行 华福证券 建筑材料 2025 年 08 月 04 日 业 研 究 建筑材料 城市更新呵护需求，反内卷加快供给出清 投资要点： 行 业 定 期 报 告 中共中央政治局 7 月 30 日召开会议，会议指出要落实落细更加积极的 财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，落实好中央城市工作会议精神，高质量 开展城市更新；上海加快推进"两旧一村"改造，今年计划启动 25 个城中 村改造；深圳规划 2026 年前建成深汕通用机场，提升 eVTOL 服务保障能 力；重庆今年滚动实施城中村改造项目 150 个；广州 7 月二手住宅网签 8962 套，同比下降 10.7%；山东将数字家庭纳入"好房子"建设内容，对个人 购置智能家居予以补贴；沈阳 2025 年度住房公积金缴存基数上限调整为 29523 元；哈尔滨发布公积金新政，以旧换新贷款额度，最高上浮 20%； 广州从化推出"以旧换新""房票"等房地产健康发展七项措施；贵州 2025 年计划改造城中村 6268 户，调整土地增值税预征率；成都发布 2025 年城 市更新片区 12 个项目机会清单，涉及城市有机更新、危旧房改造、自主改 造等多个方面，总投资额高达数百亿元。中长期来看：1 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [8][69] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the recent increase in tariffs on Chinese goods by the US and corresponding adjustments by China are expected to boost domestic demand for building materials. The urgency to expand domestic demand and promote investment has intensified due to the escalating global trade war [3][13]. - Short-term factors include the real estate policy window period before the April Politburo meeting, and the gradual alleviation of risks associated with major real estate companies, which is favorable for the building materials sector. In the medium to long term, the opening of the interest rate cut channel in Europe and the US is expected to provide more room for monetary and fiscal policies in China [3][6]. - The report anticipates that the real estate market will stabilize, driven by policies aimed at restoring homebuyer willingness and ability, which will also alleviate credit risks for companies in the industry [6][20]. Summary by Sections Recent Developments - On April 10, the US government announced an increase in tariffs on Chinese imports to 125%, prompting China to respond with similar measures. Additionally, various local governments are implementing policies to support urban renewal and housing market stability [3][13]. - In the first quarter, high-end residential transaction prices in Shanghai increased by 0.5% to 144,600 CNY per square meter, while Shenzhen saw a 67.7% year-on-year increase in new and second-hand residential transactions [3][13]. High-frequency Data - As of April 11, 2025, the national average price of bulk P.O 42.5 cement is 399.0 CNY per ton, showing a 1.2% decrease week-on-week but a 15.0% increase year-on-year. The average price of glass (5.00mm) is 1272.9 CNY per ton, reflecting a 0.3% increase week-on-week but a 26.5% decrease year-on-year [4][21]. Sector Review - From April 7 to April 11, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 3.11%, while the building materials index decreased by 2.42%. Among sub-sectors, cement manufacturing saw a slight increase of 1.01%, while glass manufacturing declined by 6.21% [5][54]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main investment lines: high-quality companies benefiting from stock reform, undervalued stocks with long-term alpha attributes, and leading cyclical building material companies showing signs of bottoming out [6][60].