证券研究报告 | 行业点评 | 传媒 传媒 报告日期：2025 年 06 月 17 日 看好电影衍生品市场，光线、果麦等相关营收或高增 ——行业点评报告 投资要点 我们认为未来电影市场规模非票收入发展将逐步加快，而非票收入中电影衍生 品收入或为最重要的组成部分。 光线传媒等龙头公司电影及其他文娱衍生品销售额展望乐观 例如，在服装零售领域，溢出分成比率可能为 15%-20%。我们参考卡游招股说 明书，其 IP 授权费用占营收比为 5.8%，因此我们保守将电影衍生品的 IP 分成比 例假设为 5%-10%。 对应估值：我们参考卡泡泡玛特、布鲁克、万代南梦宫的估值（附表 1），假设 估值水平为 30-40 倍 P/E，并假设 IP 授权的成本（不包括前期开发）可忽略不 计。最终由"销售额×分成比例×估值"公式估算出 1000 亿电影衍生品销售额 对应市值应为 750-2000 亿元，中性假设下为 1313 亿元，详细测速情况请参考附 表 2 投资建议： 我们重点推荐电影衍生品龙头光线传媒，同时建议关注其他重点影视、动画公 司，同时建议关注果麦文化、上海电影、万达电影等。 风险提示 宏观经济增速下滑导致文娱类消费受损 ...

Core Insights - Wanda Film reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit for Q1 2025, with operating income reaching 4.709 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 23.23%, and net profit attributable to shareholders at 830 million yuan, reflecting a remarkable increase of 154.72% [1] - The company is focusing on its "super entertainment space" strategy, enhancing IP incubation and operations, and creating a diversified business system centered around high-quality IP [1] - The sales of derivative products have surged, and non-ticket revenue has significantly increased, injecting new momentum into the optimization of the business structure and profitability [1] Business Strategy - Wanda Film is deepening its operations around IP value, continuously expanding its derivative product system, and building an integrated online and offline consumption ecosystem, which has led to steady growth in non-ticket business scale and gross margin [1] - In 2024, Wanda Film collaborated with top IPs such as "Genshin Impact" and "Pop Mart" to launch over a hundred derivative product SKUs, with the "Four Happiness God of Wealth" derivative product selling out 210,000 units within seven days during the 2025 Spring Festival [1] - The company plans to launch collaborative IP products with top brands like "Sanrio" and "Identity V," and develop self-researched trendy art IP products such as AI dolls and scented products [2] Market Expansion - Wanda Film is leveraging its cinema advantages to integrate IP operations into the cinema experience through themed screening rooms, limited-time events, and cross-industry collaborations to activate offline traffic [2] - The company is accelerating the incubation of its own IP resources through initiatives like the "Time Family" original character collection plan, strengthening its cultural and creative industry chain layout [2] - In terms of sales channels, Wanda Film is expanding its presence on new media platforms like Douyin and Xiaohongshu, and has opened 30 "Time Art" stores nationwide, offering products that encompass film culture, art collections, and quality living, successfully bridging IP content with physical consumption scenarios [2]

◎记者杨翔菲 4月26日，第十五届北京国际电影节（下称"北影节"）落下帷幕。上海证券报记者在郎园Station、怀柔 中国影都等地了解到，在为期九天的光影旅程中，全球影人汇聚北京，与电影有关的展映、论坛活动火 热举办。北影节不仅打造了一场电影IP的文化盛宴，更吸引众多行业人士探讨电影的未来之路。 "内容+"讲好中国故事 动画电影《哪吒之魔童闹海》（下称《哪吒2》）取得的成功成为北影节期间电影人热议的焦点。 IMAXChina首席执行官孟丹青说："对于电影产业来说，故事是核心，《哪吒2》让从业者意识到故事 好，回报就好。"华人文化集团公司副总裁应旭珺表示："《哪吒2》把全世界的观众带到电影院，让人 们再次看到了中国电影的魅力、电影院的魅力。未来世界电影舞台上，中国电影和中国电影人是非常有 机会的。" 在郎园Station，130家文创艺术摊位以电影IP为核心，呈现多元艺术形态。30家京津冀博物馆及文博机 构联合参展，推出"影视同款"历史珍品复刻文创，让影迷在逛市集的同时感受文化魅力。 由上市公司博纳影业、中国电影等主办的嘉年华也在北影节期间火热上演。在中影电影制片厂"江南水 乡"外景地，市民游客深入体验"电影里 ...