Core Viewpoint - The company is transitioning from a decline in its core product, ready-to-drink cocktails, to a focus on whiskey as a new growth engine, with significant investments made in whiskey production and market entry planned for 2025 [1][2][3] Group 1: Company Strategy and Product Development - The company has begun shipping its "Bailide" blended whiskey products in Q1 2025 and launched five new single malt whiskey products in June 2025 [1][2] - The company aims to become a leader in the domestic whiskey market, which is currently dominated by international brands, by focusing on high-quality whiskey production [2][3] - The company has made substantial investments in whiskey production, raising over 21.34 billion yuan through various financing methods to support whiskey aging projects [3][4] Group 2: Market Performance and Financials - The company's ready-to-drink cocktail revenue fell by 7.17% in 2024, with a significant 19.5% decline in Q4 [1][6] - The company’s inventory has surged from 535 million yuan in 2022 to 1.121 billion yuan in Q1 2024, indicating potential overproduction risks [6] - Fixed assets have also increased significantly, reaching 3.676 billion yuan in Q1 2024, which raises concerns about depreciation and impairment risks if whiskey sales do not meet expectations [6] Group 3: Industry Landscape and Competition - The global whiskey market reached a sales value of 144.066 billion USD in 2023, with the Chinese market growing by 11.5% to 2.169 billion USD [3] - Domestic whiskey production is on the rise, with 45 companies either under construction or in production, indicating a highly competitive environment [5] - The company faces competition not only from international giants but also from domestic players like Qingdao Beer and Yanghe, who are also investing in whiskey production [4][5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The demand for pre-mixed cocktails remains weak, while the whiskey business is expected to provide new growth momentum [1][8] - The company has launched its whiskey products, which are anticipated to drive faster revenue growth [6][7] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 3.05 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 720 million yuan, down 11.2% year-on-year [3][4] - For Q4 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 660 million yuan, a decline of 18% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 140 million yuan, an increase of 0.5% year-on-year [3][4] - In Q1 2025, the company recorded operating revenue of 740 million yuan, down 8.1% year-on-year, with a net profit of 180 million yuan, up 7% year-on-year [3][4] Product Performance Summary - The pre-mixed cocktail segment generated revenue of 2.68 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 7.17% year-on-year, with sales volume down 8.81% [4] - The food flavoring segment saw revenue of 337 million yuan, an increase of 6.3% year-on-year, indicating stable growth [4] Channel Performance Summary - Offline retail remains the primary sales channel, contributing 2.71 billion yuan in revenue, a decline of 1.48% year-on-year, accounting for 89.96% of total revenue [4] - Digital retail channels experienced a significant drop in revenue, down 30.75% year-on-year, while the ready-to-drink channel saw a decline of 43.58% [4] Profitability and Cost Analysis - The company's gross margin improved to 69.67% in 2024, up 2.97 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to slight price increases and reduced commercial discounts [5] - The net profit margin for Q4 2024 was 21.88%, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase due to higher other income [5] Future Outlook and Valuation - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to 809 million yuan and 940 million yuan, respectively, reflecting a downward revision of 13% and 12% [8] - The report projects earnings per share (EPS) of 0.77 yuan for 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 34x [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The demand for pre-mixed cocktails remains weak, while the whiskey business is expected to provide new growth momentum [1][8] - The company has experienced a decline in revenue and net profit in 2024, with a year-on-year revenue decrease of 6.6% to 3.05 billion yuan and a net profit decrease of 11.2% to 720 million yuan [3][4] - The launch of whiskey products is anticipated to drive faster revenue growth in the future [6][7] Revenue Performance - In 2024, the pre-mixed cocktails segment generated 2.677 billion yuan in revenue, down 7.17% year-on-year, with sales volume decreasing by 8.81% [4] - The offline retail channel remains the primary sales channel, accounting for 89.96% of total revenue, despite a slight decline of 1.48% year-on-year [4] Profitability Analysis - The company's gross margin improved to 69.67% in 2024, with a notable increase in Q4 gross margin to 68.09% [5] - The net profit margin for Q4 2024 increased significantly to 21.88% year-on-year, attributed to higher other income [5] Future Projections - The company has revised its net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 downwards to 809 million yuan and 940 million yuan, respectively, reflecting a decrease of 13% and 12% from previous estimates [8] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are projected to be 0.77 yuan, 0.90 yuan, and 1.05 yuan, respectively [8] Market Positioning - The whiskey products are targeted at the mid-range market, focusing on young consumers who are new to whiskey [7] - Marketing strategies include online content marketing and offline experiential activities to enhance brand visibility [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (maintained) [2] Core Insights - The company's performance in Q1 2025 met expectations, with a focus on the future sales performance of its whiskey products [7] - The pre-mixed beverage business is under pressure, while the whiskey business is in its early stages and requires monitoring for future sales [7] - The company has a strong brand advantage in the pre-mixed beverage industry and has made significant progress in its product matrix since 2022 [7] Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - Total revenue for 2024 was 3,048 million, a decrease of 6.6% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to the parent company was 719 million, down 11.2% [6][7] - For Q1 2025, total revenue was 737 million, a decline of 8.1% year-on-year, but net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 7.0% to 181 million [7] - The company forecasts net profits of 809 million, 910 million, and 1,022 million for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 12.6%, 12.4%, and 12.3% [7][6] - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 69.67%, an increase of 2.97 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a decrease in raw material prices [7] Business Performance - The pre-mixed beverage and flavoring business generated revenues of 2,677 million and 337 million respectively in 2024, with year-on-year changes of -7.17% and +6.3% [7] - The whiskey business began contributing revenue in Q1 2025, with the launch of "Bailide" blended whiskey [7] - The company is optimistic about the future growth of its whiskey business, contingent on successful sales operations and positive dealer order intentions [7]