12月1日至5日，高盛开展中国核电（601985）技术虚拟调研，邀请中广核电力、中国核电、东方电气 （600875）、哈尔滨电气等8家核电产业链企业及1位行业专家参与交流。 综合调研反馈，高盛得出核 心结论：中国核电装机轨迹正日趋积极，而光伏板块前景则相对偏弱，同时明确了核电领域四大核心机 遇。 01 装机规模十年内或实现翻倍 02 三十年技术管线清晰 调研明确了未来三十年中国核电技术的发展脉络，不同代际技术将各司其职，助力双碳目标达成： 1、三代大型机组华龙一号：作为实现2035年核电目标的核心支撑，目前华龙一号已有41台机组获批， 其中7台已投运（国内5台、巴基斯坦2台），34台处于在建阶段。单台华龙一号年发电量超100亿千瓦 时，设计寿命60年，且可延长至80年。 2、三代小型模块堆玲龙一号：作为华龙一号的补充技术，由中核集团自主研发，预计2026年投运。尽 管单位资本开支较高，但具备多用途属性，可满足发电、城市供暖制冷、工业供汽、海水淡化等多元需 求，单台年发电量超10亿千瓦时，设计寿命60年。 3、四代反应堆：分两类技术路径实现差异化补能，一是高温气冷堆，其运行温度达500-600℃，远高于 二代压 ...

Group 1 - The United States remains the global leader in nuclear power generation with a total output of 781 billion kilowatt-hours, accounting for 18.9% of the national total generation, supported by an installed capacity of 96.95 gigawatts [1] - China ranks second with 58 operational units and a capacity of 60.88 gigawatts, but is significantly expanding its nuclear fleet with 27 units under construction, which raises concerns among Western observers [3] - The stagnation of nuclear power development in the U.S. is attributed to the high costs and long investment cycles associated with nuclear projects, as exemplified by the Vogtle units 3 and 4, which exceeded $30 billion in costs [3][5] Group 2 - China's nuclear expansion is driven by its strong industrial manufacturing capabilities, achieving a 100% localization rate for units like the Hualong One, reducing the unit cost to approximately 13,000 RMB per kilowatt [5] - The construction timeline for nuclear power plants in China has been shortened to 4 to 5 years, contrasting with the lengthy approval processes in the U.S. [5] - The operational efficiency of the aging U.S. nuclear fleet, with an average capacity factor exceeding 92%, highlights the effectiveness of asset management despite the age of the plants [5] Group 3 - The U.S. nuclear sector is shifting focus from large reactors to developing small modular reactors (SMRs), with projects like TerraPower's sodium-cooled fast reactor in Wyoming representing a strategic pivot [8] - While China has advantages in engineering, it faces challenges in original innovation and commercializing advanced nuclear technologies, such as high-temperature gas-cooled reactors and molten salt reactors [10] - The U.S. is forming exclusive nuclear supply chain alliances, which may pose risks for China, particularly regarding access to high-performance nuclear fuel and control chips amid geopolitical tensions [10][12]

Group 1: Artificial Intelligence - Artificial intelligence is viewed as a "golden goose," significantly contributing to the returns of major US stocks like Apple and Microsoft, with profit growth rates far exceeding other stocks, driving the S&P 500 index to rise over 20% for two consecutive years [2] - Companies like Nvidia dominate the AI infrastructure sector, with data center investments surging, and their data center revenue share expected to approach historical peaks by 2026 [2] - However, the high costs of training AI models and the risk of over-investment pose challenges, as evidenced by the performance of Corning's fiber optics business post-dot-com bubble [2] Group 2: Nuclear Energy - Investor optimism about nuclear power has led to stock price increases, supported by new US legislation aimed at accelerating nuclear development, such as the Advance Act which simplifies approval processes [3] - Despite this, significant cost overruns in nuclear projects, exemplified by the delays and instability of the Vogtle 3 nuclear plant in Georgia, raise concerns about the sector's viability [3] - The potential of small modular reactors remains unproven, with no such projects expected to commence in the US by 2025, and new nuclear designs still facing commercialization hurdles [3] Group 3: US Policy - The "Alchemist" policy includes regulatory rollbacks, tariff adjustments, and tax cuts, which could enhance productivity but contrasts sharply with the Biden administration's regulatory increases [4] - Imposing a 60% tariff on China and implementing broad tariffs could hinder US GDP growth, with potential retaliatory measures from China exacerbating trade tensions [4] - Challenges in reducing government spending persist, as welfare expenditures are high and discretionary spending is at a low, complicating efforts to cut the budget [4] Group 4: China - China faces liquidity challenges, including declining money supply growth, reduced loan demand, and an underperforming real estate market [5] - The intensifying US-China competition, particularly in technology and trade, poses risks to the valuation ceiling of MSCI China stocks, especially with restrictions on advanced chip supplies to China [5] Group 5: Europe - Europe's labor productivity lags behind the US, with high energy prices suppressing manufacturing output, particularly in energy-intensive industries [6] - The Eurozone's "one-size-fits-all" policy struggles to accommodate the diverse needs of member states, leading to lower corporate profitability compared to the US [6] Group 6: Cryptocurrency - Bitcoin's price rebound in 2024 is attributed to the US SEC's approval of spot ETFs, alongside a growing number of cryptocurrency account holders [7] - However, trading-centric tokens and decentralized finance activities remain highly speculative and closely tied to cryptocurrency price fluctuations, with US government support for the sector linked to political donations [7]