受2021年以来肉羊价格下跌影响，全国肉羊养殖户从2023年开始去产能，2024年后去产能步伐加 快。从肉羊存栏来看，2024年末，我国肉羊存栏量为3亿只，同比下降6.8%，降幅较上年明显扩大。今 年三季度末，肉羊存栏同比下降6.9%。2024年，我国羊肉产量为518万吨，同比下降2.5%。今年前三季 度，羊肉产量341万吨，同比下降4.3%。 另一个原因是羊肉进口减少。海关数据显示，2024年我国进口羊肉36.7万吨，同比下降15.5%；今 年前9个月，我国羊肉累计进口量为27.6万吨。 全国羊肉产量与进口量齐降，导致供给明显减少。今年年初至今，全国肉羊价格与养殖效益实现止 跌回升。今年前10个月，养殖者出栏一只肉羊平均盈利32.08元；10月，养殖者出栏一只肉羊平均盈利 44.19元。 农业农村部发布监测数据显示，11月21日，全国农产品批发市场羊肉平均价格为62.56元/公斤，比9 月30日的62.15元/公斤上涨0.66%。 "肉羊价格有望结束长达4年的下跌，从今年冬季起重新转入上升周期。"农业农村部肉羊监测预警 首席专家肖海峰说。 全国羊肉价格自2021年以来进入下跌周期。不过，今年以来羊肉价格和养 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Views - The agricultural sector, particularly the pig and poultry markets, is experiencing significant price declines, with the agricultural index dropping 2.70% last week, ranking 27th among 31 primary industries [3][12] - The report highlights concerns regarding the ability to reduce pig production capacity, which has led to market volatility and price pressures [4][14] - The "anti-involution" policy is being reinforced, aiming to stabilize pig prices in the future, with recent meetings indicating stricter measures for production capacity reduction [20][21] Summary by Sections Market Review - The agricultural sector faced a substantial decline, with the agricultural index down 2.70%, while the broader market indices fell less significantly [12][14] - Core agricultural segments, including pigs and poultry, saw notable price drops, raising concerns about production capacity adjustments [14] Livestock Industry Tracking Pigs - As of September 21, the average price of pigs was 12.69 yuan/kg, down 0.66 yuan/kg from the previous week, marking a new low for the year [4][17] - The report indicates that the supply of pigs is expected to increase in the second half of 2025, leading to significant supply pressure, particularly in Q4 [17][20] - The profitability of self-bred pigs has turned to losses, with an average loss of 24 yuan per head, while purchased piglets incur a loss of 199 yuan per head [18] Broilers - The price of white feather broiler chicks has shown a slight rebound, reaching 3.5 yuan/chick, supported by pre-holiday stocking demand [5][28] - The average price of broiler meat remains stable at 3.37 yuan/kg, but overall demand has not improved significantly [28] - The report notes a significant decrease in the number of grandparent stock updated, which could impact future supply dynamics [28] Planting Industry Tracking - Sugar prices have adjusted to 5905 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton [32] - The price of imported Brazilian soybeans stands at 3987 yuan/ton, reflecting a 1.4% decrease [32] - Cotton prices have slightly increased to 15300 yuan/ton, while corn prices have decreased to 2325 yuan/ton [32]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry, indicating a "Buy" rating for the sector [2]. Core Insights - In the first half of 2025, the listed companies in the livestock sector experienced a significant recovery in profitability, with a total net profit of 20.78 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 208% [3][14]. - The sub-industries with the highest profit growth included seed industry (+1212%), pig farming (+663%), and agricultural product processing (+60%) [3][15]. - The report highlights a notable divergence in performance among companies within the sector, driven by industry dynamics and operational conditions [3]. Summary by Sections 1. Overview of the Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery Sector - The agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector's net profit for the first half of 2025 reached 20.78 billion yuan, a substantial increase of 208% year-on-year [14]. - The second quarter of 2025 also showed a continued growth trend, with a net profit of 10.84 billion yuan, up 26% year-on-year [18]. 2. Sub-sector Performance Review and Investment Strategy 2.1 Pig Farming - The pig farming sector reported a total revenue of 201.9 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 17.9%, with net profit reaching 15.92 billion yuan, up 865.5% [21]. - Despite a slight decline in pig prices, companies improved profitability through increased volume and reduced costs, with average breeding costs down by 7.2% [21][33]. 2.2 Poultry Farming - The white feather chicken segment showed signs of stabilization, with revenue growth of 0.6% year-on-year, while the yellow feather chicken segment faced significant price declines, leading to a sharp drop in profitability [3][21]. 