拓普集团 20250821 摘要 拓普集团三季度收入预计增长 15%-20%，受益于问界 M8 全月量产、 特斯拉 Model YL 订单及海外 Model Y 减配版落地，以及极氪银河系列、 奇瑞等车型销量增长，9 月爬坡顺利或有更高弹性。 拓普集团通过规模化和轻资产运营转型，整体利润率有望提升至 10%以 上。预计三季度增速明显恢复，四季度受益于低基数和业务全面推进， 业绩有望超预期增长，单季利润或恢复至 9-10 亿元水平。 拓普集团在汽车零部件领域采取平台化策略，整合中小企业，快速提升 并购标的利润率并拓展客户渠道。同时，在空悬系统、EMB 和热管理领 域取得显著进展，总成份额达 20%-30%。 预计拓普集团 2025 年利润约为 30 亿元，但逐季表现提升，四季度可 能达到 9 亿多元。公司注重长期成长空间和品类扩张，液冷板块和整套 热管理体系具备巨大潜力。 拓普集团 2026 年利润预期接近 40 亿元，汽车业务市盈率预估为 20- 25 倍，对应市值约为 800 亿至 1,000 亿元。机器人业务市场规模预计 超过 500 亿元。 Q&A 拓普集团目前的经营状况如何？未来有哪些关键发展点？ 拓 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue of 18.854 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.33%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.252 billion yuan, up 10.63% year-on-year. The performance in Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 met expectations, with a focus on expanding lightweight and air suspension systems, as well as accelerating the development of its robotics business [2][3][6]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's revenue from various segments was as follows: air suspension systems (10.65 billion yuan, +29.52%), lightweight components (25.18 billion yuan, +30.95%), rubber business (40.60 billion yuan, +12.78%), cooling systems (50.72 billion yuan, -2.20%), and sealing systems (38.05 billion yuan, +4.72%) [3]. - For Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 4.359 billion yuan, down 2.50% year-on-year and 9.68% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 200 million yuan, down 21.84% year-on-year and 40.48% quarter-on-quarter. In Q1 2025, revenue reached 4.854 billion yuan, up 3.45% year-on-year and 11.37% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 403 million yuan, up 11.52% year-on-year and 101.46% quarter-on-quarter [2][4]. Profitability and Cost Management - The gross margin for Q4 2024 was 24.52%, an increase of 1.22 percentage points year-on-year and 2.07 percentage points quarter-on-quarter. The net profit margin for Q4 2024 was 4.58%, down 1.13 percentage points year-on-year and 2.37 percentage points quarter-on-quarter. For Q1 2025, the gross margin was 23.32%, up 0.91 percentage points year-on-year and down 1.20 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, while the net profit margin was 8.29%, up 0.60 percentage points year-on-year and 3.71 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [4][5]. - The company reported a total asset impairment of 296 million yuan in 2024, primarily due to inventory write-downs and long-term equity investment impairments [5]. Business Expansion and Strategic Initiatives - The company is accelerating the introduction of air suspension systems into the domestic passenger car market, with total orders amounting to 15.2 billion yuan, including 1.7 billion yuan for assembly products. The robotics business, particularly humanoid robots, is a core strategic focus, with plans to expand into components like harmonic reducers and sensors [3][6]. - Strategic partnerships have been established with companies such as Wuzhou Xinchun and Efort to enhance the production capabilities of the company's robotics products [3]. Future Outlook - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to 1.589 billion yuan and 1.807 billion yuan, respectively, with expected earnings per share of 1.21 yuan and 1.37 yuan. The expansion in air suspension, lightweight components, and robotics is anticipated to provide sustainable growth [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [3][9]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 26.6 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 35.02%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.00 billion yuan, up 39.52% year-on-year [5][11]. - The company's gross margin decreased by 2.10 percentage points to 20.80% in 2024, primarily due to the impact of a "price war" in the vehicle market and increased depreciation from new production capacity [2][5]. - The company is rapidly advancing its robot product line, diversifying its offerings, which is expected to create new growth avenues [2][6]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 72.48 billion yuan in Q4, a year-on-year increase of 30.63%, and a net profit of 7.67 billion yuan, up 38.47% year-on-year [5]. - The five main business lines—damping systems, interior functional components, chassis systems, automotive electronics, and thermal management systems—achieved revenue growth rates of 2.40%, 28.24%, 33.98%, 907.63%, and 38.24% respectively in 2024 [5][11]. - The automotive electronics segment saw a remarkable revenue increase of over 9 times, driven by the large-scale shipment of air suspension products [5][11]. Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 34.27 billion yuan, 41.85 billion yuan, and 50.48 billion yuan in 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 3.78 billion yuan, 4.62 billion yuan, and 5.57 billion yuan [9][11]. - The gross margin is expected to slightly decline to 20.09% in 2025 and further to 19.99% in 2026 [7][11]. - The company plans to expand its overseas market presence, with significant investments in production facilities in Thailand, Mexico, and Poland [5][9].

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·汽车零部件 中鼎股份（000887） 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 17,244 | 18,854 | 21,738 | 24,998 | 28,248 | | 同比（%） | 15.63 | 9.33 | 15.30 | 15.00 | 13.00 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 1,131 | 1,252 | 1,589 | 1,807 | 2,080 | | 同比（%） | 16.78 | 10.63 | 26.97 | 13.72 | 15.09 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.86 | 0.95 | 1.21 | 1.37 | 1.58 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 20.18 | 18.24 | 14.36 | 12.63 | 10.97 | [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 2025 年 04 月 3 ...