长江大宗 2026年3月金股推荐 长江证券研究所周期组 2026-03-01 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 证券研究报告 • 证券研究报告 • 分析师及联系人 分析师 王鹤涛 分析师 范超 分析师 韩轶超 分析师 马太 SAC执业证书编号：S0490512070002 SAC执业证书编号：S0490513080001 SAC执业证书编号：S0490512020001 SAC执业证书编号：S0490516100002 SFC执业证书编号：BQT626 SFC执业证书编号：BQK473 SFC执业证书编号：BQK468 SFC执业证书编号：BUT911 分析师 魏凯 分析师 张韦华 分析师 张弛 分析师 肖勇 SAC执业证书编号：S0490520080009 SAC执业证书编号：S0490517080003 SAC执业证书编号：S0490520080022 SAC执业证书编号：S0490516080003 SFC执业证书编号：BUT964 SFC执业证书编号：BQT627 SFC执业证书编号：BUT917 SFC执业证书编号：BUT918 %% %% %% %% researc ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the construction materials sector, indicating a positive outlook compared to the broader market [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights a recovery in the real estate sector, particularly in Shanghai, due to policy relaxations that are expected to boost the construction materials chain [6][7]. - It emphasizes the potential for a "small spring" in the market as downstream demand gradually recovers, supported by various government policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market [6][7]. - The report identifies key companies that are likely to benefit from this recovery, including three trees and rabbit baby, while also suggesting to monitor other firms like Han Gao Group and Beixin Building Materials [6][7]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The construction materials sector has seen a 3.3% increase, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.2 percentage points [15]. - Year-to-date, the sector has risen by 12.2%, exceeding the CSI 300 index by approximately 10.5 percentage points [15]. Cement Sector - Demand has not fully recovered post-holiday, with an average shipment rate of about 10% in key regions [30]. - The average price of cement is approximately 344 RMB per ton, reflecting a slight decrease of 2.6 RMB per ton compared to the previous week [22][24]. - Recommendations include Huaxin Cement and Conch Cement, with a focus on the recovery of downstream projects [30]. Glass Sector - The glass industry is experiencing significant inventory accumulation, with a total of 67.28 million heavy boxes, a 30.3% increase from the previous week [43]. - The average price of float glass has risen to 1,165 RMB per ton, with an average profit margin of -49 RMB per ton [32]. - Companies to watch include Qibin Group and Xinyi Glass, as the market anticipates a stabilization in prices [43]. Fiberglass Sector - The report notes expectations for price increases in both coarse and fine yarns as downstream demand begins to recover [44]. - The average price for fiberglass coarse yarn remains stable at 3,500 RMB per ton, with potential upward pressure due to cost increases [44]. - Key players in this sector include China Jushi, with recommendations to monitor International Composite Materials and Changhai Co., Ltd. [6][7]. Carbon Fiber Sector - Carbon fiber prices are expected to remain stable in the short term, with the rapid development of commercial aerospace potentially driving new demand [6]. - Companies to consider include Zhongfu Shenying and Guangwei Composites, as the sector looks to capitalize on emerging opportunities [6].

从成本与盈利角度，煤炭、纯碱、天然气等建材核心原材料价格中枢回落，有效降低企业生产端成本，增厚企业利润空间，叠加行业供给侧改革持续推进， 错峰生产、产能调控等政策落地，中小落后产能逐步出清，行业集中度不断提升，龙头企业凭借规模、品牌、渠道优势抢占市场份额，盈利修复的确定性显 著增强，而经历长期调整后，建材板块估值处于历史相对低位，安全边际充足，吸引场内资金持续回流，建材ETF(159745)更是获得资金净申购，规模与成 交量同步放大。 近期A股市场顺周期板块持续活跃，建材板块表现尤为突出，建材ETF(159745)盘中强势拉升，涨幅突破2%，成为场内资金重点关注的品种，这一轮上涨并 非偶然，而是多重利好因素共振下的必然结果，既离不开宏观政策的持续发力，也得益于行业基本面的逐步改善，同时叠加资金低位布局的共识，共同推动 建材板块走出强势行情。 从政策层面来看，房地产领域"稳预期、稳销售、稳竣工"的组合政策不断落地，多地优化限购限贷政策，加大保交楼推进力度，城中村改造、保障房建设 等"三大工程"全面铺开，直接带动防水、涂料、管材、瓷砖等消费建材需求回升，为板块提供了最强劲的基本面支撑；与此同时，基建投资持续托底经 ...

