证券代码：000338.SZ/2338.HK 证券简称：潍柴动力 1 | | 完善新能源产品序列，满足不同场景需求；继续深耕海外市场， | | --- | --- | | | 通过产品优化与人员协同，抢抓海外增长机遇。 | | | 2.公司发电产品相关的布局和业务发展情况 | | 全球 | AI 快速发展驱动电力需求激增，发电产业迎来高速发 | | | 展机遇，公司发电业务正以精准卡位的技术与产品以及前瞻的 | | | 产能布局快速拓展市场，以柴油、天然气、SOFC 等多种产品组 | | | 合充分满足备用电源和主电源等多元化市场需求，成为公司利 | | | 润来源多元化的主要驱动业务之一。未来，潍柴将持续为客户 | | | 提供高效、可靠、安全、清洁的数据中心电源解决方案，并建 | | | 立完善适应全球高端客户的大数据中心业务产业链生态，为全 | | | 球能源装备市场提供"中国方案"。 | | | 3.股东回报未来展望 | | | 一方面，公司持续做好业务经营，优化利润结构，提升公 | | | 司业绩表现和长期竞争力。另一方面积极通过高频次高比例现 | | | 金分红、股份回购等方式提高股东回报。除一年 ...

智通财经APP获悉，根据第一商用车网初步掌握的数据，2025年11月份，我国重卡市场共计销售10万辆 左右（批发口径，包含出口和新能源），环比今年10月下降约6%，比上年同期的6.85万辆大幅增长约 46%。 截止到目前，重卡市场已经实现了八连涨，从4月份一直涨到11月份，平均增速高达42%！ 新能源重卡刷新纪录，再创新高；天然气重卡"四连涨"并且连续三个月突破2万辆；此外，国内柴油重 卡11月份终端销量预计基本持平。 中信建投发布研报称，重卡内销前景稳健+出口持续增长，关注国内补贴延续性与龙头业绩超预期机 会。2026年国内置换需求释放，出口持续增长，有望支撑行业总量高位稳健。若补贴政策延续，景气度 有望再超预期。行业层面建议关注国内补贴政策延续情况、宏观扩内需政策力度以及出口增长持续性。 重卡相关产业链港股： 中国重汽(03808)：25H1公司实现新能源重卡销量9376辆，同比+220.3%（高于行业增速），市占率达 11.8%。伴随公司在新能源产品的全面布局，后续仍有望迎来新突破。分红方面，公司拟每股派息0.68 元，总金额为18.77亿元，分红比例54.8%，保持较高分红比例。海关总署数据，25H1 ...

Industry Overview - In November 2025, China's heavy truck market sold approximately 100,000 units, a month-on-month decrease of about 6% from October 2025, but a significant year-on-year increase of approximately 46% from 68,500 units in the same month last year [1] - The heavy truck market has experienced eight consecutive months of growth, with an average growth rate of 42% from April to November 2025 [1] - Strong terminal sales growth, driven by the policy promoting the scrapping and updating of old operating trucks, has supported domestic demand [1] New Energy and Gas Trucks - New energy heavy trucks have set new records, while natural gas heavy trucks have seen four consecutive months of growth, exceeding 20,000 units for three consecutive months [1] - Domestic diesel heavy truck terminal sales in November are expected to remain stable [1] Company Insights China National Heavy Duty Truck Group (China National Heavy Duty Truck) - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved sales of 9,376 new energy heavy trucks, a year-on-year increase of 220.3%, surpassing the industry growth rate, with a market share of 11.8% [2] - The company plans to distribute a dividend of 0.68 yuan per share, totaling 1.877 billion yuan, maintaining a high dividend payout ratio of 54.8% [2] - In the first half of 2025, heavy truck exports to non-Russian regions reached 143,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 35.8%, supporting overseas demand growth [2] Weichai Power - The scrapping subsidy is expected to stimulate a 10% recovery in industry sales in 2025, reaching 1 million units, benefiting the company as a leading heavy truck engine manufacturer [3] - The company delivered 5,000 large-bore engines in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 41%, with a projected total delivery of 11,000 large-bore engines for the year [3] - The company delivered 10,000 new energy heavy trucks, capturing a market share of approximately 12.6%, with expectations of 2-3 times growth in new energy products in the second half of the year [3]

Core Insights - The heavy truck market in China is experiencing significant growth, with sales reaching approximately 100,000 units in November 2025, marking a 46% increase year-on-year and a 6% decrease month-on-month [1] - Cumulatively, the heavy truck market has sold over 1 million units from January to November 2025, achieving a year-on-year growth of about 26% [1] - Exports of heavy trucks are also on the rise, with an expected year-on-year increase of nearly 20% in November, leading to a projected total export of over 320,000 units for the year [1] Group 1: Heavy Truck Sales Performance - In November, the terminal sales of heavy trucks are expected to show a year-on-year growth of around 44%, with a month-on-month increase of approximately 17% [2] - The terminal sales of natural gas heavy trucks have shown a consistent upward trend, with sales expected to exceed 20,000 units for four consecutive months [3] - The sales of electric heavy trucks are anticipated to reach a new high in November, with a significant year-on-year increase of nearly 160% [3] Group 2: Market Drivers and Policies - The strong performance in terminal sales is supported by the policy promoting the scrapping and replacement of old operating trucks, which has driven demand since April [2] - The retail price of LNG has remained stable, contributing to the recovery in demand for natural gas heavy trucks [3] - The upcoming reduction in the purchase tax for new energy vehicles starting January 1 is expected to create a pre-purchase effect, further boosting sales in November [3]

