广信股份 20250820 摘要 2025 上半年广信股份业绩同比下滑 17%，主因草甘膦价格波动、国际 油价下调及关税政策不确定性，其中草甘膦价格在 5 月中旬开始上涨， 但此前公司以每吨 2.3 万元的价格销售，导致亏损和开工率降低。 广信股份二三季度营业成本下降超 1.5 亿元，主要得益于上游原材料价 格下降，特别是石油价格波动带来的整体成本降低。若石油价格维持稳 定，公司有望维持较低的营业成本。 草甘膦自 6 月以来价格强势，已达每吨 2.6 万元左右。一季度全行业亏 损，但随着涨价，公司开工率有所恢复。若供需稳定且全球经济形势稳 定，预计草甘膦市场将保持强劲，但需警惕行业竞争和国际形势不确定 性。 广信股份二季度消耗草甘膦库存约 5,000 吨，剩余两三千吨。检修预计 9 月底完成，新工艺加快投放市场。通过国内采购稳定客户关系。 敌草隆生产企业国内较少，竞争格局集中，供应相对稳定，但面临安全 事故和政策变化风险。 广信股份盈利稳定，满负荷运行，每季度平均产量约 2,500 吨，毛利率 维持在 30%以上。国内市场主要由广信股份、新安股份和江苏快达主导。 广信股份主力原药产品出口占销售总额约 1/3， ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's Q2 performance met expectations, with a continued recovery in industry sentiment [1] - The agricultural pesticide industry is experiencing a recovery, with inventory depletion largely completed and downstream demand gradually improving [5] - The company is leveraging its integrated supply chain advantages to maintain stable profitability despite challenges in raw material prices and sales volume [5] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2025H1 was 1,890 million yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 17.4% [4] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025H1 was 351 million yuan, down 15% year-on-year [4] - The company forecasts net profits of 740 million yuan, 902 million yuan, and 1,067 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 15, 12, and 10 [5][6] - The gross margin for Q2 was 30.92%, showing a year-on-year increase of 0.61 percentage points [5] Market Data - As of August 19, 2025, the closing price was 12.03 yuan, with a market capitalization of 10,951 million yuan [1] - The stock has a dividend yield of 2.24% based on the most recent dividend announcement [1] - The company’s price-to-book ratio is 1.1, indicating a reasonable valuation relative to its net assets [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Buy" with a target price of RMB 13.30 [1][4][6] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of RMB 1.89 billion for H1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 17%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 350 million, down 15% year-on-year. The second quarter showed a revenue of RMB 910 million, a decrease of 15% year-on-year and 7.5% quarter-on-quarter, but a net profit increase of 1.4% year-on-year and 18% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The decline in pesticide prices due to insufficient demand and global economic slowdown has impacted the company's gross margin, which decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 30.7% in H1 2025 [2] - Recent price increases for key products like glyphosate suggest potential improvement in the agricultural chemical industry, driven by overseas demand and possible domestic supply reductions [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - H1 2025 revenue was RMB 1.89 billion, down 17% year-on-year, with a net profit of RMB 350 million, down 15% year-on-year. The company exceeded profit expectations due to improved cost control and profit structure optimization [1] - The gross margin for H1 2025 was 30.7%, reflecting a 0.5 percentage point decline year-on-year, attributed to increased market competition and falling pesticide prices [2] Market Outlook - As of August 19, 2025, prices for key products have shown signs of recovery, with glyphosate prices increasing by 8% since the end of June. This indicates a potential improvement in the agricultural chemical market [3] - The company expects future market conditions to improve as demand increases and supply constraints may arise [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is RMB 860 million, RMB 980 million, and RMB 1.11 billion respectively, representing year-on-year growth rates of 11%, 14%, and 13% [4] - The estimated EPS for the same years is projected to be RMB 0.95, RMB 1.08, and RMB 1.22, with a valuation based on a PE ratio of 14 times for 2025, leading to a target price of RMB 13.30 [4]

