Core Viewpoint - The China Chemical Engineering Tianchen Company has commenced the foundational design of the calcium ammonium nitrate project for the Keshan Group's green fertilizer initiative in Kenya, marking it as the world's first integrated project for "geothermal electricity to hydrogen/ammonia/fertilizer" [1] Group 1: Project Overview - The project aims to create a demonstration project driven by geothermal energy for the production of hydrogen, ammonia, and green fertilizers [1] - It represents a significant achievement in the deepening cooperation between China and Kenya in the fields of new energy and chemicals [1] Group 2: Technological and Economic Impact - The project will utilize local geothermal resources to produce green hydrogen through water electrolysis, capture carbon dioxide at geothermal wellheads, and produce nitrogen for green ammonia, urea, and calcium ammonium nitrate [1] - It is expected to enhance Kenya's self-sufficiency in fertilizer production, improve agricultural productivity, and promote local employment while driving the development of upstream and downstream industries [1] Group 3: Strategic Goals - The company plans to leverage this project to enhance its advantages in integrating green energy and chemicals, constructing green hydrogen models, and engineering design and technology integration [1] - This initiative aims to contribute to the development of clean energy in Africa and provide an innovative example for deepening cooperation under the Belt and Road Initiative in the East African region [1]

Core Points - The project is a green fertilizer and geothermal power station with an annual production capacity of 480,000 tons [2] - The total investment for the project is approximately $800 million [2] - This is the first green fertilizer production project by a Chinese company in Kenya, producing green ammonia, urea, and calcium ammonium nitrate [2]

Core Points - The project is a significant step in Kenya's green industrial transformation, showcasing the integration of energy, technology, and vision to drive national prosperity and create job opportunities [1][2] - The total investment for the project is approximately $800 million, which includes the construction of a green fertilizer plant and a 165 MW geothermal power station [1] - The project aims to produce 200,000 tons of green ammonia, 180,000 tons of urea, and 300,000 tons of calcium ammonium nitrate, addressing fertilizer supply instability and price volatility for farmers [1] Company Insights - Kaishan Group is committed to addressing Africa's food security issues by ensuring a stable supply of fertilizers while minimizing ecological damage caused by land reclamation [2] - The company plans to continue focusing on development opportunities in Africa and provide Chinese technological solutions for the continent's green energy transition [2] - Kaishan Group has been active in Kenya since 2019, successfully completing geothermal power projects and planning further developments in clean energy sectors such as hydrogen and methanol [2]

Core Insights - The project is a green fertilizer and geothermal power station with an annual production capacity of 480,000 tons, marking the first green fertilizer production initiative by a Chinese company in Kenya [1] Investment Overview - The total investment for the project is approximately $800 million, which will produce green ammonia, urea, and calcium ammonium nitrate [1] Strategic Importance - The project aims to utilize Kenya's abundant geothermal energy to produce fertilizers, addressing the long-standing issues of fertilizer supply instability and price volatility faced by farmers, thereby ensuring national food security and saving foreign exchange [1][1] - The project aligns with Kenya's national development strategy and is considered a crucial part of the country's transformation process [1] Company Perspective - The chairman of Kaishan Holding Group emphasized that the project will contribute to solving Africa's food security challenges by ensuring a stable supply of fertilizers [1]

