Core Insights - The 85th American Diabetes Association Scientific Sessions highlighted the escalating competition in the GLP-1 drug market, particularly between major players Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly [1][2] - Novo Nordisk's STEP UP trial demonstrated a significant average weight reduction of 21% in obese patients without diabetes using a higher dose of Wegovy, while Eli Lilly's ACHIEVE-1 trial showed orforglipron effectively lowered A1C levels by 1.3% to 1.6% in type 2 diabetes patients [1][3][4] Company Developments - Novo Nordisk reported sales of its GLP-1 products, with Ozempic generating approximately $17.47 billion, Rybelsus around $3.38 billion, and Wegovy about $8.45 billion in 2024, totaling approximately $29.3 billion [3] - Eli Lilly's tirzepatide contributed nearly $16.5 billion to its revenue in 2024, accounting for about 36% of its total income [3] - Novo Nordisk plans to submit a label update for a higher dose of Wegovy in the EU by late 2025, while Eli Lilly is expected to file for orforglipron's weight management approval by the end of this year [4][5] Market Trends - The global market for GLP-1 drugs is projected to reach approximately $60 billion by 2025 and could grow to $80 billion or more by 2030, driven by increasing obesity rates and demand for effective treatments [2][6] - The competitive landscape is evolving, with 179 GLP-1 candidates in clinical stages from 45 companies, indicating a potential influx of new products by 2029 [6][8] Innovations and Research - Domestic companies are making significant strides in GLP-1 drug development, with innovative products like IBI362 and HRS9531 showing promising results in clinical trials [6][7] - The introduction of Ecnoglutide, a novel GLP-1 drug from a Chinese company, demonstrated a weight reduction of 15.1% in clinical trials, marking a significant advancement in the field [7] - The focus is shifting towards improving drug safety and tolerability, with companies expected to invest more in these areas to enhance patient experience and treatment outcomes [2][9]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight (Maintain)" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the significant rise in the global obesity population, with the adult overweight/obesity rate reaching 46% in 2025 and projected to rise to 54% by 2035. In China, the overweight/obesity population aged 25 and above reached 402 million by 2021, expected to exceed 627 million by 2050 [2] - The report emphasizes the increasing demand for treatments related to metabolic diseases, particularly the GLP-1 class of drugs, which is projected to surpass $50 billion in global sales by 2024, with semaglutide contributing $25 billion and tirzepatide $16 billion [2] - Domestic pharmaceutical companies are actively developing GLP-1 drugs, with several clinical research results expected to be presented at the upcoming ADA conference, showcasing advancements in obesity and diabetes treatments [3] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report notes that the ADA conference is expected to elevate the focus on GLP-1 drugs, with long-acting, oral, multi-target combination therapies, and fat loss without muscle loss being key areas of interest [4] Market Trends - The report indicates that the prescription volume of GLP-1 drugs in the U.S. has been rapidly increasing, with GLP-1 drugs accounting for over 50% of the total market share for weight loss medications as of April 2025 [2] Company Focus - The report suggests monitoring companies such as Heng Rui Medicine, Zhong Sheng Pharmaceutical, and Innovent Biologics, as they are well-positioned in the GLP-1 drug market [4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [5] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the upcoming 85th Annual Scientific Sessions of the American Diabetes Association (ADA) from June 20-23, 2025, which is expected to showcase significant advancements in GLP-1 class drugs and weight management strategies [5][6] - The report emphasizes the increasing international recognition of China's innovations in the endocrine and metabolic fields, particularly in the GLP class drug sector, with notable achievements from companies like Innovent Biologics and Eli Lilly [7][8] - The report anticipates a substantial growth in China's GLP-1 weight loss drug market, projecting a market size exceeding 15 billion yuan by 2025, with penetration rates expected to rise from under 5% in 2023 to 18%-20% [8] Summary by Sections Recent Industry Performance - The industry has shown relative returns of 8.85% over the past month, 10.28% over the past three months, and 3.81% over the past year compared to the CSI 300 index [3] Investment Highlights - The report focuses on the catalysts from the ADA conference, particularly the advancements in GLP-1 class drugs, which are expected to drive investment opportunities [6][7] - Key companies mentioned include Eli Lilly, Novo Nordisk, and domestic firms like Boryung Pharmaceutical and Gan & Lee Pharmaceuticals, which are actively involved in GLP-1 drug development [7][8] Market Dynamics - The report notes the active business development transactions in the GLP class drug sector, indicating a high level of industry enthusiasm and potential for growth [7] - It also mentions the upcoming global diabetes-related conferences in 2025, which will further stimulate the market for GLP class drugs [8]