Group 1: Securities Industry - The securities industry is experiencing a significant performance increase, with a projected net profit growth of 94% year-on-year for 31 listed brokers in H1 2025, driven by a recovery in the capital market and policy support [6][7][21] - The number of new A-share accounts opened in H1 2025 reached 12.6 million, a year-on-year increase of 32.8%, indicating heightened market participation [7] - Daily trading volume in H1 2025 increased by 61% year-on-year to 1.39 trillion yuan, reflecting improved market activity [7] - The underwriting of IPOs and refinancing in H1 2025 saw a year-on-year increase of 4% and 26%, respectively, with total underwriting amounts reaching 355 billion yuan and 6.326 trillion yuan [7] - The bond underwriting market also showed robust activity, with a total underwriting scale of 7.5 trillion yuan in H1 2025, up 22.3% year-on-year [7] - Mergers and acquisitions in the industry have led to significant profit increases, with Guotai Junan and Haitong Securities reporting net profit growth of 205%-218% in H1 2025 due to consolidation effects [8][21] - Compliance and risk control measures have been effectively implemented, allowing firms like Huaxi Securities to return to profitability, with expected net profit growth of 1025%-1354% in H1 2025 [9][21] Group 2: Food and Beverage Industry - The food and beverage sector saw a 0.68% increase last week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.41 percentage points, ranking 14th among 31 sectors [12][13] - The liquor industry is under pressure, with June retail sales of tobacco and alcohol declining by 0.7% year-on-year, indicating weak demand [13] - Major liquor companies are expected to report varying degrees of decline in H1 2025, with traditional consumption scenarios struggling [13] - The beer sector is anticipated to recover, with low inventory levels and improved sales expected due to seasonal demand and cost reductions [14] - The snack segment is experiencing high growth, driven by strong product categories and new channel developments, particularly in health-oriented products [15][16] Group 3: Agricultural Chemicals Industry - Guangxin Co., a major player in the agricultural chemicals sector, is optimizing its integrated production chain based on phosgene, with a production capacity of 320,000 tons per year [18][19] - The agricultural chemicals market is currently at a relative bottom, with prices expected to rise as global inventory levels decrease and outdated capacities are phased out [19] - The company has a strong cash flow position, with 8.685 billion yuan in liquid assets, supporting its long-term development and cost optimization [19][20]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [7]. Core Views - The company is positioned at the bottom of the pesticide industry cycle, leveraging its integrated production chain based on phosgene to explore new opportunities [4]. - The overall pesticide prices are at a relatively low point, with expectations for recovery to enhance profitability [7]. - The company has a robust cash flow, which supports the upgrading of its industrial chain and optimizes costs [7]. Summary by Sections 1. Complete Industrial Chain Supports Rapid Development - The company is one of the largest domestic producers of pesticide raw materials and intermediates based on phosgene, forming a complete industrial chain from raw materials to intermediates to agricultural products [12]. - The company has a stable shareholding structure, with the actual controllers holding a high concentration of shares, which is beneficial for long-term development [17]. - The company has ample funds, with a total of 8.685 billion yuan in cash and other liquid assets by 2024, providing sufficient financial support for long-term construction and development [23]. 2. Steady Development of the Pesticide Sector - The pesticide sector is experiencing price recovery from a low point, which is expected to enhance profits [7]. - The company is a leading producer of the fungicides carbendazim and methyl thiophanate, with significant production capacity [32]. - The company is among the first in China to achieve production of the herbicide dicamba, holding a leading position in domestic production capacity [45]. 3. Leveraging Phosgene Resources for Industrial Chain Expansion - The company is a leader in the phosgene-based pesticide industry, with a high entry barrier for phosgene production [7]. - Phosgene resources are scarce, and the company has a diverse range of downstream products [7]. - Phosgene can be used to produce isocyanates, which have excellent performance in modified products, providing new directions for industrial development [7]. 4. