证券研究报告 东吴证券晨会纪要 东吴证券晨会纪要 2025-06-27 [Table_Tag] 宏观策略 [Table_MacroStrategy] 宏观点评 20250624：Risk-off 阶段开启，risk-on 后转向成长 轮动变化的节奏来看，当前资金形态和风格节奏与 2024 年年初、2024 年 年末以及 2025 年 3 月末的风格轮动或有类似。初期均以 TMT 板块表现 为主，随后在量能逐步收窄的过程中，向上游资源、金融轮换，随后短期 向消费、制造板块和 TMT 等相对强势的板块略反弹，最后轮动回资源和 金融板块。当前宏观经济基本面相对 2024 年末和 2025 年 3 月末并未发 生根本性改变，后续的行业轮动变化的节奏可能延续前期的资金端行为 主导，经历过小盘的提升后，随着小盘轮动到极值，逐步向大盘价值、稳 定板块切换，短期以防御模式应对。 参考今年以来 ETF 净流入的方向， 防御模式下 A50、沪深 300 指数作为底仓，优先选择高股息中更为稳定 的银行、运营商、公用事业、家电龙头等稳定的板块进行防守。在政策力 度加强、市场明朗后，下一步的反攻方向优先选择筹码出清后的成长板 块，往政 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights the successful hosting of COMPUTEX, focusing on AI, data centers, and robotics as key trends, with major chip manufacturers showcasing innovations [4][35][36] - In April, the semiconductor market showed signs of recovery, with stable chip delivery times and strong AI-related orders, while automotive and industrial demand began to rebound [4][38] - The report anticipates a structural growth driven by AI in Q2, with recommendations to focus on SoC, ASIC, storage, and CIS opportunities [4][39] Group 2 - The report on Lian Micro (立昂微) indicates a record high revenue of 3.092 billion yuan in 2024, a 14.97% increase year-on-year, despite a net loss of 266 million yuan [10][25] - The company is expanding its production capacity and optimizing its product structure to meet the growing demand in AI, electrification, and smart technology sectors [10][27] - The report projects a downward adjustment in profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026, with net profits expected to be 89 million yuan and 180 million yuan respectively, while maintaining a "hold" rating due to anticipated growth in downstream markets [10][29] Group 3 - The report on Huazhi Wine (华致酒行) reveals a significant decline in Q1 2025 revenue and net profit, with a 31.01% drop in revenue to 2.852 billion yuan [11][31] - The company is implementing a comprehensive adjustment strategy to address inventory and sales challenges, aiming for a recovery in profits by 2025 [11][33] - Future revenue projections for 2025-2027 are set at 9.910 billion, 10.670 billion, and 11.192 billion yuan respectively, with a significant expected increase in net profit [11][33]