豆粕周报 2025 年 8 月 25 日 政策消息扰动市场 连粕震荡回落 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 11 ⚫ 上周，CBOT美豆11月合约涨15.5收于1058.25美分/蒲式耳， 涨幅1.49%；豆粕01合约跌49收于3088元/吨，跌幅1.56%； 华南豆粕现货跌30收于2950元/吨，跌幅1.01%；菜粕01合 约跌3收于2543元/吨，跌幅0.12%；广西菜粕现货涨20收于 255 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Oils and Fats: Oscillating Bullish [7] - Protein Meal: Oscillating [8] - Corn/Starch: Oscillating Bearish [9] - Live Pigs: Oscillating [10] - Natural Rubber: Oscillating [10] - Synthetic Rubber: Oscillating [13] - Cotton: Oscillating [14] - Sugar: Oscillating [15] - Pulp: Oscillating [16] - Logs: Oscillating Bearish [17] 2. Core Views of the Report - The oils and fats market is affected by multiple factors, and it is likely to operate strongly in the near future under the stabilization of market sentiment [2][3][7]. - The protein meal market shows a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength, with the far - month contracts expected to strengthen [8]. - The corn/starch market is currently in a weak state, with short - term uncertainties in old crop de - stocking and a downward trend after new crop listing [9][10]. - The live pig market presents a situation of "weak reality + strong expectation", with high inventory pressure in the short - term and potential supply reduction in the long - term [10]. - The natural rubber market rebounds due to some speculative sentiment, and the short - term performance is expected to follow the macro - wide fluctuations [10][12]. - The synthetic rubber market is supported by the short - term tightness of butadiene, and it is expected to maintain range - bound oscillations [13]. - The cotton market returns to fundamental trading, with the price expected to oscillate within a certain range [14]. - The sugar market is under downward pressure due to the increasing supply pressure [15]. - The pulp market remains weak, and the strategy is to pay attention to the reverse spread during the decline [16]. - The log market has limited fundamental changes and is mainly treated within a range [17][18]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats - **Logic**: Affected by factors such as short - covering, US policy uncertainty, OPEC+ production increase, good growth of US soybeans, and the production and inventory situation of palm oil and rapeseed oil [2][7]. - **Outlook**: It is likely to operate strongly in the near future, and attention should be paid to the performance of upper technical resistance [3][7]. 3.2 Protein Meal - **Logic**: Internationally, the good rate of US soybeans is 69%, and there are still weather risks. Domestically, the short - term supply is sufficient, and there may be a supply gap in the long - term [8]. - **Outlook**: The spot and basis may oscillate at a low level, and the far - month contracts are expected to strengthen [8]. 3.3 Corn/Starch - **Logic**: The supply side has inventory digestion and import auction issues, and the demand side has low acceptance of high - priced grains. The new crop situation is normal [9][10]. - **Outlook**: There are uncertainties in short - term old crop de - stocking, and there is a downward trend after new crop listing [10]. 3.4 Live Pigs - **Logic**: The supply is strong in the short, medium, and long - term, and the demand is weak. The policy has a guiding effect on capacity reduction [10]. - **Outlook**: The market presents a "weak reality + strong expectation" pattern, and attention should be paid to reverse spread strategies [10]. 3.5 Natural Rubber - **Logic**: Driven by some speculative sentiment, the short - term fundamentals have no major contradictions [10][12]. - **Outlook**: The short - term performance follows the overall commodity sentiment, and attention should be paid to capital sentiment [12]. 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **Logic**: Supported by the short - term tightness of butadiene, the raw material market is in a weak downward trend [13]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to maintain range - bound oscillations, and attention should be paid to device changes [13]. 3.7 Cotton - **Logic**: The supply is expected to be loose, the demand is in the off - season, and the inventory is at a low level. The price oscillates within a certain range [14]. - **Outlook**: The single - side oscillates, and the range operation is recommended. The reverse spread of the monthly difference is stopped profit at the stage [14]. 3.8 Sugar - **Logic**: The global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus in the 25/26 season, and the short - term supply pressure increases [15]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate weakly in the long - term, and the short - term strategy is to short on rebounds [15]. 