2.3 Pet Food - The pet food sector saw a revenue increase of 21.4% year-on-year, driven by domestic brand growth and a favorable pricing environment [3][21]. 2.4 Animal Health - The animal health sector experienced a recovery in demand, with total revenue of 8.61 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 26.44% [5][21]. 2.5 Feed - The feed sector's revenue reached 81.91 billion yuan, up 13.3% year-on-year, benefiting from improved profitability in livestock farming [5][21]. 2.6 Seed Industry - The seed industry faced challenges with a revenue decline of 9.7% year-on-year, attributed to falling grain prices and reduced planting enthusiasm among farmers [5][21]. 3. Investment Analysis and Recommendations - The report suggests that the pig farming industry is entering a phase of stable, high-quality development, with potential for significant profit recovery and valuation reassessment for leading companies [4][6]. - The pet food sector is expected to maintain strong growth, supported by increasing pet ownership and spending per pet [4][6].

Group 1 - The average price of live pigs in China as of August 18 is 13.55 yuan/kg, down 0.21 yuan/kg from the previous week, marking a new low for the year [1][2] - Supply-side capacity is being actively released, but demand remains weak, leading to a significant drop in prices, which have fallen below the cost line for some farmers [1][2] - The supply pressure for live pigs is expected to be high in the second half of 2025, particularly in Q4, due to increased breeding stock and piglet numbers [1][2] Group 2 - The price of white feather broiler chicks has risen to 3.80 yuan/chick as of August 15, while the price of broilers has slightly decreased to 3.52 yuan/kg, indicating a mixed market [3] - The increase in chick prices is attributed to a tight supply due to reduced breeding and high culling rates, leading to a decrease in chick availability [3] - The update rate of grandparent stock has significantly declined in the first half of 2025, with a 29.62% year-on-year drop, impacting the overall supply chain [3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Views - The agricultural sector index decreased by 0.14%, ranking 24th among 31 primary industries, while the broader market indices, such as the CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite, increased by 2.37% and 1.70% respectively [12][14] - The report highlights a downward trend in pig prices, with the average price as of August 18 being 13.55 CNY/kg, a decrease of 0.21 CNY/kg from the previous week, marking a new low for the year [5][16] - The report emphasizes the government's commitment to reducing production capacity in the pig farming sector to stabilize prices, with expectations of increased supply pressure in the latter half of 2025 [6][19] Summary by Sections Market Review - The agricultural sector underperformed the market, with a 0.14% decline in the agricultural index, while the broader indices saw gains [12][14] - The pig farming and related feed sectors experienced the largest declines due to falling pig prices [14] Livestock Industry Tracking Pig Farming - The average pig price has been declining, with significant supply but weak demand leading to a challenging market environment [5][16] - As of August 15, self-breeding pig farmers reported an average profit of 28 CNY per head, down 17 CNY from the previous week, while external pig purchases resulted in a loss of 157 CNY per head [17] - The government is enforcing production capacity reduction policies, which are expected to accelerate in the future [18] Broiler Chicken - As of August 15, the price of broiler chicken chicks rose to 3.80 CNY per chick, while the price of broiler chickens was 3.52 CNY per jin, showing a slight decline [31] - The supply of chicks is tight due to reduced breeding and increased culling, leading to a potential slowdown in chick price increases [31] Crop Industry Tracking - Sugar prices have rebounded slightly, with white sugar priced at 6000 CNY/ton as of August 15, an increase of 30 CNY/ton [34] - Soybean prices have seen a minor increase, with the landed price of Brazilian soybeans at 4040 CNY/ton, up 1.8% [34] - Corn prices have slightly decreased, with an average price of 2356 CNY/ton, down 11 CNY from the previous week [34]