期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 宝城期货甲醇早报-2026-03-03 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 甲醇 2605 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 强势 | 强势运行 | 地缘风险扰动，甲醇强势运行 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 < END > 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 甲醇（MA） 日内观点：强势 中期观点：震荡 仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议 参考观点：强势运行 核心逻辑：随着美以向伊朗发动军事袭击，中东地缘风险快速升温，伊朗宣布封锁霍尔木兹海峡， 原油和甲醇等能源物资无法从中东向外运输，甲醇溢价或将大幅升温。由于伊朗 ...

期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货甲醇早报-2026-03-02 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 甲醇 2605 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 强势 | 强势运行 | 地缘风险扰动，甲醇强势运行 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- < END > 仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 甲醇（MA） 日内观 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The report predicts that the methanol 2605 contract will show a weak - running trend, with short - term and medium - term trends being oscillatory and the intraday trend being weak. The core logic is that although overseas supply "hard contraction" provides support, the approaching Spring Festival makes the market cautious, reducing risk preference and leading to a weak - oscillatory trend in methanol futures [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog 3.1 Time - cycle Viewpoints - **Short - term**: The short - term view of methanol 2605 is oscillatory [1]. - **Medium - term**: The medium - term view of methanol 2605 is oscillatory [1]. - **Intraday**: The intraday view of methanol 2605 is weak, and it is expected to run weakly [1][5]. 3.2 Driving Logic - **Positive Factor**: Overseas supply "hard contraction" is the key factor supporting the upward movement of methanol prices. Iran, a major import source, is in the stage of winter natural gas supply guarantee and production restriction. Most methanol plants have reduced production or shut down, and the output is at a low level within the year. China's imports may decline significantly in January and February, resulting in tight external supply [5]. - **Negative Factor**: As the Spring Festival approaches, market trading becomes more cautious, risk preference decreases, causing the domestic methanol futures to show a weak - oscillatory trend on Thursday night, and it is expected to maintain this pattern on Friday [5].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The methanol 2605 contract is expected to run strongly, with short - term and medium - term trends being volatile and the intraday trend being bullish. The overall view is that the methanol futures will maintain a volatile and bullish pattern on Tuesday, February 10, 2026 [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Price Trend and View - **Short - term**: The methanol 2605 contract is expected to be volatile (within one week) [1]. - **Medium - term**: The methanol 2605 contract is expected to be volatile (from two weeks to one month) [1]. - **Intraday**: The methanol 2605 contract is expected to be bullish, and the overall reference view is a bullish run [1][5]. 3.2 Core Logic - **Supply - side factor**: Overseas supply has a "hard contraction". Iran, the main source of imports, is in the stage of natural gas supply guarantee and production limitation in winter. Most methanol plants have reduced production or shut down, and the output is at a low level for the year. China's methanol imports may decline significantly in January and February, leading to tight external supply [5]. - **Geopolitical factor**: Due to the large differences between the US and Iran, the "pizza index" of the US Pentagon has risen again, increasing geopolitical risks. Although the domestic methanol futures showed a volatile and bearish trend on the night session of Monday, the downside space of the futures price is limited [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The methanol 2605 contract is expected to run strongly in the short - term, with short - term and medium - term trends being volatile and the intraday trend being strong [1][5] 3. Summary of Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Time Cycle Explanation - Short - term refers to within one week, medium - term refers to two weeks to one month [1] 3.2 Price Change Calculation Method - For varieties with night trading, the starting price is the night trading closing price; for those without night trading, the starting price is the previous day's closing price. The ending price is the day's daytime closing price to calculate the price change [2] 3.3 Strength and Weakness Criteria - A decline greater than 1% is considered weak, a decline of 0 - 1% is considered weakly, a rise of 0 - 1% is considered strongly, and a rise greater than 1% is considered strong. The strong/weak concept only applies to the intraday view [3][4] 3.4 Driving Logic of Methanol Price - The most critical factor supporting the upward movement of methanol prices recently is the "hard contraction" of overseas supply. Iran, as the main import source, is in the stage of winter natural gas supply guarantee and production restriction, with most methanol plants reducing or halting production. China's methanol imports may decline significantly in January - February. Geopolitical risks are rising, which boosted the domestic methanol futures to maintain a volatile and strong trend on the night of last Friday [5]

1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The methanol 2605 contract is expected to run strongly, with a short - term and medium - term outlook of oscillation and an intraday view of being on the strong side [1][5]. - The recent "hard contraction" of overseas supply is the strongest support for the upward movement of methanol prices. The supply in Iran, a major import source, is severely disrupted. The reduction of domestic port methanol inventory has led to the recovery of port spot prices and stronger basis, which has boosted bullish confidence in the futures market. It's predicted that domestic methanol futures may maintain an oscillatory and strong pattern on Wednesday [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog 3.1 Time - period Views - Short - term (within one week): The methanol 2605 contract is in an oscillatory state [1]. - Medium - term (two weeks to one month): The methanol 2605 contract is in an oscillatory state [1]. - Intraday: The methanol 2605 contract is on the strong side [1][5]. 