大菜籽进口持乐观态度，目前市场传言已出现加菜籽买船，但现货层面前期澳籽并未开始压榨，菜油 仍处于去库阶段，基差维持强势，后续仍需关注政策动向。 瑞达期货（002961）：菜油近期走势弱于豆棕，短期波动加剧 全球及加拿大菜籽供需格局相对宽松，继续牵制其市场价格。不过，加拿大总理卡尼访问期间与中国签 署了《中国-加拿大经贸合作路线图》，提振加拿大菜籽出口预期，支撑加菜籽市场。其它方面，美国 生柴消息利好，同时，高频数据显示，马棕本月供应端延续减产，且本月前二十日出口明显增加。另 外，印尼撤销28家公司许可证，涉及棕榈油种植园，引发对印棕供应的担忧。国内方面，现阶段油厂继 续处于停机状态，菜油也维持去库模式，对其价 ...

周二，BMD棕榈油上涨，受逢低买盘提振，但周边市场疲软限制了涨幅。今日MPOB报告将发布。机 构预计马棕油11月库存或攀升至266万吨，六年半高位。此外，市场也在关注10日发布的出口销售报 告，以评估12月的累库预期。国内方面，油脂价格集体走弱，菜籽油跌幅超过豆油和棕榈油。周四国储 豆拍卖，关注成交情况和拍卖结果。澳洲菜籽检验结果没有公布，但市场预期检验顺利，即将流入商业 领域压榨。相比之下，棕榈油变化不大，12月买船不多，下游需求变化也不多。策略上，卖看涨期权， 期货短线参与。 生猪： 周二，生猪期价延续反弹。生猪主力2603合约领涨，远期合约价格跟涨，期价延续偏强表现。现货市场 方面，因冬季猪病增加，元旦至春节前养殖亏损的预期会加重生猪去产能的预期，远期猪价获得支撑。 现货市场中，猪价稳定为主，多地猪价涨跌互现。今日全国外三元生猪出栏均价报11.23元/公斤，较昨 日上涨0.05元/公斤，其中新疆保持全国最低价10.54元/公斤，广东则升至最高价12.41元/公斤。 全国标 猪价格为11.23元/公斤，肥猪价格为11.76元/公斤，标肥价差为-0.53元/公斤。技术上，生猪远期合约在 供需预期改善和看涨情 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the CBOT November soybean contract rose 15.5 to close at 1058.25 cents per bushel, a 1.49% increase; the soybean meal 01 contract fell 49 to close at 3088 yuan per ton, a 1.56% decrease; the South China soybean meal spot price fell 30 to close at 2950 yuan per ton, a 1.01% decrease; the rapeseed meal 01 contract fell 3 to close at 2543 yuan per ton, a 0.12% decrease; the Guangxi rapeseed meal spot price rose 20 to close at 2550 yuan per ton, a 0.79% increase [4][7]. - U.S. soybeans fluctuated and rose, mainly driven by U.S. soybean oil. The exemption volume of biofuels for small refineries announced by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency was lower than expected, boosting the expected growth of biodiesel demand. Soybean meal fluctuated and declined during the week, mainly due to market news that imported reserve soybeans will be auctioned and released in November to ease the tight supply situation, leading to a reduction of long - position funds and a cooling of sentiment [4][7]. - The final report of the 2025 ProFarmer survey shows that since the number of soybean pods per unit sample in most production areas is higher than the same period last year, the expectation of a bumper harvest remains unchanged. The final yield is estimated to be 53 bushels per acre, lower than the 53.6 bushels per acre in the August USDA report. The precipitation in mid - to late August was lower than the average, so attention should still be paid to weather changes and the adjustment of September report data. The first shipment of Argentine soybean meal was diverted to other areas due to quality problems. There are expectations that imported reserve soybeans in China will be released in November, easing the expectation of tight supply in the distant future. However, short - term U.S. soybean purchases may be difficult to start, which supports the far - month contracts. After imposing policies on Canadian rapeseed imports, the import cost has increased. Last week, it was reported that COFCO restarted Australian rapeseed purchases since 2020, with a shipping date of November. Overall, short - term Dalian soybean meal may fluctuate [4][12]. Summary by Directory Market Data - The CBOT November soybean contract rose 15.5 to 1058.25 cents per bushel, a 1.49% increase; the CNF import price of Brazilian soybeans rose 1 to 490 dollars per ton, a 0.20% increase; the CNF import price of U.S. Gulf soybeans rose 14 to 470 dollars per ton, a 3.07% increase; the Brazilian soybean crushing profit on the futures market decreased 46.71 to - 63.99 yuan per ton; the DCE soybean meal 01 contract fell 49 to 3088 yuan per ton, a 1.56% decrease; the CZCE rapeseed meal 01 contract fell 3 to 2543 yuan per ton, a 0.12% decrease; the soybean - rapeseed meal price difference decreased 46 to 545 yuan per ton; the East China spot price of soybean meal fell 20 to 3000 yuan per ton, a 0.66% decrease; the South China spot price of soybean meal fell 30 to 2950 yuan per ton, a 