3.9 Pulp - **Logic**: The supply pressure of hardwood pulp is high, the demand is weak, and the overseas market is also weak. The price is expected to oscillate within a range [16]. - **Outlook**: The recent fluctuations follow the macro - situation, and it is expected to oscillate widely [16]. 3.10 Logs - **Logic**: The cost increases, the supply pressure eases, and there are both long and short factors in the market [17][18]. - **Outlook**: The fundamentals change little, and it is mainly operated within the range of 800 - 850 [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Last week, the BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract fell 40 to close at 4,276 ringgit/ton, a decline of 0.93%; the palm oil 09 contract fell 28 to close at 8,936 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.31%; the soybean oil 09 contract fell 16 to close at 8,144 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.2%; the rapeseed oil 09 contract fell 129 to close at 9,457 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.35%; the CBOT US soybean oil main contract rose 0.34 to close at 55.92 cents/pound, an increase of 0.61%; the ICE canola active contract rose 1 to close at 699.9 Canadian dollars/ton, an increase of 0.14% [3][6]. - The domestic oil and fat sector fluctuated slightly lower, with rapeseed oil performing the weakest. The implementation of Indonesia's biodiesel policy, low ending inventory, and potential Indian import demand support palm oil. The continuous expansion of US crushing capacity and expected increase in biodiesel demand boost the soybean oil market. The good rapeseed production prospects in Canada and the EU suppress rapeseed oil. Malaysian palm oil production continued to increase in July, with exports weakening month - on - month, limiting the space for continuous rise, and more long - position funds taking profits, resulting in an overall volatile operation [3][6]. - Macroscopically, after the US reached trade agreements with Indonesia, the Philippines, Japan and other countries, it difficultly reached a tariff agreement with the EU, alleviating market concerns about trade sentiment. China and the US will hold economic and trade negotiations in Sweden. The US stock market fluctuated strongly, the US dollar index fluctuated at a low level, and oil prices fluctuated narrowly. Fundamentally, although supported by the medium - and long - term growth expectations of biodiesel demand in Indonesia and the US, the increasing production of Malaysian palm oil and weakening demand may limit the increase in the short term. Palm oil may fluctuate at a high level in the short term [3][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Data - The report presents the prices, price changes, and price change rates of multiple contracts (CBOT soybean oil main contract, BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract, DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, CZCE rapeseed oil) from July 18th to July 25th, as well as the spot prices of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil in different regions and their changes [4]. 3.2 Market Analysis and Outlook - **Production Data**: According to UOB, as of July 20th, Malaysian palm oil production is expected to increase by 5 - 9%. MPOA data shows that from July 1 - 20th, production increased by 11.24% compared to the same period last month. SPPOMA data shows that from July 1 - 20th, 2025, the fresh fruit bunch yield increased by 7.03%, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.16%, and palm oil production increased by 6.19% [7]. - **Export Data**: According to ITS, Malaysia's palm oil exports from July 1 - 25th decreased by 9.2% compared to the same period last month. AmSpec data shows a 15.22% month - on - month decrease. SGS data shows a 35.99% decrease in exports from July 1 - 20th compared to the same period last month. Indonesia's palm oil exports increased significantly in May and June, with exports to India and China rising strongly. MPOB expects Malaysia's palm oil production and exports to increase in 2025, while GAPKI expects Indonesia's exports to decline [8][9]. - **Inventory and Demand Data**: As of July 18th, the total inventory of the three major oils in key domestic regions increased. The weekly average daily trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil decreased slightly. Although there is long - term support from biodiesel demand in Indonesia and the US, the increasing production and weakening demand of Malaysian palm oil may limit price increases in the short term [10]. 