Group 1: Fertilizer Import Overview - Ethiopia is the largest fertilizer importer in Africa, expected to purchase approximately 1.97 million tons of nitrogen-phosphorus compound fertilizers and urea in 2024, with over 90% of imports managed by the Ethiopian Agricultural Business Corporation (EABC) [1] - Kenya, as the largest economy in East Africa, will import 834,000 tons of fertilizers in 2024, with nitrogen-phosphorus-potassium (NPK) accounting for 25.17%, diammonium phosphate (DAP) 20.91%, and urea 15.44% [1] - Zambia is projected to import 797,000 tons of fertilizers in 2024, with urea making up the highest share at 36% [2] - Nigeria, the largest economy in West Africa, is expected to import 738,000 tons of fertilizers in 2024, with ammonium sulfate comprising 62.23% of imports [2] - Côte d'Ivoire will import 576,000 tons of fertilizers in 2024, with urea accounting for 31.29% and potassium chloride 23.66% [3] Group 2: Fertilizer Export and Processing - Kenya is expected to export 117,000 tons of fertilizers in 2024, representing 14% of its total imports [1] - Zambia will re-export 109,000 tons of fertilizers, which is 13.7% of its total imports [2] - Côte d'Ivoire's fertilizer re-exports are projected to total 212,000 tons, with most imports processed into compound fertilizers for domestic use or export to neighboring countries [3] Group 3: Key Companies Involved - In Ethiopia, the EABC is the primary entity responsible for fertilizer procurement and distribution [1] - Major companies involved in Kenya's fertilizer import and processing include CFAO Agriculture, MEA, ETG Export Trading Company, and Fertiplant East Africa [1] - In Zambia, key players include the Zambia National Commercial Company (NCZ), FSG Zambia, Zambian Fertilizers, and United Capital Fertilizers [2] - Nigeria's fertilizer industry is dominated by Notore, Indorama, and Dangote [2] - Côte d'Ivoire's fertilizer mixing companies include Agro West Africa, Seap-CI, Sea Invest, Solevo, and Yara [3]

Investment Rating - The report gives the company a "Recommended" rating for investment [4]. Core Views - The company has a solid competitive advantage in the compound fertilizer industry, supported by high-quality phosphate resources, which is expected to drive significant performance growth [4]. - The compound fertilizer industry is undergoing a reshuffle, with leading companies strengthening their market positions [29]. - The high demand for phosphate rock continues, and the company's production capacity is set to increase, enhancing revenue and profitability [51]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 2024A: 33.13 billion CNY, 2025E: 49.41 billion CNY, 2026E: 54.00 billion CNY, 2027E: 59.26 billion CNY, with growth rates of 2.15%, 49.14%, 9.19%, and 9.84% respectively [2]. - Net profit forecasts are: 2024A: 4.09 billion CNY, 2025E: 11.57 billion CNY, 2026E: 14.08 billion CNY, 2027E: 16.45 billion CNY, with growth rates of 57.67%, 182.78%, 21.73%, and 16.83% respectively [2]. - The diluted EPS is projected to be 0.42 CNY in 2024, increasing to 1.20 CNY in 2025, 1.46 CNY in 2026, and 1.71 CNY in 2027 [2]. Company Overview - The company has over 30 years of experience in the compound fertilizer sector and has established a comprehensive phosphate chemical industry chain [6]. - It is the first listed compound fertilizer company in China, with a production capacity of 1.91 million tons per year, ranking among the top in the domestic market [45]. - The company has a strong focus on R&D, with a significant number of patents and innovative technologies that enhance its product offerings [45][46]. Industry Dynamics - The compound fertilizer industry is experiencing a consolidation phase, with a focus on eliminating outdated production capacity and enhancing market concentration [29]. - The demand for new types of fertilizers is expected to grow, driven by the upgrading of agricultural products and the need for more efficient fertilizer use [36][40]. - The phosphate rock market remains tight, with the company planning to expand its production capacity significantly, which will support its revenue growth [51][57].

①化工新材料：核心增长引擎 公司化工新材料产品包括 聚碳酸酯（PC）、尼龙 6、己内酰胺、多元醇（正丁醇、辛醇、新戊二醇等）、有机硅材料和氟材料（六氟丙烯、聚全氟乙 丙烯、聚四氟乙烯、二氟甲烷等） 。报告期内， 己内酰胺·尼龙 6 一期工程 开车成功满负荷运行， 40万吨有机硅项目 顺利打通全流程， 24万吨乙烯 下游一体化项目 、 15 万吨丙酸等项目 有序推进， 30万吨双氧水装置 恢复生产。 报告期内， 化工新材料板块营收203.66亿元，同比增长26.83%，占总营收68.43% ，毛利率16%（同比+1个百分点） ②基础化工：价格承压，营收下滑 【DT新材料】 获悉，4月26日， 鲁西化工 发布公告，2025年第一季度，公司实现营业收入为72.90亿元，同比上升7.96%；归母净利润为4.13亿元， 同比下降27.30%；扣非归母净利润为3.84亿元，同比下降33.81%。 | | 本报告期 | 上年同期 | 本报告期比上年同 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 期增减(%) | | 营业收入(元) | 7,289,926,095.44 | 6,752,410,7 ...