化工震荡走强，磷化工领涨，消息面上，2月18日，美国总统特朗普援引《国防生产法》签署行政命 令，将磷元素及草甘膦除草剂提升至国家安全优先事项，指出这两种物资的短缺将对国家安全构成直接 威胁。而作为其核心下游的农药同样开启涨价国家统计局数据显示，截至2月10日，尿素（小颗粒）市 场价为1783.8元/吨，较2025年年末上涨3.25%，较去年同期上涨5.24%；硫酸钾复合肥市场价为3458.9 元/吨，较去年同期上涨16.9%。此外，据Wind数据，2月24日磷酸一铵（55%粉状）市场价3850元/吨， 同比上涨16.67%，有望带动化工板块整体业绩回暖。 而随着AI算力需求的不断提升，有关于光通信上游材料价格也因此获益，玻纤概念延续强势，国际复 材再获20CM涨停，宏和科技、山东玻纤录得4天3板，光纤概念表现亮眼，长飞光纤再度涨停续创新 高，华脉科技、通鼎互联、长江通信等个股涨停。MLCC概念同样走强，风华高科一字涨停，三环集团 涨超16%，国瓷材料等同样涨幅居前。算力链在经历去年的反复演绎后，资金更偏好在上游细分中寻找 预期差，所以相较于基金核心重仓权重，近期产业链中市值偏小的二三线个股更容易受到青睐。不过 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [9] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the strengthening expectation of price increases for electronic fabrics, driven by explosive demand and capacity constraints, indicating a "super cycle" characterized by strong demand rigidity and prolonged duration [5][6] - The report identifies three main lines for 2026: the stock chain, the Africa chain, and the AI chain, suggesting strategic focus areas for investment [8] Summary by Relevant Sections Basic Situation - Cement shipments are experiencing seasonal declines, with an average shipment rate of approximately 9% in key regions, a month-on-month decrease of about 15 percentage points, and a year-on-year decrease of about 4 percentage points [7][22] - Glass inventory has slightly increased, with a total inventory of 51.63 million weight boxes, a month-on-month increase of 2.14 million weight boxes, reflecting a 4.32% growth [7][30] Outlook for 2026 - The stock chain focuses on optimizing demand and clearing supply varieties, with residential renovation demand expected to rise from 50% currently to nearly 70% by 2030 [8] - The Africa chain highlights undervalued growth opportunities in the African market, recommending leading companies such as Keda Manufacturing and Huaxin Cement [8] - The AI chain looks at the industrial upgrade of special electronic fabrics, with a focus on Low-Dk products and domestic substitution opportunities [8] Price and Inventory - The national average price for cement before the festival was 346.29 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.32 yuan/ton and a year-on-year decrease of 47.90 yuan/ton [23] - The national average price for glass before the festival was 63.24 yuan/weight box, with a month-on-month increase of 0.06 yuan/weight box and a year-on-year decrease of 11.07 yuan/weight box [32]

成本端的刚性上涨倒逼企业提价，或进一步放大了板块的盈利预期。自2025年初以来，铂金、叶蜡石等 核心原材料价格同步攀升，大幅压缩了企业盈利空间，提价成为企业维持盈利的必然选择。 2026年2月，国际复材、光远新材等龙头企业率先上调电子布报价，普通电子布涨幅超10%，报价突破 万元关口，达10300–10700元/吨；7628电子布主流价格升至5.1–5.5元/米。据统计，此次为2025年初以 来行业第四次提价，且提价节奏在传统淡季中显著加快。 2月24日，A股玻纤概念迎来强势爆发。东方财富数据显示，截至收盘，玻璃玻纤概念板块整体上涨 6.32%，成交额达170.3亿元。 板块内17只个股均上涨，其中国际复材以19.98%的涨幅强势涨停，收盘价报15.19元，股价续创历史新 高；中国巨石、山东玻纤、宏和科技4天3板；长海股份、中材科技、九鼎新材、振石股份、三峡新材等 龙头个股涨超5%。 作为一种性能优异的无机非金属材料，玻纤广泛应用于建筑、电子电气、风电、新能源汽车、AI等多 个领域，其行业景气度与下游需求及行业供给紧密相关。此次玻纤概念的集体拉升，是供给、需求、成 本等多重因素共振的结果。 从供给端来看，受特 ...