3.3 Industry News - The FAO's "2025 - 34 Agricultural Outlook" points out that due to sustainability issues and the aging of oil palm trees in Indonesia and Malaysia, the growth rate of global palm oil production is expected to slow, with a projected annual growth rate of 0.8% [11]. - India has become Malaysia's largest importer of oil palm seeds, and its demand for Malaysian palm oil has increased significantly. MPOC expects the price of crude palm oil to be between 4,100 - 4,300 ringgit next month, and India is expected to import about 2.9 million tons of palm oil in the third quarter to meet festival demand [11][12]. - Indonesia's Ministry of Finance expects an increase in palm oil product exports to the EU in the second half of 2025, as the IEU - CEPA agreement and the US tariff reduction policy will create opportunities for Indonesian exports [12]. 3.4 Relevant Charts - The report provides multiple charts showing the price trends of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil in futures and spot markets, as well as the production, exports, inventory, and import profits of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia [13][18][21] etc.

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives individual outlooks for different agricultural products, including "oscillating" for most products, "oscillating and declining" for corn and starch, and "oscillating weakly" for logs [5][6][7]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Most agricultural products are expected to oscillate in the short - term, with different influencing factors for each product. The market is affected by various factors such as weather, supply and demand, trade relations, and macro - economic conditions [5][6][7]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Oils and Fats - **View**: The growth of US soybeans is good, and market sentiment has weakened. - **Logic**: As of July 13, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 70%, higher than expected. The US foreign trade tension has increased, and the US dollar rose on Monday. The expected increase in US biodiesel demand for US soybean oil and the increase in the biodiesel blending ratio in Brazil are positive factors. However, the large arrival volume of imported soybeans in China and the expected increase in palm oil production in Malaysia are negative factors. - **Outlook**: The oil market is expected to continue to oscillate and differentiate in the near future [5]. 3.1.2 Protein Meals - **View**: The good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans is higher than expected, and US soybeans are weaker than Dalian soybean meal. - **Logic**: International trade tensions are high. US soybeans are growing smoothly, but the export prospects are worrying. Brazilian soybean exports are still high. In China, the supply pressure dominates the weakness of the spot market, but concerns about Sino - US trade support the futures price. - **Outlook**: The domestic double - meal futures are stronger than US soybeans, and the domestic futures market is stronger than the spot market. The basis is expected to weaken. In the short - term, it will oscillate within a range, and in the long - term, it will be bullish [6]. 3.1.3 Corn/Starch - **View**: Pay attention to the risk of a periodic rebound. - **Logic**: The supply of ports and deep - processing enterprises has decreased slightly. The futures price rebounded slightly during the day and then fell back. The cumulative auction volume of imported corn is 137 million tons, and the transaction volume is about 82 million tons. - **Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate and decline in the short - term [7]. 3.1.4 Pigs - **View**: Supply and demand are stable, and pig prices oscillate. - **Logic**: In the short - term, large pigs are still being sold off, but the average weight has bottomed out and rebounded. The planned slaughter volume of group farms in July has decreased. In the medium - term, the number of new - born piglets from January to May 2025 has increased, and the slaughter volume is expected to increase in the second half of the year. In the long - term, the production capacity is still high. - **Outlook**: The reform expectation on the supply side boosts the sentiment of pig futures. The price is expected to oscillate, but there is still supply pressure in the medium - and long - term [9]. 3.1.5 Natural Rubber - **View**: It runs oscillating and strongly. - **Logic**: It is affected by capital sentiment at night and then adjusts with the market during the day. The trading logic follows the macro - sentiment. The supply in Asian producing areas is limited due to the rainy season, and the demand from tire enterprises has recovered. - **Outlook**: It may follow the overall commodity fluctuations before the fundamental situation provides guidance [11][13]. 