3.2 Core Logic - The digestion of bearish sentiment has led to the stabilization of methanol's oscillation [1]. - The "hard contraction" of overseas supply, especially the supply disruption in Iran, is the key support for the upward movement of methanol prices. The reduction of domestic port inventory has driven the recovery of spot prices, strengthened the basis, and enhanced bullish confidence in the futures market [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The methanol 2605 contract is expected to run weakly in the short - term, with a short - term view of oscillation, a medium - term view of oscillation, and an intraday view of weakness [1][5] - Due to the cooling of geopolitical risks, the methanol futures are expected to maintain a weak pattern on Monday, but the recent overseas supply "hard contraction" has provided strong support for the methanol price [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Time - period and Viewpoint Definitions - Short - term refers to within one week, medium - term refers to two weeks to one month, and intraday represents the current trading day [1] - For intraday views, a decline greater than 1% is considered weak, a decline of 0 - 1% is considered slightly weak, a rise of 0 - 1% is considered slightly strong, and a rise greater than 1% is considered strong. Short - term and medium - term views do not make such distinctions [3][4] 3.2 Price - driving Logic of Methanol - The key factor supporting the recent upward movement of methanol prices is the "hard contraction" of overseas supply. Iran, a major import source, is experiencing serious supply disruptions [5] - The reduction of methanol inventory at domestic ports has led to the recovery of port spot prices and a stronger basis, which has boosted the confidence of long - position holders in the futures market [5] - Due to the cooling of geopolitical risks and a weaker oil price, the bullish sentiment in the domestic energy and chemical sector has diminished, causing the domestic methanol futures to trade weakly and close slightly lower on the night session of last Friday. It is expected to maintain a weak pattern on Monday [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Investment Rating for the Industry No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The methanol 2605 contract is expected to run strongly in the short - term, with a short - term outlook of oscillation, a medium - term outlook of oscillation, and an intraday outlook of strength [1][5]. - The methanol futures in the domestic market are likely to maintain an oscillating and strengthening trend on Thursday, January 29, 2026 [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Time - cycle Viewpoints - **Short - term**: The methanol 2605 contract is expected to oscillate [1]. - **Medium - term**: The medium - term view for methanol is oscillation [1][5]. - **Intraday**: The intraday view for methanol is strength, and the reference view is that it will run strongly [1][5]. 3.2 Core Logic - Overseas supply "hard - contraction" is the strongest support factor for the recent upward movement of methanol prices, with Iran, a major import source, facing serious supply disruptions [5]. - The depletion of methanol inventory at domestic ports has led to a recovery in port spot prices, a stronger basis, and increased confidence among long - position holders in the futures market [5]. - Geopolitical risks, such as the arrival of a US military aircraft carrier in the Middle East and Iran's tough statements, may further intensify the US - Iran conflict, increasing the premium on methanol [1][5]. - Although the domestic methanol futures opened high and closed low on Wednesday night with a slight decline, the retracement space was limited [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The methanol futures market is expected to maintain a volatile and bullish trend. In the short - term (within a week), it will be volatile; in the medium - term (two weeks to one month), it will also be volatile, and intraday it is expected to be bullish [1][5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Contents Price and Market Outlook - Methanol 2605 is expected to be volatile in the short - term, volatile in the medium - term, and bullish intraday, with a reference view of bullish operation [1]. - It is predicted that domestic methanol futures on Wednesday will maintain a volatile and bullish trend [5]. Driving Logic - The "hard contraction" of overseas supply is the strongest support for the upward movement of methanol prices recently. Iran, the main import source, is facing serious supply disruptions [5]. - The depletion of domestic port methanol inventories has led to the recovery of port spot prices, strengthening the basis, which has enhanced the confidence of long - positions in the futures market [5]. - The arrival of a US military aircraft carrier in the Middle East and Iran's strong statements may lead to an escalation of the US - Iran conflict, increasing the premium of crude oil [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The methanol 2605 contract is expected to be in a sideways trend in the short - and medium - term, while showing a relatively strong performance intraday. It will run with an upward bias overall [1][5]. - The main factors driving the upward movement of methanol prices are the "hard contraction" of overseas supply, the reduction of domestic port methanol inventory, the strengthening of the spot market, and the intensification of geopolitical risks in the Middle East [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Time - cycle Views - **Short - term**: The methanol 2605 contract is expected to move sideways, within a week [1]. - **Medium - term**: It is also expected to move sideways, from two weeks to one month [1]. - **Intraday**: It is expected to be relatively strong [1][5]. 3.2 Core Logic - **Supply**: Overseas supply has a "hard contraction", especially in Iran, a major source of imports, which is facing serious supply disruptions [5]. - **Inventory and Spot Market**: The reduction of domestic port methanol inventory has led to the recovery of port spot prices, strengthening the basis, and boosting the confidence of long - position holders in the futures market [5]. - **Geopolitical Risk**: The U.S. military aircraft carrier bypassed the Strait of Malacca and headed for the Middle East battlefield, and Iran issued tough statements, intensifying geopolitical risks in the Middle East and supporting the methanol market [5]. 3.3 Market Performance Forecast - On Wednesday night, domestic methanol futures maintained a stable sideways movement with a slight rebound. It is expected that on Thursday, domestic methanol futures will maintain a sideways and relatively strong trend [5].