沪深两市3764股上涨，1344股下跌，82股持平。合计成交额2.20万亿元，较前一交易日成交放量约2193.84亿元。 2月24日，马年首个交易日，A 股迎来开门红，三大指数集体大涨，盘中涨超1%。 根据交易所数据，截止收盘，上证指数涨0.87%，报4117.41点；深证成指涨1.36%，报14291.57点；创业板指涨0.99%，报3308.26点。另外沪深300涨 1.01%，科创50跌0.34%。 资金方面，大盘主力资金净流出31.78亿元。电子主力资金净流入55.50亿元居首，其次是有色金属（53.93亿元）、通信设备（48.73亿元）、通信网络设备及 器件（47.88亿元）、通信（41.60亿元）。计算机主力资金净流出133.29亿元居首，其次是传媒（-75.32亿元）、IT服务Ⅱ（-65.06亿元）、IT服务Ⅲ（-65.06 亿元）、软件开发（-56.79亿元）。 | | | 市值 | 公司_ _ _ _ _ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 三环集团 | 16.21% | 1264亿 | MLCC、陶瓷基片、光纤陶瓷插芯等核心j7 | | 润泽科技 | 13.46% ...

化工ETF（159870），联接基金（A类 014942，C类 014943，I类 022792） 万华化学（600309）、盐湖股份（000792）、藏格矿业（000408）、天赐材料（002709）、华鲁恒升 （600426）、巨化股份（600160）、恒力石化（600346）、宝丰能源（600989）、云天化（600096）、 荣盛石化（002493） 截至02月24日09:45，化工ETF(159870.SZ)上涨1.98%，其关联指数细分化工(000813.CSI)上涨1.97%；主 要成分股中，盐湖股份上涨4.52%，云天化上涨8.24%，万华化学上涨1.52%，兴发集团上涨5.98%，龙 佰集团上涨4.58%。 关联产品： 消息面上，1) 美国最高法院裁定特朗普关税政策违法，但新关税框架生效引发市场波动，短期利好非 美资产，化工行业或受益于关税影响减弱及全球经济复苏预期；2) TMP行业因供应端收缩（万华等厂 商退出产能）及需求旺盛（百川股份排产至3月底/4月）推动价格上涨，相关化工企业成本传导顺畅； 3) 电子布与玻纤行业分化，玻纤需求受风电、基建回暖支撑，头部企业通过产能调整应对市场波动， ...