3.1.6 Synthetic Rubber - **View**: The futures price oscillates within a range. - **Logic**: It follows the movement of natural rubber and the overall commodity market, but the amplitude is limited. There is no obvious upward driving force, but there is support from the macro - environment and the improvement of butadiene trading. - **Outlook**: It is expected to continue to oscillate within a range, and attention should be paid to device changes [14]. 3.1.7 Cotton - **View**: Cotton prices fluctuate within a narrow range. - **Logic**: According to the USDA's static balance sheet for the 25/26 season, the global, Chinese, and US cotton markets are all loose. The expected increase in Xinjiang's cotton production and the weak demand in the off - season are negative factors. However, the low inventory before the new cotton is listed provides support. - **Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with a reference range of 13,500 - 14,300 yuan/ton. There is a risk of price decline when a large amount of new cotton is listed [15]. 3.1.8 Sugar - **View**: Pay attention to import changes. - **Logic**: In the medium - and long - term, sugar prices are weak and under downward pressure due to the expected oversupply in the 25/26 season. In the short - term, the decline in Brazil's sugar production and the high sales - to - production ratio in China support the price, but the increase in Brazil's production and exports and China's imports will increase the supply pressure. - **Outlook**: In the long - term, sugar prices are expected to oscillate weakly; in the short - term, they are expected to oscillate [17]. 3.1.9 Pulp - **View**: The macro - environment dominates the trend, and pulp prices are rising within a range. - **Logic**: The futures price rises with the macro - atmosphere. The supply and demand are in a stalemate, and the upward driving force comes from the macro - environment. The low US dollar price, high overseas pulp mill inventory, and weak downstream demand limit the upward space. - **Outlook**: The pulp futures are expected to oscillate due to the warm macro - atmosphere, weak supply - demand guidance, and low absolute valuation [18]. 3.1.10 Logs - **View**: The outbound volume has declined, and the inventory has increased. - **Logic**: The new - week outbound volume of logs has decreased, and the inventory has increased. The spot price is weak due to the impact of deliverable goods. The cost of both buyers and sellers has increased during the 07 delivery. The overall demand for logs this year is stable, and the inventory - reduction rhythm is slow. - **Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate weakly around the delivery cost in the short - term [19]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - The report mentions variety data monitoring for oils and fats, corn and starch, pigs, cotton and yarn, sugar, pulp, and logs, but no specific data content is provided in the given text.

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Oils and Fats**: Oscillating with a slight upward bias [8] - **Protein Meal**: Oscillating [9] - **Corn and Starch**: Oscillating [10][11] - **Hogs**: Oscillating [11] - **Natural Rubber**: Oscillating [12][13] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Oscillating [15] - **Cotton**: Oscillating [15] - **Sugar**: Oscillating in the short - term, with a long - term downward bias [16] - **Pulp**: Oscillating [17] - **Logs**: Oscillating with a slight downward bias [18] 2. Core Views of the Report - The oils and fats market is influenced by factors such as optimistic overseas biodiesel demand, good growth of US soybeans, and reduced marginal production pressure of Malaysian palm oil in June. It is expected to continue oscillating and differentiating, with palm oil remaining relatively strong [8]. - The protein meal market is a mix of long and short factors. US soybeans are expected to maintain range - bound oscillations, and domestic soybean meal inventories continue to accumulate [9]. - The corn market has local weakness in spot prices, and futures prices are oscillating at low levels. US corn is expected to continue its downward trend [10][11]. - The hog market has short - term positive sentiment due to macro - regulation, but there is supply pressure in the medium and long term. Attention should be paid to inventory rhythm changes and supply - side adjustments [11]. - The natural rubber market is in a range - bound oscillation. It is currently in a state where supply has an incremental expectation but demand has a decreasing expectation, and it is less likely to experience a sharp decline in the third quarter [13]. - The synthetic rubber market is expected to maintain range - bound oscillations, and attention should be paid to device changes [15]. - The cotton market has an expected increase in production in the new season, and the demand is in the off - season. The current commercial inventory is low, so the old - crop contracts are expected to be resistant to declines, and the upward space of the market is restricted in the medium term [15]. - The sugar market is expected to have a loose supply in the new season, with a downward driving force for sugar prices in the long term and an oscillating trend in the short term [16]. - The pulp market has a weak supply - demand situation, but the absolute valuation is not high. It is expected that the pulp futures will oscillate [17]. - The log market has short - term pressure on the circulation of delivery products, and the spot price is expected to remain weakly stable. The medium - term market is expected to operate in the range of 760 - 830 [18][19]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Oils and Fats - **Logic**: Due to good weather in US soybean - producing areas, US soybeans fell on Tuesday, while US soybean oil oscillated slightly upward. Domestic oils showed oscillating differentiation, with palm oil being strong and rapeseed oil and soybean oil being weak. The market is concerned about US foreign trade negotiations and the EIA's downward adjustment of the US crude oil production forecast for 2025. US soybeans are growing well, and the demand for US soybean oil in US biodiesel is expected to increase. Brazil will raise the biodiesel blending ratio. The import volume of domestic soybeans is large, and the inventory of domestic soybean oil is rising. The expected increase in palm oil production in Malaysia in June is limited, and the export is expected to be good. The inventory of domestic rapeseed oil is slowly decreasing but still at a high level [8]. - **Outlook**: The oils and fats market is affected by multiple factors and is expected to continue oscillating and differentiating in the near future, with palm oil remaining relatively strong [8]. 3.1.2 Protein Meal - **Logic**: Trump extended the "reciprocal tariff" suspension period. US soybeans are growing well, and China mainly purchases Brazilian soybeans. The supply of domestic soybean meal is increasing, and the inventory is accumulating. The demand for downstream replenishment is insufficient, but the long - term consumption of soybean meal is expected to be stable or increase slightly [9]. - **Outlook**: US soybeans are expected to maintain range - bound oscillations. Domestic soybean meal inventories continue to accumulate. Oil mills can sell on rallies, and downstream enterprises can buy basis contracts or fix prices on dips. One can buy and hold at around 2900 [9]. 3.1.3 Corn - **Logic**: Futures prices are oscillating at low levels, and the bearish sentiment has been released. The number of waiting vehicles at North China's deep - processing enterprises has decreased, and the procurement price of terminal grain - using enterprises has been lowered. The import of corn by auction has a certain turnover rate, and the supply of wheat and imported corn is increasing. US corn is in good condition, but speculative funds are selling [10][11]. - **Outlook**: Corn is expected to oscillate in the short term. Attention should be paid to the inventory reduction of corn and the substitution of wheat [10][11]. 3.1.4 Hogs - **Logic**: In the short term, the macro - regulation has brought positive sentiment, and the pressure on group - farm slaughter has been partially released. In the medium and long term, the supply is still under pressure due to sufficient sows and increasing piglet births. The price of fat pigs has decreased, and the inventory situation is divided [11]. - **Outlook**: The hog market is expected to oscillate. Attention should be paid to the implementation of capacity reduction [11]. 3.1.5 Natural Rubber - **Logic**: The natural rubber market is in a range - bound oscillation. The supply in Asian producing areas is affected by the rainy season, and the arrival of ships in July and August is expected to be less. The demand of some tire enterprises has recovered, but the long - term demand is expected to be weak. There may be inventory - reduction trading in the third quarter, and it is less likely to experience a sharp decline [13]. - **Outlook**: Before the fundamentals provide guidance, it may continue to fluctuate with the overall commodity market [13]. 3.1.6 Synthetic Rubber - **Logic**: The BR futures rose rapidly due to a refinery fire, but the refinery does not produce BR delivery products. The butadiene price has been falling, and the supply - demand contradiction is prominent. Although there is some support for the market, the overall performance is weak [15]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to maintain range - bound oscillations, and attention should be paid to device changes [15]. 