Core Viewpoint - The heavy truck market in China is experiencing significant growth, driven by policies such as the old-for-new program, with expectations for continued strong performance as the year ends [2][8]. Group 1: Sales Performance - In November, heavy truck sales reached approximately 100,000 units, marking a 46% year-on-year increase despite a 6% month-on-month decline [2][5]. - Cumulatively, from January to November, heavy truck sales exceeded 1 million units, achieving a 26% year-on-year growth [5]. - The average growth rate from April to November has been around 42%, indicating a robust market performance [2]. Group 2: Policy Impact - The heavy truck market's growth is significantly influenced by the old-for-new policy, which has been a key driver since April [8]. - Some local governments have paused or modified their subsidy programs due to fiscal constraints, but the release of final subsidy funds has reignited some support for purchases [8] [10]. Group 3: Export Trends - Heavy truck exports are also on the rise, with November exports expected to increase by nearly 20%, contributing to an anticipated total of over 320,000 units for the year [10]. Group 4: Segment Performance - In November, natural gas heavy trucks surpassed 20,000 units in sales, while electric heavy trucks reached record highs, driven by strong terminal demand [11][16]. - The terminal sales of new energy heavy trucks are projected to reach 26,000 units in November, reflecting a year-on-year growth of nearly 160% and a market penetration rate exceeding 30% [16].

Core Insights - China is rapidly transitioning from diesel to electric heavy-duty trucks, which may reshape global fuel demand and the heavy-duty transportation industry [1][2] - The penetration rate of new energy heavy-duty trucks in China is projected to reach 22.34% by mid-2025, up from 9.21% in the same period last year [1] - Electric heavy-duty trucks are expected to account for nearly 46% of new heavy-duty truck sales this year, rising to 60% next year according to BMI [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The sales proportion of new energy heavy-duty trucks in China has exceeded that of gas heavy-duty trucks for five consecutive months starting from May 2025 [2] - Despite electric heavy-duty trucks being two to three times the price of diesel trucks and about 18% more than gas trucks, their higher energy efficiency and lower operating costs can save owners 10% to 26% over the vehicle's lifecycle [2] - The use of electric heavy-duty trucks is estimated to reduce China's oil demand by one million barrels per day [2] Group 2: Export Opportunities - China has become the world's largest passenger car exporter and is now focusing on the global electric heavy-duty truck market [2] - Exports of heavy-duty trucks (including electric ones) from China to the Middle East, North Africa, and Latin America are projected to grow by approximately 73% and 46% annually from 2021 to 2023, respectively [2]

Core Insights - China is rapidly transitioning from diesel heavy trucks to electric heavy trucks, which may reshape global fuel demand and the heavy truck transportation industry [1][2] - The penetration rate of new energy heavy trucks in China is projected to reach 22.34% by mid-2025, up from 9.21% in the first half of the previous year [1] - Electric heavy trucks are expected to account for nearly 46% of new heavy truck sales this year, rising to 60% next year according to BMI [1] Industry Impact - Heavy trucks are crucial for the modern economy but are also significant sources of carbon emissions, with road freight accounting for one-third of total transport sector emissions in 2019 [1] - The transition to electric heavy trucks is seen as a challenge due to their lower payload capacity compared to diesel trucks, but supporters of liquefied natural gas (LNG) argue that gas trucks are a cleaner alternative until electric technology matures [1] - Analysts suggest that China's diesel consumption may decline faster than expected, as electric heavy trucks are currently more popular than gas trucks in the market [1] Market Dynamics - As of May 2025, the sales share of new energy heavy trucks in China has surpassed that of gas trucks for five consecutive months [2] - Despite electric heavy trucks being two to three times more expensive than diesel trucks and about 18% more than gas trucks, their higher energy efficiency and lower operating costs could save owners 10% to 26% over the vehicle's lifecycle [2] - The use of electric heavy trucks is estimated to reduce China's oil demand by one million barrels per day [2] - China has become the largest passenger car exporter and is now focusing on the global electric heavy truck market, with exports to the Middle East, North Africa, and Latin America growing approximately 73% and 46% annually from 2021 to 2023 [2]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The heavy truck industry in China is experiencing strong demand, with sales in October 2025 reaching approximately 93,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 40% [1][3] - The "old-for-new" policy has significantly stimulated sales, leading to a continuous growth trend since April, with an average growth rate of around 40% [1][3] - Total sales for the first ten months of 2025 have already surpassed the entire sales of 2024, indicating robust market performance [4] Core Insights and Arguments - The heavy truck market is expected to maintain a growth rate of over 20% for the entire year, driven by fiscal subsidies and the potential cancellation of new energy vehicle tax exemptions [1][5] - The "old-for-new" policy has been expanded to include National IV vehicles, with an estimated replacement of 140,000 to 150,000 units, significantly boosting both domestic demand and exports [1][6] - Domestic demand is projected to reach 800,000 units, with exports expected to be around 300,000 units, leading to a total market volume of 1.1 million units, a year-on-year increase of over 20% [1][6] Market Performance and Future Expectations - The domestic market is expected to continue its strong recovery, with November and December projected to see over 60% growth in vehicle registrations [1][7] - The natural gas heavy truck segment is maintaining a high penetration rate, with an expected annual growth rate of 120% and a penetration rate exceeding 27% [1][9] - New energy heavy truck sales have reached record highs, with October sales increasing by 140% year-on-year, although there may be downward pressure next year due to reduced policy effects [1][10] Export Outlook - Exports are anticipated to reach 300,000 units for the year, with strong demand from non-Russian regions, particularly Europe, Africa, and Asia, showing growth rates of over 30-40% [1][12] - The export structure is improving, with a higher proportion of high-end products, which will contribute to overall sales growth [1][12] Investment Opportunities - The Chinese heavy truck sector is viewed as having significant investment potential due to its low valuation, high growth rates, and attractive dividend yields [2][3][14] - Companies such as Weichai Power and China National Heavy Duty Truck Group are highlighted as having strong growth potential and defensive attributes, making them attractive investment targets [3][14][15][16] Additional Insights - The diesel heavy truck market is also performing well, with a 20% year-on-year increase in terminal sales in October, indicating a potential optimization of market share as the proportion of new energy trucks declines [1][11] - The overall sentiment is cautiously optimistic, with expectations of continued strong performance in the heavy truck market despite potential challenges in the coming year [14]