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve total revenue of 50.21 billion yuan, 54.49 billion yuan, and 59.67 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 8.15%, 8.52%, and 9.51% respectively [7]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 9.39 billion yuan, 11.18 billion yuan, and 12.26 billion yuan for the same period, with growth rates of 20.59%, 19.07%, and 9.62% respectively [7]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 1.03 yuan, 1.23 yuan, and 1.35 yuan, corresponding to price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 11.17, 9.38, and 8.55 [7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [6] Core Views - The company's Q1 2025 performance met expectations, with revenue of 3.241 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.04%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 435 million yuan, a slight increase of 1.35% [1] - The industry is gradually stabilizing, and the company experienced good sales growth in Q1, particularly in its raw materials business, which was the main driver of revenue growth [1][2] - The company maintained good cost control, with a reduction in total expenses compared to the previous year, positively impacting net profit [3] - The company is advancing its projects in Liaoning, which are expected to optimize product layout and create new growth points for sustainable development [3] Financial Summary - For 2025-2027, the projected net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 1.47 billion yuan, 1.78 billion yuan, and 2 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a positive growth outlook [3] - The company's revenue for 2025 is estimated at 12.86 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 23.23% compared to 2024 [5] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be 3.61 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 14.44 [5] Sales and Pricing - In Q1, the company achieved sales volumes of 28,700 tons for raw materials and 15,400 tons for formulations, representing increases of 14.8% and 2.8% year-on-year respectively [2] - The average prices for raw materials and formulations in Q1 were 63,000 yuan and 56,600 yuan, showing declines of 8.8% and 1.6% year-on-year [2] Cost Control and Project Development - The company reduced its sales expenses by approximately 1.65 million yuan year-on-year, while management and R&D expenses increased [3] - The first phase of the Liaoning project has been completed and is in the process of trial production, with several products already meeting quality standards [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Accumulate" with a target price of 12.35 RMB [7][8]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 4.64 billion RMB in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 21%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 780 million RMB, down 46% year-on-year. The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a net profit of 200 million RMB, which was an increase of 77% year-on-year and 26% quarter-on-quarter. The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.27 RMB per share for 2024, with a payout ratio of 32% [1][2]. - The agricultural chemical prices are currently in a bottom consolidation phase, and there is an expectation for improvement in market conditions in the future, leading to a maintained "Accumulate" rating [1][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's main agricultural chemical revenue was 2.18 billion RMB, down 9% year-on-year, with a sales volume of 85,000 tons, up 37% year-on-year, and an average price of 26,000 RMB per ton, down 34% year-on-year. The overall gross margin decreased by 7.1 percentage points to 30.7% due to market demand issues and increased shipping costs [2][3]. - For Q1 2025, the main agricultural chemical revenue was 480 million RMB, up 8% year-on-year, with an average price increase of 14% to 32,000 RMB per ton. The main agricultural intermediate revenue was 450 million RMB, down 4% year-on-year, with a sales volume increase of 34% to 215,000 tons [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted downwards to 860 million RMB and 980 million RMB, respectively, reflecting a decrease of 16% and 27%. The net profit for 2027 is projected to be 1.11 billion RMB, with expected growth rates of 11%, 14%, and 13% for 2025 to 2027 [4][6]. - The estimated EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 0.95 RMB, 1.08 RMB, and 1.22 RMB, respectively. The company is given a valuation of 13 times PE for 2025, leading to a target price of 12.35 RMB [4][6].

二、主要产品的价格变动情况（不含税） | 主要产品 | 2024 年度平均售 价（元/吨） | 2023 年度平均售 价（元/吨） | 变动比率（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 杀菌剂 | 87,729.51 | 108,172.38 | -18.90 | | 杀虫剂 | 80,337.15 | 91,929.03 | -12.61 | | 其它 | 57,665.09 | 85,638.13 | -32.66 | 证券代码：605033 证券简称：美邦股份 公告编号：2025-013 陕西美邦药业集团股份有限公司 2024 年年度主要经营数据公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 根据上海证券交易所《上海证券交易所上市公司自律监管指引第3号行业信 息披露：第十三号——化工》和相关通知的要求，陕西美邦药业集团股份有限公 司（以下简称"公司"）现将2024年年度主要经营数据披露如下： 陕西美邦药业集团股份有限公司董事会 2025 年 4 月 25 日 三、主要原材料的价格变动 ...