3.1.7 Cotton - **Logic**: There is an expected increase in cotton production in China and other major producing countries in the new season. The demand is in the off - season, and the inventory of textile products is increasing. The commercial inventory of cotton is at a low level, and the old - crop contracts are expected to be resistant to declines. The upward space of the market is restricted in the medium term [15]. - **Outlook**: The cotton price is expected to oscillate in the short term, with a reference range of 13500 - 14300 yuan/ton [15]. 3.1.8 Sugar - **Logic**: The supply of the sugar market is expected to be loose in the new season. The production of Brazilian sugar may not meet expectations, and the monsoon in India is conducive to sugarcane growth. The domestic sugar market is in the pure - sales period, with a high sales - to - production ratio and low inventory. The import of sugar is expected to increase, and the supply pressure will gradually appear [16]. - **Outlook**: Sugar prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the long term and oscillate in the short term [16]. 3.1.9 Pulp - **Logic**: The pulp futures have rebounded slightly, but the spot market is weak. The supply - demand situation is weak, with high European port inventories, low monthly US - dollar prices, and weak downstream paper product sales. However, the absolute valuation of pulp is not high, and there is a risk in short - selling [17]. - **Outlook**: The pulp futures are expected to oscillate [17]. 3.1.10 Logs - **Logic**: The log market has short - term pressure on the circulation of delivery products, and the cost of both sellers and buyers in the delivery process has increased. The overall demand for logs this year is stable, and the inventory reduction is slow. The new foreign quotation has increased, and the supply reduction expectation in July and August is weakened [18][19]. - **Outlook**: The log market is expected to operate weakly and stably in the short term and oscillate in the range of 760 - 830 in the medium term [18][19]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring The report lists various varieties for data monitoring, including oils and fats, protein meal, corn, starch, hogs, cotton, sugar, pulp, and logs, but no specific data content is provided in the given text [21][40][53]. 3.3 Rating Standards The report provides rating standards for different trends, including "strong", "oscillating with a slight upward bias", "oscillating", "oscillating with a slight downward bias", and "weak", with a time period of 2 - 12 weeks and a standard deviation calculation method [170].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The short - term trading logic of the soybean market comes from weather themes and the prospects of Sino - US trade relations, with a continued staged rebound trend. The internal and external soybean futures prices are still in an upward - prone and downward - resistant pattern [5]. - Although there is disappointment about the lack of agricultural content in the details of the Sino - US trade agreement, soybean oil prices are supported by the latest policy expectations of the US Department of Energy. The short - term futures prices of US soybean oil stop falling and rebound, which drives up domestic soybean oil prices [7]. - The Malaysian palm oil inventory has increased for three consecutive months, putting pressure on the palm oil market. The domestic palm oil lacks its own driving force and fluctuates following the international oil market in the short term, with limited rebound space [8]. 3. Summary by Variety 3.1. Soybean Meal (M) - **View**: The intraday view is strongly volatile, and the medium - term view is sideways. The reference view is strongly volatile [5]. - **Core Logic**: Sino - US principles have reached an agreement framework, with positive expectations for US soybean exports. The US soybean futures prices continue to show weather - market volatility characteristics [5]. 3.2. Soybean Oil (Y) - **View**: The intraday view is strongly volatile, and the medium - term view is sideways. The reference view is strongly volatile [6][7]. - **Core Logic**: Driven by the latest policy expectations of the US Department of Energy, the futures prices of US soybean oil stop falling and rebound, bringing a linkage boost to domestic soybean oil prices [7]. 3.3. Palm Oil (P) - **View**: The intraday view is strongly volatile, and the medium - term view is sideways. The reference view is strongly volatile [6][8]. - **Core Logic**: The Malaysian palm oil inventory has increased for three consecutive months, and the market is under pressure. The domestic palm oil lacks its own driving force and fluctuates following the international oil market in the short term [8].