Investment Highlights - The construction sector faced pressure in 2025, with the building materials sector showing signs of bottom recovery, as the building materials sector increased by 22.1%, outperforming the construction decoration sector which only rose by 6.7% [2][15][22]. Construction Sector Analysis - The construction sector is under significant fundamental pressure, with a focus on three main investment directions: overseas expansion through the "Belt and Road" initiative, resource value reassessment, and state-owned enterprise reform [3][5]. - The domestic traditional infrastructure investment growth rate is slowing, and real estate construction continues to weaken, limiting the improvement space for the sector [3][5]. - Companies with business transformation capabilities and those positioned in high-growth niche markets performed well, while engineering consulting firms faced pressure due to local government financial constraints [3][5]. Building Materials Sector Analysis - The building materials sector is experiencing structural differentiation, with some segments expected to reach a turning point, particularly consumer building materials [4][5]. - Despite weak real estate data, the marginal negative impact on the building materials sector has significantly decreased, with supply-side improvements expected to precede demand-side recovery [4][5]. - The cement industry is recovering from price bottoming, while the glass industry remains under pressure, and the fiberglass sector is seeing significant improvements due to structural demand [4][5][41][46]. Investment Recommendations - In the construction sector, focus on leading infrastructure companies benefiting from overseas projects and major engineering, such as China Communications Construction Company, China State Construction Engineering, and China Railway Construction Corporation [5]. - In the building materials sector, attention should be given to leading consumer building material companies like Sangke Tree, Oriental Yuhong, and Beixin Building Materials, as well as cyclical building material leaders like Huaxin Cement and China National Building Material [5]. Belt and Road Initiative - The "Belt and Road" initiative has created significant opportunities for the construction sector, with a notable increase in overseas orders and contracts signed in 2025, amounting to $257.98 billion, a 10.8% increase year-on-year [77][79]. - The demand for infrastructure in countries participating in the initiative is expected to grow rapidly, providing a substantial project pool for construction companies [77][79]. Resource Value Reassessment - The expectation of rising prices for non-ferrous metals is anticipated to benefit state-owned construction companies that have acquired valuable mineral resources through past projects [3][5]. State-Owned Enterprise Reform - Policies promoting the securitization of state-owned assets and mergers and acquisitions are expected to create value reassessment opportunities for state-owned construction companies with quality assets [3][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Market Weight" rating for the building materials industry, indicating that the industry index is expected to perform within ±10% of the market index over the next six months [46]. Core Insights - The building materials industry is experiencing an optimization in supply and demand dynamics due to the "anti-involution" policies, with expectations for price increases in electronic fabrics [2][4]. - The cement sector is anticipated to see a further contraction in total production capacity in 2026, driven by regulatory measures and a potential recovery in real estate sales in key cities [4][39]. - The flat glass market is showing signs of recovery with a slight increase in production and prices, although short-term demand remains weak due to seasonal factors [4][40]. - The photovoltaic glass market is facing challenges with excess supply and ongoing losses, but long-term demand is expected to be supported by the development of new energy bases [4][40]. - The glass fiber industry is in a structural recovery phase, with increasing demand for high-end products driven by advancements in AI and 5G technologies [4][40]. Summary by Sections Cement - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has implemented measures to control cement production capacity, leading to an expected reduction in total capacity in 2026 [4][39]. - Recent data indicates a recovery in real estate sales, which, combined with major infrastructure projects, may improve the supply-demand balance in the cement industry [4][39]. - Recommended stocks include Shangfeng Cement, Taipai Group, and Huaxin Cement, which have favorable fundamentals and high dividend yields [4][39]. Glass and Fiberglass - The flat glass production in 2025 is projected to be 97,591 million weight boxes, a 3% decrease year-on-year, but December 2025 saw a 3.4% increase compared to the previous year [4][40]. - The price of float glass has shown a slight recovery, with expectations for price stabilization due to supply-side adjustments [4][40]. - The fiberglass market is benefiting from increased demand for low-DK glass fabrics, with Taiwanese manufacturers shifting production to meet this demand [4][40]. - Recommended stocks in the fiberglass sector include China Jushi, which is expected to benefit from the structural recovery in the industry [6][40]. Consumer Building Materials - Leading companies like Keshun and Sankeshu have announced price increases due to rising raw material costs, indicating a trend of price stabilization in the industry [6][42]. - The demand for new construction is weakening, but renovation and urban renewal projects are expected to drive growth [6][42]. - Recommended stocks include Beixin Building Materials, Tubaobao, and Sankeshu, which are well-positioned to recover ahead of their peers [6][42].