Group 1: AI Capital Expenditure Impact - In Q2 2025, capital expenditure by the "MAG 7" companies in the US approached $100 billion, doubling from three years prior, with a year-on-year growth rate of 64.8%[2] - From Q4 2022 to Q2 2025, US computer equipment investment grew by 61%, significantly outpacing other sectors[2] - AI-related investments have become a major driver of the US stock market, with MAG 7 capital expenditure accounting for 30% of the S&P 500[2] Group 2: Economic Contribution of AI Investment - In the first half of 2025, AI investment contributed 1.0 percentage points to GDP growth, nearly matching the 1.1 percentage points contributed by consumer spending[3] - The net investment in computer equipment has shown a negative contribution to the economy since 2023, highlighting the impact of imports[3] Group 3: Productivity and Historical Comparison - The probability of the US being in a "low growth" phase for productivity is as high as 85% as of Q2 2025[4] - From 2019 to 2024, US labor productivity growth averaged 2.1%, lower than the 2.2% and 2.7% growth rates seen in the previous two decades[4] - Since Q4 2022, AI investment as a percentage of GDP has only increased by 0.4 percentage points, compared to a 1.4 percentage point increase during the last tech revolution[4] Group 4: Future Outlook and Challenges - The current AI investment cycle is supported by strong financial fundamentals, with MAG 7 companies showing better cash flow and profitability metrics than during the dot-com bubble[5] - Potential headwinds for future AI capital expenditure include declining free cash flow, pressure on profits, and rising electricity demand for data centers[5]

文 | 赵伟、陈达飞、赵宇、王茂宇、李欣越 联系人 | 王茂宇 摘要 中观视角下，美国AI相关投资远超其他行业，且AI资本开支已是美股重要驱动力。 2022Q4至今，美国电脑设备投资增长61%，远强于其他投资；自2023年以 来，美国头部科技公司贡献了美股大部分涨幅，M7资本开支占标普500比重上升至30%，资本开支与股价同步上行。 宏观视角下，2025年AI投资对经济增速的贡献与居民消费基本持平，但不可忽视进口的拖累。 2025年上半年，美国居民消费、AI投资分别贡献经济增速1.1、 1.0个百分点；但是，自2023年以来，电脑设备"净投资"（投资-进口）对经济呈现负贡献，不可忽视来自于进口的拖累。 （二）美国生产率核算：AI是否提振生产率？ AI革命对生产率的提振效果已有所显现，但空间仍较大。 过去几年，美国劳动生产率增速较疫情前的确有所提升，结构上，也可观察到AI相关产业效率改 善，如数据处理业。但是，截止2025Q2，根据Kahn-Rich生产率趋势模型，美国处于生产率"低增速"阶段的概率仍高达85%。 回顾历史，90年代美国互联网革命的特征为投资火热、生产率提升、成本下降。 1）投资方面，美国信息通 ...