1.01% decrease; the South China spot - futures price difference increased 19 to - 138 yuan per ton [5]. Market Analysis and Outlook - U.S. soybeans fluctuated and rose due to the boost of U.S. soybean oil, while soybean meal fluctuated and declined due to the expected release of imported reserve soybeans in November [4][7]. - The ProFarmer survey shows high pod numbers in most U.S. soybean - producing areas, with a final yield estimate of 53 bushels per acre, lower than the USDA report. The U.S. soybean excellent - good rate as of August 17 was 68%, the flowering rate was 95%, and the pod - setting rate was 82%. About 9% of the planting area was affected by drought as of August 19, and future precipitation is expected to be lower than average [8][9]. - As of August 14, the current - market - year net export sales of U.S. soybeans were - 0.6 million tons, and the cumulative export sales in the 2024/2025 season reached 51.06 million tons, completing the USDA target. The net export sales of U.S. soybeans in the 2025/2026 season were 1.143 million tons, with cumulative sales of 5.86 million tons, and China has not purchased new - crop U.S. soybeans [9]. - As of August 15, the U.S. soybean crushing gross profit was 2.62 dollars per bushel, the 48% protein soybean meal spot price in Illinois was 287.98 dollars per short - ton, the soybean oil truck quote in Illinois was 53.49 cents per pound, and the average price of No. 1 yellow soybeans was 10.39 dollars per bushel [10]. - Brazil's soybean export volume in August is expected to reach 8.9 million tons, and the soybean meal export volume is expected to reach 2.33 million tons [10]. - As of August 15, the main oil mills' soybean inventory was 6.804 million tons, the soybean meal inventory was 1.0147 million tons, and the unexecuted contracts were 5.7562 million tons. The national port soybean inventory was 8.926 million tons. As of August 22, the national weekly average daily trading volume of soybean meal was 168,680 tons, the daily average pick - up volume was 194,040 tons, the main oil mills' crushing volume was 2.27 million tons, and the feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory days were 8.51 days [11]. Industry News - Brazil's soybean exports in the first two weeks of August reached 5.17167139 million tons, with a daily average export volume 29% higher than that of August last year [13]. - As of August 10, Canada's rapeseed export volume increased 864.4% to 254,600 tons compared with the previous week. From August 1 to August 10, 2025, Canada's rapeseed export volume was 254,600 tons, a 33.6% decrease compared with the same period last year, and the commercial inventory was 940,200 tons [13]. - The expansion of Brazil's soybean planting area in the 2025/2026 season will be the smallest in recent years. Analysts' forecasts for the planting area growth range from 1.2% to 2.9%, and the production forecasts range from 166.56 million tons to 178.2 million tons [14]. - Brazil's competition management agency plans to investigate the signatories of the "Soybean Moratorium Plan", and the Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters will appeal [15]. - Australia's rapeseed exports in June 2025 decreased significantly to 102,064 tons, and monthly exports are unlikely to exceed 150,000 tons before November [15]. - As of August 17, the EU's palm oil, soybean, soybean meal, and rapeseed imports in the 2025/2026 season decreased compared with last year [16]. - The U.S. Soybean Association urged the Trump administration to reopen the Chinese market [16]. Relevant Charts - The report provides charts on the trends of U.S. soybean contracts, Brazilian soybean CNF prices, ocean freight, RMB exchange rates, regional crushing profits, management funds' net positions in CBOT, soybean meal contract trends, regional soybean meal spot prices, etc. [18][20][22]