主要客户车型调整影响业绩，机器人业务 全面推进 核心观点 ⚫ 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 预测 2025-2027 年归母净利润为 35.38、42.86、51.17 亿元，可比公司 2025 年 PE 平均估值 35 倍，目标价 71.40 元，维持买入评级。 风险提示 机器人业务进展不及预期、乘用车行业销量低于预期、NVH 产品、内饰功能件产品、轻 量化底盘产品、热管理产品配套量低于预期、产品价格下降幅度超预期。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 19,701 | 26,600 | 33,461 | 41,551 | 49,344 | | 同比增长 (%) | 23.2% | 35.0% | 25.8% | 24.2% | 18.8% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 2,476 | 3,420 | 4,005 | 4,853 | 5,795 | | 同比增长 (%) | 25.2% | 38.1% | 17.1% | 21.2% | 1 ...

Group 1 - The company reported Q1 2025 revenue of approximately 5.768 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 1.40% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of about 20.43%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was approximately 565 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of about 12.39% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of about 26.23% [1] - Customer demand experienced fluctuations, leading to short-term performance pressure. In Q1 2025, Tesla's production was approximately 373,200 units, a year-on-year decrease of about 20.45%. In contrast, BYD's production increased by approximately 73.54% year-on-year to about 1,062,600 units [2] - The company's gross margin was approximately 19.89%, a year-on-year decrease of about 2.54 percentage points, while the net profit margin was approximately 9.81%, a year-on-year decrease of about 1.58 percentage points. The total expense ratio for Q1 2025 was approximately 10.52%, a year-on-year increase of about 1.21 percentage points and a quarter-on-quarter increase of about 2.16 percentage points [3] Group 2 - The company is expanding its customer base and product categories, with traditional businesses progressing steadily. The automotive electronics segment is accelerating, and the robotics business is opening new growth opportunities. Revenue projections for 2025 to 2027 are approximately 33.17 billion yuan, 40.30 billion yuan, and 50.61 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of approximately 24.7%, 21.5%, and 25.6% respectively [4] - The net profit projections for the same period are approximately 3.64 billion yuan, 4.49 billion yuan, and 5.62 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of approximately 21.2%, 23.4%, and 25.1% respectively. As of April 30, 2025, the stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of approximately 25.0 times, 20.2 times, and 16.2 times for 2025 to 2027 [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [3][9]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 26.6 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 35.02%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.00 billion yuan, up 39.52% year-on-year [5][11]. - The company's gross margin decreased by 2.10 percentage points to 20.80% in 2024, primarily due to the impact of a "price war" in the vehicle market and increased depreciation from new production capacity [2][5]. - The company is rapidly advancing its robot product line, diversifying its offerings, which is expected to create new growth avenues [2][6]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 72.48 billion yuan in Q4, a year-on-year increase of 30.63%, and a net profit of 7.67 billion yuan, up 38.47% year-on-year [5]. - The five main business lines—damping systems, interior functional components, chassis systems, automotive electronics, and thermal management systems—achieved revenue growth rates of 2.40%, 28.24%, 33.98%, 907.63%, and 38.24% respectively in 2024 [5][11]. - The automotive electronics segment saw a remarkable revenue increase of over 9 times, driven by the large-scale shipment of air suspension products [5][11]. Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 34.27 billion yuan, 41.85 billion yuan, and 50.48 billion yuan in 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 3.78 billion yuan, 4.62 billion yuan, and 5.57 billion yuan [9][11]. - The gross margin is expected to slightly decline to 20.09% in 2025 and further to 19.99% in 2026 [7][11]. - The company plans to expand its overseas market presence, with significant investments in production facilities in Thailand, Mexico, and Poland [5][9].