东方财富证券研究所 证券分析师：王笑笑 证书编号：S1160525020006 证券分析师：杨雅婷 证书编号：S1160525100004 宏观专题 地方两会系列（二）——重点工作如何 部署？ 2026 年 02 月 26 日 【宏观观点】 【风险提示】 挖掘价值 投资成长 联系人：李沅芷 相关研究 《地方两会系列（一）——经济增长目标》 2026.02.13 《纵深推进全国统一大市场建设的方向、 举措、效果推演——挖掘经济潜能系列一》 2026.01.25 《2026 年经济会有开门红吗》 2026.01.05 《延续稳中有进发展态势——11 月经济 数据解读》 2025.12.30 《特&马"将相和"，马斯克链王者归来》 2026.02.02 宏 截至 2026 年 2 月 5 日，地方两会已全部召开完毕，综合来看各地具 体部署，以下几个方面值得关注： 地方重点工作：一是供需协同发力，投资和消费结合；二是融通教育、 科创、人才与产业四链，加速科技在产业层面的落地应用；三是区域 协调发展和全国统一大市场建设。 投资：一是依托重点产业和重大项目进行投资布局，数字基建、人工 智能、量子科技、低空经济等是重点领域 ...

Group 1 - The article outlines seven major events expected to occur by 2026, including significant interest rate cuts in the US and China, the explosive growth of AI applications, and increased geopolitical tensions [2][3] - The AI revolution is in its early stages, with large-scale deployment of GPUs and computing centers leading to a significant drop in costs, resulting in the commercialization of super applications by 2026 [3][5] - The article emphasizes that AI is not just a trend but a transformative force, likening its impact to a tsunami rather than a mere windfall, marking the beginning of a fourth technological revolution [3][5] Group 2 - The upcoming bull market is driven by three strong forces: continuous monetary easing, a new wave of technological revolution, and ample liquidity, characterized as a confidence bull market [5][6] - The capital market is tasked with three historical missions: developing new productive forces, aiding in major power technological competition, and repairing household balance sheets [5] - The article encourages a long-term perspective, focusing on essential trends and making decisive actions rather than relying solely on hard work [7]

Group 1 - Ren Zeping predicts seven major events will occur in 2026: significant interest rate cuts in China and the US, explosive growth of AI super applications, the rise of China's AI capabilities, increased geopolitical tensions, a year of commodity boom, a confidence-driven bull market, and a bifurcation in the real estate market [3] - The AI revolution is in its early stages, with large-scale deployment of GPUs and computing centers leading to a significant drop in costs, resulting in the commercialization of super applications by 2026, including large models, AI agents, autonomous driving, AI healthcare, humanoid robots, brain-computer interfaces, commercial space travel, and satellite communication [4] - Countries are engaged in an AI race, initiating large-scale infrastructure capital expenditures that are driving up commodity prices, with silver, non-ferrous metals, energy, photovoltaics, and chemicals becoming increasingly important [5] Group 2 - The rapid development of AI is heavily reliant on computing power, which in turn depends on electricity; the pace of AI advancement is so fast that a month without updates can make one feel outdated, indicating a historical opportunity presented by the fourth technological revolution in the Kondratiev wave, occurring once every 60 years [6] - An AI bubble may temporarily arise but will ultimately be supported by future commercialization; opportunities typically go through four phases: invisible, undervalued, misunderstood, and too late [7] - The current capital market is tasked with three historical missions: developing new productive forces, aiding major power technological competition, and repairing household balance sheets [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impending global economic shifts, including de-dollarization, the rise of AI, and the cyclical nature of economic trends, predicting significant inflation and subsequent monetary tightening by 2026 [2][4][5]. Group 1: Economic Cycles - The article emphasizes the end of a century-long economic cycle, marked by the disintegration of the old order and the emergence of new challenges such as income inequality, populism, and geopolitical tensions [6][12]. - It highlights the fourth technological revolution driven by AI, which is expected to lead to substantial capital expenditure in new infrastructure and reshape wealth distribution and national power [6][18][19]. Group 2: Real Estate Market - The real estate sector is entering a phase of differentiation, with a predicted 20% of the population moving to core cities while 80% in lower-tier cities face prolonged declines [7][21]. - The article forecasts that 2026 will see a stabilization in the real estate market, contingent on policy support such as relaxed purchase restrictions and lower interest rates [22][23]. Group 3: Capacity Cycle - The capacity cycle is undergoing a transition, with traditional industries facing capacity reduction while new productive forces, particularly AI, drive large-scale infrastructure investments [24][27]. - The