证券研究报告：农林牧渔|行业周报 发布时间：2025-09-24 行业投资评级 强于大市|维持 | 行业基本情况 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘点位 | | 2972.06 | | 52 | 周最高 | 3158.8 | | 52 | 周最低 | 2242.07 | 行业相对指数表现 研究所 分析师:王琦 SAC 登记编号:S1340522100001 Email:wangqi2022@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《猪价低位震荡，产能调减政策效果有 所显现》 - 2025.09.09 农林牧渔行业报告 （2025.9.15-2025.9.21） 猪价再创年内新低，"反内卷"再加码 ⚫ 行情回顾：大幅下跌 上周农林牧渔（申万）行业指数跌 2.70%，在申万 31 个一级行业 中涨幅排第 27 位。市场对生猪产能去化能否兑现有较大担忧，生猪、 肉鸡等农业核心板块均大幅下挫。 ⚫ 猪：价格再创年内新低，"反内卷"再加码 截至 9 月 21 日，全国生猪均价 12.69 元/公斤，较上周回落 0.66 元/公斤。周内价格持续下行、继续创年内新低。养殖端出栏积极，造 成市场猪源投放 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry, indicating a "Buy" rating for the sector [2]. Core Insights - In the first half of 2025, the listed companies in the livestock sector experienced a significant recovery in profitability, with a total net profit of 20.78 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 208% [3][14]. - The sub-industries with the highest profit growth included seed industry (+1212%), pig farming (+663%), and agricultural product processing (+60%) [3][15]. - The report highlights a notable divergence in performance among companies within the sector, driven by industry dynamics and operational conditions [3]. Summary by Sections 1. Overview of the Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery Sector - The agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector's net profit for the first half of 2025 reached 20.78 billion yuan, a substantial increase of 208% year-on-year [14]. - The second quarter of 2025 also showed a continued growth trend, with a net profit of 10.84 billion yuan, up 26% year-on-year [18]. 2. Sub-sector Performance Review and Investment Strategy 2.1 Pig Farming - The pig farming sector reported a total revenue of 201.9 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 17.9%, with net profit reaching 15.92 billion yuan, up 865.5% [21]. - Despite a slight decline in pig prices, companies improved profitability through increased volume and reduced costs, with average breeding costs down by 7.2% [21][33]. 2.2 Poultry Farming - The white feather chicken segment showed signs of stabilization, with revenue growth of 0.6% year-on-year, while the yellow feather chicken segment faced significant price declines, leading to a sharp drop in profitability [3][21]. 2.3 Pet Food - The pet food sector saw a revenue increase of 21.4% year-on-year, driven by domestic brand growth and a favorable pricing environment [3][21]. 2.4 Animal Health - The animal health sector experienced a recovery in demand, with total revenue of 8.61 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 26.44% [5][21]. 2.5 Feed - The feed sector's revenue reached 81.91 billion yuan, up 13.3% year-on-year, benefiting from improved profitability in livestock farming [5][21]. 2.6 Seed Industry - The seed industry faced challenges with a revenue decline of 9.7% year-on-year, attributed to falling grain prices and reduced planting enthusiasm among farmers [5][21]. 3. Investment Analysis and Recommendations - The report suggests that the pig farming industry is entering a phase of stable, high-quality development, with potential for significant profit recovery and valuation reassessment for leading companies [4][6]. - The pet food sector is expected to maintain strong growth, supported by increasing pet ownership and spending per pet [4][6].

Group 1 - The average price of live pigs in China as of August 18 is 13.55 yuan/kg, down 0.21 yuan/kg from the previous week, marking a new low for the year [1][2] - Supply-side capacity is being actively released, but demand remains weak, leading to a significant drop in prices, which have fallen below the cost line for some farmers [1][2] - The supply pressure for live pigs is expected to be high in the second half of 2025, particularly in Q4, due to increased breeding stock and piglet numbers [1][2] Group 2 - The price of white feather broiler chicks has risen to 3.80 yuan/chick as of August 15, while the price of broilers has slightly decreased to 3.52 yuan/kg, indicating a mixed market [3] - The increase in chick prices is attributed to a tight supply due to reduced breeding and high culling rates, leading to a decrease in chick availability [3] - The update rate of grandparent stock has significantly declined in the first half of 2025, with a 29.62% year-on-year drop, impacting the overall supply chain [3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Views - The agricultural sector index decreased by 0.14%, ranking 24th among 31 primary industries, while the broader market indices, such as the CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite, increased by 2.37% and 1.70% respectively [12][14] - The report highlights a downward trend in pig prices, with the average price as of August 18 being 13.55 CNY/kg, a decrease of 0.21 CNY/kg from the previous week, marking a new low for the year [5][16] - The report emphasizes the government's commitment to reducing production capacity in the pig farming sector to stabilize prices, with expectations of increased supply pressure in the latter half of 2025 [6][19] Summary by Sections Market Review - The agricultural sector underperformed the market, with a 0.14% decline in the agricultural index, while the broader indices saw gains [12][14] - The pig farming and related feed sectors experienced the largest declines due to falling pig prices [14] Livestock Industry Tracking Pig Farming - The average pig price has been declining, with significant supply but weak demand leading to a challenging market environment [5][16] - As of August 15, self-breeding pig farmers reported an average profit of 28 CNY per head, down 17 CNY from the previous week, while external pig purchases resulted in a loss of 157 CNY per head [17] - The government is enforcing production capacity reduction policies, which are expected to accelerate in the future [18] Broiler Chicken - As of August 15, the price of broiler chicken chicks rose to 3.80 CNY per chick, while the price of broiler chickens was 3.52 CNY per jin, showing a slight decline [31] - The supply of chicks is tight due to reduced breeding and increased culling, leading to a potential slowdown in chick price increases [31] Crop Industry Tracking - Sugar prices have rebounded slightly, with white sugar priced at 6000 CNY/ton as of August 15, an increase of 30 CNY/ton [34] - Soybean prices have seen a minor increase, with the landed price of Brazilian soybeans at 4040 CNY/ton, up 1.8% [34] - Corn prices have slightly decreased, with an average price of 2356 CNY/ton, down 11 CNY from the previous week [34]