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公用事业与环保行业2026年投资策略:能源变革持续推进,清洁能源&环保兼具成长与公用事业属性
Guoxin Securities· 2025-11-17 07:56
Group 1: Power Industry - The unified electricity market is accelerating construction, promoting high-quality development of renewable energy. The basic rules of the unified electricity market have been established, with a comprehensive coverage of the spot market and a market-driven pricing mechanism for renewable energy [1][24][29] - In the first three quarters of 2025, the national industrial power generation reached 72,557 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 1.6%, while the total social electricity consumption was 77,675 billion kWh, up 4.6% [20][22] - The electricity supply-demand situation is overall loose, but the peak load is tight, with the maximum electricity load reaching 1.506 billion kW on July 16, 2025, an increase of 0.55 million kW compared to the previous year [20][22] Group 2: Renewable Energy - The green electricity price has reached a bottoming point, with the core uncertainty regarding electricity prices gradually clarified, indicating that the industry's darkest hour is coming to an end [2][30] - The wind and solar installed capacity exceeded 1.7 billion kW in the first three quarters of 2025, accounting for nearly one-quarter of total social electricity consumption [36][40] - The challenges of renewable energy consumption remain, with increasing abandonment rates for wind and solar energy, indicating a mismatch between renewable energy development and consumption capacity [41][43] Group 3: Thermal Power - The transition of thermal power to a regulating power source is accelerating, with coal prices expected to support long-term contract prices, stabilizing thermal power profitability [2][10] - The capacity price for coal power is expected to increase further in 2026, promoting stable profitability for coal power [2][10] Group 4: Hydropower - Hydropower is experiencing a widening interest margin, with ample cash flow and stable performance supporting high dividends [3][10] - The core growth points for hydropower performance include increased installed capacity, rising electricity prices, and reduced financial costs and depreciation [3][10] Group 5: Nuclear Power - The nuclear power market is facing downward pressure on market prices, but there is a rebound in Guangdong's nuclear power pricing, indicating a strong momentum for new nuclear power development [3][10] - The approval of new nuclear units is regularized, with 10 units approved within the year, indicating a steady growth trajectory for the nuclear power sector [3][10] Group 6: Natural Gas - Domestic natural gas supply and demand are relatively loose, with a decline in apparent consumption by 0.2% year-on-year in the first nine months of 2025 [4][10] - The global natural gas market is entering a supply expansion phase, with overseas gas prices expected to decline [4][10] Group 7: Green Methanol - The promotion of green electricity consumption and the replacement of shipping fuels are expected to open up growth space for green methanol [4][9] - As of August 2025, there are 173 signed/registered green methanol projects in China, with a capacity of 53.46 million tons per year, indicating rapid growth in project numbers and capacity [9][10] Group 8: Environmental Protection - The water and waste incineration industries are entering a mature phase, with significant improvements in free cash flow [9][10] - The domestic waste oil resource utilization industry is expected to benefit from the EU's SAF mandatory blending policy, increasing demand for raw materials [9][10]
中国天楹的“守旧立新”:从垃圾焚烧到氢能革命
Quan Jing Wang· 2025-04-28 13:57
由于海外EPC项目客户要求,公司在2024年一季度集中交付并结算利润,形成了较高的基数,故而公司 25年一季度的归母净利润有较为显著的下滑,但公司仍积极推进海外项目,全年的业绩仍然可以期待。 中国天楹以环保业务起家,深耕垃圾焚烧发电领域,构建了世界一流的生活垃圾处理处置链,原生垃圾 焚烧、飞灰等离子体熔融、炉渣资源化处置,从垃圾到资源,开创一站式三化处理新模式。 28日盘后,中国天楹(000035)披露2024年年报和2025年一季报。公司2024年营收56.67亿元,同比小 幅增长,归母净利润2.799亿元,同比减少17%。但利润下滑主要由于此前公告的子公司Firion于去年10 月向西班牙税务部门补缴1.86亿元税款所致,若剔除该"一次性"影响,公司2024年度实现归母净利润 4.63亿元,同比增长37.41%。 公司也是环保行业最早出海的企业之一,积极布局"一带一路"国家。作为国际领先的环境综合服务商, 中国天楹此前已通过多个绿色环保项目深入到越南经济社会之中,包括越南河内市日处理规模4000吨垃 圾焚烧发电项目,该项目作为行业内的标杆项目,被誉为"中越合作的成功典范"。同时,中国天楹清化 省、富寿省垃 ...