article notes that the capacity cycle has reached a turning point, with improvements in supply-demand dynamics and a recovery in prices and corporate profits expected [25][29]. Group 4: Inventory Cycle - The inventory cycle is transitioning from passive destocking to active restocking, although the recovery is expected to be weak due to ongoing industry differentiation and external uncertainties [29][30]. - The article anticipates a potential exit from deflation in 2026, driven by factors such as anti-involution policies and external inflationary pressures [30][31]. Group 5: Debt Cycle - The article discusses the ongoing challenges in the debt cycle, particularly the need for households to repair their balance sheets while new productive enterprises increase leverage [34][35]. - It emphasizes the necessity for fiscal and monetary policy adjustments to support new productive forces and stimulate economic recovery [39][41]. Group 6: Policy Outlook - The article outlines five key policy areas for 2026, including maintaining a moderately loose monetary policy, proactive fiscal measures, and supportive real estate policies aimed at stabilizing the market [46][48]. - It suggests that the focus will shift from merely preventing overheating in the real estate market to encouraging sustainable growth and addressing housing affordability [48][49]. Group 7: Asset Class Outlook - The article predicts a "confidence bull market" in the stock market, driven by technological advancements and a favorable policy environment, with a focus on sectors like AI, semiconductors, and renewable energy [51][52]. - It also anticipates a significant year for commodities, with expectations of rising prices due to de-dollarization and increased demand from the AI sector [53][54].

文 任泽平 本文提出未来十年中国经济的十大趋势，希望对大家看清未来的大势有帮助。 第二大趋势，人工智能的超级应用大爆发， AI 助手、无人驾驶、人形机器人、 AI 创新药、 AI 眼镜走进每个人的生活，成为经济的新增长点，引领新一轮康波周期，成为新一代年轻人人生逆 袭和财富逆袭的机会。 凭借完善强大的供应链和超大规模的市场优势， AI 超级应用场景将在中国大爆发，诞生出一批 新物种。中国力量崛起，国产替代，后发先至。中国拥有 14 亿人的庞大市场和软硬件一体化的 强大产业基础，有可能是全球人工智能革命最后最大的赢家。 我们每个人的成就都是时代的产物，顺势而为。时代造就英雄， 英雄顺应时代 。悲观者正确， 乐观者前行。 第一大趋势， 全球经济、贸易、科技、地缘秩序重新洗牌，未来十年将是大国博弈的关键期。 2025 年中国 GDP 规模为140.19 万亿元；2024年中国 GDP 规模为 135 万亿 元，中国发展潜力 大，未来有望成为第一大经济体。 全球处于大周期末期，旧秩序开始瓦解，新秩序正在重建，周期的钟摆从注重经济增长效率转向 平衡收入分配公平，这是一个大变革、大调整、大动荡、大转型的新时代。 未来十年 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report emphasizes the importance of high-quality development in urban manufacturing, highlighting the need for innovation, coordination, green practices, openness, and sharing as guiding principles for future growth in the sector [5][17]. Group 1: Opportunities and Challenges in Urban Manufacturing - Urban manufacturing is entering a new phase driven by innovation, with cities increasingly recognized as innovation hubs [13][14]. - The integration of smart, green, and collaborative practices is becoming a new direction for industrial upgrades, expanding growth opportunities in urban manufacturing [15]. - Urban manufacturing faces new challenges amid rapid transformation, including pressures to boost domestic demand and adapt to changing market conditions [16]. Group 2: Characteristics of Strong Manufacturing Cities - The distribution of strong manufacturing cities remains stable, with a notable concentration in the eastern region of China, while central regions are experiencing localized growth [22][25]. - Strong manufacturing cities are characterized by high-end, intelligent, and green development, leading to significant transformation outcomes [29][30]. - Technological innovation and industrial reform are driving forces, with strong cities concentrating innovation resources and achieving substantial advancements in key sectors [38][40]. Group 3: Issues in High-Quality Development - There are significant disparities in the quality of manufacturing development across regions, necessitating improved coordination and development levels [8][17]. - The efficiency of technology transfer and the proportion of basic research and original innovation remain relatively low, indicating areas for improvement [8][17]. - Structural contradictions in external openness and the need for enhanced effectiveness in foreign investment are evident [8][17]. Group 4: Outlook for Urban Manufacturing Development - Optimizing regional spatial layouts for manufacturing and focusing on collaborative development paths among key city clusters are essential for future growth [8][17]. - Building an integrated innovation ecosystem that connects industry, academia, research, finance, and application is crucial for enhancing the conversion of research outcomes [8][17]. - There is a strong emphasis on elevating levels of intelligence, greenness, and integration in manufacturing practices to drive deep industrial transformation [8][17].

