证券研究报告 | 行业策略 gszqdatemark 2025 12 31 年 月 日 海外市场 2026 年五大猜想：入口争夺大年 猜想一：模型能力有望持续突破。展望未来，我们认为 AI 模型能力仍处于持续进 化通道，2026 年有望在加强多模态推理与生成能力、提升超长上下文处理能力及 降低模型幻觉率等维度上取得突破。在应用场景方面，这有望促进内容产业工业 化、世界模型演进，也有望加速智能体迭代、及支撑 AI 向更专业的行业级与科研 级应用延伸。 猜想二：AI 应用进入流量入口争夺大年。1）在 C 端入口的争夺上，头部互联网 厂商如阿里巴巴、字节跳动、腾讯等凭借领先的模型能力与丰富的业务生态，具备 先发优势。2）B 端应用方面，AI Coding、AI 营销、AI4S 有望成为率先突围的领 域。我们预计 2026 年，C 端入口的争夺会演化为软硬结合与生态丰富度的竞争， 而 B 端应用的渗透率会随着模型多模态、上下文处理、幻觉率优化等能力的提升 而持续加速。 猜想三：端侧智能硬件迎来安卓时刻。展望 2026，我们认为，端侧硬件中，1）手 机和 PC 市场或因存储成本上涨而带来终端销量承压，但折叠机等创新点仍 ...

Core Viewpoint - Tesla's Robotaxi service officially launched on June 22, marking a significant milestone in the company's autonomous driving ambitions after nearly a decade of development [1][4]. Group 1: Robotaxi Launch Details - The initial rollout involves a limited fleet of 10 to 20 Model Y vehicles operating in a restricted area of South Austin, Texas, with service hours from 6 AM to midnight [2][4]. - Each vehicle is equipped with a safety driver, contrary to previous statements by Elon Musk about fully autonomous operation without personnel [6][8]. - The service achieved 112 rides in 13 minutes, covering nearly 500 miles, indicating strong initial demand despite system limitations [8]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Tesla's Robotaxi aims to operate at a significantly lower cost than competitors like Waymo, targeting a cost of $0.20 per mile compared to Waymo's $1.60 per mile [8][9]. - The hardware cost for Tesla's Robotaxi is estimated to be 20-30% lower than Waymo's, leveraging a vision-based system without lidar [9][11]. - The Robotaxi model allows Tesla vehicle owners to earn income by participating in the service when their cars are idle, potentially leading to a scalable business model [9]. Group 3: Market Growth Projections - Goldman Sachs projects the North American Robotaxi market will grow from approximately $300 million in 2025 to $7 billion by 2030, capturing 8% of the shared mobility market [10][11]. - In contrast, the Chinese Robotaxi market is expected to expand from $54 million in 2025 to $12 billion by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate exceeding 96% [10][11]. - The disparity in growth rates is attributed to lower hardware costs in China, facilitating faster commercialization of Robotaxi services [11][13]. Group 4: Industry Context and Challenges - Despite the positive reception of Tesla's Robotaxi, industry experts caution that the company faces significant challenges in technology, management, regulation, and ethics [4][10]. - Tesla's recent financial performance shows a decline in revenue and vehicle deliveries, indicating potential vulnerabilities amid increasing competition from companies like BYD [16][18]. - The successful launch of Robotaxi is seen as a pivotal moment for Tesla, potentially reshaping its business model and growth trajectory in the electric vehicle market [18].

Economic Events Overview - Key economic events from April 7 to April 13 include the release of the U.S. Federal Reserve's March monetary policy meeting minutes and various financial data releases from China and the U.S. [2][3] - The first quarter earnings season is officially starting, with A-shares led by Xiaoshangpin City and notable U.S. banks like JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo expected to report [3][18]. Inflation and Financial Data - China's March financial data, including social financing and credit, is set to be released between April 9 and 15, with February's social financing increasing by 2.23 trillion yuan and new RMB loans at 1.01 trillion yuan [5]. - The U.S. March CPI is anticipated to show a slight increase of 0.1%, marking the smallest rise since July of the previous year, while core CPI is expected to rise by 0.3% month-on-month [6][7]. U.S. Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Reserve's March meeting minutes will provide insights into concerns regarding rising short-term inflation expectations and the economic uncertainty stemming from new tariffs [12][13]. - The Fed has maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25%-4.5%, indicating a pause in rate cuts for the second consecutive meeting [12]. Corporate Developments - Google is set to host its annual Cloud Next event from April 9 to 11, where it will announce advancements in its cloud services and AI capabilities [17]. - Tesla will hold an opening event in Saudi Arabia on April 10, marking its entry into the Saudi market [19]. - The launch of the "Shangjie" brand by Hongmeng Zhixing is scheduled for April 10, with expectations for new product announcements [20]. Upcoming Events and Conferences - The Fifth China International Consumer Products Expo will take place from April 13 to 18, featuring various international exhibitors [28]. - The 10th China Science and Technology Finance Forum will be held on April 7 in Beijing, focusing on the future of technology finance [29].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the growing recognition and endorsement of the autonomous driving technology by foreign dignitaries, particularly focusing on the positive feedback received by the sixth-generation autonomous vehicle from "萝卜快跑" during recent visits by Singapore's Deputy Prime Minister and UAE officials [1][2][4][6]. Group 1: Safety and Technology - The safety of autonomous driving is emphasized as a universal technical baseline, with "萝卜快跑" reporting an accident rate that is only 1/14 of traditional drivers over the past two years [9]. - The sixth-generation vehicle is equipped with 40 sensors, providing a 360-degree view and a detection range of up to 440 meters, which is seven times the human eye's limit [10]. - The decision-making system features dual computing centers for error correction, capable of taking over in 0.01 seconds during anomalies [11]. - The vehicle's control systems for steering, braking, and power supply have dual backups, maintaining over 90% performance even if one component fails [12]. - The article discusses the evolution of end-to-end autonomous driving technology, which leverages AI models for perception, decision-making, and planning, enhancing the ability to handle edge cases [15][19]. Group 2: Market Expansion and Opportunities - "萝卜快跑" is positioned to expand internationally, with Singapore and the UAE identified as potential markets due to their openness to autonomous driving technology [34][36]. - Singapore has a pressing need for autonomous solutions due to high population density and the cost of private car ownership, making Robotaxi a suitable option [35]. - The UAE has also shown a welcoming attitude towards autonomous vehicles, with established testing routes and industry support for development [38]. - The article notes that "萝卜快跑" has a significant cost advantage, with its sixth-generation vehicle costing approximately 204,600 yuan, less than 1/7 of Waymo's costs [44]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The global autonomous vehicle market is shifting from a three-player dominance to a new landscape where "萝卜快跑" and Waymo are emerging as the leading competitors [40]. - The article suggests that the advancements in AI models and the reduction in costs for autonomous vehicle components are driving a new wave of competition in the industry [46]. - The potential for "萝卜快跑" to replicate its cost-effective breakthroughs globally is highlighted, indicating a promising future for the company in international markets [45].