Core Viewpoint - The heavy truck market in China has shown significant growth in October 2025, driven by the old truck replacement policy, with sales reaching approximately 93,000 units, marking a 40% year-on-year increase despite a 12% month-on-month decline from September [1][4]. Sales Performance - In October 2025, the heavy truck market sold around 93,000 units, the second-highest level in the past eight years, only lower than October 2020's 137,500 units [4]. - Cumulative sales from January to October 2025 exceeded 916,000 units, representing a year-on-year growth of about 22%, with expectations to surpass 1 million units by the end of November [4]. Market Trends - The heavy truck market has experienced seven consecutive months of growth from April to October 2025, with an average growth rate of 39% during this period [1]. - The terminal sales of heavy trucks have been strong, with significant year-on-year increases observed from April to October, particularly in September with a 92% increase [4]. Export Growth - Heavy truck exports have also shown steady growth, with October 2025 expected to see a nearly 10% year-on-year increase in export wholesale volume, leading to an annual export total exceeding 300,000 units [5]. Policy Impact - The growth in the heavy truck market is largely attributed to the "old-for-new" policy for operational trucks, which has been a significant driver since April 2025 [8]. - Despite some local governments suspending subsidies due to fiscal constraints, the reactivation of subsidies in certain areas and the impending deadline for the policy are expected to sustain high growth rates in November [8]. Segment Performance - In October 2025, the terminal sales of natural gas heavy trucks are projected to have doubled year-on-year, while electric heavy trucks are expected to see a 140% increase [9][10]. - The penetration rate of electric heavy trucks reached nearly 28% in October, driven by the old-for-new policy and upcoming tax incentives for electric vehicles [10]. - Diesel heavy trucks also contributed to growth, with an expected year-on-year increase of nearly 20% in terminal sales for October [11].

Core Viewpoint - The heavy truck market in China has shown significant growth in October 2025, driven by policies encouraging the replacement of old vehicles, despite a slight month-on-month decline in sales compared to September 2025 [2][5][8]. Group 1: Sales Performance - In October 2025, approximately 93,000 heavy trucks were sold, marking a 40% year-on-year increase from 66,400 units in the same month last year, although it represents a 12% decrease from September 2025 [2][5]. - Cumulatively, from January to October 2025, the heavy truck market has sold over 916,000 units, reflecting a 22% year-on-year growth, with expectations to surpass 1 million units by November [5]. - The average growth rate from April to October 2025 has been 39%, with consistent year-on-year increases observed each month [2][5]. Group 2: Market Drivers - The growth in the heavy truck market is largely attributed to the "old-for-new" vehicle replacement policy, which has been a significant driver since April 2025 [8]. - Despite some local governments suspending subsidies due to fiscal constraints, the release of the last batch of subsidy funds in late September has reignited some support for the market [8]. Group 3: Segment Performance - The natural gas heavy truck segment has seen a remarkable increase, with terminal sales expected to grow by approximately 120% year-on-year in October 2025, following a 149% increase in September [10][12]. - The electric heavy truck segment is also performing well, with an anticipated terminal sales volume of around 20,000 units in October 2025, representing over a 140% year-on-year increase [12]. - Diesel heavy trucks are projected to see a nearly 20% increase in terminal sales in October 2025, contributing significantly to overall market growth [14].