Core Viewpoint - The South Finance Forum 2025 emphasizes the resilience and evolution of the Chinese economy, highlighting its unique competitive advantages and long-term investment potential despite short-term market fluctuations [1][4]. Economic Resilience and Complexity - China's economy is characterized as a vast ocean, underpinned by a large ecosystem and scale economy, which is crucial for understanding its resilience [4]. - As of the end of 2024, China's goods trade import and export value is projected to reach $6.16 trillion, maintaining its position as the world's largest for eight consecutive years [4]. - The country has over 1.4 billion people, with more than 400 million in the middle-income group, creating a substantial consumer market [4]. - China leads globally in new energy vehicle production and sales for nine consecutive years, as well as in wind and solar power capacity [4]. - The number of PhD graduates in STEM fields in China has surpassed that of the U.S. since 2007, with expectations to reach 77,000 by 2025, indicating a strong talent pool [4]. - The Economic Complexity Index suggests that China's economy has become one of the most complex globally, enhancing its resilience and adaptability to new trends [5]. Positive Changes in the Business Landscape - Two significant positive changes are occurring in the Chinese business sector: a generational transition in many companies and the emergence of young entrepreneurs, indicating a shift towards more dynamic and innovative management [6]. Investment Opportunities - A new upward cycle in investment is beginning, with a notable shift from "heavy financing" to "heavy investment" in the capital market, creating a more favorable environment for investors [8][15]. - The capital expenditure in new economies has turned positive since the end of 2024, indicating substantial expansion in high-end manufacturing, technological innovation, and green transformation [11]. Key Investment Themes for 2026 - Focus on emerging industries, particularly AI-driven technologies and new consumer products, which are expected to enhance operational efficiency and create new revenue streams [16]. - Emphasis on globally competitive industries, especially in new energy and innovative pharmaceuticals, with a significant focus on lithium battery supply chains and the global expansion of Chinese pharmaceutical companies [17][20]. - Targeting domestic substitution in high-tech and strategically significant sectors, such as aviation engines and semiconductors, which present substantial market opportunities [21]. - Encouraging the globalization of Chinese manufacturing companies, which are now equipped to compete effectively in international markets, driven by advancements in automation and technology [21].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the strategic importance of implementing the "Artificial Intelligence +" initiative to integrate AI with various sectors, aiming to reshape production and living paradigms and drive a revolutionary leap in productivity and social relations [1] - AI is identified as a strategic technology leading a new round of technological revolution and industrial transformation, with China needing breakthroughs in foundational theories and key technologies to seize opportunities in AI development [1][2] - The initiative aims to leverage China's complete industrial system, vast market scale, and rich application scenarios to accelerate the growth of AI technologies through practical applications, fostering a virtuous cycle of innovation and application [1] Group 2 - The reduction in training costs for large models and advancements in multimodal integration are facilitating the transition of AI from laboratories to everyday life, creating numerous new development opportunities [2] - Countries are increasingly formulating AI development strategies, leading to the emergence of new fields such as autonomous driving and humanoid robots, which could reshape the global economic landscape [2] - The "Artificial Intelligence +" initiative is designed to strengthen the application-oriented development of AI technologies and promote large-scale commercialization of AI products and services [2] Group 3 - The rapid growth of generative AI products and the expansion of application scenarios are advancing the transition from digitalization to intelligentization in China [3] - The digital economy's core industries are projected to account for approximately 10% of GDP in 2024, with the national data market transaction scale exceeding 160 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of over 30% from 2023 [3] - The initiative aims to integrate AI into various economic and social development areas, promoting deep fusion and accelerating the establishment of a new intelligent development landscape [3] Group 4 - The commercialization and large-scale application of AI is a long-term and complex system project that requires broad collaboration through the "Artificial Intelligence +" initiative [4] - Key areas of focus include strengthening foundational research, supporting diverse technological explorations, and developing a self-controlled AI infrastructure [4] - The initiative also emphasizes the importance of talent cultivation, financial support, and the establishment of legal frameworks to ensure the safe and reliable development of AI technologies [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the strategic importance of implementing the "Artificial Intelligence +" initiative to integrate AI with various sectors, aiming to reshape production and living paradigms and promote revolutionary changes in productivity and social relations [1] - AI is identified as a strategic technology leading a new round of technological revolution and industrial transformation, with China needing breakthroughs in foundational theories and key technologies to seize opportunities in AI development [1][2] - The initiative aims to leverage China's complete industrial system, vast market scale, and rich application scenarios to accelerate the growth of AI technologies through practical applications, fostering a virtuous cycle of innovation and application [1] Group 2 - The reduction in training costs for large models and advancements in multimodal integration are driving AI from laboratories to real-world applications, creating new development opportunities across various sectors [2] - Countries are increasingly formulating AI development strategies, leading to the emergence of new fields such as autonomous driving and humanoid robots, which could reshape the global economic landscape [2] - The "Artificial Intelligence +" initiative is designed to enhance the application-oriented development of AI technologies, promoting the commercialization of AI products and services [2] Group 3 - The rapid growth of generative AI products and expanding application scenarios are facilitating the transition from digitalization to intelligentization in China's digital economy [3] - In 2024, the core industries of China's digital economy are projected to account for approximately 10% of GDP, with the national data market transaction scale exceeding 160 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of over 30% from 2023 [3] - The initiative aims to ensure the continuous integration of AI into various economic and social development fields, advancing the construction of a digital China [3] Group 4 - The commercialization and large-scale application of AI is a long-term and complex system project that requires broad collaboration through the "Artificial Intelligence +" initiative [4] - Key areas of focus include strengthening foundational research, supporting diverse technological explorations, and developing a self-controlled AI infrastructure [4] - The initiative also emphasizes the importance of talent cultivation, financial support, and the establishment of legal frameworks to ensure the safe and reliable development of AI technologies [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the strategic importance of implementing the "Artificial Intelligence +" initiative to integrate AI with various sectors, aiming to reshape production and living paradigms and promote revolutionary changes in productivity and social relations [1][3]. - AI is identified as a strategic technology leading a new round of technological revolution and industrial transformation, with a focus on overcoming existing weaknesses in foundational theories and key technologies to gain a competitive edge [1][2]. - The initiative aims to foster a virtuous cycle of innovation and application, leveraging China's complete industrial system, vast market scale, and rich application scenarios to accelerate AI technology development [1][2]. Group 2 - The continuous reduction in training costs for large models and advancements in multimodal integration technologies are creating new development opportunities as AI transitions from laboratories to everyday life [2]. - Countries are increasingly formulating AI development strategies, leading to the emergence of new fields such as autonomous driving and humanoid robots, which are expected to reshape the global economic landscape [2]. - The "Artificial Intelligence +" initiative is designed to enhance the application-oriented development of AI technologies and promote large-scale commercialization of AI products and services [2][4]. Group 3 - The rapid growth of generative AI products and expanding application scenarios are propelling the transition from digitalization to intelligentization in China's digital economy [3]. - By 2024, the core industries of the digital economy are projected to account for approximately 10% of the GDP, with the data market transaction scale exceeding 160 billion, reflecting a growth of over 30% from 2023 [3]. - The initiative aims to ensure the deep integration of AI across various sectors, enhancing the efficiency of public services and improving the quality of life for citizens [3][4]. Group 4 - The commercialization and large-scale application of AI is a complex, long-term endeavor that requires collaboration across various sectors [4]. - Key areas of focus include strengthening foundational research, supporting diverse technological explorations, and developing a robust AI infrastructure [4]. - The initiative also emphasizes the importance of legal frameworks, ethical guidelines, and safety measures to ensure the secure and controllable development of AI technologies [4].